Property prices are on the way back up!

Duggys Housemate

Well the idea is to fund it with printed money. Printed money is free.

Monty Burnz

Duggys Housemate wrote: »

Well the idea is to fund it with printed money. Printed money is free.

It's not free, it devalues everyone else's money. And why on god's green earth would they give this money to AIB/BOI etc?

Pure fantasy.

goodie2shoes

Duggys Housemate wrote: »

I'd be very surprised if State owned banks, or ECB bailed out banks started 100% mortgages again. I think the ruling classes - Germany, IMF, ECB - would not be impressed. The days of 100% mortgages are gone, and gone for good. You can tell your grandchildren and they can be amazed, for they will never see it again.

sorry mate but you appear not to know your economic history very well. it's littered with similar post boom, hangover-like circumstances where the powers that be said "oh! me frickin head! Never Again!"

and guess what?:D

http://youtu.be/hirGUqxE8nA

latenia

Monty Burnz wrote: »

It's called fantasy, and you are living in dreamworld if you think that people are going swallow property mania for a second time in a decade.

I agree with everything you say except this. The most depressing thing about the country is that people (your friend above being a case in point) still do not understand what has happened and think that the bubble was the good thing and the crash the bad. I'd guess that the majority would sign up for the same sh1te all over again if they had the chance.

latenia

goodie2shoes wrote: »

sorry mate but you appear not to know your economic history very well. it's littered with similar post boom, hangover-like circumstances where the powers that be said "oh! me frickin head! Never Again!"

Get this into your head:

THERE WAS NO BOOM. IT WAS A CREDIT FUELLED ASSET BUBBLE.

This is axiomatic. There is no debate about this fact. You cannot have an opinion about its nature. Cop the fck on.

Duggys Housemate

goodie2shoes wrote: »

sorry mate but you appear not to know your economic history very well. it's littered with similar post boom, hangover-like circumstances where the powers that be said "oh! me frickin head! Never Again!"

and guess what?:D

http://youtu.be/hirGUqxE8nA

This assumes that the same type of boom happens again. Ireland never had a boom in property. And cycles were diminished in 1945 -1970 because of government intervention, the Fed caused a lot of recession in the US to stop inflation getting out of hand. From now on they won't allow 100% mortgages. If AIB, or any bailed out bank even dares to do so, the entire management will be replaced by the owners - which in your scheme would be the Europeans, or the IMF.

100% mortgages are gone.

Duggys Housemate

latenia wrote: »

I agree with everything you say except this. The most depressing thing about the country is that people (your friend above being a case in point) still do not understand what has happened and think that the bubble was the good thing and the crash the bad. I'd guess that the majority would sign up for the same sh1te all over again if they had the chance.

I don't think so, this may happen in a different generation, but even if some of the conditions were met again the system would not boom.

It's not free, it devalues everyone else's money. And why on god's green earth would they give this money to AIB/BOI etc?

Pure fantasy.

In fact that is what central banks do in most monetary unions, take over banks which have defaulted and monitize the debt. It makes sense if we are in a currency union, and our budget is dictated to us that there be a quid pro quo. What won't happen is these State, or ECB owned banks will go on a credit binge again.

goodie2shoes

latenia wrote: »

Get this into your head:

THERE WAS NO BOOM. IT WAS A CREDIT FUELLED ASSET BUBBLE.

This is axiomatic. There is no debate about this fact. You cannot have an opinion about its nature. Cop the fck on.

i think we got a loser here!;)

StillWaters

goodie2shoes wrote: »

latenia wrote: »

Get this into your head:

THERE WAS NO BOOM. IT WAS A CREDIT FUELLED ASSET BUBBLE.

This is axiomatic. There is no debate about this fact. You cannot have an opinion about its nature. Cop the fck on.

i think we got a loser here!;)

You are wrong Latenia, and very rude.
There was a boom which was spectacularly mismanaged leading to a property bubble.

House prices in Ireland were undervalued before the boom, and overvalued during. I believe they are undervalued now, my argument has been made many times on this thread.

As for 100% mortgages, although the work of the devil, never say never, all you need is a new entrant or two in the Irish Market.

goodie2shoes

StillWaters wrote: »

You are wrong Latenia, and very rude.
There was a boom which was spectacularly mismanaged leading to a property bubble.

House prices in Ireland were undervalued before the boom, and overvalued during. I believe they are undervalued now, my argument has been made many times on this thread.

As for 100% mortgages, although the work of the devil, never say never, all you need is a new entrant or two in the Irish Market.

Latenia sounds a tad agrieved tbh (which is understandable given how the economic cycle has affected some folk),
He/she clearly does not have a sound grasp of the subject.
i recommend he/she educates him/herself.
he could start with a book by Bob Brenner titled "The Boom and the Bubble". The author details exactly how a boom becomes a bubble.

Monty Burnz

goodie2shoes wrote: »

Latenia sounds a tad agrieved tbh (which is understandable given how the economic cycle has affected some folk),
He/she clearly does not have a sound grasp of the subject.
i recommend he/she educates him/herself.
he could start with a book by Bob Brenner titled "The Boom and the Bubble". The author details exactly how a boom becomes a bubble.

You seem to be dodging the question as to why the ECB is going to suddenly gift cash to Irish mortgage banks. This ridiculous idea underpins your theory that prices are going to suddenly shoot up.

latenia

goodie2shoes wrote: »

Latenia sounds a tad agrieved tbh (which is understandable given how the economic cycle has affected some folk),
He/she clearly does not have a sound grasp of the subject.
i recommend he/she educates him/herself.
he could start with a book by Bob Brenner titled "The Boom and the Bubble". The author details exactly how a boom becomes a bubble.

If I'm 'aggrieved' about some imaginary financial loss on property then why would I be on here stating that house prices are still overvalued? Surely I'd be talking up the market. The fact is I'm still waiting to buy, even though I could do so tomorrow if I wished. When each passing 6 months gets me a bigger house or a better area I'm in no rush.
The boom from about 1994-1999 resulting from FDI and demographics was almost entirely separate from the bubble of 2000-2007 which was caused by poor monetary policy here and abroad, amongst other factors.
This crash hasn't even begun to get nasty yet-I fully expect a minimum of a further 50% drop, probably a lot more.

Monty Burnz

latenia wrote: »

This crash hasn't even begun to get nasty yet-I fully expect a minimum of a further 50% drop, probably a lot more.

I can see Sinn Fein getting in government some time in the next 2 or 3 years. Things are really going to get exciting then.

Another 50% is probably ott imo.

I do think it's got a way to go to.

50% would be lovely though over the next 5 years. Buy a house with cash and no mortgage!

goodie2shoes

latenia wrote: »

The boom from about 1994-1999 resulting from FDI and demographics was almost entirely separate from the bubble of 2000-2007 which was caused by poor monetary policy here and abroad, amongst other factors.

well at least you agree we did have a property boom, which was followed by a bubble which led to the inevitable burst.

latenia wrote: »

This crash hasn't even begun to get nasty yet-I fully expect a minimum of a further 50% drop, probably a lot more.

well given these daft expectations, i fully understand why you are reacting so badly to news that indicates a tentative recovery.:D

Monty Burnz

goodie2shoes wrote: »

well given these daft expectations, i fully understand why you are reacting so badly to news that indicates a tentative recovery.:D

Any chance you will address the questions about your claims that the ECB is about to hand a load of cash to Irish banks for some reason?

Without explaining where Irish people will borrow hundreds of thousands to buy houses, your argument turns to ashes.

Villa05

goodie2shoes wrote: »

well given these daft expectations, i fully understand why you are reacting so badly to news that indicates a tentative recovery.:D

With over 1,500 potential house buyers leaving the country every week, I see no upsurge in prices.
http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0927/rising-emigration-slows-population-growth-business.html

The recovery is happening - Prices are falling! Of course no asset price correction occurs in a straight line, there will always be a few bumps on the way down

goodie2shoes

Villa05 wrote: »

With over 1,500 potential house buyers leaving the country every week, I see no upsurge in prices.
http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0927/rising-emigration-slows-population-growth-business.html

The recovery is happening - Prices are falling! Of course no asset price correction occurs in a straight line, there will always be a few bumps on the way down

Again you are making false assumptions in support of your "argument".
a sizable percentage of those leaving will return.
it is wrong to assume all of these people are potential house buyers. many of these already own houses here. many men will be leaving families behind, and only emigrating in order to pay their mortgage & bills.
some of those leaving might even return having accumulated cash and decide to buy.

Monty Burnz

goodie2shoes wrote: »

some of those leaving might even return having accumulated cash and decide to buy.

They are going to need cash as the Irish banks have nothing to lend...

StillWaters

A further 50% drop from here!!!!

Your argument has lost credibility. I think that bear pit is way too deep and lonely.

Villa05

tick tock tick........

Some 22pc of the total number of buy-to-let mortgages are three months or more in arrears across all lenders in the market, the Irish Independent has learned. The initial trawl through the investor mortgages of all lenders also indicates that there are around 200,000 buy-to-let mortgage accounts.

Some people have multiple investor mortgages.

How many are interest only and will fail once capital repayments are required.

The tsunami of repossessions cannot be held back forever!!

latenia

goodie2shoes wrote: »

well at least you agree we did have a property boom, which was followed by a bubble which led to the inevitable burst.



well given these daft expectations, i fully understand why you are reacting so badly to news that indicates a tentative recovery.:D

Where did I say there was "a property boom?" There was a tech and pharma boom. You're so delusional you're seeing what you want to see. Prices haven't even corrected to their norms yet let alone crashed below that point and that's before taking into account a destroyed economy. And what news are you talking about? What "tentative recovery?" You're delusional.

goodie2shoes

it's a sad fact, but if those who are leaving are not economically productive, on the rock 'n roll and as such are a burden on the state, then Joan Burton's Dept. will somewhat relieved.

i remember the 80's emigration when many of those people (myself included) got valuable experience abroad, returned home in the 90s and contributed to the Celtic Tiger Boom.

in ways this country has reverted to the 80's. i can feel a SelfAid concert coming on .............

http://youtu.be/_3Rx9p4D8vw

Monty Burnz

goodie2shoes wrote: »

in ways this country has reverted to the 80's. i can feel a SelfAid concert coming on .............

Yes...economic stagnation. Declining productive population. Credit crunch. Plus crippling personal debt that we didn't have in the 80s.

It makes your claims that prices are about to shoot up look a tad...silly.

By the way, why do you think the ECB is about to gift billions to the Irish mortgage banks? You seem to not want to address this question - I've asked four times now.

goodie2shoes

StillWaters wrote: »

A further 50% drop from here!!!!

Your argument has lost credibility. I think that bear pit is way too deep and lonely.

Grrrr!

The_Conductor

Guys, I am 'this' close to closing this thread.
If you want to continue an intelligent debate, read the forum charter, and abide by it.

Regards,

SMcCarrick

StillWaters

Monty Burnz wrote: »

Yes...economic stagnation. Declining productive population. Credit crunch. Plus crippling personal debt that we didn't have in the 80s.

It makes your claims that prices are about to shoot up look a tad...silly.

But we are not in stagnation, nor are we losing productivity.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2012/08/ireland

Monty Burnz

StillWaters wrote: »

But we are not in stagnation, nor are we losing productivity.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2012/08/ireland

We are stagnating, and we are losing productive people. You understand what transfer pricing is?

goodie2shoes

a return to the 80's eh?

• lower labour costs
• flexible labour market
• increasing FDI
• good music
• Govt implementing a program of austerity (i like austerity).
• renewed emphasis on education
• increasing competitiveness
• lower commercial rents

perfect terroir to sow the seeds of another BOOM.:D

Monty Burnz

goodie2shoes wrote: »

a return to the 80's eh?

• lower labour costs
• flexible labour market
• increasing FDI
• good music
• Govt implementing a program of austerity (i like austerity).
• renewed emphasis on education
• increasing competitiveness
• lower commercial rents

perfect terroir to sow the seeds of another BOOM.:D

Can you cite evidence for any of these points beyond the music?

Can you address why you think the ECB is suddenly going to hand money to Irish mortgage banks?

goodie2shoes

Monty Burnz wrote: »

Can you cite evidence for any of these points beyond the music?

Can you address why you think the ECB is suddenly going to hand money to Irish mortgage banks?

this clearly demonstrates why!

Monty Burnz

goodie2shoes wrote: »

this clearly demonstrates why!

I'm sorry to say that's actually the most convincing argument you have managed. And it's not all that convincing.

WhatNowForUs?

Monty Burnz wrote: »

goodie2shoes wrote: »

Latenia sounds a tad agrieved tbh (which is understandable given how the economic cycle has affected some folk),
He/she clearly does not have a sound grasp of the subject.
i recommend he/she educates him/herself.
he could start with a book by Bob Brenner titled "The Boom and the Bubble". The author details exactly how a boom becomes a bubble.

You seem to be dodging the question as to why the ECB is going to suddenly gift cash to Irish mortgage banks. This ridiculous idea underpins your theory that prices are going to suddenly shoot up.

Goodie2 has dodged every question since the start of this thread.

goodie2shoes

WhatNowForUs? wrote: »

Goodie2 has dodged every question since the start of this thread.

the reason i've not answered Monty's question is because I didn't feel it was worthy of dealing with tbh. anyone who keeps themselves abreast of these matters (apart from Lord Ross of Wickla & Monty) would not repeatedly ask such a question imo.

please read this article and inform yourself.:D

http://www.novinite.com/view_news.php?id=143620

http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0927/germany-ratifies-eu-bailout-fund-treaty-business.html

Monty Burnz

goodie2shoes wrote: »

the reason i've not answered Monty's question is because I didn't feel it was worthy of dealing with tbh. anyone who keeps themselves abreast of these matters (apart from Lord Ross of Wickla & Monty) would not repeatedly ask such a question imo.

please read this article and inform yourself.:D

http://www.novinite.com/view_news.php?id=143620

http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0927/germany-ratifies-eu-bailout-fund-treaty-business.html

And in what part of that agreement was there ANY suggestion that Irish mortgage banks would be gifted billions of euros to lend? Do you know what the ESM is for at all?

Did you even read those news reports?

And even if the ESM had anything to do with gifting billions to the mortgage banks (it doesn't), it's looking ropey as to whether it can be applied to the Anglo promissory notes too.

goodie2shoes

Monty Burnz wrote: »

And in what part of that agreement was there ANY suggestion that Irish mortgage banks would be gifted billions of euros to lend? Do you know what the ESM is for at all?

Did you even read those news reports?

And even if the ESM had anything to do with gifting billions to the mortgage banks (it doesn't), it's looking ropey as to whether it can be applied to the Anglo promissory notes too.

it's called a BAILOUT or RESCUE fund.
there's a wee hint in there if you look closely.:rolleyes:

Monty Burnz

goodie2shoes wrote: »

it's called a BAILOUT or RESCUE fund.
there's a wee hint in there if you look closely.:rolleyes:

So you don't know what the ESM is for? Ok, that explains a lot. Perhaps you need to read beyond the headlines.

So: evidence you have provided for billions of euros being gifted to Irish mortgage banks = ZERO.

Perhaps you should go back to posting cartoons?

goodie2shoes

For the love of Jasus.

here is the EU summit press release,

"When an effective single supervisory mechanism is established, involving the ECB, for banks in the euro area the ESM could, following a regular decision, have the possibility to recapitalize banks directly. This would rely on appropriate conditionality, including compliance with state aid rules, which should be institution- specific, sector-specific or economy-wide and would be formalised in a Memorandum of Understanding. "

Nobody said the Northern countries were gonna sign a blank cheque. I mean how could you possibly expect Merkel to agree to that ffs!!!?
Do you have any concept of how real-politics actually operates?:(

noxqs

You do realize that there is a lot of people in mortgage arrears, negative equity, unemployed and falling income. Recapitalization of banks (this is not for retail banks) will not have any immediate effect on the housing prices.

The very real reason for that is that house prices follow income multiples (and thereby generally inflation) of around 2x-2.5x single income over historic average. As this is under serious pressure right now, there is nothing on the immediate horizon that will change that.

Also - there is no chance that credit flood gates will be opened exactly because of risk (income multiple is a way to calculate risk - this wont go up to 7-8x like before, nevermind just to 4).

Recapitalization is not free money, just so you know. Its charged with interest, and its sole purpose is to provide emergency liquidity to outstanding liabilities - such as write downs and roll over of bank debt. This is to prevent a collapse of a bank, not to make it suddenly all healthy and lending. Its a sign of a deep crisis that this needs to be done in the first place, it means the money market as a whole has lost confidence entirely in the lending entity's ability to service its debts and obligations - never mind mark to market writedowns of mortgages and the underlying assets which have dropped 60%.

There is no such thing, as a free lunch.

The_Conductor

goodie2shoes wrote: »

this clearly demonstrates why!

In recognition of your witty insights, you have earned yourself a 1 week posting ban from this forum. If you have any intention of posting in this forum again on the elapse of your ban, please ensure you read the forum charter and abide by it.

Regards,

SMcCarrick

Monty Burnz

goodie2shoes wrote: »

For the love of Jasus.

here is the EU summit press release,

"When an effective single supervisory mechanism is established, involving the ECB, for banks in the euro area the ESM could, following a regular decision, have the possibility to recapitalize banks directly. This would rely on appropriate conditionality, including compliance with state aid rules, which should be institution- specific, sector-specific or economy-wide and would be formalised in a Memorandum of Understanding. "

Nobody said the Northern countries were gonna sign a blank cheque. I mean how could you possibly expect Merkel to agree to that ffs!!!?
Do you have any concept of how real-politics actually operates?:(

But the Irish banks have already been recapitalised. Have you forgotten this already? The reason the ESM deal was hailed as great news for Ireland is because it was thought the Irish government might get back the money they put into the Irish banks, not because new money would be handed to the banks to dole out to the public:

By allowing the ESM to invest directly in failing banks and backdating the deal to include the Irish banks, Irish government debt stands to be reduced by up to €64bn.

That's a third of the projected year-end figure. Even if the ESM only assumes responsibility for the €43bn which the Irish government borrowed to pump into the banks rather than the €20bn which came from the National Pension reserve fund, the government debt would fall by almost one-fifth.

Of course, the latest news is that the net contributors don't even want the Irish state off the hook for that debt:

GERMANY, Finland and the Netherlands yesterday poured cold water on the Government's plans to use the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) to pay for the cost of bailing out our banks.

Finance ministers from the three countries issued a joint statement saying the ESM should not be allowed to use any of the €500bn fund to pay for previous bailouts.

So the ESM never had anything to do with pumping new money into the Irish banks.

I recommend that if you are struggling to follow this stuff, you should ask questions on the economics forum on Boards.ie - someone will usually be in a position to explain things to you.

Victor

latenia wrote: »

You're delusional.

goodie2shoes wrote: »

this clearly demonstrates why!

Constructive posts only please

Moderator

jmayo

Well a certain poster has decided that since we in the Accommodation and Property forum are not listening to their insightful opinions on the ressurection of the Irish property bubble they will move their tent over to After Hours.

If at first you don't succeed try again I guess.

Back on topic ...
does anybody have any idea how close to a realistic price register we actually are ?

Note I said realistic.