Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

Birdnuts

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Really, within 120 hours all we are seeing is a stalling low as it comes up against a Russian block, NAO is neutral set to dip negative again for a few days. FI is looking very zonal alright but thats for another thread.

You also have a very short memory. Here is an ECM run from this day last year. Now this is zonal!! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?jour=17&mois=12&annee=2011&heure=12&archive=1&mode=1&ech=72&map=0

Warning: Above link may cause nightmares!

The AH was parked alot closer to Ireland though - more in Biscay then what is progged on the current model runs. The latter is more "classically" zonal IMO.

snaps

that low stalling is making things very wet here in the west. Big differences between gfs and ecm for Christmas today. Gfs puts us in a northely, ecm puts us in a south westerly.

Weathering

We could see flooding. Matthew Hugo on twitter is predicting bad flooding in sw England. Yeah that Gfs run could bring wintry showers on the big day to us in NW

snaps

The amount of water standing around here after yesterdays rain is unreal. Whole fields flooded. Hopefully there wont be too much more tonight.

Musicman2000

An update by M.T over on Netweather

My updated look at index values suggests another brief shot of sub-freezing temperatures around 4-7 Jan then very mild at times in mid to late Jan, turning colder for a longer period in February lasting into early March. This continues to mimic the winter of 1946-47 and conditions are broadly similar across North America at this early stage of the season (over here, the concept of "climatological winter" is perhaps less dominant than in Europe, our experience tends to be winter fitting the astronomical season better, so in the psychology of the weather crowd the season hasn't really started yet, certainly the weather in eastern U.S. hasn't offered any signs of winter to date).

I would not want to say a repeat of 1947 but the season is taking on that sort of rhythm so if you could imagine a 50% intensity version of that epic winter, maybe that would be closer to what's possibly going to take place. On the other hand, after Dec 2010 there's no sound reason to believe that past records can't be at least equalled in modern times (CET within 0.1 of 1890 record).

patneve2

MASSIVE changes on GFS 12z

Speak Now

Goes to show how hard it is to get real cold to our shores, thats why most crave it i think. People love something different.

Anyway GFS and UKMO so different at T96.

patneve2

patneve2 wrote: »

MASSIVE changes on GFS 12z

It is so clear that the models are hopeless at modelling the Russian High - it's a strong beast

maquiladora

12Z GFS is a bit different alright, but it doesn't matter much to us, still under mild air. Only makes a difference for parts of Scotland and England.

The 12Z GFS isn't backed by the UKMO or previous GFS runs and will probably be an outlier against the ensembles. Unless the ECM shows something similar then it probably just got it wrong and the 18Z will change things back again.

Need to keep an eye on potential for a very wet or maybe stormy period around Christmas with this set up.

maquiladora

corksurfer2005 wrote: »

Can't decide if you are a realist or a killjoy! You seem to be on here like a shot whenever anybody suggests even the slightest bit of hope with the intention of extinguishing said hope.....

Realist. I love snow. :P

There are 15 degree temperature differences between parts of Ireland and parts on the UK on the 12Z GFS.

Beyond 120 hours? Nothing is certain. But thats not for this thread...

Sponge Bob

Very warm uppers forecast for this weekend by NOGAPS



ECM 12z in substantial accordance

derekon

Musicman2000 wrote: »

An update by M.T over on Netweather

My updated look at index values suggests another brief shot of sub-freezing temperatures around 4-7 Jan then very mild at times in mid to late Jan, turning colder for a longer period in February lasting into early March. This continues to mimic the winter of 1946-47 and conditions are broadly similar across North America at this early stage of the season (over here, the concept of "climatological winter" is perhaps less dominant than in Europe, our experience tends to be winter fitting the astronomical season better, so in the psychology of the weather crowd the season hasn't really started yet, certainly the weather in eastern U.S. hasn't offered any signs of winter to date).

I would not want to say a repeat of 1947 but the season is taking on that sort of rhythm so if you could imagine a 50% intensity version of that epic winter, maybe that would be closer to what's possibly going to take place. On the other hand, after Dec 2010 there's no sound reason to believe that past records can't be at least equalled in modern times (CET within 0.1 of 1890 record).

So we might get a bit of cold during a few days in early January and then its back to the mild dross?!!

In fairness to MT, he has been spot on for the past number of winters so would tend to go with what he says. Just hope the following : (a) Its decent cold and lasts more than a couple of days and (b) We actually get the cold and it does not stay on mainland Europe!!

D

ninebeanrows

The cold is coming.

Sudden Onset cold from T96hrs

Now its gonna be tough to get this cold well into Ireland but the northern and northeastern areas are at risk.

DOCARCH

Weathercheck wrote: »

The cold is coming.

Sudden Onset cold from T96hrs

What a ramper. Sudden departure too just after T96!

Next GFS run will be interesting.

derekon

Weathercheck wrote: »

The cold is coming.

Sudden Onset cold from T96hrs

Now its gonna be tough to get this cold well into Ireland but the northern and northeastern areas are at risk.

You fail to mention that this cold will be fleeting and will be blown away by the Atlantic the next day at 120 hours............:D

D

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

The cold is coming.

Sudden Onset cold from T96hrs

Now its gonna be tough to get this cold well into Ireland but the northern and northeastern areas are at risk.

Maybe even sooner than 96 hours. But it would be northeast Scotland/England that might get it. Ireland is on the other side of the coin, getting the mild air from the southwest with plenty of rain.

derekon

maquiladora wrote: »

Maybe even sooner than 96 hours. But it would be northeast Scotland/England that might get it. Ireland is on the other side of the coin, getting the mild air from the southwest with plenty of rain.

Well it won't last long in northeast Scotland or northeast England long either......fair amount of mild weather heading all of our way including Britain :D

D

Gonzo

after looking at the forecast on rte after the news it makes very depressing viewing, seems the Atlantic is back in full swing delivering mild wet muck day after day for the forseeable future. Temps up to 12C by the weekend and lots of rain. Hopefully we will see something decent in January or February.

Mr Cumulonimbus

Positive uppers over Ireland at +96 hrs in the 18Z GFS. Minus 8 uppers just about touching northeast Scotland. Moving out to +120 the cold air is pushed back a little more.

Sponge Bob

With the kerfuffle over an invisible cold spell this week I'm that surprised nobody noticed the near Bomb Cyclone off to the northwest in the later ECM.

This developes sat - mon, driven by mixing with the plume of warm Spanish / Azores air coming in from the south.

Saturday 990




Sat into Monday, drops :eek: 35 to 955 :eek: and develops quite a circulation. The warm upper air is being pulled northward from the south and along the eastern flank of that system.




Showing the dispersal at 850hpa in the same timescale.



Monday



After all that God knows.

Spindle

Sponge Bob wrote: »

With the kerfuffle over an invisible cold spell this week I'm that surprised nobody noticed the near Bomb Cyclone off to the northwest in the later ECM.

This developes sat - mon, driven by mixing with the plume of warm Spanish / Azores air coming in from the south.

....
.....
After all that God knows.

I was thinking the same, with all this cold divining going on in the models, I think the real story for the Christmas period could be a big storm and there have been hints in the models about this.

After all storms are as much winter weather as cold

Nabber

Christmas is +120. Probably why storm potential hasn't been mentioned?

snaps

The problems with the big storms is that the Russian high is blocking them from coming this far to us. So we are just left in miserable Atlantic muck. These lows then get stuck out in the Atlantic, piling misery on us folk.

Spindle

snaps wrote: »

The problems with the big storms is that the Russian high is blocking them from coming this far to us. So we are just left in miserable Atlantic muck. These lows then get stuck out in the Atlantic, piling misery on us folk.

That is the big question if the Atlantic can break through and push back the Russian high a bit then it opens the gates for a storm to move over us.

Whatever happens the Atlantic is in control of us for the next few days. Will be interesting to see what the models do when we get into the 120hr window, I am not sure they handled the influence of the Russian high all that well so far.

Nabber

Weathering wrote: »

Pointless post. Just like my last 63 posts

Just report my posts if you don't like them, I wont mind.
Anyways, FYP :P


It will be interesting to see if SpongeBob has called Christmas twice in a row :cool:

ECMF going in little bit stronger than the UKMO, with the GFS somewhere in the middle. The Russian, come Scandi high stalling it some what, it looks as if we could get dumped on with alot more rain.

Sponge Bob

Nabber wrote: »

It will be interesting to see if SpongeBob has called Christmas twice in a row :cool:

I am not going to call christmas this year, it's your turn Nabber.

No point calling it close in when it is bleeding obvious and too much uncertainty in the models to call it right now at only a temporal netch over the 120 hours. Christmas day could be anything from a Slack and rather pleasant southerly to a scuzzy and chilly North Westerly at todays range.

Speak Now

We're in a very poor state with the Atlantic looking very active for Christmas. Rainfall will cause flooding issues at times with current ground conditions. Temperatures around normal.

Speak Now

Mild spell should peak on Saturday according to latest GFS. Could see 13c in this set up.



Wouldnt be the worst Christmas eve either, under a slack flow with rain likely to miss us and hit England and Wales instead.

200motels

This mild muck is not to my liking but even looking at the different models up to 120 hrs it's just mild and wet.

cherryghost

A slighty more optimistic potential run of cold weather towards the end of the month, may come sooner than we think. Also, a slightly more optimistic potential run of milder weather for the run up til about Christmas eve. No problems for anyone getting home then