Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

maw368

They do mention turning less cold, but lately it has been significantly cold as anything below zero for most of the UK is below average and it has been reaching well below average for weeks for much of the country. So less cold just means not as significant but they have said it will still probably be below or near average. Sorry but if the temps are below average then that can't really be defined as mild, unless you are comparing with 2010.

srmambo

850 hpa temperatures low on Monday to Thursday (GFS)

Monday

[IMG][/img]

Thursday

catch.23

I think it is important to point out here that while cold weather was forecast , there were at max 1/2 model runs showing widespread snowfall at low levels close than 200hrs. Not exactly reliable, so if you're disappointed you've only yourself to blame really!

Would there be anything to be said for a dedicated thread (strictly enforced) where only forecasts and model output closer than 96hrs could be discussed?! A more serious one?!!!

derekon

Weathering wrote: »

Not really. In Donegal we have a climate more akin to nw england or sw scotland as opposed to the se or east of Ireland. fact

And the east coast of Ireland, in particular Dublin and north of the city, has a slightly colder climate than the southwest of England (Devon and Cornwall).

D

Elmer Blooker

FURTHER OUTLOOK: Uncertain, with the boundary between cold air to the north and mild air to the south near or over Ireland.

Where are ME getting this from? This looks like yesterday's forecast but it was issued only two hours ago. What's uncertain about the Atlantic kicking the door in?
Maybe they had their staff xmas party last night.

derekon

Latest comments from Joe Bastari on Twitter in reply to UK poster Matt Bradshaw:

Matt: Joe, will the UK also have a harsh winter along with the rest of Europe?
Joe B: Europe winter will be colder than last 3, perhaps coldest since 62-63.

He will be posting his thoughts on Weatherbell Premium within the hour.

Joe Bastardi - a man whose views should be held in high regard or an out and out cold ramper?

http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi


D

Deep Easterly

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

No hope existed? I dont agree with that at all, the people calling for a breakdown early and a weak cold spell were mostly going against what the models were showing. The models have been showing huge potential and alot of hope.

Yes, but those that went against the models proved to be right in the end. In any case, apart from one or 2 isolated runs, the models never really showed any huge potential. All they showed was a continuation of the rut we are currently in.

BLIZZARD7

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Yes, but those that went against the models proved to be right in the end. In any case, apart from one or 2 isolated runs, the models never really showed any huge potential. All they showed was a continuation of the rut we are currently in.

Yes but they werent right because they went against the models, they always had high enough odds as 9 times out of 10 we get mild weather here.

And it was alot more than one or two isolated runs. rut? I think we are doing just fine for a week into winter, unless you prefer mild damp weather? There is still huge potential at the moment but current output just dosent show us realising that potential.

On tonights ECM 12z, if that low out in the atlantic at +120hrs moves 300 or 400 miles further south then we will have a very different outlook- A very snowy one at that.

Also I know it wasnt you Deep Easterly who said it but to the person who questioned where met eireann got their latest forecast- look at the models, they are showing exactly as described by the met. I.E possible battleground over Ireland with alot of uncertainty beyond +72hrs to +96hrs.





Dan

Louthsnow

suprize suprize, your all wrong again! the ecm says snow again tonite!




MOD NOTE

AND YOUR OUT OF HERE

BANNED

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Louthsnow wrote: »

suprize suprize, your all wrong again! the ecm says snow again tonite!

Thats not the 12z chart, for a start today is saturday ! lol

snaps

Louthsnow wrote: »

suprize suprize, your all wrong again! the ecm says snow again tonite!

were? That's the 18th December in FI land. Also the air is coming from a north west/north direction polar maritime. Nothing major there at all. Same as we've been getting. Cold and wet.

snaps

Louthsnow wrote: »

suprize suprize, your all wrong again! the ecm says snow again tonite!

where did these charts come from? The dates/days are all wrong. Saturday isn't the 18th, and today is not Wednesday!

maquiladora

The thing is, back a few days ago, during all the excitement, you could see the models showing a strong ridge and brilliant blocking which led to some great looking FI charts. That high pressure is absolutely key. The Atlantic is the powerful archnemisis of the potential cold spell. We live on its doorstep, without that blocking we don't stand a chance. So then what happened was you could see the ridge getting squeezed more and more on each run, a progessive downgrading started rather than a flipflopping, and once it kept showing a weaker ridge every six hours I knew it was probably going to be game over for this round.

Looking forward to the next round, hopefully we won't have to wait too long.

M.T. Cranium

Some uncertainty remains (thus the ME discussion) because some ensemble members as well as the GEM model are going into a battleground scenario rather than the fast mild breakdown -- it may be somewhat underappreciated how cold the air mass may become despite the lack of actual "easterly" and this is probably concerning the people with long memories of slow to develop Atlantic breakdowns in the distant past (before the modern warming in other words). Personally I would be more concerned about the 50-knot wind gradients and other trivia, showing up here and there on model runs. The GEM scenario at 12z was odd because normally the GEM is the most progressive of models, yet it was refusing to bring the mild air in through 144h and developing quite an easterly gradient as a result. Book not quite closed on this yet, but the wind potential seems to be the only real story now.

BEASTERLY

The game seems to be over for this week, but not in the long term. The last few frames of the ECM builds heights back north and west. GFS starts to do this around the 180 hour mark. I still believe potential for a cold outbreak is there, hopefully with enough rolls of the dice luck will eventually fall in our favour. We are in a relatively promising position for the time of year in my opinion.

pistolpetes11

The low is going to undercut the block here

Mr CJ

Are we going to get a clear night do you think on Thusday 13th for Geminids? One clear night is not much to ask for and will give everyone a spectacular view. The last major one was cloudy so lets hope this night will be clear, what do you think?

Duiske

Mr CJ wrote: »

Are we going to get a clear night do you think on Thusday 13th for Geminids? One clear night is not much to ask for and will give everyone a spectacular view. The last major one was cloudy so lets hope this night will be clear, what do you think?

Things could well change, but latest GFS charts for Thursday night give virtually no chance of clear skies, well maybe a small chance in the West from about 2am on. Early Thursday night is basically just rain across the country, and some of it pretty heavy.

Elmer Blooker

catch.23 wrote: »

What is uncertain about it is the fact that it's still in FI. Met Eireann unlike the majority on here aren't going to preach an uncertain forecast like it's gospel.

And people should note that they have better accuracy than any internet forum (as they have better data).

As expected ME are now forecasting what we knew all along - Thursday 7-10c southerly winds

Weathering

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

As expected ME are now forecasting what we knew all along - Thursday 7-10c southerly winds[/QUO

Utterly disgusting ain't it. My god we have to suffer so much!!!

Deep Easterly

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Rut? I think we are doing just fine for a week into winter, unless you prefer mild damp weather?

Yes, rut. I am not sure what is so interesting about the present weather as to say that it is grand. If it was a toss up between mild damp weather or cold damp weather, which is basically what we have suffered over the last few months, then I'll take the mild and damp anytime.

M.T. Cranium

If the ECM looks anything like this new GFS run, there will be a mass serving of crow for breakfast. Crazy models, now the GFS wants to go back to prolonged cold and east winds. We'll see if the GEM has this same idea in a few minutes, then the wait begins for adult supervision, although even Grandpa goes nuts the odd time (as with that full-on easterly on ECM last week).

We may all need rehab at this rate.

Weathering

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

If the ECM looks anything like this new GFS run, there will be a mass serving of crow for breakfast. Crazy models, now the GFS wants to go back to prolonged cold and east winds. We'll see if the GEM has this same idea in a few minutes, then the wait begins for adult supervision, although even Grandpa goes nuts the odd time (as with that full-on easterly on ECM last week).

We may all need rehab at this rate.

What? This is absolute madness. I've never seen the models as crazy. So, there is a slim slim chance that things could reverse to the cold Fc? Brilliant I love it
Thanks for the update,much obliged

icesnowfrost

Thanks M.T for the little ray of hope.

Weathering

Anyone seen the GEM model? looking promising or what?

M.T. Cranium

GFS while slower to break down the cold is still only giving a marginal snow risk and that mainly north of Dublin to Donegal Bay (and higher elevations south of that). GEM had this slow breakdown earlier (at 12z) and has now somewhat backed away and it retains the major wind event for Friday as part of the menu. By the way, nobody looked at the JMA earlier, I just had a look as I'm waiting for the ECM, and the 12z JMA had an absolute howler of a windstorm on Friday. NOGAPS also has some significant gradients nearby.

I can't even guess what turn the ECM will take, but we'll know about an hour from now.

snaps

I'm no way professional but all I can see from both gfs and the ecm (not currently fully rolled) is southerly winds bringing air up from Spain and north Africa.

M.T. Cranium

The ECM is also rather slow with the breakdown now, this probably means that temperatures are going to creep upwards very slowly from their lowest point mid-week and snow could develop on higher ground in the north -- winds will not be southerly if these maps verify, the air flow will be about 45 degrees across the isobars from high to low and the flow is SE so that implies an east wind. Anyway, I've come up with the perfect solution, take a week off. (just kidding)

Redsunset

I just had a look at all 50 Ecm ensembles members.
only one showing something interesting so no confidence whatsoever.
Bit like that Dumb and Dumber vid in ramping thread.
1 in a million chance of coming off with the undercut for Friday. Blue line is -6 upper air at 850ha boundary line.
Here it is.



Embrace the Atlantic folks.

That is all.

Redsunset

I have put 0-120hrs only in thread title.

While the Fantasy Island time period is debatable in certain synoptic episodes. Now being a good example. I feel it helps to differentiate between the two threads.

So 120hrs or 5 days is plenty to talk about. Bar picking out trends, the rest is pie in the sky for details.