Will fodder be scarce next winter?

jimmy G M

Ok, $50,000 question I know, but what are your feelings / observations on this? I think that there are heavy crops in the fields and saved, although maybe not of the highest quality. The fact that after grass & second cuts are not coming on stream , together with cattle being housed over the wet period means that many farms may have less fodder starting the winter than they may like?

Reason I am asking question is that we still have circa 20 acres to cut - hoping to cut 7 tomorro but that still leaves 13 acres. Have already decided to let some 15 mth old heifers strip graze out 4 acres and could possibly do another 4 acres this way with cows & calves. All fodder on this 20 acres will be surplus to requirements - possibly 250+ bales. I am just wondering if there will be any sale for this?

Most of the land is rented oldish meadow and wouldn't be of top quality, but perfect for sucklers. There would be little point in baling this up to be sold next winter for €15. If this were to be the case would prefer to graze, top ,and try to have extended grazing in Autumn?

How are people fixed for fodder / any comments?

20silkcut

jimmy G M wrote: »

Ok, $50,000 question I know, but what are your feelings / observations on this? I think that there are heavy crops in the fields and saved, although maybe not of the highest quality. The fact that after grass & second cuts are not coming on stream , together with cattle being housed over the wet period means that many farms may have less fodder starting the winter than they may like?

Reason I am asking question is that we still have circa 20 acres to cut - hoping to cut 7 tomorro but that still leaves 13 acres. Have already decided to let some 15 mth old heifers strip graze out 4 acres and could possibly do another 4 acres this way with cows & calves. All fodder on this 20 acres will be surplus to requirements - possibly 250+ bales. I am just wondering if there will be any sale for this?

Most of the land is rented oldish meadow and wouldn't be of top quality, but perfect for sucklers. There would be little point in baling this up to be sold next winter for €15. If this were to be the case would prefer to graze, top ,and try to have extended grazing in Autumn?

How are people fixed for fodder / any comments?

Just from casual conversation with other farmers at the creamery and mart last week I did not get a sense of panic from any of them about fodder for coming winter. This is North Tipp though. A good few fields around me were felled last weekend and were soaked all week. But things are rolling again now.

bbam

Fodder is being saved but the bigger problem I see is the damage to the land, I've been out of the country for a few weeks and am shocked to see the state of some of the fields that silage has been saved from...

just do it

Quality of fodder will be an issue. Around me in West Clare a lot of lads have the stock in and first cut still growing waiting to be cut, not to talk of second cut.

bear_hunter

is the pope catholic

yes , i think feeding will be scarce next winter as meal will be too dear , concentrates will be extremley expensive as the usa has seen the worst droughts in decades , the maize , soybean and wheat crops are destroyed in some places , effect will be felt next winter when buying meal

KatyMac

I'm inclined to agree - fodder will be scarce. Not many around me have saved their first (and at this rate possibly only!) cut. I'm hoping to start this week as I only ever take one cut (original hay/wildflower meadows!! that have to be left til mid July anyway). I walked the fields today looking for ragwort and was pleased with grass. I'm even hoping to have a few extra bales to sell.

Good loser

There's still a lot of time - and potential growth - to adjust things.

yellow50HX

hmmmm... tricky one. a lot of fellas had silage left over from last winter but have had to use that up over the last few weeks. most peopel have manged to get silage cut so that should be ok its a question over the quality of it on quanity.

the big thing is still grass, the feilds have got an awful pounding and the reqrowth isint there the pits and bales may need to opend earlier (or may be open from now till april). will be hoping that the sun doe scome out to drive on the beet, but if we get another cold winter then that could be f**ked too.

lots of tillage boys down south with troubled crops. the grain yeilds will be well back, the maize is not growing and a lot on linseed and beans are wiped out already.

i reackon a lot of people will be relying on the silage from last year (if its still there) as the meal will be very expensive.

JohnBoy

At the start of may the country was full of silage, with such a short winter and a good year for it last year there was a huge amount of it left over.

It's been a bad few weeks weather alright, but in my recent travels I've still seen huge stocks of bales, and some very tall pits so I dont know how things will go.

I'll report back when we advertise our second cut silage for sale in the next few weeks. It took 3 weeks to find a buyer for the first cut, (versus around three hours last year) so will be interesting to see if there's much interest in the second cut given how the summer has gone since.

Farmer Pudsey

Good loser wrote: »

There's still a lot of time - and potential growth - to adjust things.

If you get dry weather on good land it may be ok. However heavy land is water logged and will take 2-3 weeks to dry out so even if it dried up next week which look the earliest at present it will be mid August before this type of land will have recovered. So I cannot see growth being able to adjust things.

If Rations are very expensive there will be more demand for silage also there will be little or no hay by the way things are going and any that is made will be rubbish. Maize crops will be very poor as will arable silages.

Fellas that but fodder in the west of Ireland, and the one that used straw and ration will be under pressure.

blue5000

I wonder are cattle numbers up much compared to last year, if there is more mouths to feed then fodder will be scarcer. As already mentioned quality will be poor, I reckon it will be better to dry off cows in good condition a bit earlier than other years.

bear_hunter

yellow50HX wrote: »

hmmmm... tricky one. a lot of fellas had silage left over from last winter but have had to use that up over the last few weeks. most peopel have manged to get silage cut so that should be ok its a question over the quality of it on quanity.

the big thing is still grass, the feilds have got an awful pounding and the reqrowth isint there the pits and bales may need to opend earlier (or may be open from now till april). will be hoping that the sun doe scome out to drive on the beet, but if we get another cold winter then that could be f**ked too.

lots of tillage boys down south with troubled crops. the grain yeilds will be well back, the maize is not growing and a lot on linseed and beans are wiped out already.

i reackon a lot of people will be relying on the silage from last year (if its still there) as the meal will be very expensive.

if a lot of fellas have silage left over , how come bales are making over 20 euro for twelve month old feed and are in great demand

bear_hunter

JohnBoy wrote: »

At the start of may the country was full of silage, with such a short winter and a good year for it last year there was a huge amount of it left over.

It's been a bad few weeks weather alright, but in my recent travels I've still seen huge stocks of bales, and some very tall pits so I dont know how things will go.

I'll report back when we advertise our second cut silage for sale in the next few weeks. It took 3 weeks to find a buyer for the first cut, (versus around three hours last year) so will be interesting to see if there's much interest in the second cut given how the summer has gone since.

no one wants to buy pit silage nowadays , their was serious demand for bales this past two months

bear_hunter

blue5000 wrote: »

I wonder are cattle numbers up much compared to last year, if there is more mouths to feed then fodder will be scarcer. As already mentioned quality will be poor, I reckon it will be better to dry off cows in good condition a bit earlier than other years.

was a report a few weeks ago in one of the papers saying that animal numbers were well up this spring

Tipp Man

You'd have to imagine that fodder will be fairly tight around the country

There is a huge amount of stock indoors - at least part of the time - at the moment which will deplete stock pretty rapidly

I would expect bales to be making 25 Euro fairly freely

bbam

Tipp Man wrote: »

You'd have to imagine that fodder will be fairly tight around the country

There is a huge amount of stock indoors - at least part of the time - at the moment which will deplete stock pretty rapidly

I would expect bales to be making 25 Euro fairly freely

I know a fella sold 16 acres of bales, €25 a bale and they'll be collected in the winter. Thing is I reckon he was mostly wasting his time. He took the ground at €110 an acre, fertiliser, mowing, baling, wrapping, and they had five tractors drawing it two miles to be wrapped. I couldn't see him making €5 a bale and it was allot of work. I suppose he has the grazing of it till December when it comes back.

Tora Bora

Tipp Man wrote: »

You'd have to imagine that fodder will be fairly tight around the country

There is a huge amount of stock indoors - at least part of the time - at the moment which will deplete stock pretty rapidly

I would expect bales to be making 25 Euro fairly freely

No question but fodder will be scarce. One cut farmers, will probably have the usual quota saved, albeit with lower quality than usual. I reckon the guys who do two cuts, will be well back, with many grazing some or all the second cut ground. Cattle inside in many places, eating into tightish stocks.
Reckon a lot of fellas who hold spring born suckle calves over the winter, will be off loading straight off the cow this autumn! With increased numbers of cows and calves born last spring, coupled more being sold because of fodder (quantity or quality or combination of both), prices could be back a good bit

JohnBoy

bbam wrote: »

I know a fella sold 16 acres of bales, €25 a bale and they'll be collected in the winter. Thing is I reckon he was mostly wasting his time. He took the ground at €110 an acre, fertiliser, mowing, baling, wrapping, and they had five tractors drawing it two miles to be wrapped. I couldn't see him making €5 a bale and it was allot of work. I suppose he has the grazing of it till December when it comes back.

There's no money to be made selling bales, it's a mugs game if you ask me.

Tipp Man

JohnBoy wrote: »

There's no money to be made selling bales, it's a mugs game if you ask me.

Funny - we are considering getting out of cattle and getting into selling silage (and hay if possible). Lads will be increasing dairy cow numbers and in the main will stop taking large cuts of silage on the home block. We think demand for silage will increase a lot due to this

We'll see

johngalway

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

Fellas that but fodder in the west of Ireland, and the one that used straw and ration will be under pressure.

Depressingly accurate prediction I fear.

F.D

Well if fodder is scarce and what is available is too expensive are we going to see a flood of cattle been sold and the prices plummet ?, for both the factory and mart?

maidhc

JohnBoy wrote: »

There's no money to be made selling bales, it's a mugs game if you ask me.

It isn't too bad. We always sell a bit to cover costs, but we do our own baling and wrapping and own the land. Not worth selling for less than €20 a bale though.

Farmer Pudsey

F.D wrote: »

Well if fodder is scarce and what is available is too expensive are we going to see a flood of cattle been sold and the prices plummet ?, for both the factory and mart?

Weanling/Store prices were always going to be under pressure in the autaum as the numbers the the mart were going to rise this year. The outlook was not great as factory's would have reduced contract prices. Now however the issue will be feeding costs for the winter so what price will factories have to give finishers to get them to fill there sheds, banks will be relucant to give loans unless contract s are in place.

There will be no 500 kg++ store off grass this year like there was last year and the heavy weanling bull will be scarce as well but the price will be under pressure due to fodder costs. Factory prices will be strongish as there will be few forward stores to kill in the fall and year and a half heifers may be scarce as well

I cannot see kill hitting 30K this year or anything like it also on the grapevine I am hearing of factorys looking for cattle people who took 4 euro's last week will be sick. But is is fodder costs that are the killer ration looks like it will be well over the 250/ton, no maize or arable silage and pook quality silage. Also stores of grain will be empty now so farmers will be slower to crimp unless they cannot save it.

JohnBoy

Tipp Man wrote: »

Funny - we are considering getting out of cattle and getting into selling silage (and hay if possible). Lads will be increasing dairy cow numbers and in the main will stop taking large cuts of silage on the home block. We think demand for silage will increase a lot due to this

We'll see

possibly, and hopefully, it's all we do currently as we're so far away, but you wont make much money off land if selling silage is all you're doing with it.

plus you're producing a better crop and with less demand for inputs I think if you can stock the land in the spring and autumn. You already buy in a lot of cattle dont you? cutting that back, but not out, could be a good system.

maidhc wrote: »

It isn't too bad. We always sell a bit to cover costs, but we do our own baling and wrapping and own the land. Not worth selling for less than €20 a bale though.

I dont have my figures to hand, but I think €30 a bale, with a fairly decent crop of bales per acre was the number I worked out you'd need to get before you were earning a premium over renting out the field.

that's all contractor based admittedly, but it looked like far too risky a business to me.

Tipp Man

JohnBoy wrote: »

possibly, and hopefully, it's all we do currently as we're so far away, but you wont make much money off land if selling silage is all you're doing with it.

plus you're producing a better crop and with less demand for inputs I think if you can stock the land in the spring and autumn. You already buy in a lot of cattle dont you? cutting that back, but not out, could be a good system.

.

Thinking of axing the cattle for tillage

Selling silage would be from the land not ploughed. mainly land by the river - good land but you'd mess it up ploughin it

nothing decided yet

maidhc

JohnBoy wrote: »

I dont have my figures to hand, but I think €30 a bale, with a fairly decent crop of bales per acre was the number I worked out you'd need to get before you were earning a premium over renting out the field.

that's all contractor based admittedly, but it looked like far too risky a business to me.

That is assuming you do nothing with the land other than make silage. I have found it to be an effective buffer to the panic selling/buying that goes on. If growth is good you can close a few fields and sell rather than having it grow over the ditches or buy cattle when you would rather avoid.

Doubt going down the route of 100% selling silage is ideal mind.

rs8

id say theres alot of sh!te made this year

bear_hunter

bbam wrote: »

I know a fella sold 16 acres of bales, €25 a bale and they'll be collected in the winter. Thing is I reckon he was mostly wasting his time. He took the ground at €110 an acre, fertiliser, mowing, baling, wrapping, and they had five tractors drawing it two miles to be wrapped. I couldn't see him making €5 a bale and it was allot of work. I suppose he has the grazing of it till December when it comes back.

and you dont think 5 euro a bale is a nice profit , most years , their isnt 5 euro per bale to be made selling silage , costs at least 15 quid per bale to make

bear_hunter

Tipp Man wrote: »

Funny - we are considering getting out of cattle and getting into selling silage (and hay if possible). Lads will be increasing dairy cow numbers and in the main will stop taking large cuts of silage on the home block. We think demand for silage will increase a lot due to this

We'll see

plus you can sell silage for cash

Atilathehun

bear_hunter wrote: »

plus you can sell silage for cash

And the buyer can write it down in his accounts as cash purchase from bear_hunter:D Why should he do otherwise? Revenue inspector would be happy to accept the expense in the accounts, in exchange for the details of source:D

Tipp Man

Atilathehun wrote: »

And the buyer can write it down in his accounts as cash purchase from bear_hunter:D Why should he do otherwise? Revenue inspector would be happy to accept the expense in the accounts, in exchange for the details of source:D

If the revenue come to the seller saying the buyer paid X cash and the seller says he did not deal with the buyer How can the buyer/revenue prove that he paid the seller cash for the bales??

If the seller is selling to many customers and lodges "some" of the cash how can the revenue distinguish between the cash receipts??

bear_hunter

Tipp Man wrote: »

If the revenue come to the seller saying the buyer paid X cash and the seller says he did not deal with the buyer How can the buyer/revenue prove that he paid the seller cash for the bales??

If the seller is selling to many customers and lodges "some" of the cash how can the revenue distinguish between the cash receipts??

silage money is not for lodging , its for drinking or at least grocery shopping

Tipp Man

bear_hunter wrote: »

silage money is not for lodging , its for drinking or at least grocery shopping

We'd be looking to sell 1500-2000 bales - i enjoy a few pints but there is some drinking in that:D

just do it

Tipp Man wrote: »

We'd be looking to sell 1500-2000 bales - i enjoy a few pints but there is some drinking in that:D

I'll give you a hand with it Tipp man

pakalasa

Tipp Man wrote: »

We'd be looking to sell 1500-2000 bales - i enjoy a few pints but there is some drinking in that:D

Jazus, There's both ateing and drinking in 2,000 bales.

ootbitb

JohnBoy wrote: »

There's no money to be made selling bales, it's a mugs game if you ask me.

sure is, especially when buyers don't pay up.:(

1chippy

Anyone read the farming indo today. your bales could be valuable yet. Although i find some of their info a bit exaggerated. Theres a lad near me with Las tyears silage, 10 euro a bale. Chopped bales with some weeds. cant seem to move any large amounts. they are all buying 6 at a time, just to get them through the wet.

Manoffeeling

Will money be scarce next winter?

Farmer Pudsey

1chippy wrote: »

Anyone read the farming indo today. your bales could be valuable yet. Although i find some of their info a bit exaggerated. Theres a lad near me with Las tyears silage, 10 euro a bale. Chopped bales with some weeds. cant seem to move any large amounts. they are all buying 6 at a time, just to get them through the wet.

Farmers are optimists so most are hoping the weather will improve and they can save there own silage, however if it was any way ok if I was short silage and had not my own saved I be buying a good bit as if it was last years it is bound to be better than some of the sh##e that will be baled this year.

Everything points to fodder being scarce and expensive this year. There will be large no's of weanlings and year and a halfs going into sheds, also a bigger suckler and dairy herd. Even if hay is saved it will be poor quality and it is this and straw that a lot of farmers in the West of Ireland depend as it is easy to transport long distances. Silage not yet made will be poor quality that is if it can be made.

According to todays farming indo green grain prices will be heading for 200 euro's/ton and that is if it can be saved.

Now we might get an indian summer we might be cooking the Turkey on the beach:rolleyes:

Sam Kade

Atilathehun wrote: »

And the buyer can write it down in his accounts as cash purchase from bear_hunter:D Why should he do otherwise? Revenue inspector would be happy to accept the expense in the accounts, in exchange for the details of source:D

The new rules with the revenue is that you need receipts for all transactions as far back as 6 years. Even if you paid a company by cheque and didn't have a receipt they would treat it as profit :mad:
This is what was written on IFAC's news letter this year. I don't know if bear_hunter would be safe in this situation but the purchaser would not get it written down as a cost unless bear_hunter was stupid enough to give him a receipt.

bear_hunter

Manoffeeling wrote: »

Will money be scarce next winter?

if money was scarce , would cattle be making what they have been in the mart

Manoffeeling

bear_hunter wrote: »

if money was scarce , would cattle be making what they have been in the mart

A bullock bubble?

jimmy G M

Thx for all responses. I see these's a possibility of a heatwave next week. Mite get a chance to make some hay yet. Going ahead and grazing some of the meadows now - small batches of young stock to limit ground damage.

bear_hunter

Manoffeeling wrote: »

A bullock bubble?

anyone read the article in one of the papers about the huge number of dairy stock china imported from new zealand and other places this past while , this china thing is revolutionary , their may be down periods but the days of cheap cattle or dairy stock may be over , unfortunatley the days of cheap feed and fertilizer is probabley also behind us