Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

maquiladora

12Z NAE showing up to 55mm of rain by midnight tomorrow in the southwest.

Rebelbrowser

t|nt|n wrote: »

Yes I know its the GFS precip chart

And I know its at T120

But there are shady bits over my house, LOOK !!! :pac::p

Its in the bag as far as Im concerned.

Trogdor

Some very very cold air coming down through Central/West Greenland and towards Iceland over the next few days. It's going to be a particularly chilly Christmas up that direction!

cyclops999

Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 22 Dec 2012 06:00 to Sun 23 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 21 Dec 2012 18:16
Forecaster: DAHLel 1

On ESTOFEX

maquiladora

cyclops999 wrote: »

Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 22 Dec 2012 06:00 to Sun 23 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 21 Dec 2012 18:16
Forecaster: DAHLel 1

On ESTOFEX

Well spotted.

A level 1 was issued across Ireland mainly for severe straight-line wind gusts.

Around 00 UTC on Sunday, a rather vigorous vorticity maximum and an associated SFC cold front will cross Ireland and the westen UK. The cold front may be accompanied by a narrow and shallow line of strongly-forced convection, capable of mixing some 30 m/s winds (present at 850 hPa) to the ground. WRF supports this scenario by simulating a band of weak CAPE near the location of the cold front. Will place a LVL1 threat where forcing for upward motion will be the strongest (and presumably, convection the deepest), which should be the most likely location for effective vertical momentum transfer.

30 m/s = 108 km/hour

NAE shows 850 hPa winds up to 130 km/hour. Will be interesting to see if anything like that does get mixed down to the surface.



Met Eireann have issued an advisory.

Issued at 21 December 2012 - 18:31

Weather Advisory

On Saturday night and Sunday morning, southwest to west winds are likely to increase in most parts of the country with mean speeds and gusts that have the potential to be damaging. Typical values may range 55 to 70 km/hr mean, 85 to 110 km/hr gust. Valid 22:00/22-12-2012 to 10:00/23-12-2012

Maybe thread worthy? If a mod wants to put this post into a new thread.

Storm 10

They are saying 110 km be interesting to see how it goes. At last a bit of action

JanuarySnowstor

Serious upgrade going on with the 18z
Widespread snow event a possibility Stephen's day

Folks the Christmas weather is NOT done and dusted YET!

cherryghost

I agree it's an upgrade but it's still very marginal...

JanuarySnowstor

cherryghost wrote: »

I agree it's an upgrade but it's still very marginal...

Yes certainly marginal BUT you'd never know
As they say 5 days is a long time in politics and an eternity in weather

maquiladora

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Serious upgrade going on with the 18z
Widespread snow event a possibility Stephen's day

Folks the Christmas weather is NOT done and dusted YET!

18Z looks dry on the 26th apart from possibly some light wintry showers on NI coasts.

5 days out so, so that will chop and change anyway.

Sponge Bob

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Yes certainly marginal BUT you'd never know

Its the pub run so we won't 'know' for around 48 hours. All that happens in the pub run is that -4 uppers come over Ireland on Stephens day and -8 comes close...but no banana.

Wintry weather in Donegal is the height of it so far.

BEASTERLY

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Serious upgrade going on with the 18z
Widespread snow event a possibility Stephen's day

Folks the Christmas weather is NOT done and dusted YET!

Eh what? Only half the country under -5c 850's in a polar maratime flow. We'll need atleast -8 in a flow like that.

Sponge Bob

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Eh what? Only half the country under -5c 850's in a polar maratime flow.

Met Eireann promising up to 15c later today. It won't lasht as we say in the Wesht! :cool:

Pangea

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Met Eireann promising up to 15c later today. It won't lasht as we say in the Wesht! :cool:

15c quite remarkable for December, what was the highest temperature recorded during last winters 'heatwave'?

Sponge Bob

14c or less. Christmas day hit 13.6c last year

force eleven

Atlantic all the way with latest ECM output. Exact opposite of what cold lovers want. High pressure over Spain. Low pressure between Iceland and Scotland. West to Southwest muck. Lots of rain and showers. Hoping early Jan will see a turn. Not overly optimistic. On the plus side, I suppose, travelling plans should be ok over the festive period re the weather.

derekon

force eleven wrote: »

Atlantic all the way with latest ECM output. Exact opposite of what cold lovers want. High pressure over Spain. Low pressure between Iceland and Scotland. West to Southwest muck. Lots of rain and showers. Hoping early Jan will see a turn. Not overly optimistic. On the plus side, I suppose, travelling plans should be ok over the festive period re the weather.

And alas that is a typical Irish winter! I think we need to start accepting that long periods of cold and snow (+7 days) are just not that common in Ireland given we are on the doorstep of the Atlantic Ocean, the primary driver of our weather. I think once we accept that FACT, we can all adjust our snow expectations to what they should be, i.e. very low! A happy mild Christmas to one and all !

D

Jaffusmaximus

derekon wrote: »

And alas that is a typical Irish winter! I think we need to start accepting that long periods of cold and snow (+7 days) are just not that common in Ireland given we are on the doorstep of the Atlantic Ocean, the primary driver of our weather. I think once we accept that FACT, we can all adjust our snow expectations to what they should be, i.e. very low! A happy mild Christmas to one and all !

D[/Quote
Cold periods can happen in Ireland and people will try to forecast them, also most hope for not expect snow every winter and I do not see much wrong with that.

Iancar29

06z Operational is a cold outlier , the majority of the ensembles are cool but nothing interesting imo. Though am certainly happy to see frost and ice risk returning though from next week .


Still a decent chance though for northern areas to get some wet snow for a brief spell.


Sorry cant post charts as im off to work...

Gonzo

After last winters non event and the constant dissapointments so far this winter, I think we've all had to lower our expectations considerably about how much snow we will get this year which is much more realistic. We were spoilt during 2009/2010 and it may be 20-30 years before we see something like that again. At this stage I would be happy enough to settle for an average Irish winters snow spell of 2 or 3 days with 2-4 inchs of snow.

mike65

Looks like high pressure is about to drop anchor over Biscay/Spain/Morocco neck of the woods.

derekon

mike65 wrote: »

Looks like high pressure is about to drop anchor over Biscay/Spain/Morocco neck of the woods.

Yes, looks like you are right Mike. And we all know that High Pressure over Spain means for Ireland. A conveyor belt of rain and wind gliding in over that high. This winter keeps getting better and better with absolutely zero sign of any cold or snow at the moment.

D

icesnowfrost

At this stage I'd take 2 days of snow and really cold. Even that would be better than last winter. Good start to this winter but this wet mild spell is really fecking it up. At least January is ment to be the coldest month, lets see?

Birdnuts

derekon wrote: »

Yes, looks like you are right Mike. And we all know that High Pressure over Spain means for Ireland. A conveyor belt of rain and wind gliding in over that high. This winter keeps getting better and better with absolutely zero sign of any cold or snow at the moment.

D

It does look rather ominous atm - very much like what happened last winter, only wetter:(

derekon

Birdnuts wrote: »

It does look rather ominous atm - very much like what happened last winter, only wetter:(

And to render it even more ominous, both the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation are due to turn positive around 10 days into January. This would seem to suggest we will now be looking towards mid/late January before any hope of snow i.e. at least another 3 weeks away and at that stage, the majority of the winter will be behind us. And even then there is no guarantee of the white stuff.

Will winter 2012/2013 rank up there with 03,04,05,06,07 for **** winters?

D

esposito

feck off with your depressing outlook

Gonzo

i think it's best we all just take a week off from weather watching as nothing interesting is gonna happen for at least a week or 2. Best thing to do is just forget about this crappy winter and enjoy christmas and get back to weather watching in January!

Birdnuts

derekon wrote: »

And to render it even more ominous, both the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation are due to turn positive around 10 days into January. This would seem to suggest we will now be looking towards mid/late January before any hope of snow i.e. at least another 3 weeks away and at that stage, the majority of the winter will be behind us. And even then there is no guarantee of the white stuff.

Will winter 2012/2013 rank up there with 03,04,05,06,07 for **** winters?

D

I could take a run of [EMAIL="cr@p"]cr@p[/EMAIL] winters if they weren't nearly always followed by [EMAIL="cr@p"]cr@p[/EMAIL] summers. I'm feeling even more heat starved then cold starved atm:(

derekon

esposito wrote: »

feck off with your depressing outlook

Depressing or Realistic? I think you know the answer Esposito

D

icesnowfrost

But how many times have you people said that the weather a week ahead can change in a day or 2 according to the models. So surely you can't say that in 2 weeks there will or won't be cold or snow