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Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)
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Looking very mild for the coming 5-7 days with temperatures likely to reach 13-15oC on Friday. Not particularly wintry eh?
I find the meteorologist Brian Gaze pretty accurate over on TWO (The Weather Outlook). Below is his latest update, posted at 7.30pm this evening. In a nutshell, he is not buying all this talk of an SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) event.
Now snow lovers won't like this but his view is that we might not see any snow until around Valentine's Day....that is 6 weeks away! Also, his comments only pertain to England.
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/latest.aspx
This winter is proving very testing for snow lovers in Ireland. Is anyone hopeful of snow this winter for the Emerald Isle or do you think we are in for a snowless one again?
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Things are starting to look good in the long range carts sill way out in FI things start looking cold last week in january first week in febaury if nothing happens then, i think we be out of look for snow loversLooking very mild for the coming 5-7 days with temperatures likely to reach 13-15oC on Friday. Not particularly wintry eh?
I find the meteorologist Brian Gaze pretty accurate over on TWO (The Weather Outlook). Below is his latest update, posted at 7.30pm this evening. In a nutshell, he is not buying all this talk of an SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) event.
Now snow lovers won't like this but his view is that we might not see any snow until around Valentine's Day....that is 6 weeks away! Also, his comments only pertain to England.
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/latest.aspx
This winter is proving very testing for snow lovers in Ireland. Is anyone hopeful of snow this winter for the Emerald Isle or do you think we are in for a snowless one again?
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Shocking disagreement by Day 5. No solid resolution on pressure to our north even within 120 hours.
Slight variations in the predicted timings of vigourous low pressure systems passing through is always going to give a graph like that though.
The general situation seems clear enough, HP over or slightly to our south steers a succession of LP systems up over Iceland.0 -
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Looking very mild for the coming 5-7 days with temperatures likely to reach 13-15oC on Friday. Not particularly wintry eh?
I find the meteorologist Brian Gaze pretty accurate over on TWO (The Weather Outlook). Below is his latest update, posted at 7.30pm this evening. In a nutshell, he is not buying all this talk of an SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) event.
D
I find that strange. Are you sure he's not of the view that a ssw event will happen, but that the outcome will not be favourable for the uk once its effects show up in the troposphere. I ask because a ssw event is very likely to happen. Also bear in mind that M.T. Craniums winter forecast of a cold February is likely predicated on the usual 2- 3 week time lag between a major winter warming event, which is predicted to occur on the 6th or seventh of January, showing its hand at the level where weather occurs.0 -
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Apologies Nacho, I should have clarified. The SSW is taking place, no doubt about that and of course Brian Gaze accepts that as its a meteorological fact. What I meant to say is that he does not necessarily think it will bring cold over the British Isles.
D
Did he explain why exactly he did not feel it will bring cold over the British Isles or is it just a hunch. I guess like everyone else he will just have to wait and see what this dynamic process will bring Exciting times ahead 0 -
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nacho libre wrote: »No need to apologise:) let's just hope he's wrong. one thing in our favour is that there are two possible further warmings forecast after the ssw occurs, crucially one of them may well see off any remnants of the vortex that might like to take up resident in Greenland, which would really not be what we want to see! so the second warming, if it comes to pass, should increase our chances of blocking setting up in the right place.
still, as we all know, we can have the most promising background signals for a cold outbreak, yet the blasted Altantic still wins.
we should all think about doing a snow dance or two:D
Across the board agreement on the models that there will be a significant downturn on temps as soon as the end of next week the GFS was leading the way then this morning the ECM and the UKMO really have begun to pick up on the new cooling trend MT has now factored into his forecast a transitional period into his outlook plus have not seen many mild rampers about lately :rolleyes: 0 -
OK first of all I thought there was a gap for this kind of thread, if the mods think otherwise feel free to shut it. This is not a thread for posting FI eyecandy charts.
For the first post I'll focus on a much talked about possible cold spell developing. It is true that it looks like the pieces of the jigsaw are falling into place. By that I mean to allow potential for a cold outbreak.
What has been creating all the buzz lately is the SSW(Sudden Stratospheric Warming). But what does it mean for us down here. Info about the SSW itself can be found in the strat thread. Current output show further warming episodes after the initial SSW. This eventually splits the vortex, with a piece being forced into Canada by the subsequent third warming. As shown in the chart below this leaves a ridge over Greenland.
This will encourage height rises and high pressure in the region of Greenland in the troposphere(our part of the atmosphere). A Greenland high would allow cold air air to be drawn from the North/Northeast
Of course, stratospheric drivers can be overruled. And I talked about this in the ramping thread. The MJO(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madden%E2%80%93Julian_oscillation) is currently in a phase which will tend to mute the stratospheric signal. But it is forecast to transition to phase 7 in about day 10/11, then on to phase 8.
Phase 7 of the MJO tends to support height rises over Greenland and in the mid Atlantic. Here is a composite 500mb height anomaly for MJO phase 7 in January.
And now onto the the models. Well, let's call a spade a spade, they are all over the place. Very hard to find consistency. In volatile situations like this it can be more helpful to look at ensemble anomaly means. These two(GFS and NAEFS) suggest heights building over Greenland.
NAEFS
GFS
As ever there is no guarantees, but I think at this stage it is reasonable to get a little bit excited. I Suspect the High to our south will make several attempts to push north over us. It will probably stay stagnant over us for a while. We might get some cool sunny weather with some frost. Similar to this set up:
After this there is a lot of uncertainty, but as I displayed above there is good reason the believe that heights could build over Greenland. This may open the door for an outbreak of wintry weather after mid month.
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