Would a united Ireland destroy us?

DylanII

Hi,

So I was talking to to friend who thinks that Northern Ireland is being held against its will by England. Just a dope!

Anyway something she said was that we would get their GDP and taxes.

Which made me think that if we were to take them would it not cost us a fortune. Is the UK not constantly pumping money into Northern Ireland and getting nothing back.

If we were to take NI would it mean definite bankruptcy for us?

Welease

I havent read it, but this may help..

NI Fiscal Balance Report - Aug 2011 (covers 2008-09)
http://www.dfpni.gov.uk/northern-ireland-net-fiscal-balance-report-08-09.pdf

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This report provides an analysis of the public finances in NI, focusing on the expenditure and revenue generated within the region. The report concentrates on 2008-09, the latest financial year for which the complete series of relevant data is available.

In 2008-09, the estimated fiscal balance in NI was a deficit of £9.0 billion (31.3 per cent of GVA).

Total (non-north Sea) public sector revenue collected in NI was estimated to be £12.8 billion in 2008-09, or 2.5 per cent of the equivalent UK total.

In 2008-09, total public sector expenditure in NI was estimated to be £20.8 billion, or 3.5 per cent of the equivalent UK total.

‘Identifiable’ public sector expenditure in NI was estimated to be £18.0 billion in 2008-09, or 3.6 per cent of the corresponding UK total.

‘Non-identifiable’ expenditure was estimated at £2.8 billion in 2008-09, or 2.9 per cent of the equivalent UK amount. Accounting adjustments amounted to a further £1.0 billion or 3.5 per cent of the UK figure for accounting adjustments. This brings the aggregate public expenditure figure to £21.8 billion.

In 2008-09 the net fiscal balance or ‘fiscal deficit’ in NI was equivalent to £5,052 per head. This compares to a per head figure of £1,785 in the UK. The NI fiscal deficit as a percentage of the 2008-09 GVA was 31.3 per cent, which was significantly higher than the UK equivalent of 8.7 per cent.

Unless otherwise stated all estimates are net of North Sea oil revenue and include a per capita share of UK financial sector interventions in 2008-09.

gurramok

That deficit will probably come down a bit as the UK govt is cutting a few billion in expenditure in NI over the next few years.

Welease

gurramok wrote: »

That deficit will probably come down a bit as the UK govt is cutting a few billion in expenditure in NI over the next few years.

It should also be remembered that we have different taxation, social welfare rates, Public Service pay etc. from the UK, so a 1:1 conversion would not be possible (ignoring the sterling to euro conversion also)

darkman2

DylanII wrote: »

Hi,



Anyway something she said was that we would get their GDP and taxes.

lol! What GDP and what taxes!? The North is even more of a basket case than we are and has essentially been bankrupt (as in totally bankrupt) as a region for the past 50 years.

COYW

Welease wrote: »

It should also be remembered that we have different taxation, social welfare rates, Public Service pay etc. from the UK, so a 1:1 conversion would not be possible (ignoring the sterling to euro conversion also)

Yes, all of the above are higher down here, so our public expenditure bill would go up. Also, the private sector is growing slowly up there but the public sector still "rules the roost". They need constant financial support from the mainland UK to keep going. London would drop it like a hot stone if they could.

Dannyboy83

darkman2 wrote: »

lol! What GDP and what taxes!? The North is even more of a basket case than we are and has essentially been bankrupt (as in totally bankrupt) as a region for the past 50 years.

Public spending is something like 70% of GDP in the North (compared to 47% in the Republic and 30% in London).

I think it may actually be the highest of any non-communist country in the world. In fact, it may be higher than one or two of the remaining communist countries.

secretambition

Much of the need for State subsidy has to be down to the fact that it's too small to benefit from economies of scale. If they were combined with us that might be mitigated to some extent.

poeticseraphim

COYW wrote: »

Yes, all of the above are higher down here, so our public expenditure bill would go up. Also, the private sector is growing slowly up there but the public sector still "rules the roost". They need constant financial support from the mainland UK to keep going. London would drop it like a hot stone if they could.

SF has always touted the state should have a company in every aspect of business...so this is where they get there model

It has the smallest population in the uk..but per capita gdp is higher thaan walesand east england apparantly

But the rep could not sustain those levels of public sector employment most certainly.

Actually SF never really goes into an economic plan for a united Ireland which is surprising as it could influence confidence if it was seen as economically possible...but then not surprising as the reality would make it seem undesirable economically to both the rep of Ire and the north....and they know it...plus they woud have to shrink the public sector...or huge resentment would build up between the south and north ..it would be like northern europe vrs the south...only more of a disaster

I don't really think there is much appetite for a united Ireland in reality....on either side of the border for more than economic reasons..the south is happy with complete independance from britain..and the north is happy with self governance within a union



I think after time SFwill have to justify the right to operate in both states to be honest at really every poll shows little support for a united Ireland amongst catholics/ nationalists.

If it happened i would be more concerned about any resulting political fallout woud affect foreign investment..

But secret ambition is correct...it is in a difficult situation being small and removed from the rest of the UK they may have to support it for a long long time yet.

What is funny is that many in the North seem to think that economy in Ireland is bad and thats the reason why economically it might be unsound..not that it'sthe other way around and even in the boom we could not have done it

Infact if we had reunited in the 90's or 80's we probably would not have had the boom

Plus really foreign investment is so important here and we might have political disquiet with any change which scares off investors.

There would be die hard unionists to deal with. Ireland is more independant without them.

And they are not going to take kindly to losing public sector jobs


Plus it is a mindset...i mean imagine living in an area bankrupt for 50 yrs and not getting a private sector flourishing..what mindset is that?

It might destroy us both....with will after a time it might work..but really would thatwill be there?

Anyway it is unlikely to happen even if they got a referendum from what all polls and people generally say ..but who knows?

Sleepy

In short, yes, it would cripple us.

Even if we were to dismantle every public institution up there and absorb some of the workforce into an expanded all-Ireland public sector there'd be a huge extra social welfare bill.

And that's before you even get into the potential for violence from the die-hard wing of the Loyalist population.

the_syco

IIRC, each person in NI gets the most per person in all of the UK, with money pumped from the rest of the UK and Ireland.

Not to mention the amount of money we'd have to spend on Gardai up there.

jester77

A reunification tax of some sorts would need to be introduced to cover the difference in pensions, social welfare, health, etc costs and the increased costs of security.

Tora Bora

Whiners and whingers the lot of them. Both sides and more. Leave them there FFS:eek:

ardmacha

A couple of points here.


In this age of retrenchment of public expenditure, NI will probably not get such munificence continuing even within the UK. A more normal pattern
of public expenditure will probably evolve in any sort of relevant timescale.

In an age of debt, treatment of that debt is relevant to the discussion. NI could achieve a primary balance, i.e. cover its expenditure but not interest payments. Provided it doesn't come with debt then things balance.

Lastly, the most rational thing SF could do was reduce public expenditure in NI, as that would make a UI feasible. They don't seem to even admit to this in theory.

christmas2012

yes

NIMAN

I'm from NI, and honestly, you don't want this to happen.

jonniebgood1

Having previously searched for figures on the money pumped in to the North I don't know where to start on this. The figures are not availiable for the period following 1922, its like a mafia secret or something.

To answer the OP we already have a budget deficit. The last thing we need is an additional budget deficit.

Cork boy 55

The Irish people and government need to start planning for this
the better prepared and ready we are the more likely it will happen
and we would know what the costs and benefits are.

We need a minister and a small dept perhaps a sub-debt of foreign affairs
to look into this and began producing plans and analysis

South Korea has a Ministry of Unification

According to the Ministry website, its major duties are:

• establishing North Korea Policy: The Ministry coordinates the South Korean government's policy toward North Korea and establishes and implements long-term policies for national unification. The Ministry encourages public participation in the overall process. To effectively pursue unification policies, the Ministry analyzes the political, socioeconomic and military aspects of North Korea.
• coordinating inter-Korean dialogue: As the chief government body to communicate with North Korea, the Ministry of Unification coordinates inter-Korean dialogue at all levels in the political, economic, military and humanitarian areas.
• pursuing inter-Korean cooperation: In addition, the Ministry sets the rules and procedures for inter-Korean economic cooperation including those governing Mt. Geumgang tour, Gaeseong industrial complex and reconnection of inter-Korean roads and railways and various exchange programs in the athletic, cultural and academic areas. This includes the pursuit of humanitarian cooperation on human rights conditions in North Korea, South Korean POW and abductee issues, reunion of separated families, settlement support for dislocated North Koreans and cross-border exchanges of goods and people alongside the inter-Korean roads and railways.
• educating the public on unificatio

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ministry_of_Unification

cgarrad

Cork boy 55 wrote: »

...we would know what the costs and benefits are.

I can tell you them now:

Costs:

€10,800,000,000 per year

Benefits:

NONE.

NIMAN

Why would you want to acquire a place where what passes for 'culture' is a loyalist band walking in circles outside a Catholic Church playing sectarian tunes?

Ireland may be bankrupt, but at least its bankrupt in the 21st century.

NI is bankrupt in the 17th century.

Nedser101

I think Ireland would do well out of reunification , just think of the amount of money we would get from car vrt when all them British cars have to re registered Ka Ching ,!,!

FishBowel

Will never happen. We have no claim in our Constitution anymore. Over 90% of people in the North don't want a united Ireland.

the_syco

jonniebgood1 wrote: »

Having previously searched for figures on the money pumped in to the North I don't know where to start on this. The figures are not availiable for the period following 1922, its like a mafia secret or something.

I did come across the figures in Wikipedia before (and posted them here somewhere), but I can't seem to find them again