Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

delw

So the ECM beginning to show some nice charts in FI,can we start to get a little bit giddy now ?

Tom Cruises Left Nut

delw wrote: »

So the ECM beginning to show some nice charts in FI,can we start to get a little bit giddy now ?

I want to see the 18z GFS and the 00z runs first

(Excitement setting in though)

BEASTERLY

delw wrote: »

So the ECM beginning to show some nice charts in FI,can we start to get a little bit giddy now ?

Sorry but no. Exactly I month ago today the ECM showed this!

maquiladora

The models will be all over the place in FI due to the changes that will happen due to the strat warming. Except lots of juicy runs like todays ECM and lots of poorer runs like todays GFS, until they start to get a handle on what will actually happen. Enjoy the rollercoaster, its only just starting.

BEASTERLY

nacho libre wrote: »

i fear the gfs suddenly dropping the idea of a second warming in the stratosphere could be hugely significant- it could explain the latest awful gfs run
however, were the latest gfs run to verify, it would seem to back up M.T. Cranium's idea that the notably cold weather would fail at first to reach us.

i wonder has all this anything to do with the suggested increase in solar activity? it was said that the failed easterly in december was due to a sudden uptake in November. although, of course there was no major stratospheric warming event going on back then.

Im just looking at the 10hpa temperature charts, dont see any difference in the 12z to the previous few runs?

nacho libre

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Im just looking at the 10hpa temperature charts, dont see any difference in the 12z to the previous few runs?

maybe i'm reading it incorrectly, but The 12z GFS op seems to have dropped the ball with regards to the second warming which has been forecast and allows the PV to re-establish itself over greenland. maybe it's juat blip, or hopefully i'm just reading things incorrectly- it's most likely that.

BEASTERLY

nacho libre wrote: »

maybe i'm reading it incorrectly, but The 12z GFS op seems to have dropped the ball with regards to the second warming which has been forecast and allows the PV to re-establish itself over greenland. maybe it's juat blip, or hopefully i'm just reading things incorrectly- it's most likely that.

Well ive only looked at one level. But at that it has temperatures above zero throughout the run. Remember its been close to -80 all winter up there.

BEASTERLY

maquiladora wrote: »

The models will be all over the place in FI due to the changes that will happen due to the strat warming. Except lots of juicy runs like todays ECM and lots of poorer runs like todays GFS, until they start to get a handle on what will actually happen. Enjoy the rollercoaster, its only just starting.

Sure it wouldn't be a rollercoaster if there were no downs aswell as up!

ZX7R

I think we will need to give at least 5 days for the charts to all fall in line but some lovely charts tonight in FI

maquiladora

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Sure it wouldn't be a rollercoaster if there were no downs aswell as up!

Exactly.

BEASTERLY

The BOM is an ECM fan!

Birdnuts

delw wrote: »

So the ECM beginning to show some nice charts in FI,can we start to get a little bit giddy now ?

Extreme caution is needed here - if it was showing the type of dreary mildness we have now at that range, you could be sure thats how it would turn out in reality. Unfortunatly as others have pointed out, whether it be heatwaves in summer or decent cold spells in winter, charts showing such things at that range tend to fall flat on their face, as I think many on here will testify from bitter experience:(

mickger844posts

Birdnuts wrote: »

Extreme caution is needed here - if it was showing the type of dreary mildness we have now at that range, you could be sure thats how it would turn out in reality. Unfortunatly as others have pointed out, whether it be heatwaves in summer or decent cold spells in winter, charts showing such things at that range tend to fall flat on their face, as I think many on here will testify from bitter experience:(

Well summed up. We have been here many times before only for our hopes to be dashed. The odds will always favour Atlantic dominance but it doesn't always work out that way so nice to see some cold potential but that's all it is at this stage. I will watch the models with interest but won't be getting anyway excited yet.

Deep Easterly

A rinse repeat of the dredged up mP gunk that we suffered throughout April, most of May, June, July, much of August, a good part of September/October, entire November & most of December anyone?

BEASTERLY

Deep Easterly wrote: »

A rinse repeat of the dredged up mP gunk that we suffered throughout April, most of May, June, July, much of August, a good part of September/October, entire November & most of December anyone?

There seems plenty of support among the members at 168 though? Is there anyway to get a mean chart for 120 to 240 hours? Would a total not be diluted by the 0-120 hours output?

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!168!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2009112700!!/

EDIT: Got an 8-10 day one. Nothing wrong with this!


Can you explain what I'm missing?

delw

Birdnuts wrote: »

Extreme caution is needed here - if it was showing the type of dreary mildness we have now at that range, you could be sure thats how it would turn out in reality. Unfortunatly as others have pointed out, whether it be heatwaves in summer or decent cold spells in winter, charts showing such things at that range tend to fall flat on their face, as I think many on here will testify from bitter experience:(

Yeah i know alot of caution should be the message of the day & what the ECM is showing will probably be gone on next run anyway but it is nice to see them charts however i won't wet myself with excitement just yet :pac:

aboyro

BEASTERLY wrote: »

The BOM is an ECM fan!

i love the look of that 955. serious surf for all southern coasts if that slipped into biscay.:D

BEASTERLY

The GFS 18z seems to be a blend of the 12z and the 12z ECM. Started off following the ECM but started to revert back to the 12z after t144, still cold though!

pistolpetes11

BEASTERLY wrote: »

The GFS 18z seems to be a blend of the 12z and the 12z ECM. Started off following the ECM but started to revert back to the 12z after t144, still cold though!

Its a strange on as it does not build the block but still manages to deliver cold

BEASTERLY

Not overly pleased with the 18z GFS ensembles.

zidewayz

Is this the best that the GFS has to offer this morn. Ireland split down the middle with -5 850hpa.

maquiladora

0Z ECM showing an easterly by 144 hours. UKMO and GEM look interesting too. GFS - doesn't look great at all, quite different. 12Z runs should be fun to see today!

Jaffusmaximus

maquiladora wrote: »

0Z ECM showing an easterly by 144 hours. UKMO and GEM look interesting too. GFS - doesn't look great at all, quite different. 12Z runs should be fun to see today!

Very strange how in many ways the GFS lead the way, certainly before the ECM has picked up the ball and is carrying it further into the cold. I wonder if the GFS seeing another transitional period next week with reloading of highs next week further west or is it just looking to pull things zonal inherintly. Just cant see things going zonal all the way to March after this. Still over six weeks left with more SSW about.

Rebelbrowser

6z GFS a bit better for cold but still only -4's over us. I think all other models have us under -8's by next weekend though. I think by Tuesdays 12z we will know for certain. IF the GFS is right, we will miss cold this time but get it around 20 January at the second attempt. All of this seems eerily like the LRF of a certain Canadian.......

Rebelbrowser

As a postscript, as RTE give a weekly forecast on the Sunday farming forecast and on the Sunday 6 and 9 news, and as Met Eireann usually base their forecast primarily (though not exclusively) on the ECM, those forecasts could give the country a taste of a very wintery next weekend... It might not just be us on boards.ie talking about this by tonight!

maquiladora

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

6z GFS a bit better for cold but still only -4's over us. I think all other models have us under -8's by next weekend though. I think by Tuesdays 12z we will know for certain. IF the GFS is right, we will miss cold this time but get it around 20 January at the second attempt. All of this seems eerily like the LRF of a certain Canadian.......

I wouldn't worry about FI details in individual runs at the moment. The SSW is only happening now, with another period of strat warming forecast later this month. It will take time (days to weeks) for these upper level changes to filter down to the part of the atmosphere where we get weather, so the models right now are probably not handling what will actually happen very well - for better or worse!

Redsunset

In the longer term all these warmings will knock the stuffing out of the Strat Polar Vortex and it's going to really struggle to try bottle up the Arctic air. This really does have the makings of a prolonged wintry (Dickons) period. Just who gets the airmass the worst is still guess work but greenie high is a high probability so .............Get ready now just in case because if / when the wheels on this get moving it could be very hard to stop.

BEASTERLY

The GFS 00z Op and control were outliers in bringing low pressure across the North Atlantic, with the the majority of ensembles going for pressure rises in the north atlantic.



ECM seems to have a good few member following the op run this morning:
http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!168!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2009112700!!/

aboyro

maquiladora wrote: »

I wouldn't worry about FI details in individual runs at the moment. The SSW is only happening now, with another period of strat warming forecast later this month. It will take time (days to weeks) for these upper level changes to filter down to the part of the atmosphere where we get weather, so the models right now are probably not handling what will actually happen very well - for better or worse!

just out of interest, what is the time frame in the global sense of an SSW. what i mean is how sudden is the warming? is it hours/days/weeks???

BEASTERLY

aboyro wrote: »

just out of interest, what is the time frame in the global sense of an SSW. what i mean is how sudden is the warming? is it hours/days/weeks???

This one seemed to start off slowly building up for a week or so, then rapidly accelerated over the last few days. The official SSW is due today, i think!