July 2012 Boards forecast contest

nilhg

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Looking at the Top 6 in the Annual there is a notable July Split over the IMT. Everyone went High or Low on the IMT this month. I have bolded those at or over 16c and Italicised those at or under 15.1c.

One or the other group will lose big, I can predict that much!


1 .. Sponge Bob ......52..50..50..46..52..64 ... 314 ... 52.3 ... 1 .... 268 (3)
2 .. Tae laidir ..........41..44..31..62..57..75 ... 311 ... 51.9 ... 2 .... 280 (1)
3 .. Jerry Seinfeld.....56..48..55..46..51..49 ... 305 ... 50.8 ... 3 .... 259 (4)
4 .. nilhg ................67..47..33..55..59..42 ... 303 ... 50.5 ... 4 .... 270 (2)
5 .. rameire ............65..44..53..56..41..43 ... 302 ... 50.3 ... 5 .... 259 (4)
6 .. H2UMrsRobinson.70..54..38..43..43..47 ... 295 ... 49.2 ... 6 .... 257 (7)

I have the combine washed, greased, filled with diesel, new chains and elevator bars on and tomorrow we start cleaning out all the stores.
The dryer is being left to last because I know that it's going to be hot and dry for the harvest and the probability is we won't need it:eek:

If I'm wrong I'm going to lose more than a few points in the annual competition, important though that is.

Sponge Bob

July looks like a case of dodge the lodge and don't get anything stuck in the bog. August could be different....bloody better be.

pauldry

tonight could be the coldest of the month so far.

only 7.7c in Sligo at 1130pm and lots of 8s and 9s on met eireann:eek:

lostinashford

Down to 9c in Ashford, coldest night so far this month! Still dropping

Harps

5.0C at Ballyhaise overnight

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE for the second week (7-14 July) ...

This is very approximate because today's Ag Report is unusually devoid of data, but would estimate ...

IMT for the week about 13 C so now around 14.0 C for the month.

PRC for the week about 130% so now sits around 150% for the month.

SUN for the week unchanged at 70% of normal (same as first week).

Estimating little change from today, after which these figures would require the following second half outcomes (16-31 Jul) to reach IMT of 15.5, normal rain and sun ...

(17.0, 50%, 130%)

My own estimate of where we will actually end up is 15.2, 125% and 90% which would require 16.4, 100% and 110% ... that would imply a fairly decent last week because this third week won't reach those standards.

Will pause the count today and try to get a more precise estimate for 1-15 then update after the 22nd.

M.T. Cranium

Can see potential for some very high scoring near the bottom of the July forecasts (ranked by IMT) ... not ruling out some high scoring a bit higher up the table if it gets very warm for the last week, but when you look at these six:

Gonzo .................. 15.2 ... 23.4 ... 3.7 ... 162 ... 076 .... 16.4...7.2
Sponge Bob .......... 15.1 ... 24.1 ... 3.9 ... 137 ... 085 .... 17.1...2.3
K_1 ..................... 15.0 ... 25.0 ... 6.5 ... 100 ... 100 .... 19.0...0.0
rameire* .............. 14.9 ... 24.9 ... 3.7 ... 132 ... 086 .... 12.2...7.0
Jerry Seinfeld ........ 14.8 ... 25.0 ... 5.0 ... 130 ... 080 .... 17.5...8.0
SeaFields ........,..... 14.5 ... 28.5 ... 5.0 ... 150 ... 070 .... 19.7...0.0

I can say for sure that points are limited by already recorded data to max of

Gonzo .................. 25 ... 20 ... 20 ... 15 ... 10 .... 8 ..... 98
Sponge Bob .......... 25 ... 20 ... 20 ... 15 ... 10 .... 9 ..... 99
K_1 ..................... 25 ... 20 ... 05 ... 15 ... 10 .... 5 ..... 80
rameire* .............. 25 ... 20 ... 20 ... 15 ... 10 .... 8 ..... 98 = 88
Jerry Seinfeld ........ 25 ... 20 ... 20 ... 15 ... 10 .... 5 ..... 95
SeaFields ........,..... 25 ... 20 ... 20 ... 15 ... 10 .... 4 ..... 94

and to get those max figures, they would need these second half figures:

Gonzo .................. 16.4 ... 23.4 ... 3.7 ... 174 ... 082 .... done
Sponge Bob .......... 16.2 ... 24.1 ... 3.9 ... 124 ... 100 .... done
K_1 ..................... 16.0 ... 25.0 ... 5.0*.. 050 ... 130 .... done
rameire* .............. 15.8 ... 24.9 ... 3.7 ... 114 ... 102 .... done
Jerry Seinfeld ........ 15.6 ... 25.0 ... 5.0*.. 110 ... 090 .... done
SeaFields ........,..... 15.0 ... 28.5 ... 5.0*.. 150 ... 070 .... done

(5.0* means 5.0 or anything higher so as not to change the current value)

Note that Rameire is playing off a 10% penalty if he breaks 60 which seems quite possible. This penalty cannot bring a score lower than 60.

I can see other contestants who could move ahead of all of the above, but they will need a very warm last week or some other big edge. Here's what a typical warmer forecast would need to get to 98 (for example, I have 8 from the bonus, this is not exactly my forecast though).

Warm dry sunny forecast needs .. 18.0 .. 28.0 .. 4.2 .. 040 .. 150 .. +bonus

Some less optimistic forecasts around 15.5 might need a more realistic

............................ 17.0 .. 28.0 .. 4.2 .. 065 .. 110 .. +bonus

There are quite a few players who could still in theory break 80 this month but they would need a very warm second half with a lot of sunshine and almost no rain which seems unlikely.

Anyone in the range of 15.3 to 15.5 IMT still has just about the same chance as the six that I worked on above, to break 80, if they haven't dropped a lot on MIN (known to be 5.0 or lower) or bonus (already scored), and especially if they went high on rainfall and low on sunshine.

I think that MAX category will decide the winner this month, it will probably depend on how far above 24 we get (if at all) since almost any value will be okay to avoid the "mercy rule." If we never see a warmer day than 23 the mercy rule will kick in and you can estimate your score by rank.

Sponge Bob

Oak Park hit 24.1c today. The 2 Dublin IMT stations made 23.0c each.

Harps

4.9C at Dublin Airport last night, haven't really been keeping track but I think that's the lowest so far

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE for third week (15-21 July) ...

IMT was 14.2 which leaves the month about 14.1 C ... probably heading up about 0.1-0.2 a day to Thursday now, then if models don't change, levelling off at about 15.

PRC for the week about 125% so now sits around 142% for the month. A dry spell would still leave this a bit above normal, so any rain now is adding to a base of about 105%.

SUN for the week just passed is estimated at 90% which brings the rather dull total up a bit to 77% of normal (but plus or minus 5 on that as I am partly estimating).

I won't bother to update after 22nd as earlier planned because I think this is clear enough for guidance on where the month is heading. My present guess is a finishing line of 15.1 for IMT, 115% rainfall, 80% sunshine and we may see an improvement in the MAX too (currently 24.1 or thereabouts).

M.T. Cranium

Phoenix Park recorded 24.3 on Monday 23rd. This could be eclipsed in the next two days but if not, we'll have to wait for the Monthly Summary to find out if it is considered official this time.

M.T. Cranium

Just thinking about August, what is happening around mid-August that could give us a suitable bonus question? Weekend of 11th-12th preferably?

H2UMrsRobinson

Closing ceremony of the Olympics in London? 12th August I believe.
Would tie in nicely with your new UK slant over on the forecast thread.

lostinashford

H2UMrsRobinson wrote: »

Closing ceremony of the Olympics in London? 12th August I believe.
Would tie in nicely with your new UK slant over on the forecast thread.

Great idea, it is on the 12 August?

How about a bonus question of how many medals (of all shades) Ireland wins?

pauldry

My wife is having her _0th birthday on August 11th. How about a max temperature and rainfall for Sligo? :P

M.T. Cranium

Okay, we'll go with something like that for Knock. Thanx.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE after week four (22-28 July) is more of an estimate with Mullingar missing from the ag report.

Temperature for the week estimated at 15.6 C which places the monthly IMT at 14.5 C. Not much further change expected in that now.

Rainfall for the week appeared to be 120% or so, which leaves the monthly figure at 136% of normal.

Sunshine was close to normal and this changes the monthly figure to about 80 per cent, but this has been a rough estimate all along, we'll see how that turns out.

pauldry

Think Rainfall could come in near 170percent for the month as all the "dry" stations got a soaking today and all the "wet" ones were already high.

Sunshine will prob be around 80 per cent but it was very sunny in a lot of areas on 29th and 30th.

There will be a lot of high scorers Id imagine.

M.T. Cranium

The final data for July are confirmed in the Monthly Summary and other sources on the Met website as ...

IMT 14.2 C :eek:

MAX 24.3 C (Phoenix Park, 23rd)

MIN 4.3 C (Markree, 12th)

PRC 149% of normal

SUN 85% of normal

(bonus, see earlier in this thread for the details)

I will start scoring this month now, and should have it done by 6 pm IST.

M.T. Cranium

Scoring for July contest
________________________________

Forecaster ........... IMT ... MAX ... MIN ... PRC ... SUN ... Dub-8th
______________________________________________________________

Actual values......... 14.2 .. 24.3 .. 4.3 .. 149 .. 085 .. 14.0..1.3 ...... TOTALS

Sponge Bob ............ 16 ... 18 ... 16 ... 11 ... 10 .... 04...02 ....... 77
Jerry Seinfeld .......... 20* . 13 ... 13 ... 09 ... 09 .... 04...01 ....... 69
Hammer Archer ........ 12 ... 20 ... 10 ... 14 ... 09 .... 02...02 ....... 69
Rickylovesuall .......... 15 ... 13 ... 12 ... 11 ... 07 .... 03...05 ....... 66
Gonzo .................... 15 ... 11 ... 14 ... 11 ... 08 .... 05...01 ....... 65
rameire* ................ 18 ... 14 ... 14 ... 09 ... 10 .... 05...01 ....... 71*=64
MiNdGaM3 .............. 12 ... 15 ... 17 ... 06 ... 09 .... 04...01 ....... 64
SeaFields ............... 23* . 00 ... 13 ... 15 ... 07 .... 02...03 ....... 63
mickger844posts ..... 08 ... 11 ... 18 ... 12 ... 09 .... 01...03 ....... 62
lostinashford .......... 14 ... 00 ... 19 ... 10 ... 10 .... 05...01 ....... 59
jambofc ................. 14 ... 00 ... 19 ... 07 ... 07 .... 05...04 ....... 56
okla ...................... 11 ... 10 ... 11 ... 12 ... 05 .... 05...01 ....... 55
H2UMrsRobinson ...... 06 ... 19 ... 00 ... 15 ... 10 .... 03...01 ....... 54
Lumi ...................... 10 ... 00 ... 17 ... 12 ... 09 .... 02...04 ....... 54

Con Sensus ............ 12 ... 03 ... 17 ... 06 ... 07 .... 04...05 ....... 54

200motels .............. 00 ... 08 ... 18 ... 12 ... 09 .... 01...05 ....... 53
waterways ............. 12 ... 03 ... 12 ... 08 ... 08 .... 04...05 ....... 52
delw ..................... 12 ... 04 ... 18 ... 02 ... 08 .... 04...04 ....... 52
dasa29 .................. 07 ... 08 ... 07 ... 15 ... 07 .... 01...05 ....... 50
John mac* ............. 06 ... 01 ... 19 ... 06 ... 09 .... 03...05 ....... 49
pauldry ................. 12 ... 12 ... 11 ... 00 ... 07 .... 04...03 ....... 49
snowstreams .......... 14 ... 00 ... 19 ... 04 ... 08 .... 01...03 ....... 49
dacogawa .............. 03 ... 00 ... 16 ... 15 ... 07 .... 05...02 ....... 48
Strasser ................ 07 ... 20 ... 08 ... 00 ... 07 .... 03...02 ....... 47
M.T. Cranium .......... 09 ... 00 ... 18 ... 05 ... 06 .... 04...05 ....... 47
DOCARCH ............... 12 ... 00 ... 20 ... 02 ... 07 .... 02...04 ....... 47
Bsal ...................... 13 ... 06 ... 12 ... 00 ... 05 .... 05...04 ....... 45
jd ......................... 09 ... 00 ... 19 ... 05 ... 07 .... 01...03 ....... 44
K_1 ...................... 17 ... 13 ... 00 ... 00 ... 07 .... 02...03 ....... 42
talkabout ............... 09 ... 05 ... 13 ... 00 ... 07 .... 03...04 ....... 41
kindredspirit ........... 12 ... 00 ... 13 ... 02 ... 09 .... 04...01 ....... 41
traecy1 ................. 13 ... 00 ... 17 ... 00 ... 06 .... 01...03 ....... 40
Joe Public .............. 08 ... 00 ... 04 ... 15 ... 09 .... 01...01 ....... 38
Harps .................... 08 ... 00 ... 14 ... 04 ... 05 .... 01...04 ....... 36
cherryghost ............ 11 ... 00 ... 13 ... 00 ... 05 .... 04...03 ....... 36
Danno .................... 13 ... 00 ... 00 ... 11 ... 06 .... 03...02 ....... 35
redsunset* ............. 03 ... 03 ... 03 ... 11 ... 09 .... 02...02 ....... 33
homolumo ............... 13 ... 00 ... 03 ... 04 ... 05 .... 03...04 ....... 32
Tae laidir ................ 07 ... 00 ... 10 ... 00 ... 05 .... 05...05 ....... 32
Iancar29 ................. 04 ... 01 ... 00 ... 05 ... 10 .... 03...02 ....... 25
Deep Easterly* ........ 06 ... 00 ... 01 ... 02 ... 07 .... 03...02 ....... 21
nilhg ...................... 06 ... 00 ... 00 ... 00 ... 05 .... 02...05 ....... 18

___________________________________________________________

* late entries, one case had high enough score to receive penalty of 10%
* with IMT score, one extra point to satisfy "minimum progression rule" otherwise no mercy scoring needed this month

In general, a lot of high scoring from those who anticipated a cool, wet and dull month. Even Con Sensus had a higher score than usual.

Congrats to Sponge Bob, Jerry Seinfeld and Hammer Archer for medal performances.

Annual scoring race will be updated this evening (IST) around 10 pm as I am heading out for lunch here (seems appropriate somehow) ...

lostinashford

Ha Mr. Con Sensus - beat you for the first time

M.T. Cranium

Updated Annual scoring table
__________________________________________


Rank .. Forecaster .... J .. F .. M .. A .. M .. J .. J ... Total ... Avg (rank)... Contest (rank)

1 .. Sponge Bob ......52..50..50..46..52..64..77 ... 391 ... 55.9 ... 1 .... 295 (1)
2 .. Jerry Seinfeld.....56..48..55..46..51..49..69 ... 374 ... 53.4 ... 2 .... 280 (3)
3 .. rameire ............65..44..53..56..41..43..64 ... 366 ... 52.3 ... 3 .... 282 (2)
4 .. H2UMrsRobinson.70..54..38..43..43..47..54 ... 349 ... 49.9 ... 4 .... 268 (6)
5 .. Tae laidir ..........41..44..31..62..57..75..32 ... 343 ... 49.0 ... 5 .... 280 (3)
6 .. pauldry ............61..48..45..31..49..56..49 ... 339 ... 48.4 ... 6 .... 263 (8)
7 .. Lumi ................62..45..28..43..44..57..54 ... 333 ... 47.6 ... 7 .... 262 (10)
8 .. John mac .........62..53..26..53..46..42..49 ... 331 ... 47.3 ... 8 .... 263 (8)
9 .. nilhg ................67..47..33..55..59..42..18 ... 321 ... 45.9 ... 9 .... 270 (5)
9 ..waterways ........58..29..53..33..47..49..52 ... 321 ... 45.9 ... 9 .... 259 (11)
11 .MiNdGaM3 .........33..11..31..45..70..56..64 ... 310 ... 44.3 .. 13 .... 268 (6)
12 .M.T. Cranium .....34..41..21..55..65..46..47 ... 309 ... 44.1 .. 14 .... 254 (12)
12 .Hammer Archer ..52..41..22..35..39..51..69 ... 309 ... 44.1 .. 14 .... 252 (14)

14 .Con Sensus .......58..28..31..46..48..41..54 ... 306 ... 43.7 .. 16 .... 247 (18)

14 .jd ....................50..28..47..44..53..35..44 ... 301 ... 43.0 .. 16 .... 238 (21)
14 .mickger844posts 62..26..38..27..40..46..62 ... 301 ... 43.0 .. 16 .... 248 (17)
16. jambofc ............26..34..22..60..59..40..56 ... 297 ... 42.4 .. 18 .... 249 (15)
17 .kindredspirit .......60..48..39..22..50..35..41 ... 295 ... 42.1 .. 19 .... 238 (21)
18 .delw ................57..57..15..25..39..49..52 ... 294 ... 42.0 .. 20 .... 254 (12)
19 .200motels .........56..69..18..31..40..26..53 ... 293 ... 41.9 .. 21 .... 249 (15)
20 .okla .................57..21..31..44..51..33..55 ... 292 ... 41.7 .. 22 .... 240 (20)
20 .K_1 ..................40..25..71..22..33..59..42 ... 292 ... 41.7 .. 22 .... 245 (19)
22 .traecy1 ............47..36..33..34..47..52..40 ... 291 ... 41.6 .. 24 .... 224 (26)
23 .Rickylovesuall ....42..52..30..13..51..36..66 ... 290 ... 41.4 .. 25 .... 247 (18)
24 .SeaFields .........33..15..57..44..36..35..63 ... 283 ... 40.4 .. 26 .... 235 (23)
25 .homolumo .........48..25..24..67..58..19..32 ... 273 ... 39.0 .. 28 .... 229 (24)
26 .snowstreams ....37..10..28..37..51..48..49 ... 260 ... 37.1 .. 29 .... 222 (27)
27 .DOCARCH .........20..27..32..40..41..52..47 ... 259 ... 37.0 .. 30 .... 212 (33)
28 .Joe Public .........42..21..08..53..66..30..38 ... 258 ... 36.9 .. 31 .... 229 (24)
29 .Harps ..............51..25..18..35..47..35..36 ... 247 ... 35.3 .. 33 .... 204 (34)
30 .dasa29 ............44..30..16..44..33..29..50 ... 246 ... 35.1 .. 34 .... 201 (35)
31 .cherryghost ......56..51..11..12..44..35..36 ... 245 ... 35.0 .. 35 .... 222 (27)
32 .dacogawa ........50..14..17..37..59..19..48 ... 244 ... 34.9 .. 36 .... 213 (32)
33 .Danno ..............48..20..--..44..50..45..35 ... 242 ... 40.3 .. 27 .... 222 (27)
34 .redsunset .........34..11..12..60..41..48..33 ... 239 ... 34.1 .. 37 .... 216 (31)
35 .Iancar29 ..........33..19..26..45..52..32..25 ... 232 ... 33.1 .. 40 .... 188 (38)
36 .talkabout .........42..26..20..05..58..32..41 ... 224 ... 32.0 .. 41 .... 199 (36)
37 .lostinashford .....--..--.. 37..34..40..52..59 ... 222 ... 44.4 .. 12 .... 222 (27)
38 .Wild Bill ............48..29..32..27..51..32..-- ... 219 ... 36.5 .. 32 .... 192 (37)
39 .Strasser ...........--..20..52..38..29..16..47 ... 202 ... 33.7 .. 39 .... 186 (39)
40 .NIALL D ...........29..20..28..44..42..32..-- ... 195 ... 32.5 .. 42 .... 175 (40)
41 .Gonzo ...............--..--..55..37..26..--..65 ... 183 ... 45.8 .. 11
42 .Deep Easterly ....--..38..22..45..--..44..21 ... 170 ... 34.0 .. 38 .... 170 (41)

(will be out of table unless resumed entries)
xx .Steopo .............53..20..44..24..--..--..-- ... 141 ... 35.3 .. 32 .... --
xx .Rebelbrowser .....--..14..36..38..44..--..-- ... 132 ... 33.0 .. 39 .... --
_____________________________________ _____


The scores are still ranked by totals, with a rank given also for average. This follows the same order except for a few contestants who have missed one or more months.

Following the June approximation of best scoring, this month I have taken your five best scores so far, which may be the same as your total if you've missed two months, and drops two low scores for most, one low score for the few who missed one month so far. From now on, most of you will have to beat your second lowest score of the year so far, each remaining month, to keep adding the full value of your scores. These scores appear in the last column of the table and are building towards the main contest award.

Congrats to Sponge Bob, Jerry Seinfeld, rameire, H2UMrsRobinson and Tae Laidir who are leading in various categories so far. Several people made a nice upward move in July, notably Mindgame however spelled and Hammer Archer, who both moved up about 15 spots.