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Still 20% from bottom

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    #2
    RATM
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,591 ✭✭✭RATM


    Meh, Moody's are totally behind the curve. According to them the market has dropped 49.9% since peak in September 2007.
    But our main barometer (for now) has been Allsops auctions and 65%-70% seems to be the drop from peak thus far.

    At the beginning of this crash Morgan Kelly predicted drops of 80% from peak. I'd say he is looking more and more like he is on the money for each quarter than passes, in certain cases it might even overshoot to 85%-90% drops.

    That castle that is on sale in the next Allsops auction has a reserve of €50k. It sold for €1.2m in 2005 so the auction result in July should be a good indicator of just how low we can go for certain properties. Even if it achieves €100k that would still represent a 92% drop in value from 2005 until now.


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    #3
    irishguy
    Registered Users Posts: 3,299 ✭✭✭irishguy


    RATM wrote: »
    Meh, Moody's are totally behind the curve. According to them the market has dropped 49.9% since peak in September 2007.
    But our main barometer (for now) has been Allsops auctions and 65%-70% seems to be the drop from peak thus far.

    At the beginning of this crash Morgan Kelly predicted drops of 80% from peak. I'd say he is looking more and more like he is on the money for each quarter than passes, in certain cases it might even overshoot to 85%-90% drops.

    That castle that is on sale in the next Allsops auction has a reserve of €50k. It sold for €1.2m in 2005 so the auction result in July should be a good indicator of just how low we can go for certain properties. Even if it achieves €100k that would still represent a 92% drop in value from 2005 until now.

    I think Morgan Kelly said up to 80% drop not every house/apartment. So the likes of the 1 bed apartments in Longford will be down by 80% (when people start buying them), but 3/4 bed houses in south Dublin, parts of Cork/Galway which are down 55/60% already may stay around that level.

    Moody's are working on old data and are saying a 20% drop from the current prices which would be a 60% drop from peak to trough.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-14/moody-s-says-irish-home-prices-to-fall-20-more-total-drop-60-.html


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