Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

derekon

icesnowfrost wrote: »

But how many times have you people said that the weather a week ahead can change in a day or 2 according to the models. So surely you can't say that in 2 weeks there will or won't be cold or snow

True, at this point in time you can only forecast accurately 5 days into the future (even then it gets risky at day 4/5). That said, you can see certain trends emerging. For example, at the moment the trend is for ongoing Atlantic muck with no discernible sign of any real cold. This can be gauged from a number of sources - the ECMWF, by having a look at the forecast trends for the AO/NAO, by viewing the wider picture in terms of high and low pressure systems (looks like there will be no high pressure for Ireland for at least the next week).

So based on trends, there is no real cold coming to Ireland in the foreseeable future. One strand of hope however is the MT Cranium winter forecast which indicates a very cold trend at the end of January and into February. That is a way off so patience is required by all !

D

Speak Now

5 days only in here, take ur crystal ball predictions somewhere else.

pauldry

I think it will snow on Dec 30 and 31st.

However I also thought it would snow a bit in early December and it was only cold.

Luisport

Forecast in Iceland shows that we might break the historical RECORD for lowest temperature ever recorded, next 27th December, near Myvatn

http://www.mbl.is/frettir/innlent/2012/12/22/verdur_45_stiga_frost/

The computer models forecast a low temperature between -34ºC to -45ºC, still uncertain and difficult to predict exactly. But the absolute Icelandic record stands at -38ºC from 1918.
temperature in Reykjavik for 1938 is still falling? Recently it dropped by almost 1.8°C

http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2012/01/25/how-giss-has-totally-corrupted-reykjaviks-temperatures/

Luisport

AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

How's this for cold: -73F at Oymyakon, Russia, earlier this morning

davidsr20

pauldry wrote: »

I think it will snow on Dec 30 and 31st.

However I also thought it would snow a bit in early December and it was only cold.

How Do u think that lol

cherryghost

davidsr20 wrote: »

How Do u think that lol

Because the models have been consistant with some sort of mini cold blast for about a week now. Something may happen if even for a day or 2 before the end of the year. -6 uppers looks likely for a period along with a belt of precipitation.

whitebriar

Luisport wrote: »

AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

How's this for cold: -73F at Oymyakon, Russia, earlier this morning

Indeed Moscow is at -23c at 4 in the afternoon!
That would stiffen your nostril hairs!


Uppers wouldn't matter as much if you advected surface level air that cold in from the east,it would have sub zero maxima in Ireland after about 5 days of an easterly.

Luisport

3 hJames Spann ‏@spann

A detailed look at the Christmas major severe weather threat for Alabama. Please read and share http://www.alabamawx.com/?p=67011 #alwx

22 mSevere Studios‏@severestudios

Tornado OUTBREAK expected tomorrow for Gulf coast states: http://kamala.cod.edu/spc/day2.prob.gif Be prepared!

26 mSevere Studios‏@severestudios

Tornado threat today east TX, west LA: http://kamala.cod.edu/spc/day1.tornado.gif

derekon

I see MT's post today notes that his research is now suggesting a very mild end of January (last 10 days?) however with it then turning "much colder" during February.

So the last month of winter 2012/2013 might be our best hope of snow this winter? I think what could have occurred with a lot of people (and I include myself here) is that following 2010, we expect snow in December. Correct me if I am wrong but can we get decent snow in February in Ireland with sub zero temperatures?

D

Luisport

derekon wrote: »

I see MT's post today notes that his research is now suggesting a very mild end of January (last 10 days?) however with it then turning "much colder" during February.

So the last month of winter 2012/2013 might be our best hope of snow this winter? I think what could have occurred with a lot of people (and I include myself here) is that following 2010, we expect snow in December. Correct me if I am wrong but can we get decent snow in February in Ireland with sub zero temperatures?

D

Hi everyone! Do you think that with the predicted collapse of polar vortex to the first 10 days of January, do you think that january will have mild temp?:D

icesnowfrost

Don't expect snow in December. We hope for it I mean surely everyone likes to see a white Christmas even just for a few days.

TheMilkyPirate

derekon wrote: »

I see MT's post today notes that his research is now suggesting a very mild end of January (last 10 days?) however with it then turning "much colder" during February.

So the last month of winter 2012/2013 might be our best hope of snow this winter? I think what could have occurred with a lot of people (and I include myself here) is that following 2010, we expect snow in December. Correct me if I am wrong but can we get decent snow in February in Ireland with sub zero temperatures?

D

As far as I'm aware January and February are statistically our coldest months.

Pangea

derekon wrote: »

ICorrect me if I am wrong but can we get decent snow in February in Ireland with sub zero temperatures?

D

I think I read somewhere on here that even *March is statistically colder than November, and we all know how cold November in 2010 got.
*Not sure if this true , would need our Statistician Deep Easterly to verify.

mike65

That's almost certainly true, snow in March is common if rarely sustained, snow in November is very rare.

Luisport

Severe Studios‏@severestudios

Moderate Risk area for severe weather expanded for tomorrow. Tornadoes likely. http://kamala.cod.edu/spc/day2.gif

Birdnuts

baraca wrote: »

As far as I'm aware January and February are statistically our coldest months.

Yes - Feb is actually the coldest month in the Arctic, so a blast from the North/North East can really deleiver the goods/

Gonzo

We can get very good snowy weather here till mid April if the conditions are right, we had 8 inchs of snow here during April in the past although it was very short lived at that stage. I even saw a few flurries once in early June back in 1986.

pad199207

Over the whole of last winter 11/12, the only decent fall of snow i got was in April 2012!

srmambo

pad199207 wrote: »

Over the whole of last winter 11/12, the only decent fall of snow i got was in April 2012!

Same for me, but it only settled at the mountains

cherryghost

Starting to enter a semi reliable timeframe, north, northwest and midlands looking for a dumping of snow around the 29th running into the 30th... Looking forward to the post Stephens day trend to see if its still there

Also would like to say happy new year to weather boardsies! Its been a difficult and frustrating year and we've lost some great users, let's hope the coming year brings more optimistic events

M.T. Cranium

The mean temperature for Jan and Feb at most stations in Ireland and UK is very similar, but it should be noted that cold Januaries have been more frequent especially in recent times than cold Februaries. When the climate was colder in the 18th century, the UK records indicate that January was almost a degree colder than February on average, but in more recent decades the differences have been slight.

For the UK, with the exception of last year's half month of severe cold, it has probably been 27 years (1986) since there was a truly cold February. If Jan 21 to Feb 20 was a month, then 1991 would have had a sub-zero month also. Those comments would also be true for Ireland, minus the part about the half month last year, and possibly 1.5-2 for that period in 1991.

In the second half of the 19th century, however, for some reason February did better than January at producing cold months. The most notable examples were 1855 and 1895.

There is probably some reason for all this, but I don't have any theories to explain these different regimes in different (half) centuries. February of 1947, 1956 and 1963 were all severe (at times or most of the month) so we are not that far removed from a time when February could deliver the goods. All I can say is that we seem to have an opportunity this winter. On another point, yes the best route is via Scandinavia and I think in 1947 the early part of the winter was similar with the strong high in Russia, then it redeveloped in regions north of Scotland when the pattern changed in late January. That winter also produced severe cold in Yukon and Alaska, Canada's lowest recorded temperature (-63 C recorded as -81 F) was on Feb 1, 1947 on the Yukon-Alaska border. That station is no longer active (Snag) and was considered 10 F deg anomalously cold in severe cold periods, so if Mayo, the current coldest location, were to hit -60 C that would probably be comparable, in any case some nearby Alaska stations such as Fort Yukon are still reporting for comparisons.

mickger844posts

cherryghost wrote: »

Starting to enter a semi reliable timeframe, north, northwest and midlands looking for a dumping of snow around the 29th running into the 30th... Looking forward to the post Stephens day trend to see if its still there

Also would like to say happy new year to weather boardsies! Its been a difficult and frustrating year and we've lost some great users, let's hope the coming year brings more optimistic events

Looking at the latest models i can't see any dumping of snow on the 29th or 30th

I echo your comments re the New Year and users past but we still have some very knowledgeable people in here and always will i believe. So onwards and upwards for 2013.

Gonzo

pad199207 wrote: »

Over the whole of last winter 11/12, the only decent fall of snow i got was in April 2012!

we had no lying snow last year at all here, saw a few wet flakes thats about it i think. Having said that Ive yet to even see sleet this year.

Duiske

mickger844posts wrote: »

Looking at the latest models i can't see any dumping of snow on the 29th or 30th

Some areas of may see a bit of wintry stuff, but only on the highest ground and it's not going to amount to a whole lot. What stands out for Fri night/Sat morning on the GFS are potentially damaging winds along the west and north-west coasts.

cherryghost

Duiske wrote: »

Some areas of may see a bit of wintry stuff, but only on the highest ground and it's not going to amount to a whole lot. What stands out for Fri night/Sat morning on the GFS are potentially damaging winds along the west and north-west coasts.

The previous mornings model charts were showing low enough temps for something to happen. Today's models look a bit more ominous though. There's still a small chance of snow showers on lower ground overnight on the 29th but looks likely to thaw in the morning...

Weathering

cherryghost wrote: »

The previous mornings model charts were showing low enough temps for something to happen. Today's models look a bit more ominous though. There's still a small chance of snow showers on lower ground overnight on the 29th but looks likely to thaw in the morning...

waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa. what kind of wind speeds could donegal see? It's snow ****ty younger brother substitute

derekon

Quick update on both the NAO and AO outlooks. Looking rather ominous for snow lovers!

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is due to turn positive as we head towards mid January 2013. The Atlantic looks like holding control (meaning wet and windy weather). Indices are showing +1 (not very strong but still positive) as we head to mid Jan (scroll to bottom of linked page):

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) looks even stronger with a high of +2 forecast (again scroll to bottom of linked page):

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_mrf.shtml

All in all, it looks like we will be 50% through the Irish winter (15th January) with no sign of any cold spell! However have faith snow bunnies. February 2013 is on course to deliver the goods

D

Sponge Bob

Looking like a sequence of storms and blusters for the 5 day reliable horizon and for the nxt fortnight thereafter. Perhaps some hail and thundersnow along the leading edges.

Sferics appearing offshore now, perhaps a blast or two in Connacht later today.

Musicman2000

derekon wrote: »

Quick update on both the NAO and AO outlooks. Looking rather ominous for snow lovers!

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is due to turn positive as we head towards mid January 2013. The Atlantic looks like holding control (meaning wet and windy weather). Indices are showing +1 (not very strong but still positive) as we head to mid Jan (scroll to bottom of linked page):

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) looks even stronger with a high of +2 forecast (again scroll to bottom of linked page):

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_mrf.shtml

All in all, it looks like we will be 50% through the Irish winter (15th January) with no sign of any cold spell! However have faith snow bunnies. February 2013 is on course to deliver the goods

D

Im sure both of these will change when the forecast ssw shows up in the operational runs, but there is no sign of this yet. Really think we will have to look east again this winter. Hopefully it wont be a re run of last winter europe in the freezer and good old Ireland stuck in its own mini heat wave:)