Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

catch.23

Met Eireann have posted up an interesting report here if anyones interested.

Elmer Blooker

derekon wrote: »

Dare I even suggest that we could be in for one of those mild mucky winters that we experienced year on year from 2002 to 2008 ? :mad:

Or should we have a wee bit of hope for 2013?

D

I for one haven't thrown in the towel yet. We may not have seen the last of that big anticyclone to the NE. I find that big winter anticyclones can be very persistent and can weaken and re establish in more or less the same location. Last year we had that big Azores that haunted us for months.
I remember winter 91/2 when big anticyclones hung around in the vicinity of Ireland for weeks giving that dreadful anticyclonic gloom.
If I said look at the charts for 46-7 I'd be ramping but in Dec there was blocking over N.Europe which disappeared only to return

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1992/Rrea00119920127.gif

cherryghost

catch.23 wrote: »

Met Eireann have posted up an interesting report here if anyones interested.

Unfortunate file name :pac:

red_bairn

cherryghost wrote: »

Unfortunate file name :pac:

yeah, that was noted on here before.

Gonzo

unfortunately looking at the charts are really depressing and smells of last winter all over again with a roaring atlantic back in full charge. Hopefully something will happen in January but it looks almost safe to say that this December is finished with.

Kippure

Gonzo wrote: »

unfortunately looking at the charts are really depressing and smells of last winter all over again with a roaring atlantic back in full charge. Hopefully something will happen in January but it looks almost safe to say that this December is finished with.

Strat warming.......some good runs coming next week.....

icesnowfrost

Kippure wrote: »

Strat warming.......some good runs coming next week.....

Wat does that mean?

Lucreto

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Wat does that mean?

There is a topic further down the page that answers your question

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056803618

Sponge Bob

Models have settled on a run of above average but not exceptionally mild weather from now to the end of the year. The strat warming ( if it develops) could have a cooling effect from the end of the year onwards. Not this month from the look of it.

Nabber

Not much happening in the 120hr frame.
But the model that has been ramping this winter is showing signs of a slight change.
All tho most models agree that the Atlantic will win out again. If the Russian high works its way westward we could have a day in the life of a battle ground. Clutching at straws. But it's gone quiet now so some straw clutching might be the thing to do

Sponge Bob

Posted in this very thread 25 11 2012 by Pistolpetes on request of and on behalf of > CLICK HERE NOW TO SEE WHO!!!!!).


Needless to say it was wrong and the Atlantic triumphed so far.

A very cold period of weather is about to begin for Ireland in a pattern that will lock us in to a broadly northeasterly flow. We know this because an arc of above normal pressure will form involving a Greenland high and the Artic high pressure. This is a pattern the Atlantic will find very hard to break.It's one pattern with potential long longevity (weeks rather than days). This could be just as bad 2010 and the change will be a bit more gradual. Harsh frosts and ice will at first occur at night but through next weekend this will become a daytime problem as well. Temperatures really struggling above freezing if at all. "Ice days" are likely - that is where the temperature does not rise above freezing. Exceptionally cold nights. Temperatures as low as -7 or -8c inland is a probability not a possibility. Snow showers are likely on windward coasts alternating between east and north coasts. There is the added risk of Atlantic fronts coming up against this air at times. When this occurs snow is likely and on frozen ground this will settle. Most at risk of this element is the west and south west.

The cold weather will begin on Tuesday night with a sharp frost.

catch.23

You might point out that it wasn't pistolpetes forecast and that he was merely posting it on behalf of someone else.

maquiladora

Nothing interesting on any of the models for 0-120.

Wouldn't be expecting that to change any time soon either.

pistolpetes11

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Posted in this very thread 25 11 2012 by Pistolpetes.


Needless to say it was wrong and the Atlantic triumphed so far.

Em what has this got to do with anything at all that might be coming up ?

ninebeanrows

maquiladora wrote: »

Nothing interesting on any of the models for 0-120.

Wouldn't be expecting that to change any time soon either.

Ohh you didn't Maq:D

Changes are a foot. Possibly major changes. Cold and snow before Christmas is possible, although at this point i'd rank it near ~30%.

A rollercoaster 24-36hrs of mode watching ahead, and the game changes happen from 0-120hrs

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

Ohh you didn't Maq:D

Changes are a foot. Possibly major changes. Cold and snow before Christmas is possible, although at this point i'd rank it near ~30%.

A rollercoaster 24-36hrs of mode watching ahead, and the game changes happen from 0-120hrs

I'm just being realistic. :P We can hope for more interesting things to appear, but at the moment, those things don't actually exist in any of the model output at the moment.

davidsr20

Going by mts short forecast this morning were back to normal Irish weather,lets hope he's rite about his original jan/feb prediction

ninebeanrows

maquiladora wrote: »

I'm just being realistic. :P We can hope for more interesting things to appear, but at the moment, those things don't actually exist in any of the model output at the moment.

I predict infrastructural crippling blizzards (especially inland and on high ground) towards the end of the new week/weekend.

You heard it here first. **

(** It is an outside possibility but something i am watching, 10-20% poss)

Sponge Bob

Weathercheck wrote: »

. Cold and snow before Christmas is possible, although at this point i'd rank it near ~30%.

Weathercheck wrote: »

(** It is an outside possibility but something i am watching, 10-20% poss)

And in what precisely which model do you see any of these 10% 20% 30% Blizzards ??????

Sponge Bob

12z ECM rolling out. Rather benign looking uppers in these charts

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

I predict infrastructural crippling blizzards (especially inland and on high ground) towards the end of the new week/weekend.

You heard it here first. **

(** It is an outside possibility but something i am watching, 10-20% poss)

Have you been having a few early Christmas drinks?

ninebeanrows

maquiladora wrote: »

Have you been having a few early Christmas drinks?

A battleground blizzard is not far away MAQ

Throw a low somwhere in that midsection and we pull in some very cold uppers from the north and east.

Sponge Bob

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Is there even a chance for a cold frosty morning Christmas Day

In the ECM, no. A stormy day now. But that should change yet again towards the mid week.

Weathering

BBC weather for the week ahead http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xJR62e16dGg
A lot of uncertainty

tylercollins

yellowlabrador

tylercollins wrote: »

I think that according to the doomers, you need to turn those 9's around.

derekon

Latest update from Matt Hugo's Twitter account:

"To finalise the seasonal models for this year, the EUROSIP model has updated and shows a zonal picture for the rest of the winter".

He also points out that wind and rain could be a concern over the Christmas period and into the new year.

http://twitter.com/matthugo81

D

Birdnuts

derekon wrote: »

Latest update from Matt Hugo's Twitter account:

"To finalise the seasonal models for this year, the EUROSIP model has updated and shows a zonal picture for the rest of the winter".

He also points out that wind and rain could be a concern over the Christmas period and into the new year.

http://twitter.com/matthugo81

D

I think Matt has called this right - I haven't seen the Atlantic so active on the model runs at this time of year for many winters now.

mickger844posts

When the modelled cold spell didn't happen last week and the Atlantic took over it has been no surprise the way the month has turned out. Models offer no crumbs of hope for cold fans today so we look at possible storms for something interesting. I feel we will see a decent storm before the end of the year and better chances of cold in January.

BEASTERLY

Birdnuts wrote: »

I think Matt has called this right - I haven't seen the Atlantic so active on the model runs at this time of year for many winters now.

Really, within 120 hours all we are seeing is a stalling low as it comes up against a Russian block, NAO is neutral set to dip negative again for a few days. FI is looking very zonal alright but thats for another thread.

You also have a very short memory. Here is an ECM run from this day last year. Now this is zonal!! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?jour=17&mois=12&annee=2011&heure=12&archive=1&mode=1&ech=72&map=0

Warning: Above link may cause nightmares!