Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

derekon

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Im sure both of these will change when the forecast ssw shows up in the operational runs, but there is no sign of this yet. Really think we will have to look east again this winter. Hopefully it wont be a re run of last winter europe in the freezer and good old Ireland stuck in its own mini heat wave:)

Fair points there Musicman2000 - I had not factored the SSW into that forecast I also think we will be looking to either Scandinvia or Russia for a blast of winter in late January/February. Fingers cross all around so

D

force eleven

Appalling charts for coldies from GFS. Drizzly cloudy mild or very mild weather. For weeks. At least central heating bill should be quite low.

Speak Now

Some people are really having difficulty with the 0-120hrs only bit!

Musicman2000

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Some people are really having difficulty with the 0-120hrs only bit!

Talk to the wall Jerry, same over on Netweather, The winter is over posts are out , some people never listen:)

cherryghost

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Talk to the wall Jerry, same over on Netweather, The winter is over posts are out , some people never listen:)

Charts at 72hrs still child out a glimmer of hope. New years looks to be developing something interesting too

force eleven

Beyond 120hrs, GFS has a strong signal for much more settled weather. High pressure becomes anchored to the south of us and nudges nearly over us in a weeks time. But never gets north of us to introduce the easterly flow. Indeed, it seems to slip south later in the period introducing mild westerlies again. But at least it might be brighter and crisper and calmer again for a while.

leahyl

Meanwhile, blizzards in the US - looks like my friend will be snowed in by morning!

icesnowfrost

leahyl wrote: »

Meanwhile, blizzards in the US - looks like my friend will be snowed in by morning!

If only we were that lucky

Sponge Bob

NAO strongly positive for us thank God. Don't care what happens in Arkansas TBH.

whitebriar

Sponge Bob wrote: »

NAO strongly positive for us thank God. Don't care what happens in Arkansas TBH.

Bob,you are aware that the NAO is a factor of FI forecasting,ie your statement is exactly the same as saying .."here's a t-240 chart with rain in it not snow..hurrah" ?

You know how verifiable FI charts are.
That said,my gut is,the atlantic is in charge of our weather and it would take something major,as of now that there's no sign of, to dislodge it.

derekon

For coldies, the latest models are shocking. Atlantic fully in charge with possible temperatures in Ireland of 15oc over the next week. :mad:

Cannot see any sign of a cold spell until the 15th/20th January at the earliest.

D

Sponge Bob

whitebriar wrote: »

Bob,you are aware that the NAO is a factor of FI forecasting,ie your statement is exactly the same as saying .."here's a t-240 chart with rain in it not snow..hurrah" ?

Right, and the "Oct" bit of the chart is October 2013 is it???

Explain the black spiky bit for us so maestro

MUSEIST

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Right, and the "Oct" bit of the chart is October 2013 is it???

Explain the black spiky bit for us so maestro

The oct data is the actual recorded data whereas the future predicted part is completely dependant on the what the models are saying and does not in itself influence the models. Hence it's as likely to change as any deep FI GFS charts.

maquiladora

If a SSW happens in early Jan then you could see a pretty rapid shift in the pattern in FI after that.

But this is the 0-120hrs thread anyway, so...

Mr Bumble

From netweather debate, the SSw is nailed on and is already showing in FI....Jan 10 seems to be the favoured day but nobody seems certain about exact impact...

BEASTERLY

maquiladora wrote: »

If a SSW happens in early Jan then you could see a pretty rapid shift in the pattern in FI after that.

But this is the 0-120hrs thread anyway, so...

Following the discussion on Netweather, fascinating developments at the moment. The date for a possible SSW has actually being getting closer as the warming reaches the reliable time frame. Let's hope it wont be too long before we're able to discuss some of it's consequences in this thread.

Weathering

I'd rather it come in January as opposed to December
reason being the evenings are slightly longer so u can enjoy it more and jan is naturally colder than dec if the conditions are right

Gonzo

lets hope a change is on the cards for late January, at the moment things look terrible for most of Europe, not just Ireland with the mild atlantic air making it over nearly as far as Moscow over the next week. Even Scandinavia is mild compared to normal with cold plunges every few days. I want this change not just for the snow but for the year around as the last thing we want is warm southerly plunges in winter and cold northerly plunges during May-September. As much as I would hate to see us getting no snow this winter, I think another cold wet summer would be even worse.

derekon

Wow, over 24 hours since the last post on this topic - says a lot about cold chances at the moment doesn't it?

Just had a look at the latest ECMWF model (today at midday and released just after 6pm) - it shows the Atlantic power train reaching all of Germany and western Poland on Monday 7th January.

Just seems at the moment that the Atlantic will not budge (and this evening's windy weather is testament to this)

Still we live in hope...........

D

maquiladora

Certainly isn't anything too interesting in the 0-120 period anyay, and that might not change for quite a while...

derekon

Just to keep things ticking over in here ahead of Ireland's anticipated severe cold spell in February 2013, check out this gem of a video from Ian McCaskill on the BBC from the severe cold that Britain & Ireland experienced back in February 1991 (thanks to a Scandi High).

Lots of snow and windchill temperatures of -9oC to -16oC during the day!!

D

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hd6DuebHliY

whitebriar

derekon wrote: »

Just to keep things ticking over in here ahead of Ireland's anticipated severe cold spell in February 2013, check out this gem of a video from Ian McCaskill on the BBC from the severe cold that Britain & Ireland experienced back in February 1991 (thanks to a Scandi High).

Lots of snow and windchill temperatures of -9oC to -16oC during the day!!

D

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hd6DuebHliY

yeah,I remember that.A good 10 inches in Arklow from a huge streamer that hit from about the beehive on the N11 down as far as about ferns.
The whole spell may have went on 8 to 10 days iirc.

derekon

whitebriar wrote: »

yeah,I remember that.A good 10 inches in Arklow from a huge streamer that hit from about the beehive on the N11 down as far as about ferns.
The whole spell may have went on 8 to 10 days iirc.

Well fingers crossed we get a similar spell end of January/February 2013 Whitebriar! Good to hear your recollection of that period too.

Sorry the post is slightly off topic but just wanted to kick start this thread again. Moderators, I promise to stay on topic going forward!

D

Luisport

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Most recent RAP run takes current 1000 mb low off of Virginia to 968 mb in 18-hrs in Gulf of Maine. F-bomb storm. http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/285081083651969025/photo/1

DylanII

Is the lack of activity on here a sign that nothing will happen anytime soon?

Harps

DylanII wrote: »

Is the lack of activity on here a sign that nothing will happen anytime soon?

Sure is

The January equivalent of a heatwave on the way for next week, plenty of grey, calm, mild and totally uneventful days ahead for the foreseeable future!

Birdnuts

Harps wrote: »

Sure is

The January equivalent of a heatwave on the way for next week, plenty of grey, calm, mild and totally uneventful days ahead for the foreseeable future!

Yes - as of now a re-run of January 2012 looks likely. All very dreary and dull. Not made easier by the fact that we haven't seen such "summer" charts in the appropriate season for many years now:(

Deep Easterly

Harps wrote: »

Sure is

Plenty of grey, calm, mild and totally uneventful days ahead for the foreseeable future!

While not my first choice of weather faves either I'll take that over what we have endured since October which was more or less the same but cold along with it. Some solid warmth will be very welcome after the ceaseless damp chill of the last few months. If it is going to be cold, let it be a dry and invigorating one from depths of Europe!

Gonzo

Birdnuts wrote: »

Yes - as of now a re-run of January 2012 looks likely. All very dreary and dull. Not made easier by the fact that we haven't seen such "summer" charts in the appropriate season for many years now:(

the only main difference is last year the mild atlantic muck stayed in Ireland while the rest of Europe and the UK enjoyed a snowfest, this time around almost the entire european continent is under the influence of the mild atlantic muck over the next 7-14 days at least.

derekon

Gonzo wrote: »

the only main difference is last year the mild atlantic muck stayed in Ireland while the rest of Europe and the UK enjoyed a snowfest, this time around almost the entire european continent is under the influence of the mild atlantic muck over the next 7-14 days at least.

Correct Gonzo, however I would not include all of the "UK" in the cold snap from early 2012. It was mainly the eastern fringes of England. Most of England, Wales and Scotland endured the mild muck encountered in Ireland during that period.

D