July 2012 Boards forecast contest

pauldry

pauldry wrote: »

15.5 .... 25.1 .... 3.4 .... 116 .... 99 .... 17.8, 0.0

Could I be mad MT and put 201 per cent down for rain!??!

Or am I too late

Lumi

15.7 .... 26.3 .... 4.0 .... 139 .... 90 .... 20.0, 0.2

Rikand

15.2 ..... 25.0 ...... 3.5 ...... 160 ...... 98 ...... 18.9/1.0mm

nilhg

16.1 .... 26.9 .... 6.3 .... 90 .... 110 .... 19.5, 0.8

M.T. Cranium

pauldry wrote: »

Could I be mad MT and put 201 per cent down for rain!??!

Or am I too late

All forecasts can be amended up to the end of 2nd this month (usually it would be to end of today). Shall I consider this your amended forecast?

Amendments made on "late" day would bump your entire forecast into that penalty category so I don't recommend it since your potential gain could be less than the penalty. Same goes double for amendments on "late late" day, I can't imagine too many cases where that penalty would be attractive to a late amendment. But in any case, people are free to make them. One exception (as outlined in an earlier case) is no changes can be made to take advantage of observed temperatures, high or low, and this is left as a self-regulating thing given the edit function which I don't necessarily monitor, but let's say that on the 2nd, the min is known to be 4.2 and you said 5.2, you can't then change to 4.2, but there's nothing to stop a later entrant from using that figure. May seem unfair, but this is what we all decided after a discussion about a similar case.

pauldry

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

All forecasts can be amended up to the end of 2nd this month (usually it would be to end of today). Shall I consider this your amended forecast?

Amendments made on "late" day would bump your entire forecast into that penalty category so I don't recommend it since your potential gain could be less than the penalty. Same goes double for amendments on "late late" day, I can't imagine too many cases where that penalty would be attractive to a late amendment. But in any case, people are free to make them. One exception (as outlined in an earlier case) is no changes can be made to take advantage of observed temperatures, high or low, and this is left as a self-regulating thing given the edit function which I don't necessarily monitor, but let's say that on the 2nd, the min is known to be 4.2 and you said 5.2, you can't then change to 4.2, but there's nothing to stop a later entrant from using that figure. May seem unfair, but this is what we all decided after a discussion about a similar case.

If im into late day leave it as the old one. Just looked at charts and they are ominous.

Leave me at whatever I had before its OK.

delw

15.5....25.9....4.5....110%.....95%......18c/ 0.5mm

M.T. Cranium

Pauldry, you can change to 201% without penalty, that only applies after the end of today (Monday 2nd). Same goes for anyone else, free changes because I don't even make up a table until after late entries.

Speak Now

14.8 .... 25 .... 5 .... 130 .... 80 .... 17.5/8

MiNdGaM3

15.5 .... 24.8 .... 4.0 .... 123 .... 88 .... 17.9, 12

dacogawa

16.4 ..... 29.2 ..... 3.9 ..... 150 ..... 101 ..... 16.1/5.0mm

Sponge Bob

15.1....24.1....3.9....137.....85......17.1/2.3

kindredspirit

15.5 ... 26.5 ... 5.0 ... 110 ... 90 ... 18/6

Danno

IMT 15.4c.... MAX 26.7c.... MIN 7.7c.... PRC 160%.... SUN 105%.... Dub 8th 18.6c, 3.1mm.

Kilkenny 7-23 v 3-14 Galway

waterways

15.5 .... 26.0 .... 5.1 .... 128 .... 95 .... 17.4, 1.1

lostinashford

15.3…26.3…4.4…165…87…16.7,7

DOCARCH

15.5 .... 29.1 .... 4.3 .... 110 .... 98 .... Dub 8th 20.2/2.1

Joe Public

15.9 .... 29.9 .... 5.9 .... 150 .... 89 .... 21.9, 8.9

M.T. Cranium

July contest entries
___________________________

Forecaster ........... IMT ... MAX ... MIN ... PRC ... SUN ... Dub-8th
______________________________________________________________


200motels ........... 16.8 ... 25.5 ... 4.5 ... 140 ... 089 .... 22.8...1.6
dacogawa ........... 16.4 ... 29.2 ... 3.9 ... 150 ... 101 .... 16.1...5.0
redsunset* .......... 16.4 ... 26.0 ... 6.0 ... 160 ... 090 .... 19.0...4.0
Iancar29 ............. 16.3 ... 26.2 ... 7.4 ... 120 ... 085 .... 18.5...4.0
Deep Easterly ...... 16.1 ... 26.9 ... 6.2 ... 110 ... 100 .... 18.3...3.4
H2UMrsRobinson ... 16.1 ... 24.2 ... 6.4 ... 150 ... 087 .... 18.4..15.0
nilhg ................... 16.1 ... 26.9 ... 6.3 ... 090 ... 110 .... 19.5...0.8
John mac* ........... 16.1 ... 26.2 ... 4.2 ... 121 ... 089 .... 18.7, 1.1
dasa29 ................ 16.0 ... 25.5 ... 3.0 ... 150 ... 100 .... 20.5...1.5
Strasser .............. 16.0 ... 24.3 ... 5.5 ... 100 ... 100 .... 18.8...5.0
Tae laidir ............. 16.0 ... 27.0 ... 5.3 ... 088 ... 109 .... 16.6...0.9
Harps .................. 15.9 ... 27.4 ... 4.9 ... 115 ... 110 .... 22.4...0.05
mickger844posts ... 15.9 ... 25.2 ... 4.1 ... 158 ... 079 .... 20.8...0.0
Joe Public ............ 15.9 ... 29.9 ... 5.9 ... 150 ... 089 .... 21.9...8.9
jd ....................... 15.8 ... 27.1 ... 4.4 ... 118 ... 098 .... 21.8...0.0
talkabout ............. 15.8 ... 25.8 ... 5.0 ... 094 ... 100 .... 18.2...0.3
M.T. Cranium ........ 15.8 ... 27.2 ... 4.5 ... 120 ... 105 .... 18.0...1.5
Lumi ................... 15.7 ... 26.3 ... 4.0 ... 139 ... 090 .... 20.0...0.2
cherryghost ......... 15.6 ... 26.5 ... 5.0 ... 090 ... 110 .... 18.1...0.0
okla .................... 15.6 ... 25.3 ... 5.2 ... 140 ... 110 .... 16.8...8.0
DOCARCH ............ 15.5 ... 29.1 ... 4.3 ... 110 ... 098 .... 20.2...2.1

Con Sensus ......... 15.5 ... 26.0 ... 4.6 ... 122 ... 098 .... 18.2...1.5

kindredspirit ......... 15.5 ... 26.5 ... 5.0 ... 110 ... 090 .... 18.0...6.0
waterways ........... 15.5 ... 26.0 ... 5.1 ... 128 ... 095 .... 17.4...1.1
MiNdGaM3 ............ 15.5 ... 24.8 ... 4.0 ... 123 ... 088 .... 17.9..12.0
delw .................... 15.5 ... 25.9 ... 4.5 ... 110 ... 095 .... 18.0...0.5
pauldry ................ 15.5 ... 25.1 ... 3.4 ... 201 ... 099 .... 17.8...0.0
Hammer Archer ...... 15.5 ... 24.3 ... 5.3 ... 146 ... 090 .... 19.1...2.3
traecy1 ................ 15.4 ... 26.4 ... 4.6 ... 085 ... 105 .... 21.5...0.0
Danno .................. 15.4 ... 26.7 ... 7.7 ... 160 ... 105 .... 18.6...3.1
Bsal ..................... 15.4 ... 22.9 ... 5.1 ... 104 ... 112 .... 17.0...0.2
homolumo ............. 15.4 ... 27.9 ... 6.0 ... 115 ... 109 .... 18.9...2.0
lostinashford ......... 15.3 ... 26.3 ... 4.4 ... 165 ... 087 .... 16.7...7.0
jambofc ................ 15.3 ... 28.0 ... 4.2 ... 125 ... 100 .... 16.7...2.1
snowstreams ......... 15.3 ... 27.8 ... 4.4 ... 115 ... 095 .... 21.0...0.0
Rickylovesuall ........ 15.2 ... 25.0 ... 3.5 ... 160 ... 098 .... 18.9...1.0
Gonzo .................. 15.2 ... 23.4 ... 3.7 ... 162 ... 076 .... 16.4...7.2
Sponge Bob .......... 15.1 ... 24.1 ... 3.9 ... 137 ... 085 .... 17.1...2.3
K_1 ..................... 15.0 ... 25.0 ... 6.5 ... 100 ... 100 .... 19.0...0.0
rameire* .............. 14.9 ... 24.9 ... 3.7 ... 132 ... 086 .... 12.2...7.0
Jerry Seinfeld ........ 14.8 ... 25.0 ... 5.0 ... 130 ... 080 .... 17.5...8.0
SeaFields ........,..... 14.5 ... 28.5 ... 5.0 ... 150 ... 070 .... 19.7...0.0

___________________________________________

* late entries, these are still welcome to 0300h, penalty for scores >60
** late-late entries are possible this month on Wednesday the 4th, max bonus 7/10, pen >50

John mac

16.1 .... 26.2 .... 4.2 .... 121 .... 89 .... 18.7, 1.1

Can't believe i'm late.!!

Redsunset

16.4....26.0....6.0.....160....90.....19....4

rameire

14.9 ..... 24.9 ..... 3.7 ..... 132 ..... 86 ..... 12.2 / 7mm
Sorry for delay.

Deep Easterly

Apologies for late entry, probably too late at this stage but I'll accept any deductions if accepted.

16.1 .... 26.9 .... 6.2 .... 110 .... 100 .... 18.3 / 3.4

M.T. Cranium

U4 late guys are okay, everything is running a day behind on this contest, so you're not even looking at penalties unless you score over 60.

I will keep editing the table as long as I can, so far U4 are in. (not sure if U2 will show up next). :eek:

John mac

they may just edge it .:eek:

doubt if i will get over 60 anyway .

M.T. Cranium

After the first seven days, with some estimation required for rainfall and sunshine due to small amounts of missing data ...

IMT 15.0

PRC 170% of normal

SUN 70% of normal

I have not seen any likely "max" or "min" values yet.

Oh, today was the bonus question, more about that later.

Tae laidir

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Oh, today was the bonus question, more about that later.

Have Mercy on us!!

Sponge Bob

Max Temp no more than 14c for the Bonus and you went low anyway Tae.

M.T. Cranium

The high for Dublin (A) was a meagre 14.0, with 1.3 mms rainfall on the 8th.

Scores will be based on five points for temperature and five for rainfall, with a generous eight forecasts in each range. Will check this more carefully when scoring the month, but looks to me like only Tae Laidir got into the top eight in both categories and so has the only ten points, can see a few others at nine.

Nobody was exceptionally close to 14.0, we had only one forecast below the actual value, at 12.2 (from Rameire) that appears to be closest, then it's 16.1 from Dacogawa and 16.4 from Gonzo. The four closest on precip were all tied for 0.2 off the mark, John mac and waterways (1.1) and Dasa29 plus MTC (1.5).

Sponge Bob

Looking at the Top 6 in the Annual there is a notable July Split over the IMT. Everyone went High or Low on the IMT this month. I have bolded those at or over 16c and Italicised those at or under 15.1c.

One or the other group will lose big, I can predict that much!


1 .. Sponge Bob ......52..50..50..46..52..64 ... 314 ... 52.3 ... 1 .... 268 (3)
2 .. Tae laidir ..........41..44..31..62..57..75 ... 311 ... 51.9 ... 2 .... 280 (1)
3 .. Jerry Seinfeld.....56..48..55..46..51..49 ... 305 ... 50.8 ... 3 .... 259 (4)
4 .. nilhg ................67..47..33..55..59..42 ... 303 ... 50.5 ... 4 .... 270 (2)
5 .. rameire ............65..44..53..56..41..43 ... 302 ... 50.3 ... 5 .... 259 (4)
6 .. H2UMrsRobinson.70..54..38..43..43..47 ... 295 ... 49.2 ... 6 .... 257 (7)