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Ade's Sports Tipping Log (No football)
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17-06-2012 2:06pm#1
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WWE No Way Out (PPV), oh yeah, you all thought I was joking.. didn't ya!
Only one match I'm not entirely confident about, and that's the triple threat match. Can't see Kane winning it whatsoever. He's been thrown in I feel so that Punk can easily lose the Championship without being pinned, and thus making him still look strong. With that said, I feel Bryan will win @ 11/8. There are only two winners in this for me, him or CM Punk @ Evens retaining the title. You could very well cover you're loss here and have money on both if you wish.
There is another important factor, and her AJ is her name :pac:. She will help Bryan to the title I feel.
Finally, there are two other matches which I won't go into detail with, and that's
Christian v Cody Rhodes and Sheamus vs Dolph Ziggler. I feel Christian is the banker bet tonight @ 4/9, and Sheamus should be good for the win as well @ 2/7.
I've only just given a very brief background into this match.
Gone for the following two bets which will hopefully leave me in profit.
Daniel Byran @ 11/8 with a small stake of 15 euro
Sheamus and Christian @ a tad under Evens, 25 euro
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Re: Basketball write up should be up around midnight at the latest.0 -
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Sorry lads, golf is gripping viewing plus still deciding on other bet.what about overs?
Miami at home. First game at home out of three. Feel they will try to slow this game down and focus more on defence but at the same time OKC you'd like to think won't be bad on the offence. So, yeah, flip of a coin HS.Who offers the player markets?
Those contes, PP
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Can you link me Kyro cant see it anywere??
http://www.bet365.com/home/FlashGen4/WebConsoleApp.asp?&cb=21281
hmmm, the link brings you to in play....
eh here
http://gyazo.com/1944848d5d9984a2737ea4eaa7a6bf8b.png?1339977109
Go to basketball in the main menu, and choose player performance from the options0 -
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Well, I'm absolutely shattered. Been a long sporting weekend worth of viewing, and last night wasn't good betting wise .. at least early on. Watched the golf mostly, so can't give comment entirely.
Christian + Sheamus Won and Daniel Byran lost in the wrestling.
L and W
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In the b-ball, well, I wished I went with my gut instinct instead of being a bit of a fancy dan and going with a bet I've never had much luck in in over 4 years, 2 wins out 8 I'd guess now in the Player Points O/U. Tbh, I started looking into bets with a little under an hour till tip off, spent 35 mins researching as I just wanted to watch the golf, usually I spend at least an hour researching. So in that regards, I got what I deserved somewhat.
Durant finished on 25 points but what was the killer was him giving away fouls and subsequently being benched. If he were more disciplined, the Points Total bet would have been in comfortably.
My cousin lost his bet, as did the majority of punters seemingly, going by the bookies in Vegas too. OKC +4 was the play for many last night.
L
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Onto the golf. Anybody on Twitter or certainly on Skype can vouch how many times I've said it. I'm sure I've mentioned it on the forum too (probably when Tiger won me money back at Bay Hill a few months ago the last time). June is onwards is when I kick into gear with the golf bets. Bar 2010, I've never had not had one win. After tonight, I can still say that. 6 winners (+2 Sunday winners) last year from June onwards, and we're off to a flyer this year
Thankfully last night, Webb Simpson came up trumps for me netting me a nice 510 euros as posted in the US Open betting thread. Covers losses in the Euros and last night too while leaving some nice change to boot. Delighted.
W
David Toms, my tip/bet for last week's tourney had me fuming for a lot of that tourney it must be said as I had not bet on him this week. Finished tied 4th in the end. So E/W money could have come in had I stuck with him, but sure I can't complain.
So yeah, disappointed in the b'ball and wrasslin'(somewhat). But golf saves the day.
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Don't think there'll be any bets going up today (Wimbledon begins today but I just want a bit of a breather, will look at it from round 2 onwards). Will look at Game 3 at some point later today in full to analysis everything more clearly. Will have my bet on Game 4 up much earlier tomorrow.
Just watched the game. OKC really should have won. More dodgy calls against them :S I'll go into it later for sure.0 -
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Game 4, Oklahoma City Thunder @ Miami Heat in NBA Playoff Finals (1-2)
I watched the entire game from Monday night earlier on, well one half last night and one half this morning. So let's look at it.
OKC has been up in all 3 games, won one of them. OKC was up by 10 in the last game and had Miami on the ropes when they were forced to sit Durant with 4 fouls in the 3rd Quarter. That was the killer plus some sloppy plays as well.
OKC has proven that they are at least as good as Miami in all 3 games. Durant rarely gets into foul trouble, especially that early. He will not be in foul trouble like that again. The kid learns quick.. I think Coach Brooks learned that against this Miami team, he cannot sit both Westbrook and Durant together that long. He's been brilliant in making adjustments this post season and I expect that to continue. Sure look the improvement in the first half of Game 3 compared to previous. They only trailed by a single point.
Also, Harden has only played well in 1 of the 3 games. Harden is a really, really good player and Miami has done nothing to stop him, he's just playing poorly. He should play better in game 4.
OKC has been down in this playoffs a ton. They've trailed games by 13, 15 and 18 and came back to win the game. They've been down to the Spurs 2-0 and came back to win the series after winning 4 on the bounce. A San Antonio team that had won 20 straight and was playing better than any team in the NBA, including the Heat. So OKC can bounce back. They will not lie down and call it quits. The only frustration to this point I've seen on their faces has to do with bad calls, some sloppy turnovers and to be fair, poor free throws.
OKC have just made too many mistakes and haven’t been able to capitalize on Miami’s mis-steps, because they have too many of their own.
As I've stressed before, it's damn hard to beat a team 4 times on the bounce. Miami couldn't do it to my NY Knicks nor the feckin' Pacers(!) in the regular season. The OKC showed they can win a game on the road to take it back to Oklahoma for Game 6 and possibly 7. As said the other night, Miami have been great with their backs against the wall but seem to drop a level when all things point to them, and it's do or die time for OKC I feel now.
Oklahoma City Thunder Over +94.5 @ 5/6 (medium stake)
Oklahoma City Thunder Win @ 27/20 (small stake)
They've been too good to me over the past 2 years. I owe it to them to have these bets on them. OKC UP!0 -
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I'll summarise Game 4 in my Game 5 write up.
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Golf - BMW International (European Tour) and Travellers Championship (PGA Tour)
BMW International -
Ross Fisher @ 16/1
I always stress when it comes to the European Tour and betting that for me at least, it's a different scene all together with very mixed results over the past 6 years. I just have never been able to carve out any consistency. Tend to get E/W more so than anything, unlike the PGA Tour where I've generally leaned to in the past as it's been more than profitable over the years given the set up of courses and quality of players. There are a few tourneys in Europe I've done well in the past however.
But this week I love the look of Ross Fisher, who is best priced @ 16/1 at the time of putting money on him. I could just C and P from elsewhere, but meh. Not my style folks and if I ever do, I give credit to the original source
Of course I do reference at times, so credit in this regards goes to www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk , despite me having my bet up before them They have a good write up on him there too if you click on their site. Likewise on Keegan Bradley stateside for that matter.
Anywhoo, with Fisher, he has finally gotten used to the adjustments in his actual game and equipment, the latter he's admitted to have struggled getting used to. You have to stock of his last two finishes on Tour now. Finished 6th in the Wales Open at Celtic Manor and then the week following that, he finished 2nd up in Sweden. He did not play at the US Open, so I hope him missing out on that doesn't derail him slightly. I suppose you could say he'll be rearing to go, but players react differently in these situations so you never know really till they get out on Thursday. Based on the shape of his game and his form though, worth a bet for sure.
Travellers Championship -
This tourney brings back happy memories for me. The TPC @ River Highlands course has seen two of my picks over the years winning, last year Freddie Jacobsen did the business for me (as can be referenced by searching for last year's thread) and Stewart Cink back in 2008.
TPC River Highlands is one of the easier courses on the PGA Tour. Scoring will be at a premium this week as can be seen by the previous winning scores. The last 5 years have seen scores of -20, -14, -22, -18 and -15. Accuracy isn't the be all to end all on the course.
Freddie Jacobsen @ 28/1
Freddie is looking ominous. I was impressed with the Swede’s play last week finishing 15th in the US Open and he is the defending champ this week so he knows his way around the course. Jacobson has three top-30 finishes in his last four PGA Tour events. Odds have shortened and might drop to as low as 22/1 I feel before tomorrow's opening round. He made me money here last year, so I shall stick with the Swede this year again once again.
Keegan Bradley @ 35/1
I'm fairly sure I've mentioned it a few times late last year/early this year on boards and on Twitter, but the core of my season bets across the pond are based on a few guys - Webb Simpson, Keegan Bradley and Martin Laird.
This season he has made 13 cuts from 16 starts. From those 13 events he has posted ten Top 25's! He didn't have a great US Open by any means, I don't think he has the game to win an US Open unless the conditions suit like McIlroy last year IMO(!) so I wouldn't take much notice of that. Being an aggressive player should suit him here. So I'm quite confident like Jacobsen he'll be well in the mix come Sunday.
Andres Romero @ 50/1 E/W
There a few guys who I keep note of for specific tourneys. This week, with it being a birdie fest. Andres Romero is one of those guys for me over the years. He's been a good E/W bet a fair few times unlike another golfer of his sort, Carl Petterson who has delivered on the W's.0 -
Game 5, Oklahoma City Thunder @ Miami Heat in NBA Playoff Finals (1-3)
Can history be made tonight with the Thunder bouncing back and overturning a 3-1 deficit for the first time in NBA Final history? That is the question for some, for the majority. It's series over. Ever since I properly got into basketball back in 2004 (loved the computer games for near a decade before that time) I've been told defence and experience wins you championships. Last year, Miami were the less experienced side compared to the veterans that are the Dallas Mavericks. Dallas came back and won that series when the chips were down. OKC have a far harder task tonight. This year, Miami have shown the signs that they have matured collectively. That said they have got many decisions at critical moments in games that are a bit, well, dodgy to say the least but nonetheless I digress.
Game 4 was a massive chance blown by the Thunder. Up by a whopping 17 points, the Heat responded by 10 straight points on the bounce and from there on in, chipped away to eventually overhaul them. Westbrook had a stormer but his game was blemished by a foolish fool with seconds remaining in the 4th quarter where OKC were 3 points down to drag the match into overtime. While hard to brush that mistake aside, it truly was a stunning game from the youngster. To emphasis how good he was, note the pics below. Says it all -
Durant had a decent game scoring wise, shooting 28 points but the rest his his and Westbrook's teammates did next to nowt. Harden in particular has stunk out the joint for the last two games. That layup he missed in the 3rd quarter summed it up. If he had even an average game. OKC would have took Game 4.
On the Miami side, Super Mario Chalmers came up big time for the Heat. But the rest of the team all round was consistent scoring wise. LeBron was in pain the fourth quarter but that 3 pointer, while a dagger to the the heart of anyone wanting OKC to win Game 4 and/or the series, it was clutch. I don't begrudge the guy of getting his ring. It's a bit of a Ronaldo situation with LeBron. When on fire, with less of the theatrics, it's great to watching being a basketball.
As for tonight, it's quite simple. The only chance is for certain players from OKC to show up. Urgency is a great motivational factor, while at the same time, IF Miami go in with a complacent attitude thinking it's all over. If Miami do that. OKC has a chance. If there's an edge to this, it's harder to close (out a Finals) at home. History has shown that. If it go to Game 6, I don't see OKC losing and then Game 7 is a flip of the coin. That's all if's and but's I realise that but you have to cover every ground when betting. If you do think OKC will win Game 5. it's @ 6/5. No value in that, but if you want real value and have some money to throw around... Thunder to win the series is @ 17/4 currently. I expect that to be closer to 5/1 come tip off. I stress the throw around part of the sentence above.
At present I'm currently favouring Thunder Total Points as well as Overs (headshot you coward, stay away :pac:). I'll probably will go for 2 bets once again, afterall, I've made my money big time and feel no need in squandering it away with large bets at this stage.
Bets should be up later this evening.0 -
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thought you said ade that unders is thy bet in the basketball
What?How confident are you on the over 193.5 Ade?
Considering a semi-large wager on over 185.5 @ 3/10.
Looking at it the over/under line is at 95.5 for the Thunder and 98.5 for the Heat so it seems the bookies are anticipating somewhere about the 192-195 mark to be scored and going by your pick this seems like a reasonable punt to take.
Tbh I'd say out of 10, 6/7 out of 10.
Talking to my basketball crazed, gambler cousin across the pond. He feels there are a lot of traps tonight, and feels it's not worth risking any large stakes on the lines the bookies have set out for us. He's gone for a small stake, which for me is a large stake bet :pac: But if he's going for a small bet I take notice of it as he knows his stuff.
The team total was interesting me again earlier admittedly.
Not sure if I've helped Tonight really is a flip of the coin in most cases compared to all the other games I've covered on boards up till now. 0
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