Property prices are on the way back up!

Monty Burnz

goodie2shoes wrote: »

LOL:D

Um...ok, buying a property is all about making money. You can't lose! :rolleyes:

StillWaters

daltonmd wrote: »

Taped it earlier. A decent piece on what is happening. Ronan Lyons explaining that various agencies like Daft, Myhome, Esri all use different sources of information but when they all say the same thing it makes a good argument that *maybe* property prices in Dublin are stabilising and in some areas rising.

Nationwide it was a different story.

He said that the real information was in the register.

Now, he explained that 3 months in a row is a good sign, but it would really have to be for about 12 months before we could really say that the Dublin market was "recovering".

Alain McQuaid (stockbroker firm) was a bit more cautious, citing unemploymnet rates, the situation in Europe and the lack of growth as to why he can see more fallls.

Interestingly enough RL mentioned interest rates. He said that buyers now should be prepared for the next ten years, he said if they think they will have 3% rates then this will not happen, he reckons that the average rate will be 6%.

All in all I found it a very balanced, cautious, but realistic view of the market.

Thanks for that. Worth watching on RTE player so. Sounds just like the arguments discussion on this thread.

goodie2shoes

Monty Burnz wrote: »

Um...ok, buying a property is all about making money. You can't lose! :rolleyes:

No. It's not a one-way bet.
I dont believe such a thing exists anymore.

Have you learned nothing!:eek:

goodie2shoes

StillWaters wrote: »

Thanks for that. Worth watching on RTE player so. Sounds just like the arguments discussion on this thread.

that was a pretty lousy synopsis.
better watch RTE Player.;)

spockety

StillWaters wrote: »

I mentioned wage inflation in the context of people mentioning interest rates of 7% or more. If ECB rates go that high, its because the economy is growing too fast, and it needs to be cooled. Economic growth is almost always coupled with wage growth and falling unemployment.

ECB rates are an economic tool, see today how the cut is being used to stimulate growth and get the money markets lending to each other.

If ECB rates go that high, it's because the wider European or German/French economy is growing too fast.

Ireland could still be in the throws of recession, with unsustainable public finances, tax increases etc., and get hit with those kind of rates regardless.

sarkozy

spockety wrote: »

If ECB rates go that high, it's because the wider European or German/French economy is growing too fast.

Ireland could still be in the throws of recession, with unsustainable public finances, tax increases etc., and get hit with those kind of rates regardless.

Exactly. The PT piece made the point that the macroeconomic situation at European level is the major factor which affects the Irish economy and property market.

As someone earlier alluded to, ECB rates (to which Euro countries are bound) are economic monetary policy instruments intended to control the money supply which, in turn, is supposed to temper or ignite economic activity as a means of maintaining economic stability.

Right now, ECB interest rates are low because Euro countries want to keep money in circulation. This is supposed to discourage people from saving money, but this policy is at odds with banks who need to attract deposits for their own business.

So, basically, the ECB has one policy, the banks another.

And in the European context, this is all about Germany and France. Provided their economies do not overheat, ECB rates will remain low but you can be guaranteed they will rise when those countries and other European countries pick up. This does not mean bank interest rates will not rise alongside stable or declining ECB rates because banks are in a different set of circumstances and have a different set of objectives. It seems realistic to expect 5-6% interest rates over the next five years, but I don't think the banks will move too quickly to raise rates as this would further undermine themselves given the number of mortgage-holders in difficulties.

For the housing market, then, the issue is the money supply - and this affects the Irish market because they're not creating debt at the same volumes they used to.

The only thing that will convince them to create more debt is an improvement in the macroeconomic situation (partly because their loan books will improve).

The new data on rising Dublin house prices are tentative to say the least. Three months is not a trend. Twelve months can be a trend, if the data sets actually represent a reasonable picture (you saw John Fitzgerald commenting on how small the data set is). It's conceivable that things are stabilising, in which case the property market(s) will skate along the bottom for a few years in most regions. But it's clear that there are still major vulnerabilities in the European macroeconomic and global macroeconomic outlooks. As an economically dependent country, Ireland will only begin to improve when our neighbours do.

johnwest288

Property Prices on the way back up..........:D:D:D

Nice one!!!! My 2 bed badly built, couldnt swing a cat in apartment is rising in price YIPPEEEEE:P:P:P

And people telling me an apartment was a bad investment :mad:

IN YOUR FACE:cool::cool::P:pac:

Victor

goodie2shoes wrote: »

that was a pretty lousy synopsis.
better watch RTE Player.;)

Constructive posts only please.

jmayo

goodie2shoes wrote: »

HOUSE prices increased by 0.2pc in May with Dublin up for a third month in a row although year-on-year there was a drop.

According to the latest figures from the Central Statistics Office, the 0.2pc increase in May compares with a drop of 1.1pc in April and 1.2pc in May of last year.

National prices fell by 15.3pc in the year ended May.

And in Dublin, prices were 17.5pc lower than a year ago.

The price of properties excluding Dublin rose by 0.1pc in May compared with a decline of 2.1pc in May last year.

Dublin house prices are 55pc lower than at their highest level in 2007.

Dublin apartment prices are 61pc lower than in February of the same year.

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/house-prices-up-02pc-in-may-but-dublin-climbs-for-third-month-in-row-3149448.html

So does the OP and all the other "property has bottomed out" proponents
have any comment on the latest figures which show prices declined in the capital by 1% in June ?

Residential property prices fell by 1.1% nationally last month.

Despite the cost of buying property rising in Dublin between from March to May the figures for June show prices declined in the capital by 1%.

In the 12 month period up to last month prices fell by 14.4% nationally.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0724/property-prices-fall-again-in-dublin-nationally-business.html

BTW I don't expect any response from the OP since they don't answer any points that condradict their opinion on property prices, but some others may have the decency to respond on the latest figures.

Roxee

From Today's Irish Indo.


http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/house-prices-began-to-slide-again-in-june-after-first-increase-since-property-crash-3179345.html



HOUSE prices began to slide again last month after the first increase since the property crash hit hard in early 2007.

Official figures revealed the average cost of a home is down by 14.4pc over the last 12 months and down 1.1pc last month alone.

That drop is a return to the long-running trend of collapsing prices which hit the market over the last five years.

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) said that property was down by 0.8pc in Dublin and 1pc in the rest of the country in June.

Overall, property prices are now half of what they were in early 2007, the CSO said.

Although the statistics body does not give actual prices, houses in Dublin were believed to be worth about €431,000 at the height of the boom and over the last five years have had €245,670 wiped off the value.

The June review found that the impact of the crash outside Dublin is less severe with prices down 47pc, while apartments buyers and investors have been hard hit with values in Dublin 62pc down on the peak.

There had been hints of recovery in May as the CSO reported an overall increase of 0.2pc.

Davy stockbrokers said the report confirmed that suggestions of a turnaround in the property market had been premature.

They also noted that the June drop more than reverses the slight increase seen in May and with weak bank lending, high unemployment and oversupply there is no sign of a turning point in the Dublin market and overall prices will come down further.

jmayo

I remember when the last figures came out, RTE had people on Morning Ireland and some of the other Radio and TV shows discussing the new figures.

I didn't hear anyone discussing the figures this morning.
Isn't it marvellous what version of economics and news our media pushes.

A bit like around here where we have no threads appearing full of lowtime posters telling us all how property was on the up and only fools or followers of herds would not be investing :rolleyes:

GalwayMagpie

Great time to buy! Mortgage interest relief ends in December.
You can't but win!!

Don’t delay kids. Get into debt today!



wait what is that you say?.. dead cat bounce?...what is that?.... :eek:


A fool and his money.....

MysticalRain

jmayo wrote: »

I remember when the last figures came out, RTE had people on Morning Ireland and some of the other Radio and TV shows discussing the new figures.

I didn't hear anyone discussing the figures this morning.
Isn't it marvellous what version of economics and news our media pushes.

A bit like around here where we have no threads appearing full of lowtime posters telling us all how property was on the up and only fools or followers of herds would not be investing :rolleyes:

I had to laugh at the RTE reporters breathlessly asking "when will we see the property market begin to rise again" after the last report was released. As if rising house prices are some how good for the economy. It makes about as much sense as cheering on the rising price of oil. All that does is leech money out of peoples pockets and into the hands of the select few who happen to make a living from selling houses. It has no benefit for the rest of us.

irbx

just my 2 cent's. i am thinking the figures for may would inculded the 100 propertys that nama sold with 20% discount if decrease in 5 years time.

http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2012/05/09/nama-scheme-increases-recorded-property-sales-prices-by-approximately-75/

Mr. Loverman

jmayo wrote: »

I remember when the last figures came out, RTE had people on Morning Ireland and some of the other Radio and TV shows discussing the new figures.

I didn't hear anyone discussing the figures this morning.
Isn't it marvellous what version of economics and news our media pushes.

A bit like around here where we have no threads appearing full of lowtime posters telling us all how property was on the up and only fools or followers of herds would not be investing :rolleyes:

It goes to show what the mainstream media is - propaganda and entertainment.

You have to go to specialist websites to find the reality now.

Villa05

irbx wrote: »

just my 2 cent's. i am thinking the figures for may would inculded the 100 propertys that nama sold with 20% discount if decrease in 5 years time.

http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2012/05/09/nama-scheme-increases-recorded-property-sales-prices-by-approximately-75/

I don't think so, as it was reported later that most of these were all purchased with cash, therefore no mortgage

The problem is that it seems that few if any of the 32 sales have actually taken advantage of NAMA’s mortgage product and reporting suggests most of the sales have been to cash buyers. NAMA was asked for comment, but has not yet responded.

http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2012/05/23/nama-deferred-mortgage-scheme-a-stunning-success-but-for-all-the-wrong-reasons/

The_Conductor

irbx wrote: »

just my 2 cent's. i am thinking the figures for may would inculded the 100 propertys that nama sold with 20% discount if decrease in 5 years time.

http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2012/05/09/nama-scheme-increases-recorded-property-sales-prices-by-approximately-75/

Even including the 100 NAMA properties- most of which are not in Dublin at all- how does this account for the sudden drop in Dublin prices too? It doesn't. Its all about availability (or lack thereof) of credit, economic fundamentals, and sentiment- all of which are dire, and not going to get much better in the immediate future. Hell- CIE needing a bailout to fund redundancies, thats how bad its gotten- and I'm not even going to begin to imagine whats in December's budget (though the elephant in the room is the property tax........)

Further- yesterday it was announced that collection of the property tax is to be handed over to the Revenue Commissioners, and away from the DoE......... Its an attempt to ensure a reasonable level of compliance. Sounds like another nail in the coffin for property prices to me..........

johnwest288

MysticalRain wrote: »

I had to laugh at the RTE reporters breathlessly asking "when will we see the property market begin to rise again" after the last report was released. As if rising house prices are some how good for the economy. It makes about as much sense as cheering on the rising price of oil. All that does is leech money out of peoples pockets and into the hands of the select few who happen to make a living from selling houses. It has no benefit for the rest of us.

Yeah I never got the "we need to build to get the economy going argument"
Ok so we build...............to build to give people jobs....
Reminds me of the stone walls the landlords used to build up into the mountains in the west of ireland just to give the peasents summit to do

murphaph

smccarrick wrote: »

Further- yesterday it was announced that collection of the property tax is to be handed over to the Revenue Commissioners, and away from the DoE......... Its an attempt to ensure a reasonable level of compliance. Sounds like another nail in the coffin for property prices to me..........

Tbh I fully expect prices to "recover" (to unsustainable levels) as soon as people can start getting their hands on credit again and if they can't then a little later. The reasons for property booms and busts are usually deep seated cultural ones IMO. Most developed nations have (hefty) property taxes, including our nearest neighbour, yet they've had some spectacular busts too. The US is no different.

Most ex-British colonies have a strong tendency towards home ownership (other places too) and Ireland for fairly specific historical reasons has a particular desire for it (intense historical problems with landlords that do not or need not be a problem in 2012).

Even if people can't get credit, they'll save and sacrifice the holidays in Spain for a decade to "get on that ladder". A properly regulated rental sector is direly needed to provide a real alternative in the minds of the (majority?) who feel that being dependent on a landlord as one enters retirement and old age is something they cannot countenance.

jmayo

johnwest288 wrote: »

Yeah I never got the "we need to build to get the economy going argument"
Ok so we build...............to build to give people jobs....
Reminds me of the stone walls the landlords used to build up into the mountains in the west of ireland just to give the peasents summit to do

You do know that many of these follies were built during the famine because it was felt people should have to do something for the bit of food they were being thrown.

murphaph wrote: »

Tbh I fully expect prices to "recover" (to unsustainable levels) as soon as people can start getting their hands on credit again and if they can't then a little later.

Yes that is the idea of it seems most peoples version of a property market related recovery.
But some view a recovery in the property market as a situation where the number of transactions, not prices, have gone back up to what they were say before the bubble took off.

murphaph wrote: »

The reasons for property booms and busts are usually deep seated cultural ones IMO. Most developed nations have (hefty) property taxes, including our nearest neighbour, yet they've had some spectacular busts too. The US is no different.
Most ex-British colonies have a strong tendency towards home ownership (other places too) and Ireland for fairly specific historical reasons has a particular desire for it (intense historical problems with landlords that do not or need not be a problem in 2012).

Even if people can't get credit, they'll save and sacrifice the holidays in Spain for a decade to "get on that ladder". A properly regulated rental sector is direly needed to provide a real alternative in the minds of the (majority?) who feel that being dependent on a landlord as one enters retirement and old age is something they cannot countenance.

I think one of the biggest reasons for property bubbles is availablity of cheap credit coupled with the impression that the increasing capital appreciation is a path to easy wealth.
Of course when you add those two to the cultural mindset that the Irish and indeed the British to a lesser extent have that one must aspire to owning property then you are headed to a disaster.

Worse still in Ireland we had never experienced a bubble & burst.
Also because our property prices were starting from a relative low point, we had never experienced downward prices and this was used to feed the myth how we were somehow different. :rolleyes:

goodie2shoes

yet more evidence of a bottoming out.

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/hope-for-property-market-as-prices-rise-for-second-month-in-row-3241629.html

of course most posters on here will not want to accept this.

Duggys Housemate

Interesting, but Dublin continues to fall. The thing is the government is taking money out of the economy year on year, added to the property tax, and the registry will push prices lower next year. It might bottom out sometime next year, but not with those head winds.

goodie2shoes

Duggys Housemate wrote: »

Interesting, but Dublin continues to fall. The thing is the government is taking money out of the economy year on year, added to the property tax, and the registry will push prices lower next year. It might bottom out sometime next year, but not with those head winds.

i think we need to see at least 6 months growth for the herd to become excited again.

Duggys Housemate

goodie2shoes wrote: »

i think we need to see at least 6 months growth for the herd to become excited again.

Pssibly, I expect a bottoming out next year. But that won't mean growth. In the meantime, the property tax should reduce the amount of credit people cn garner, as it will reduce home pay for the duration of the loan, and even more so if the property is expected to increase in price. Simply put a 1000 p/y property tax should reduce the prices of all homes in that range by about 30K ( minus interest I suppose) as income is reduced by 1K a year. Post income-tax income too. It's equivalent to a wage reduction. Other tax increases will have this effect too, and a more accurate registry will cause asking prices to drop.

Duggys Housemate

But, all that aside, property is fairly valued.

Zamboni

goodie2shoes wrote: »

yet more evidence of a bottoming out.

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/hope-for-property-market-as-prices-rise-for-second-month-in-row-3241629.html

of course most posters on here will not want to accept this.

Three key factors that can potentially affect the market coming up just in the next 12-13 weeks (leaving out the usual banks not lending/unemployment/emigration etc).

September - The introduction of a apparently transparent property price register.
November/December - The introduction of an currently non detailed property tax.
January - The expiry of Mortgage Interest Relief for First Time Buyers

goodie2shoes

i think there is excellent value to be had in the apartment sector. there appears to no shortage of 'er "professional" tenants.
i am seriously thinking about dipping my toe in again and buying a couple.

Am I mad?

Duggys Housemate

goodie2shoes wrote: »

i think there is excellent value to be had in the apartment sector. there appears to no shortage of 'er "professional" tenants.
i am seriously thinking about dipping my toe in again and buying a couple.

Am I mad?

next year.

goodie2shoes

goodie2shoes wrote: »

i think there is excellent value to be had in the apartment sector. there appears to no shortage of 'er "professional" tenants.
i am seriously thinking about dipping my toe in again and buying a couple.

Am I mad?

CLARIFICATION: I was of course thinking of buying a couple of apartments, and not a couple (however professional).

Jumpaddict