Betting based of Twitter recommendations for July (Horses)

tinodz

I know a bit about the horses, but don't follow them a whole lot, so I can make mistakes - I lost €50 today for example .

So, for the month of July, I am going to throw away any knowledge I think I have, and start relying solely on the great people of Twitter.

For the past few days, I have been using Twitter to source some Horse tips, but making no bets. Some people seem like they know what they are doing, and others don't.

Some people seem like they want to tip every race, every day, and some people offer tips on just events they think they have a winner in. Some people are just regular people, and others seem like they have set up Twitter accounts to solely offer advice. Some people are con-artists!

I will search horse names, search race course names, search for "betting," "horse" "donkey" and various other things to accumulate a list people people. I probably will try and look for @mention in Tweets to find more real people talking with their friends about betting - I will try not to be stalkerish!

Starting off, I will not dismiss anyone, and try out bets from a range of people. As the month goes on, I will try and trim down the people I take bets from, and start focusing on the people offering some decent regular winners.

This is only a test for now, so no big money will be made from it. My plan is...

€1 win / place bets,
50c EW bets (€1 Total)
I will only make two bets per race MAX (1 win, and 1 EW/Place bet)
Only single bets. No double, trebles, lucky 15, or anything like that
I wont set a limit on bets per day (yet), but I wont bet on every event every day either.
I wont avail of services that ask you to pay for info (usually con artists anyway)
For each bet, I will try and explain why I made that bet, and the odds I bet at.
Starting bank €50

I fully expect to start off with a loss (as I trim down the list of people I follow), but hopefully, the €50 (at least 50 bets) will be enough to last the month.

I will use today and tomorrow to try and find decent people, and start betting July 1st (Sunday).

tinodz

*Will use this post to update stats as the month goes on*

Bets Made: 0
Wins: 0
Loses: 0

Win Bets Made: 0
Win Bets Won: 0

Place Bets Made: 0
Place Bets Won: 0

EW Bets Made: 0
EW Bets Won: 0

=============

People WORTH a Follow:

*no recommendations yet*

People NOT To Follow:

@bernadettebets (seems atrociously dodgy)

Dionysius2

Best of luck. Your starting bank seems very small. Maybe €100 would be more realistic ? I'll be watching with great interest. Tried this a few years ago but did no good.

tinodz

Dionysius2 wrote: »

Best of luck. Your starting bank seems very small. Maybe €100 would be more realistic ? I'll be watching with great interest. Tried this a few years ago but did no good.

Thanks!

I will update the starting bank to €50 - maybe I had too much faith in Twitter!

I don't want to bet through €100 on a test log. €50 seems a nice round amount though, and if I somehow bet through all of it on bad €1 bets, I wont be that miffed! €50 seems about right to prove if this is a good or bad idea.

Formation

You are bound to find 1 or 2 that hit a hot streak in your first month and then go back to losing their bollox when you up your tailing bets.

tinodz

Formation wrote: »

You are bound to find 1 or 2 that hit a hot streak in your first month and then go back to losing their bollox when you up your tailing bets.

If I somehow come out of this in profit, then August will not be big bets straight away (and I will still be using whatever profit, if any, I accumulated this month), so it is not going to go completely tits up on regardless of what happens. Most I can lose is my initial €50.

If I go into August, I will continue adding, and trimming people, and hopefully I will be better at sourcing the right picks from the list of decent people I found.

I am likely thinking too far ahead with all this though - might not even make it out of Week One.

tinodz

Right, I think I stumbled on some good people. Seeing as tomorrow is a good day of racing, these are some of the bets I would have made based on Twitter Recommendations. No real bets made though, this just a pre-test to see what would have happened.

June 30th Choices

Horse Current Odds Venue Result
Crackentorp 14/1 EW 15.20 Newcastle Win (2nd)
Jedward 11/2 16:15 Chester Loser
Pearl Ice 4/1 16:35 Windsor Loser
Pivotman 12/1 EW 16.40 Newmarket Loser
Media Hype 4/1 16.40 Newmarket Loser
Bold Thady Quill 13/2 EW 17:20 Curragh Win (1st)
Seanie 9/1 EW 17:55 Curragh Loser
Definightly 10/3 19.00 Curragh Win


Details:

Day Total Investment (if live) Potential Winnings Actual Winnings (if live) Current Bank
June 30 (Day 0) €8 €50.77 I have no idea, feck maths Not in-play yet

tinodz

Not a terrible pre-test day. I believe I would have been in decent profit. Bring on the first live day tomorrow!

tinodz

July 1st Bets

Starting Bank (July 1st)
€50

Horse Odds Got Venue Result Winnings
Cosmic Demon Evens Race 2 Ballarat (AU) Win €2
Skater Dude 6/4 Race 3 Sunshine Coast (AU) Lose -
Small Fly 14/1 EW 16.05 Uttoxter Win (1st) €9.75
Sapphire 5/2 16.20 Curragh Lose -
Novellist 4/6 16.40 Hamburg Lose -
Ucanchoose 9/1 EW 16.55 Curragh Lose -
Father of Science 4/1 17.25 Curragh Lose -
Lady Percy 3/1 17.50 Salisbury Lose -


July 1st Total Investment
€8

carpothepunk

Seems that you are following either Seanie (spinitg) or Kris (kris1179). We were all on Bold Thady Quill yesterday.

There are some great people on twitter tipping. The biggest one being @getyourtipsout. Its two blokes, and their points profit for the year is roughly +800. I don't necessarily think they are the best, but they do have a nice system, and they have a selection for every race.

There's also @stoproguetips that basically post up Tommo's guesses everyday ho ho ho.

Best of luck with your efforts.

carpothepunk

Also, you could do worse than follow Bet Share, they collate most of the Twitter Naps and post them daily. Quite a handy little tool.

http://twitter.com/#!/Bet_Share/

tinodz

carpothepunk wrote: »

Seems that you are following either Seanie (spinitg) or Kris (kris1179). We were all on Bold Thady Quill yesterday.

There are some great people on twitter tipping. The biggest one being @getyourtipsout. Its two blokes, and their points profit for the year is roughly +800. I don't necessarily think they are the best, but they do have a nice system, and they have a selection for every race.

There's also @stoproguetips that basically post up Tommo's guesses everyday ho ho ho.

Best of luck with your efforts.

Not really following anyone specific yet. Just a whole bunch pf people, and trying to see if there is at least two or more strong recommendations for a horse before I back. I think kris1179 has popped up a few times, but never saw spinitg yet.

carpothepunk wrote: »

Also, you could do worse than follow Bet Share, they collate most of the Twitter Naps and post them daily. Quite a handy little tool.

http://twitter.com/#!/Bet_Share/

Thanks for that, will add that.

tinodz

Got Small Fly of kris1179! Hooray!

tinodz

Done for today. Was going to try some US Racing, but will shy away for today. One bet saved me from a terrible start!

July 1st Results

July 1st Total Investment
€8
July 1st Total Winnings
€11.75
Wins
2
Bank for July 2nd
€53.75
+/- For The Day
€3.75
+/- For The Month
€3.75

tinodz

July 2nd

Bank
€53.75

Bets

Horse Odds Got Venue Result Winnings Tipped By
Jack 'N' Sam 2/1 Race 2 Wagga (AU) Lose - Various
Euxton Hall Evens 16:00 Pontifract Win €2 Various
Camache Queen 8/1 EW 16:30 Ponterfract Lose - @leewakey77
Saffa Hill 5/1 EW 17:00 Ponterfract Lose - Various
Jennifer J 3/1 17:00 Ponterfract Lose - EVERYONE
Danceyourselfdizzy 10/1 EW 17:15 Wolverhampton Lose - @kris1179
Forunate Bid 7/1 EW 17:15 Wolverhampton Lose - @kris1179
Cathedral 7/2 20:25 Ffos Las NR €1 @valuehorsetips
Bernisdale 4/1 20:40 Windsor Win €4.60 Various
Magic Secret 15/8 20:55 Ffos Las NR €1 Various

Today's Total Investment
€10

tinodz

Bad day. Don't have time to wait to see the 20:40 Windsor. Will update that later. Still bad day.

Won't start to weed out any Tipsters yet, as pretty much everyone seemed to have a bad day today.

BAD DAY

tinodz

Will keep daily results, and next day bets to one post going forward, so as I wont be bumping this thread so damn much.

July 2 Results

July 2nd Total Investment
€10
July 2nd Total Winnings
€8.60
Wins
2 (2 NR)
Bank for July 2nd
€52.35
+/- For The Day
€2.40
+/- For The Month
€2.35

Thoughts: No idea how I am still in profit overall

==============

July 3 Bets

Horse Odds Got Venue Result Winnings Tipped By
Outback Legend SP Race 6 Toowoomba (AU) Win €1.60 Various
Tenancy 11/4 14:15 Brighton Lose - @valuehorsetips
Mr Fickle 3/1 15:50 Brighton Lose - Various
Marah Music 13/2 15:15 Brighton Lose - Various
Market Puzzle 5/1 EW 16:15 Brighton Win (3rd) €1.12 Various
Toga Tiger 11/10 17:15 Brighton NR €1 Various
Jamaican Bolt 11/4 17:00 Hamiltion Win €3.75 @valuehorsetips
Waterford Star 5/4 19:20 Kempton Win €2.25 Various
Bold Thady Quill 2/1 20:00 Gowran Park Lose - @kris1170
Daliance 5/1 EW 20:20 Kempton Lose - Various
Hurricane Sky 13/8 20:30 Gowran Park Lose - @valuehorsetips
Saytara 3/1 20:50 Kempton Lose - @valuehorsetips


Today's Total Investment
€12

Thoughts: Only four bets tomorrow (all from one guy - lets see how that works out), no bets on two yet, as PP have no odds up. Will bet when I see odds available, and update this. Screw that reasoning, will add a few more.

seklly

So if Toga Tiger comes in @ 11/0 you get infinite returns?! Which bookie?!!

tinodz

seklly wrote: »

So if Toga Tiger comes in @ 11/0 you get infinite returns?! Which bookie?!!

Oops. Decided I was going to make a decent amount of bets today (before I drop some people I follow in the next day or two), and was bound to make a mistake somewhere.

tinodz

July 3 Results

July 3 Total Investment
€12
July 3 Total Winnings
€9.72
Wins
4 (1 NR)
Bank for July 4
€50.07
+/- For The Day
€2.28
+/- For The Month
€0.07

Thoughts: I am seven cent in profit overall!1!!

==============

July 4 Bets

Horse Odds Got Venue Result Winnings Tipped By


Today's Total Investment
€0

Thoughts: Going to pick horses much closer to post for July 4. Actually, no bets tomorrow. I want to bet close to post for the next round, and will be away mostly all day, so will not get a chance. Will do all the "close to post" betting on July 5 - and hopefully get a decent profit for the first time on this thing.

tinodz

Will be getting back to this tomorrow - if anyone cares. Had two really busy days, and was unable to pick close to the race (which is what I want to do for the next round).

Formation

Whats your opinion on short priced ew doubles?

tinodz

Sorry again... I have been keeping up with this, but not updating. I have dumped a fair few people from my follow list, but found at least four who I think I trust to make good decisions. There are two good people out there who seem to be making good decision on Aus Racing, and nice collection of people who are tipping good UK/Ire racing. I am going to follow them from now on, and try my best to update here.

My current bank is €43.05 BTW

Formation wrote: »

Whats your opinion on short priced ew doubles?

I hate short priced horses with a passion. I might back GREAT horses (Frankel, Black Caviar, Camelot and a few others), but horses like Starscope and Ibtahaj let people down last week big time - and I am glad I now sidestep them. I think there was word of someone who put £600,000 on Ibtahaj at evens last week - and he fell out the gate losing the race.

tinodz

Bank
€43.05

July 9 Bets

Horse Odds Got Venue Result Winnings Tipped By
Luctor Emergo 3/1 4:30 Ayr WIN €4.00 @PirateTipster, @GetYouTipsOut
Regal Acclaim 15/8 5:00 Ayr LOSE ? @PirateTipster, @GetYouTipsOut
Penny Garcia 11/2 6:50 Ripon WIN €5.40 @PirateTipster, @GetYouTipsOut
King Dragon 9/4 6:40 Windsor WIN €5.50 @PirateTipster, @GetYouTipsOut
Takeitfrommalady 3/1 7:10 Windsor WIN €4.00 @PirateTipster, @GetYouTipsOut


Today's Total Investment
€5

Thoughts: During the last few days, I noticed two people (or a collection of people) are in good form - GetYourTipsOut and Pirate Tipster. So, for today, I have decided to follow both of them! However, I am not following all their bets (I don't think my bank could do it), instead I am only following bets where they agree with each other. The 5 bets above are the only ones where each Tipster agrees with the other for the day. Combined knowledge means I cannot lose! :P

Also, I meant to play Penny Garcia as an EW bet, but mess up and played to win. I cannot change it now, so will stick with it.

tinodz

July 9 Results

July 9 Total Investment
€5
July 9 Total Winnings
€18.90
Wins
4
Bank for July 10
€56.95
+/- For The Day
€13.90
+/- For The Month
€6.95

Thoughts: Almost quadruped my investment. I think I found a new system!

==============

July 10 Bets

Horse Odds Got Venue Result Winnings Tipped By
All on Red 7/1 EW 2:30 Pontefract OFF €1 @PirateTipster, @GetYouTipsOut
Restless Bay 10/3 2:45 Wolverhampton WIN €4.33 @PirateTipster, @GetYouTipsOut
Yours Ever 2/1 3:15 Wolverhampton LOSE - @PirateTipster, @GetYouTipsOut
Gowanharry 9/4 3:30 Pontefract OFF €1 @PirateTipster, @GetYouTipsOut
Mashaari Evens 5:00 Pontefract OFF €1 @PirateTipster, @GetYouTipsOut
Daddy Warbucks 11/4 19:05 Southwell WIN €3.75 @PirateTipster, @GetYouTipsOut
Punching 7/1 EW 8:35 Southwell LOSE - @PirateTipster, @GetYouTipsOut
Carnac 9/4 9:05 Southwell LOSE - @PirateTipster, @GetYouTipsOut

Today's Total Investment
€8

Thoughts: Might go with the GetYourTipsOut and Pirate Tipster combo again to see if it can work again. Will update those bets when the clever guys they put them up.

Done that now. They have 8 choices that match up today - much more than yesterday's 5. If this turns out to be another profitable day, I am not sure what direction to take this log. Betting 5 and winning 4 really impressed me yesterday. Unless today turns really sour, I might stick with this style for a while.

carpothepunk

Yeah GYTO have been doing well recently, close to the +1000 points barrier for the year.

Seanie (spinitg) has been smashing it lately, 6/1 and 10/1 naps in the last three days, plenty of us on big. Hes worth following in Ireland, for sure.

tinodz

July 10 Results

July 10 Total Investment
€8
July 10 Total Winnings
€11.08
Wins
2 (3 NR)
Bank for July 11
€60.03
+/- For The Day
€3.08
+/- For The Month
€10.03

Thoughts: €10 Euro made in 10 Days! I shall quit my job soon!!

==============

July 11 Bets

Horse Odds Got Venue Result Winnings Tipped By

Today's Total Investment
€0

Thoughts: Sticking with the GetYourTipsOut and Pirate Tipster combo might be a bit boring for the log. Might try something else tomorrow, so as to keep things interesting. Even if these guys are profitable, there is likely more more profit to be made by including a few more people in the selection - like Seanie. Will sleep on it.

tinodz

Had no bets today. Thinking back, having a log in which I make daily bets was not the best idea. Cannot always have the time to look though a long list of Tweets and make bets from it.

Should be back tomorrow though!

Have a feeling I should increase stakes too (€5 bets) - even if it ends in disaster.

Formation

That is what i always notice from people in the first couple of years, hit a short run of positive variance, increase the bets, variance swings back, bust. Rinse and repeat.

Keep the dicipline T.

tinodz

Formation wrote: »

That is what i always notice from people in the first couple of years, hit a short run of positive variance, increase the bets, variance swings back, bust. Rinse and repeat.

Keep the dicipline T.

You are fully correct there Formation, but I just feel like trying something different - wont do the €5 bets though.

Instead, I decided to opt to bet fully with @GetYouTipOut today, following all their tips along with their point system (for me that means 1 point is a €1 bet, 2 points is a €2 bet, and so on).

Looking back through their history, I don't think they have had a day worse than -10 points (with their highs over 50+ points), so unless they have the worst day in their history this should not absolutely ruin my bank, and it has a decent chance of adding a bit to it (with a bit of luck).

Seeing as I will be betting on all bets they publish, I will likely be spending close to all my bank in one day (which is a bit scary), but this is a test after all, and it will teach me a very big lesson if everything goes wrong.

With so many bets today (over 40 based on the current schedule if there is no more abandonments), I dont think I will have the time to post them all here on the usual table, but their blog hosts them all (my odds will likely be a bit different though).

I will post the WINNINGS / HORRIBLE LOSES here once they day is over (the last race is @ 9PM).

Btw, my starting Bank for today is slightly bigger than the above table states. I guess some bet was setteled / resettled higher at a later date - although I cannot place which one.

My current Bank is...

Bank for July 12
€60.26

This day should be weirdly interesting / terrifying! :pac:

tinodz

Right, this is probably too complicated to explain. I did not have enough money to back all horses at the points listed straight away, I had a bank of €60.26, and the amount to back everything was over €80. I ended up backing every horse like I planned, but I had to wait until some of the initial winners came in, and used that win money to back horses later in the day.

Couple the above with some non-runners, and me not around to add replacements, means I am very confused with what my actual spend was (not a great way to bet).

However, Here is the full list of winners

Winners Winnings
Shelford €5.50
Jane Lachatte €8.00
Hipster €10.00
Shamora €7.88
Happy Anniversary €10.00
Go On Murt €10.50
Steps To Freedom €9.75
Jamarjo €8.00
Shantaram €13.00
Beach Of Falesa €8.40
Our Phylli Vera €6.55

Using the power of maths, I have decided this is how much I am up...

July 12 Results (which are not as exact as usual!)

July 12 Total Investment
TOO MUCH
July 12 Total Winnings
A GOOD BIT
Wins
11
Bank for July 13
€78.84
+/- For The Day
€18.58
+/- For The Month
€28.84

Thoughts: It was a good experience this. The guy(s) involved do seem to know what they are doing, and many of their early morning picks were backed heavily come the evening - Our Phylli Vera for example was recommend @ over 3/1, and her SP was just above Evens.

I would probably go with these guys again, and do this again, but seeing €0 in your Bank at NOON is a scary feeling, and maybe under €20 profit for that scare is not enough. However, around €20 profit it still kinda good for a series of €1, €2, and €3 bets.

No idea what to do tomorrow - maybe rest :P

edit - GYTO offically list thier day as +18.16pts, so I guess my math is right.