Property prices are on the way back up!

goodie2shoes

Monty Burnz wrote: »

Looking at your posts on Boards.ie, that isn't exactly true - so I find this claim about your property empire a little hard to believe. To put it mildly.

whatever you want to believe Monty, that's fine by me.

anyway like i said "people keep renting. you know its makes sense!"

Duggys Housemate

seamus wrote: »

C
I find it odd that some people seem to think if we ignore the property issue, it will just go away. Any economy which is growing requires physical infrastructure to facilitate that growth. That's where the property industry comes in. It's part of the overall package, not some solitary industry.

Construction led growth would be ok for infrastructure. However, I doubt that there is an undersupply of housing in Dublin, as yet. The house buying population is emigrating.

Monty Burnz

goodie2shoes wrote: »

whatever you want to believe Monty, that's fine by me.

Indeed. And whatever you want to post is fine by me too - just don't expect people to swallow it.

goodie2shoes wrote: »

anyway like i said "people keep renting. you know its makes sense!"

It does indeed.

Duggys Housemate

goodie2shoes wrote: »

whatever you want to believe Monty, that's fine by me.

anyway like i said "people keep renting. you know its makes sense!"

You protest too much methinks. You admit to being "still at work" i.e. you have a work colleague who has spent 100K in the last decade as opposed to buying a property and being 200K in the red. So you clearly have to work, and unlike most of Ireland property magnates you therefore don't have much property. They lived off it.

I 'd say you are in the red.

In any case property will not always be a bad bet but it probably is now. Lets see if the Euro collapses, tax on income increases, and there are property charges on second houses - I suspect that the property tariff will be made more populist by hitting the top 10 percent,a nd people with 3 or more houses the very hardest. Also there is the emigration of people who would be in a buying age, or a renting age.

Another fifty K to go, might be worth buying in a year or two, the big issue is the Euro.

goodie2shoes

Duggys Housemate wrote: »

You protest too much methinks. You admit to being "still at work" i.e. you have a work colleague who has spent 100K in the last decade as opposed to buying a property and being 200K in the red. So you clearly have to work, and unlike most of Ireland property magnates you therefore don't have much property. They lived off it.

I 'd say you are in the red.

In any case property will not always be a bad bet but it probably is now. Lets see if the Euro collapses, tax on income increases, and there are property charges on second houses - I suspect that the property tariff will be made more populist by hitting the top 10 percent,a nd people with 3 or more houses the very hardest. Also there is the emigration of people who would be in a buying age, or a renting age.

Another fifty K to go, might be worth buying in a year or two, the big issue is the Euro.

i work part-time, and the only reason i do is to get out of the house. i don't need the income tbh. i would not describe myself as a property magnate (whatever that is/was?) i never said i was. that is simply your (mis)interpretation/prejudice.
i luckily bought property in the '90s and am now totally mortgage free, thanks to my tenants and also the fact that i (luckily) sold a few apartments before the crash.
personally i think it is a very good time to buy, but if people don't agree and want to continue renting that's fine. they can continue to work to pay off other people's mortgages &/or inflate other's bank balances.
regarding the Euro, who knows wtf will happen there, but my guess is it's too big to allow it to fail, so they'll eventually come up with some "solution".

Monty Burnz

goodie2shoes wrote: »

personally i think it is a very good time to buy, but if people don't agree and want to continue renting that's fine. they can continue to work to pay off other people's mortgages &/or inflate other's bank balances.

Yes, and the landlords can worry about the falling value of their property, all maintenance issues, property taxes, fixing stuff that breaks, insurance, and of course finding someone to rent in these days of emigration, falling real incomes and cuts to rent allowance.

Mortgage interest is dead money, as you know.

Duggys Housemate

goodie2shoes wrote: »

i work part-time, and the only reason i do is to get out of the house. i don't need the income tbh. i would not describe myself as a property magnate (whatever that is/was?) i never said i was. that is simply your (mis)interpretation/prejudice.
i luckily bought property in the '90s and am now totally mortgage free, thanks to my tenants and also the fact that i (luckily) sold a few apartments before the crash.
personally i think it is a very good time to buy, but if people don't agree and want to continue renting that's fine. they can continue to work to pay off other people's mortgages &/or inflate other's bank balances.
regarding the Euro, who knows wtf will happen there, but my guess is it's too big to allow it to fail, so they'll eventually come up with some "solution".

Ok, good man, you were lucky, or smart in your house buying. Understand that people like you - the "rent is dead money" ideology - caused a huge amount of grief in the 00's.

That said, there will be a good time to buy, it might be now, it might be next year or the next, but soon. I think the Euro will collapse as it happens, so I would stay out for now.

daltonmd

goodie2shoes wrote: »

as a landlord who has benefited greatly from my tenants' monthly contributions, i encourage folk to rent all the time.

every morning i turn over for my second sleep happy in the knowledge they are battling through commuter traffic to pay my rent.

my tenants are great and i love them all.
God Bless 'em!:D

I'm sure they love not being in Negative Equity as much

goodie2shoes

seamus wrote: »

That's fine, but the article says absolutely nothing like that.

This seems to be the mistake a lot of people are making. Rather than actually read the article, it would appear that you've see a few choice words in it and then interpreted it as some "buy now" cheerleader for another bubble and then making wild statements about greedy builders, bankers and politicians.

People sticking their fingers in their ears and going, "Lalalalala, nothing's happening, ignore the figures, it'll keep going the way I say it will". Sound familiar?

Totally agree Seamus. The flock/herd mentality once it has moved its' position, will not allow contradictory comment. This is a fairly well known psychological phenomenon. (Columbia Uni has done quite a bit of research into it i recall).

It is funny to watch nevertheless.:D

Monty Burnz

goodie2shoes wrote: »

Totally agree Seamus. The flock/herd mentality once it has moved its' position, will not allow contradictory comment. This is a fairly well known psychological phenomenon. (Columbia Uni has done quite a bit of research into it i recall).

Can you remember the researchers involved? Google it if you have to.

goodie2shoes wrote: »

It is funny to watch nevertheless.:D

Yes, and it's also quite funny trying to watch people steer public opinion with little posts on a forum. It didn't work for those of us who were warning about the coming disaster back in the early 2000s, and I don't think it will work for you now.

daltonmd

goodie2shoes wrote: »

whatever you want to believe Monty, that's fine by me.

anyway like i said "people keep renting. you know its makes sense!"

Huh!! Thought you said to buy.

daltonmd

goodie2shoes wrote: »

i work part-time, and the only reason i do is to get out of the house. i don't need the income tbh. i would not describe myself as a property magnate (whatever that is/was?) i never said i was. that is simply your (mis)interpretation/prejudice.
i luckily bought property in the '90s and am now totally mortgage free, thanks to my tenants and also the fact that i (luckily) sold a few apartments before the crash.
personally i think it is a very good time to buy, but if people don't agree and want to continue renting that's fine. they can continue to work to pay off other people's mortgages &/or inflate other's bank balances.
regarding the Euro, who knows wtf will happen there, but my guess is it's too big to allow it to fail, so they'll eventually come up with some "solution".

But you're wrong. People who rent pay for a service. It may have been the case with high rents and low costs for landlords during the boom, that's not the case for many many landlords now.

Whatever happens anyone who didn't buy in the last 10 years is in a perfect position, they can move when they want, scale up, scale down, rent in locations that they may want to buy in the future.

They haven't lost, they will never lose because house prices won't see growth that it experienced during the boom.

Of course money will be more expensive to borrow - but this can only mean that house prices are going one way long term - and that is down.

Jame Gumb

Nobody can predict what the property market will look like in 2020.

Anybody who claims that they can has an agenda.

goodie2shoes

Duggys Housemate wrote: »

Ok, good man, you were lucky, or smart in your house buying. Understand that people like you - the "rent is dead money" ideology - caused a huge amount of grief in the 00's.

That said, there will be a good time to buy, it might be now, it might be next year or the next, but soon. I think the Euro will collapse as it happens, so I would stay out for now.

i respect your opinion. Who knows if this year or next, or even 5 years time is the time to buy. What i find amusing is all these property-gurus are now so convinced of their position.
i dont believe i was particularily clever. i know much smarter guys than me with PhDs in Economics, Science or IT who lost their shirts (metaphorically speaking). But then how does one measure intelligence? Some people think enriching a landlord is an intelligent thing to do?:eek:

i do believe the euro will be saved, as the cost of unraveling it will be unthinkable, and Germany stands to lose as much as anybody. The DM would appreciate hugely, and folk like me will be even less inclined to buy their nice cars.

Degsy

goodie2shoes wrote: »

No he's just turned 50 actually, having availed of the Govt's very generous early retirement package. FYI he was "retired" all of 3 days as he had a good paying job lined-up even before he quit the Gardaí.

He bought the apt. at a very good price, as the landlord owner was desperate to sell and needed a quick sale.

Believe what you want. I wasn't insulting your intelligence. I dont think I could.;)

What "early retirement" scheme allows you to retire at 50?

No,no..before you turn 50?

I know there was a scheme where you could retire at 55 with 30 years service but that was withdrawn the year before last..so he was 47 when he retired?

With 30 years service?

So he was an acting member of the Gardai at 17 years of age?

Anyway,he decided that it was a good place to buy,in Dublin 6,in the middle of a falling property market because he wanted his college-going son to have somewhere to live?

He didnt buy a house,though,he bought an apartment..presumably because he figured an apartment would be better in the long term than a house,yeah?

And this guy was a guard?


You're talking out your hole my friend..

Catweasel

goodie2shoes wrote: »

i luckily bought property in the '90s

I suppose the question is, what criteria did you use as part of your decision to invest in property back then and are similar conditions now prevailing?

Monty Burnz

goodie2shoes wrote: »

Some people think enriching a landlord is an intelligent thing to do?:eek:

I've told this story on boards before - this was me enriching landlords:

Dublin 2001-2007 - rented. House I was in was valued at 700k in 2006. Landlord chose not to sell but buy more property. If he sold and put the cash in a bank he would have made 28k per year. A mortgage for that property would probably have cost 36k per year. He was effectively subsidising me living in a nice house to the tune of 20k per year. After I moved out and the market crashed, he sold the house...eventually. For 340k or so. If I had bought it from him, I'd have 360k of negative equity (assuming 100% mortgage).

And of course mortgage interest is dead money.

Theboinkmaster

goodie2shoes wrote: »

they can continue to work to pay off other people's mortgages &/or inflate other's bank balances.

I don't know why other people are bothering responding to you. You just selectively ignore people making rational arguments with sound economic reasoning.

Think you're a troll with too much time on their hands.

goodie2shoes

Catweasel wrote: »

I suppose the question is, what criteria did you use as part of your decision to invest in property back then and are similar conditions now prevailing?

location, rentability, value for money. if you get K appreciation, then that's a bonus.

my advice to anybody would be to structure the mortgage over a short a period as possible

so long as your tenants are paying your mortgage then it's happy days. in 10 or 15 years you'll own an asset which you can either sell or continue to give you an income. it's not nuclear physics (which is good cos i was useless at physics).;)

Zamboni

seamus wrote: »

Of course it won't happen by focussing on property, but house prices aside improving the state of our property industry will assist in the economy's recovery because the vast majority of those 14% unemployed came from the construction sector.
If nothing else, a return to normal (pre-boom) construction levels will provide employment for a group of people who've had particular difficulty locating any.

I'm reminded of the the parable of the broken window...

christmas2012

if people rush out like lemmings and believe the hype - then the power is in the hands of the sellers,there is a property stand off at the moment people arent buying - and lets hope that continues - as it means prices will stay low

noxqs

Prices go up with not even a SINGLE digit ? 0.2% with hardly any sales and mortgage draw downs...

.. And you've got people nearly throwing themselves at the banks with weird rationalizations that now its a good time to buy.

Jesus, people. This is why Ireland will never have a stable economy.

christmas2012

over reliance on property for a start - the worst kind of stability full of property sharks and other types of business sharks,and greasy auctioneers salivating at the thought of a few digit increase..

down is where they should stay - were still in a recession and people are still losing their jobs,there are economists who are equally talking it up which is damaging and irresponsible,maybe they have second homes to flog as the bought in the boom and want to hype up the prices..

Caseywhale

robd wrote: »

As an other posted replied, it did die naturally. It was dead over 12 months before world economy collapsed. I predicted the crash, albeit I was early out, which is they way you want it. You got to leave something for the next guy. I did not predict the extent of the crash, or the Euro problems.

They shear scale of the price rises and the cost versus wages was unreal at the top of the bubble. It was a seriously dangerous position. To think anything else is to not understand cheap credit and binging. The worst thing is the modern finance system encourages this to the benefit of few elite. The average man has ended up with no job, debt up to their eyes, depression and even suicide. The human side to the disgusting system we created.

I'm not a gambler. I'm cautious. Big difference.

I bailed around the time when Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac among others started their "little" episodes.
I figured that was the red light at the end of the road for us here too.
No way did I think it would get as bad as it did.
But I'm getting back in now. I may be wrong, but I think i've made enough money at this game and had enough experience at it to value my own opinion over newspapers and celebrity economists for or against the motion.

Its down completely to the yields for me.
They may go up or down from here, but i'm happy with the yield I'm getting now.

StillWaters

Degsy wrote: »

What "early retirement" scheme allows you to retire at 50?

No,no..before you turn 50?

I know there was a scheme where you could retire at 55 with 30 years service but that was withdrawn the year before last..so he was 47 when he retired?

With 30 years service?

So he was an acting member of the Gardai at 17 years of age.....


You're talking out your hole my friend..

How rude!!
Long serving gardai can retire after 25 years.

goodie2shoes

StillWaters wrote: »

How rude!!
Long serving gardai can retire after 25 years.

dont mind deggsy.
he enjoys talkin outta his mouth, but usually makes an a$$ of himself.;)

Catweasel

goodie2shoes wrote: »

location, rentability, value for money. if you get K appreciation, then that's a bonus.

In short you are saying yields but only in decent locations. Personally I'm not seeing decent yield rates in rentable areas near me so I doubt it's the best investment at this point.

NakedNNettles

One just has to laugh, right?

At the pathetic efforts from some lads trying to get the property train rolling again.

0.2% :pac:, its not even close to 1%, laughable stuff!

Europe will continue to be unstable and prices will continue to drop this Winter, now that is a fact!

jmayo

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

I don't know why other people are bothering responding to you. You just selectively ignore people making rational arguments with sound economic reasoning.

Think you're a troll with too much time on their hands.

I give up at this stage as I have asked on at least three occassions goodie2housesshoes to give me some economic indicators that would back up his/her claim that now is a good time to buy and that prices will not continue to fall.
In fact they claim prices will go back up so come on back up that statement.

So far I have been toally ignored and all we hear is of yet another friend, relative, etc that has done well and is going to do well out of property.

I call Bulls***.

goodie2shoes,
if now is such a good time to buy, being a landlord is the great path to riches and you are mortgage free with possible cash reserves, tell us how many properties you are now going to invest in ?

Come on goodie2shoes tell us how many new properties you are buying ?

Monty Burnz

jmayo wrote: »

Come on goodie2shoes tell us how many new properties you are buying ?

I'm not entirely sure that what have been told so far bears any relation to the truth, and I doubt that's about to change...