Leinster Team Talk/Gossip/Rumours Thread II

tolosenc

cormacjones wrote: »

Does anyone know would that be considered close to Toulon's strongest team?

Probably not, but the 23 is close enough to the strongest they've got. They are going to Montpellier to win.

Neil3030

PJ Maybe&Neil3030 wrote:

(a) Toulon to beat Montpellier, and Montpellier not getting a try BP or a losing BP
(b) Munster to not win with a try BP and score two less tries than we do.
(c) (Toulouse to beat Leicester) or (Leicester to beat Toulouse and Toulouse not getting a try or losing BP) or (Leicester to draw with Toulouse but not get a try BP)
(d) Biarritz not to win with a try BP
(e) Northampton not to win and a try BP and 3 more tries than us.
(f) Edinburgh to win and Saracens not getting a try BP or a losing BP and Saracens to score 3 less tries than us.

If (a) happens, 2 spots are open for teams with 19+ points, so we would need 3 of the 4 scenarios (b) -> (e) to occur.

If (f) happens then Munster qualify top of their pool so we need the 3 scenarios (c) -> (e) to occur.

If (a) and (f) happen then we need 2 of the 3 scenarios (c) -> (e) to occur.

But if neither (a) or (f) happen, i.e., Montpellier get a point from the Toulon game, we need all four of scenarios (b) -> (e).

(All this is obviously on the assumption we can't surpass the likes of Leicester, Toulouse, Biarritz on tries scored, seeing as this would give us the try BP win)

One down

cormacjones

George Hook must put in some serious hours of research before he pens an article.

"The bookies have already installed Leinster as favourites to get through ahead of Munster. It is an indication of the relative strengths of the sides that, despite Leinster facing the task of winning with a bonus point away from home, the Thomond Park factor is discounted.""

Leinster are 5/4 to qualify and Munster are 1/6. The spread in the Munster game is 20 points v 10 in the Leinster game.

http://www.independent.ie/sport/rugby/heineken-cup/george-hook-attacking-pace-and-guile-will-send-leinster-into-bonus-territory-3357550.html

.ak

Neil3030 wrote: »

One down

Stars are aligning....

durkadurka

Hooks getting increasingly detached and doddery .

Seems to have finally copped that heaslip is a good player who is doing a different job now that he has ball carriers around him.

Podge_irl

I imagine Hook only looked at the overall tournament odds where Leinster are shorter odds then Munster as they're much, much more likely to win IF they make it. Which is lazy and careless and worse than ignorance - its peddling misinformation. So pretty much par for the course with Hook.

Neil3030

PJ Maybe&Neil3030 wrote:

(a) Toulon to beat Montpellier, and Montpellier not getting a try BP or a losing BP
(b) Munster to not win with a try BP and score two less tries than we do.
(c) (Toulouse to beat Leicester) or (Leicester to beat Toulouse and Toulouse not getting a try or losing BP) or (Leicester to draw with Toulouse but not get a try BP)
(d) Biarritz not to win with a try BP
(e) Northampton not to win and a try BP and 3 more tries than us.
(f) Edinburgh to win and Saracens not getting a try BP or a losing BP and Saracens to score 3 less tries than us.

If (a) happens, 2 spots are open for teams with 19+ points, so we would need 3 of the 4 scenarios (b) -> (e) to occur.

If (f) happens then Munster qualify top of their pool so we need the 3 scenarios (c) -> (e) to occur.

If (a) and (f) happen then we need 2 of the 3 scenarios (c) -> (e) to occur.

But if neither (a) or (f) happen, i.e., Montpellier get a point from the Toulon game, we need all four of scenarios (b) -> (e).

(All this is obviously on the assumption we can't surpass the likes of Leicester, Toulouse, Biarritz on tries scored, seeing as this would give us the try BP win)

CIARAN_BOYLE

Kearney Reid and Marshall all came off early in the A game.

Anyone got any updates

tolosenc

Sexton should get on the phone to Racing and say if they stop Munster's BP tomorrow, he'll sign (for a year).

thomond2006

Podge_irl wrote: »

I imagine Hook only looked at the overall tournament odds where Leinster are shorter odds then Munster as they're much, much more likely to win IF they make it. Which is lazy and careless and worse than ignorance - its peddling misinformation. So pretty much par for the course with Hook.

at least he's consistent :pac:

Clegg

I'll say it now.

Fitz should at least be in the 23 for the Wales game.

He's been in brilliant form since returning from injury.

Fishooks13

Clegg wrote: »

I'll say it now.

Fitz should at least be in the 23 for the Wales game.

He's been in brilliant form since returning from injury.

He should be in the 15, nevermind the 23!

Foxtrol

Clegg wrote: »

I'll say it now.

Fitz should at least be in the 23 for the Wales game.

He's been in brilliant form since returning from injury.

Hats off to Leinster as for all the abuse they were getting here for their squad updates on him it really looks like he would have been able to play for a while but that they held him back until he was in top condition before allowing him back on the pitch.

tolosenc

What's irritating is that we really could have pulled another point, or at least 3 or so more tries out of our first 3 games. Had we done the former, we'd be home and hosed, the latter and Munster would have serious work to do tomorrow.

Glass Prison 1214

tolosenc wrote: »

Probably not, but the 23 is close enough to the strongest they've got. They are going to Montpellier to win.

You think?

P_1

tolosenc wrote: »

What's irritating is that we really could have pulled another point, or at least 3 or so more tries out of our first 3 games. Had we done the former, we'd be home and hosed, the latter and Munster would have serious work to do tomorrow.

All goes to show what a double whammy the fixture list and the injury list was to do us in.

Imagine if our fixtures went?
Clermont A
Exeter H
Scarlets H
Scarlets A
Exeter A
Clermont H

TheGoldenAges

Think the biggest regret will be away to Clermont, they didn't score in the second half and we had countless opportunities but our lineout failed..

funtime93

TheGoldenAges wrote: »

Think the biggest regret will be away to Clermont, they didn't score in the second half and we had countless opportunities but our lineout failed..

No the biggest regret will be minutes 50-80 of this week and last where,combined,we could have scored at least another 4 or 5 tries making Munster's task nigh on impossible.

.ak

Nah they were okay last week. I may sound like a broken record but the ref was very kind to scarlets last week too.

TheGoldenAges

I suppose with the amount of luck we "supposedly" get from refs these things even themselves out

PJ Maybe

Updated below what we need from tomorrow's matches. We can still get through even if Munster win with a Try bonus point.

Come on Edinburgh, one time!

PJ Maybe&Neil3030 wrote:

(a) Munster to not win with a try BP

(b) (Toulouse to beat Leicester) or
(Leicester to beat Toulouse and Toulouse not getting a try and losing BP) or
(Leicester to draw with Toulouse and not get both a try and losing BP)

(c) Edinburgh to win and Saracens not getting a try BP and a losing BP .

We need (a and b) or (b and c) to go through.

[Jackass]

Given how we needed perhaps one of two realistic enough results to go our way, that being Toulon beating Montpellier or Munster not getting a BP win over Racing, it's very disappointing how Toulon performed in that match, and also the side Racing are sending to Limerick, it's a real kick in the teeth.

Given how crippled we've been this season with injuries, 10 points from 10 in our remaining two games is all we could do really. The try count from previous rounds was always going to be a massive ask to make up.

Munster have had a sh*t load of luck this season vs our bad luck, they got Edinburgh as second seeds, they've got Racing out for the most crucial game, and sending a massively depleted team and they've got the final day match so they know what they need to go through.

I'm hoping their luck runs out tomorrow as Leinster are the far better side, had the much tougher group and I think Munster would be doing themselves a favour by not going into the knock outs! At least they'd have a chance of winning the Amlin!

Tomorrow is the test. In virtually a training match, are Munster not sh*t enough to be able to score 4 tries against 15 statues walking around the pitch, pissed off that they didn't get the weekend off.

We shall wait and see!

TheGoldenAges

[Jackass] wrote: »

Given how we needed perhaps one of two realistic enough results to go our way, that being Toulon beating Montpellier or Munster not getting a BP win over Racing, it's very disappointing how Toulon performed in that match, and also the side Racing are sending to Limerick, it's a real kick in the teeth.

Given how crippled we've been this season with injuries, 10 points from 10 in our remaining two games is all we could do really. The try count from previous rounds was always going to be a massive ask to make up.

Munster have had a sh*t load of luck this season vs our bad luck, they got Edinburgh as second seeds, they've got Racing out for the most crucial game, and sending a massively depleted team and they've got the final day match so they know what they need to go through.

I'm hoping their luck runs out tomorrow as Leinster are the far better side, had the much tougher group and I think Munster would be doing themselves a favour by not going into the knock outs! At least they'd have a chance of winning the Amlin!

Tomorrow is the test. In virtually a training match, are Munster not sh*t enough to be able to score 4 tries against 15 statues walking around the pitch, pissed off that they didn't get the weekend off.

We shall wait and see!

Except it's a second/third Racing team, and they'll be playing for contracts...

Possible a better team than a team with money in their boots playing for nothing no?

[Jackass]

TheGoldenAges wrote: »

Except it's a second/third Racing team, and they'll be playing for contracts...

Possible a better team than a team with money in their boots playing for nothing no?

No. Of course not. It's a bunch of reserves in a team thrown together. The fact that it's a second or thirds team alone means that the skill level and performance capacity is massively reduced anyway, and a team who haven't played together much - look at Leinster in the early stages of the Pro12 with second and third string players out there, they were all playing to impress and catch Joes eyes, and they got a half century put on them by the Scarlets - then the full team plays the same opposition and reverses it - your looking at almost a 100 point swing there - contracts or no contracts.

TheGoldenAges

So If and I stress if Leinster get through, who will we be playing, someone mentioned Harlequins, a first match since Bloodgate would be interesting

danthefan

TheGoldenAges wrote: »

So If and I stress if Leinster get through, who will we be playing, someone mentioned Harlequins, a first match since Bloodgate would be interesting

It would be Quins, yes.

tolosenc

So yeah, Sexton's cross-field kick to McFadden in Clermont...

[Jackass]

Had he taken the three, Parra wouldn't have kicked the last penalty of the game out for a lineout and would have pointed to the posts, slotted it, and we still would have lost.

danthefan

tolosenc wrote: »

So yeah, Sexton's cross-field kick to McFadden in Clermont...

What about it? Do you think everything would have unfolded exactly as it has apart from Leinster drawing with Clermont? I don't think that's how it works.

tolosenc

danthefan wrote: »

I don't think that's how it works.

That's exactly how it works.

Quint2010

Face it. Leinster are out. Injuries or no injuries-we as a squad have not been good enough this season.

danthefan

tolosenc wrote: »

That's exactly how it works.

Are you being serious here or what?

phog

tolosenc wrote: »

So yeah, Sexton's cross-field kick to McFadden in Clermont...

Not too sure, if it came off it would have been a moment of magic, in saying that I did say wtf when he went for it but iirc McFadden was out of view on the tv, today then leinster opted for 3 points when a scrum might have led to another try.

Can you really look back at single issues and say there's the season, i don't think so, as one thing leads to a different play and no one knows what happens next.

Hagz

Leinster through to B&I cup Quarter Final, Macken equalling his 5 tries of last season.

tolosenc

danthefan wrote: »

Are you being serious here or what?

Not even vaguely, I was just surprised that no one had brought it up yet.

danthefan

tolosenc wrote: »

Not even vaguely, I was just surprised that no one had brought it up yet.

Aha. Without tone it's hard to know exactly what text means sometimes.

tolosenc

danthefan wrote: »

Aha. Without tone it's hard to know exactly what text means sometimes.

In fairness, if you knew me in real life, it's hard to tell if I'm being sarcastic or not. And then people think I'm not when I am, so I just keep going to annoy them more.

I'm a great person.

fanki na pengin

I hate it being out of our hands.

I also hate that I have to hope an Irish team fails to perform tomorrow.

.ak

tolosenc wrote: »

I'm a great person.

Hahah, I get sarcasm. It means what you say isn't true! :pac:

.ak

fanki na pengin wrote: »

I hate it being out of our hands.

I also hate that I have to hope an Irish team fails to perform tomorrow.

You could root for Edinburgh... That way three Irish teams get through.

[Jackass]

The only two "outs" remaining for Leinster are that:

A) Munster fail to win with a try bonus point

or

Edinburgh defeat Saracens

tolosenc

[Jackass] wrote: »

The only two "outs" remaining for Leinster are that:

A) Munster fail to win with a try bonus point

or

Edinburgh defeat Saracens

Even then, we'd still technically be depending on the result in Welford Rd going our way.

[Jackass]

I'm discounting the Leicester v Toulouse game as the only way that game would effect us would be if Toulouse got a try bonus point AND a losing bonus point, which isn't going to happen.

If Leicester win and Toulouse only get 1 bonus point, or it's a draw or Toulouse win regardless of winning / losing bonus points, and we'd be fine.

Relying on either Edinburgh or Racing Metro to do us a favour now!

Quint2010

[Jackass] wrote: »

Relying on either Edinburgh or Racing Metro to do us a favour now!

You may as well be relying on your granny

fanki na pengin

.ak wrote: »

You could root for Edinburgh... That way three Irish teams get through.

There's hoping for miracles then there's hoping Edinburgh win.....like ever.

But saying that, you're right, and I completely forgot. C'mon Edinburgh!

matthew8

Munster have managed 2 tries in 2 games against Cardiff and Edinburgh. There is plenty of hope heading into this game.

durkadurka

I'm wondering if racing will even show up for the game.

phog

durkadurka wrote: »

I'm wondering if racing will even show up for the game.

You're thinking of Bourgoin in Donnybrook two seasons in a row.

durkadurka

phog wrote: »

You're thinking of Bourgoin in Donnybrook two seasons in a row.

I really don't understand the point of that comment.

irishbucsfan

durkadurka wrote: »

I really don't understand the point of that comment.

Especially considering 2 seasons ago we had Racing and Clermont in our pool?