Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

icesnowfrost

DOCARCH wrote: »

No real change with 00z, output not dramatically different than yesterdays runs with Atlantic wining by Thursday.

ME forecast/outlook has caught up this morning:

WEDNESDAY: Cold again for much of the country, but looking milder in the southwest and south with increasing cloud, strengthening southeast winds and some rain. Elsewhere it will probably stay mainly dry with sunny spells. Present indications are that rain will gradually spread northwards across the country on Wednesday night, possibly falling as sleet or hill snow over northern parts.

FURTHER OUTLOOK: Uncertain, with the boundary between cold air to the north and mild air to the south near or over Ireland.

Why can't we just get a funkin break and let the beast from the east do his job feckin mister mild from the west grrrrrrrrr 😡

icesnowfrost

DOCARCH wrote: »

No real change with 00z, output not dramatically different than yesterdays runs with Atlantic wining by Thursday.

ME forecast/outlook has caught up this morning:

WEDNESDAY: Cold again for much of the country, but looking milder in the southwest and south with increasing cloud, strengthening southeast winds and some rain. Elsewhere it will probably stay mainly dry with sunny spells. Present indications are that rain will gradually spread northwards across the country on Wednesday night, possibly falling as sleet or hill snow over northern parts.

FURTHER OUTLOOK: Uncertain, with the boundary between cold air to the north and mild air to the south near or over Ireland.

Why can't we just get a funkin break and let the beast from the east do his job feckin mister mild from the west grrrrrrrrr 😡

M.T. Cranium

The big story now appears to be potential for a severe windstorm in two phases around Friday and Sunday (of next weekend). Cold will probably be expelled from east by Thursday mid-day at latest. This is what happens when the cold air pokes a stick into the bear's den, I guess.

whitebriar

Yeah,the 0z ecm has cancelled everything for Ireland next week bar rain.

Its also an undermining of public confidence in met eireann as this shows up the folly of using one model unchanged in what they know to be huge uncertainty.
They'd be better off sticking to 3 days at times like these.
They're falling foul of this too often.

Things could change but I doubt it to be honest as what happens next week depends on what's happening now and its not playing ball .
Currently the outcome has the potential to wipe out the last weeks thread discussion as if it was a dream.
Let's see.

DOCARCH

whitebriar wrote: »

Its also an undermining of public confidence in met eireann as this shows up the folly of using one model unchanged in what they know to be huge uncertainty.

In fairness, they never really ramped possibilty of snow. Bear in mind it was not just the ECM showing a potential cold spell - there was some model agreement for a time (albeit in FI). They are pretty much looking at the same models/data we are.

Anyway, it's still going to be cold Monday, Tuesday and Wedneday - with the possibility of few wintry showers on Tuesday for the east (I'd suggest).

Thursday is still around 120 hours away - a long time in the weather world!

whitebriar

DOCARCH wrote: »

In fairness, they never really ramped possibilty of snow. Bear in mind it was not just the ECM showing a potential cold spell - there was some model agreement for a time (albeit in FI). They are pretty much looking at the same models/data we are.

Anyway, it's still going to be cold Monday, Tuesday and Wedneday - with the possibility of few wintry showers on Tuesday for the east (I'd suggest).

Thursday is still around 120 hours away - a long time in the weather world!

Doc,they had snow on yesterday's tv maps and mentioned sleet and snow showers in the east and north several times in outlooks in the past few days.
They also road mapped next week as max 2 to 4c
The rsa also sent out warning emails based on this.

They have a lot more raw data than us.
What was missing and would have been justified for next weekand that's two words Extreme uncertainty.

As I type,the 755 am is as usual a mirror of the 0z ecm and very different to yesterday except they are now going into uncertainty detail latest indications mild will win etc.

Speak Now

whitebriar wrote: »

Doc,they had snow on yesterday's tv maps and mentioned sleet and snow showers in the east and north several times in outlooks in the past few days.
They also road mapped next week as max 2 to 4c
The rsa also sent out warning emails based on this.

They have a lot more raw data than us.
What was missing and would have been justified for next weekand that's two words Extreme uncertainty.

As I type,the 755 am is as usual a mirror of the 0z ecm and very different to yesterday except they are now going into uncertainty detail latest indications mild will win etc.

another failed FI easterly. Honestly who's surprised. we knew shortwaves would rare their ugly heads. always have to laugh at the met eireann bashing,forecasting will never be nowcasting. No one gets it right the whole time and they get it right more often than most.

DOCARCH

whitebriar wrote: »

Doc,they had snow on yesterday's tv maps and mentioned sleet and snow showers in the east and north several times in outlooks in the past few days.

A couple of years ago I visited the ME HQ in Glasnevin. Beside the door to the computer/IT room there was also a door with the nameplate 'crystal balls'. They have obvioulsy lost the key to that door! :rolleyes:

You were pretty confident yourself of snow for next week up until yesterday?

Models change/forecasts change.

DOCARCH

06z GFS not much different to earlier runs. If anything, marginally less cold again. There were -6c uppers, in the 12z run, for Tuesday, breiefly, along the east coast. 06z reduces that to -4c uppers.

nacho libre

It looks as if Su Campu was right about the effects of the block being short lived. I recall him saying some time ago that he thought our weather in early winter would consist of cool periods giving way to some milder interludes. The pattern so for this December seems to be like that. I just hope his thoughts about the rest of the winter are incorrect, but i also recall in February last year he dismissed the idea of blocking to the north west, when matt hugo, and the 32 day ecm, along with others were indicating that would happen. Anyway it's a pity he has chosen to close his account, as his sober analysis of synoptics will be missed.

Nabber

You guys always walk yourselves into these 'downgrades'

Even the most level headed and informative of ye ramp to no end A mild FI chart is still FI. So keep the faith guys.

I look forward to the next round. When logic goes out the window and the rollercoaster starts again.

maquiladora

I hope my words of warning over the past few days helped to lower expectations. Hate seeing people having their snow dreams crushed!

Anyway, a long winter ahead, though the next cold potential could well be a good while away.

Also, the Met Eireann bashing above is quite pathetic.

derekon

maquiladora wrote: »

I hope my words of warning over the past few days helped to lower expectations. Hate seeing people having their snow dreams crushed!

Anyway, a long winter ahead, though the next cold potential could well be a good while away.

Also, the Met Eireann bashing above is quite pathetic.

I think those are fair points Maquiladora - human nature means a lot of us fall into the trap of seeing what we want to see.

I think the huge lesson here for all weather watchers is not to believe any snow hype until the snow is about +48 hours out. The Atlantic's influence on Ireland's weather should never be underestimated. The Atlantic Ocean is the primary driver of Ireland's weather and lets never forget that.

D

BLIZZARD7

maquiladora wrote: »

I hope my words of warning over the past few days helped to lower expectations. Hate seeing people having their snow dreams crushed!

Anyway, a long winter ahead, though the next cold potential could well be a good while away.

Also, the Met Eireann bashing above is quite pathetic.

Well I have to say fair play maq, you seem to have got it right for this week despite the models showing a very different outllook at times.

I still suspect we are going to see short term changes that may surprise us but we also may not.

Still alot of uncertainty regarding the end of the week but the UKMO is one of my last straws to clutch. Its just showing one of the many scenarios we may end up with.

Although I dont agree with the next cold spell potential being a long time away, It might be but equally it maybe only be 8-10 days away..who knows?

Also I dont agree with met bashing but it certainly does seem like they only use the ECM and the ECM alone.




Dan

Sponge Bob

UKMO Fax now pushing those fronts back out into the Atlantic today where they were encroaching over us by the run yesterday...I'd say 100miles further west today.



Still a battleground near Ireland next week. No epic anything though ....crisp and sunny would be nice.

Vudgie

maquiladora wrote: »

I hope my words of warning over the past few days helped to lower expectations. Hate seeing people having their snow dreams crushed!

Anyway, a long winter ahead, though the next cold potential could well be a good while away.

Also, the Met Eireann bashing above is quite pathetic.

You have produced some excellent and level headed analysis this last week keep up the good work...... My go to poster for sensible forecasting in su campu's absence!!!!

Deep Easterly

derekon wrote: »

human nature means a lot of us fall into the trap of seeing what we want to see.

That is not my idea of human nature, quite the opposite in fact. If people want to follow the herd and listen to trash, despite good advice not to do so, then let them off.

What we have seen on here the last 2/3 weeks or so is voices of reason being dismissed, ignored, ridiculed, in extreme cases, attacked and accused of being 'negative' buzz killers, unknowledgeable etc while the ramp merchants tightened their grip by giving people hope where none really existed.

What I find astonishing is that some have claimed that public confidence the met should be questioned while they themselves were so quick to dismiss sensible posts on here in an effort to keep this baseless hype fed and nurtured. This is a new low IMO that just smacks of overwhelming hypocrisy.

whitebriar

DOCARCH wrote: »

A couple of years ago I visited the ME HQ in Glasnevin. Beside the door to the computer/IT room there was also a door with the nameplate 'crystal balls'. They have obvioulsy lost the key to that door! :rolleyes:

You were pretty confident yourself of snow for next week up until yesterday?

Models change/forecasts change.

No ,I wasn't.Any mention of snow ,I made was what a particular run would give,I just looked through my 34 posts and I kept the wait and see line and wasn't hysteric.

And no need for the roll eyes either,it's the easiest thing in the world to forecast no snow because 9 out of ten times you'll be right.
It's the toughest thing in the world to call snow especially in marginal situations.

And as regards what Maq said,why is constructive criticism called bashing round these parts anyway? (one post..seriously? Are they some holy grail now beyond any criticism?)

Fact of the matter is,the genie is out of the bottle where I personally have heard people going on about snow because met eireann said it yesterday and the day before.

Damned if they do and damned if they don't of course,but the UK met service have been very slow to ramp this one up.

I still don't know what's going to happen next week and I do think,the present indications phrase and the word uncertainty should have been much more used 48 hrs ago.
It's going to be used a lot this week by the looks of things.

pistolpetes11

The Irish Met use blend of 5 different models :

ECMWF, UKMO, GME, Hirlam, Harmonie

5500

Deep Easterly wrote: »

What we have seen on here the last 2/3 weeks or so is voices of reason being dismissed, ignored, ridiculed, in extreme cases, attacked and accused of being 'negative' buzz killers, unknowledgeable etc while the ramp merchants tightened their grip by giving people hope where none really existed.

What I find astonishing is that some have claimed that public confidence the met should be questioned while they themselves were so quick to dismiss sensible posts on here in an effort to keep this baseless hype fed and nurtured. This is a new low IMO that just smacks of overwhelming hypocrisy.

Isnt that the joys of internet forums though! There's always going to be a large portion of disagreement and waffle but at the end of the day there's no point in taking any of it personally or feeling the need to close an account over it ect.

I know little about the models but over the past few years I have enjoy'd reading both posts about ramps and cold bashing too so hopefully people can take a step back and take things with a pinch of salt at times too.

Either ways I and Im sure alot of others appreciate the input and knowledge that is given by members here and hope they continue to do so in the future!

Now bring on the next coldspell!

BLIZZARD7

Deep Easterly wrote: »

That is not my idea of human nature, quite the opposite in fact. If people want to follow the herd and listen to trash, despite good advice not to do so, then let them off.

What we have seen on here the last 2/3 weeks or so is voices of reason being dismissed, ignored, ridiculed, in extreme cases, attacked and accused of being 'negative' buzz killers, unknowledgeable etc while the ramp merchants tightened their grip by giving people hope where none really existed.

What I find astonishing is that some have claimed that public confidence the met should be questioned while they themselves were so quick to dismiss sensible posts on here in an effort to keep this baseless hype fed and nurtured. This is a new low IMO that just smacks of overwhelming hypocrisy.

No hope existed? I dont agree with that at all, the people calling for a breakdown early and a weak cold spell were mostly going against what the models were showing. The models have been showing huge potential and alot of hope. All it took was one shortwave to scupper things. This may still change though and we are seeing short term changes so confidence is low in my opinion.





Dan

Sponge Bob

12z GFS UPGRADE for the milds. Lets see how the rest of the run rolls out.

At this rate no -8 Uppers can be expected over the UK never mind over us.

Caff Caff

WRONG THREAD PEOPLE!! TECHNICAL DISCUSSION ONLY... and do take time to spell check.

Well, it's going how some or most expected for now but the trend still could work out later in the winter. We may still see snow next week but as we progress through the next few models we will have a better idea. As someone already mentioned, the only certainty of snow is when we actually see it falling. At least it's frosty! I still hold firm that greater potential for snow will be after Christmas...perhaps mid-late Jan.

Roll on models

snaps

seems even the cold now is dissapearing next week. looks like we will be in a southerly wind direction form as early as monday. Today has been a gorgeous day. shame.

Sponge Bob

2 back to back bomb cyclones for the end of next week. The GFS models bombs in December quite well.

You can see both here, more cyclones in FI

Weathering

Sponge Bob wrote: »

2 back to back bomb cyclones for the end of next week. The GFS models bombs in December quite well.

You can see both here, more cyclones in FI

as we all know,going on history with the charts that won't materialise so im going to save myself the bother now and dismiss it

srmambo

That's a mighty fine chart Sponge Bob, but what temperatures does that cyclone entail? Also personally the models going back to the mild muck is what makes me really hate winter with the expectations and the being put down and kicked in the teeth, but I will hold out some hope for some snow in January based on the fact that I saw some hail in October XD

Sponge Bob

Weathering wrote: »

as we all know,going on history with the charts that won't materialise so im going to save myself the bother now and dismiss it

Going on last December the GFS had a remarkable handle on Bombs so I'll just dismiss your dismissal m'Kay

Someone asked nicely for temps, same as today ish.

maw368

The MO are still forecasting below average temps for the whole of December, I don't understand all this talk of mild. Do people mean mild as in not as bad as winter 2010? MO updated forecast for the UK today has mopstly below average temps for rest of December with possible significant snow next week.

SO there doesn't seem to be any unanimous decision. People are saying that those voting mild were right anf those voting cold are wrong, do not seem to be definite yet. Most here say that beyond a week ois unreliable ane prone to change. Well we have a cold spell up until about next Thursday and then supposedly all this warm weather, well that would be according to most, an unreliable time frame to be confident and the MO still predicting below average and significant snow today must show there is still ambiguity and no certainty, showing that those supporting cold have not been delusional, ramping and rediculous as suggested in the last few pages. Nothing is certain yet and still too far away to know for sure.

maw368

UK Outlook for Thursday 13 Dec 2012 to Saturday 22 Dec 2012:

Southern, eastern and some central areas are likely to see a continuation of mostly sunny conditions through Thursday but staying cold with overnight frost and wintry showers in places. Elsewhere, the weather is expected to turn more unsettled but less cold, with these conditions edging north and east through Friday. This could give significant snowfall in places at first, particularly over hills. Winds will be initially light but it will turn windier from the southwest. Through the remainder of the period, it is likely to remain unsettled and windy in all areas with outbreaks of rain, heaviest in the south west. Temperatures are expected to be close to or just below the seasonal average with a continued risk of snow in places, mainly on higher ground from the midlands northwards.
Updated: 1104 on Sat 8 Dec 2012