constituency boundary changes

Firblog

What do ppl think of the changes - Bundoran & Ballyshannon to 'move' & who do ppl think would get elected (i.e. 2SF 1FF 1FG 1LAB ??) if this goes ahead?

overshoot

its an awkward one alright (geographically), i think with the reduction in dail numbers, there wouldnt be enough for 6seater(and do any exist now?) or too many for a 5 seater. looking at a map (about half way down this page) it not going by counties anymore, louth takes a chunk out of meath, meath out of westmeath and so on.

joehugh (fg) took 12000, mcloughlin sf 9500 and mcconalogue 9000 in the last count in NE, harte not too far off for labour 7200.
doherty,sf 14000, mcginley fg 11,300 and pringle ind 10,100 with o'donnell ff on 8800, mcbrearty was a long way off for labour.
from that you would expect 2sf id say for definate, 2fg and 1ff, but i could just as easily see 2ff 1fg depending on the next few years. think labour are too far off and pringle will be the existing one to lose out

edit, wait o'donnell is ballyshannon isnt he? that would be him out, cant see coughlin near getting in again

cosanostra

Brian O Domhnaill is in the Falcarragh area!

I can see there being 2 SF but they will run a 3rd possibly Cora Harvey to collect votes out of Stranolar to Donegal town area be very hard for SF to get a 3rd in a 5 seater

FG will struggle to retain the 2 seats, Dinny will be retiring by next election and they have nobody in place or coming up to replace him.

If FG 2nd candidate will come from Inishowen then it will make it difficult for McConologue getting re elected for FF but would get BOD in but if FG run a candidate from DSW then BOD will loose out and McConologue will hold his seat,

Pringle will retain his seat

doc_17

It a crazy breakdown anyway the way it was. Certain parts of the county (ie Finn Valley) haven't had a TD in years.

echo beach

A lot of things make it difficult to predict what will happen in a new five-seat constituency.
First is the long lead-in time. It could be well over three years before we have a general election and a lot can change in that time. A big marker will come in the local elections when we may see new faces (hopefully).
The other factor will be the huge geographical spread of this constituency, possibly the largest in the country. Will votes transfer along party lines or, as I suspect, will they tend to stay in the local area? In bigger constituencies there are more counts and transfers play a vital role in deciding the destination of the last seat or seats.

I don't agree with the assumption that this is the end of Pringle. He now has a much bigger area to scout for votes in and as a sitting TD has the profile and resources to do so. Expect to see him opening an office in Letterkenny and/or Inishowen soon. There are a lot of left-wing votes in NW (e.g in the can't pay, won't pay camp) and not all of them sit comfortably with SF, so he will be looking in that direction.

2 SF seats is the most certain bet, and they will push hard for a third but it will be a big ask.
2 FG and looking for a third should also be the default position of the largest party in the country, especially if they have any ambition of becoming a dominant force, but they lack credible candidates. They badly need a few vibrant, articulate (female?) councillors.
FF still have the organisation in Donegal to take two seats but a lot will depend on how well the party can recover nationally.
Lab are too weak organisationally to take on such a big area, especially if they suffer nationally for unpopular government decisions. If the senate is abolished it has to hurt Harte (and FF's O Domhaill).

Today my prediction is 2 SF, 1 FG, 1 FF, 1 IND but there are just too many unknowns.

overshoot

cosanostra wrote: »

Brian O Domhnaill is in the Falcarragh area!

my bad, i know now who i was thinking of when i said ballyshannon.

think echo beach is along the right lines alright, i just fear that the die hard fianna failers are still around, and in a few years time all could be forgotton and they will be back to 2 seats or more... in saying that i do think the one party attitude had changed though. you may be correct in Pringle holding on, he isnt in a bad position given the current trends when you think about it

im not sure being in labour is the problem for Harte, is anyone else getting annoyed by him, he seems to come out with crap for the sake of it...then again a lot of it is posted on the that which will not be named collection of sensationalist crap

byte

Firblog wrote: »

What do ppl think of the changes - Bundoran & Ballyshannon to 'move' & who do ppl think would get elected (i.e. 2SF 1FF 1FG 1LAB ??) if this goes ahead?

As far as Ballintra, in fact.

mistermouse

I wonder how this will effect South Donegal the Ballyshannon and Bundoran areas, which have a very strong Fianna Fail McEniff connection.

Will this boundary change eventually effect Co Council elections and if not, will the South Donegal Councillors be at a disadvantage being separate in National Elections when providing stuff in Donegal etc

Another example would be Highland Radio's strong listenership in South Donegal even outside their franchise area, could Bundoran candidates really be given time on Highland in Election debates on Highland

Partitioning Donegal in this way only seems to have been done to bring up the Sligo Leitrim Constituancy

Firblog

If you look at the geographical spread of where the current TD's are from, they really are cononcentrated in the Northern part of the county, with Pringle the only TD from the south.

2 SF = Buncrana & Gweedore
2 FG = Gweedore & Carrigart
1 FF = Inishowen
1 IND = Killybegs

O'Domhnaill = Falcarragh
Harte = Letterkenny

There is a huge swathe of the county that may feel that they could do with a more local rep (or that another area has too much)

There is an old saying that all politics is local, seems that both FG & FF have an opportunity to pick candidates geographically (tho thinking back to the by-election there's not much talent there) to pick up local votes from south and west donegal...