Scottish league

thebaz

Celtic are 1/33 to win the Scottish premier league - next up are Dundee Utd. at 25/1

if the odds are anyway accurate , should Celtic just be presented with league before a ball is kicked ?

seriously though, is the league in its current format, sustainable ?

BKC

The odds are accurate. Celtic will absolutely run away with the league. Most of their matches will be pointless -- with their European matches their only real big matches of the season.

I suppose it will give other clubs a chance to get into Europe.

GLaDOS

Hard to see anyone other than Celtic winning the league for the foreseeable future really

CSF

I'll be laying Celtic at those prices. Not that I don't think they will win the league, of course I do. But that price is still over the top.

BKC

CSF wrote: »

I'll be laying Celtic at those prices. Not that I don't think they will win the league, of course I do. But that price is still over the top.

What's the point though? I know it is a ridiculous price but can't see anyone getting within 20 points of Celtic, let alone challenging them.

CSF

BKC wrote: »

What's the point though? I know it is a ridiculous price but can't see anyone getting within 20 points of Celtic, let alone challenging them.

Value. The simple theory that if you back things that are overpriced often enough, and lay things that are underpriced often enough, you will eventually make a profit even if you're backing things that are longshots. Simple stats.

Of course what price something should actually be is entirely open to opinion, which is why we're not all millionaires.

Xavi6

1/5 to win it for the next five years with one crowd the other day.

CSF

Xavi6 wrote: »

1/5 to win it for the next five years with one crowd the other day.

Ridiculously stupid. If someone gave me 7/2 that Celtic won't do that, I would snap that up.

thebaz

is there any other league out their, with such a one sided outcome expected ?

clappyhappy

Personally think the spl is a farce now. Whats there to look forward to, old firm gone, Edinburgh derby is a joke also as hibs have become so poor over the last couple of seasons. So all we are left with is Celtic v hearts, and they haven't been great recently either.

Washington Irving

I wonder how early they can win it? They'll probably set a new record for it

BKC

CSF wrote: »

BKC wrote: »

What's the point though? I know it is a ridiculous price but can't see anyone getting within 20 points of Celtic, let alone challenging them.

Value. The simple theory that if you back things that are overpriced often enough, and lay things that are underpriced often enough, you will eventually make a profit even if you're backing things that are longshots. Simple stats.

Of course what price something should actually be is entirely open to opinion, which is why we're not all millionaires.

I understand that as I do bet myself however I really don't understand why you would lay this, as I can not see even the slightest chance of any other outcome. I would offer odds of 100/1 that Celtic will not win the SPL.

CSF

BKC wrote: »

I understand that as I do bet myself however I really don't understand why you would lay this, as I can not see even the slightest chance of any other outcome. I would offer odds of 100/1 that Celtic will not win the SPL.

That would not be a very intelligent thing to do. Ridiculously unlikely things happen all the time. You take that risk often enough, you end up out of pocket.

Jelle1880

What I find more odd is that Dundee Utd are second.

Based on... what, exactly ?

Ebbs

I wonder how it will effect their crowds tbh. Obviously there is a portion in any teams fans who will be there despite relegation etc, but will they keep coming back if for example..say celtic win it with..8 games to go. People may not be pushed to go. With the exception of the games against Rangers, a less competitive league could be worse for celtic too.

Or they could just get people going to see them win, I assume the former though.

Jelle1880

8 games ?
Try before winter...

grenache

1/33 for Celtic to win is actually decent odds for something that's almost a dead cert. You'd have to lay quite a bit of money to make any decent profit. But a person would make a profit. It's more or less guaranteed. Anyone who had life savings, it would be equivalent to a nice little interest earner.

pickarooney

grenache wrote: »

1/33 for Celtic to win is actually decent odds for something that's almost a dead cert. You'd have to lay quite a bit of money to make any decent profit. But a person would make a profit. It's more or less guaranteed. Anyone who had life savings, it would be equivalent to a nice little interest earner.

What odds would you have got a year ago on Rangers not finishing in the top three in the coming season? With no competition, no big TV deal and no outside interest, it's not beyond the bounds of possibility that Celtic will go bust or be docked a load of points for financial irregularities of their own. I certainly wouldn't put my life savings on it (ignoring the fact that would earn me about 75c!).

oldyouth

SPL has been an uncompetitive league for many years, with Celtic & Rangers taking it in turns to win it. I never understand why so many Irish people follow it.
(no, I don't require a history lesson)

kryogen

1/33 is a pretty accurate price for Celtic this season, they really really don't have to be any way special to walk the league this year, the other teams can't have improved enough over the summer to overturn 30point swings etc

Not exactly something to go nuts on, and I personally am looking at backing Motherwell or Hearts without Celtic

Celtic can be gotten at 1/25 at the mo, Hearts 33/1, Motherwell 50/1 and if someone is looking to back Dundee United they can be gotten at 80/1 as an e/w punt rather then the 15/8 on offer for them without Celtic.

NIMAN

If you are prepared to risk €33 to win €1, I'd be asking myself how much do I really need that extra €1.

The_Kew_Tour

My own tissue would have Celtic somewhere in region of 1/66 to 1/75.

Celtic are far superior to any other team in Scotland as things stand.

Betting w/o Celtic Hearts at 11/4 looks good value.

Relegation wise think there could be value in St Mirren.

Got quote the other day of 2/1 for Hibs to be in Top 6. Took that also.

kryogen

NIMAN wrote: »

If you are prepared to risk €33 to win €1, I'd be asking myself how much do I really need that extra €1.

This is true, backing Celtic is really not going to be popular for the next couple of years at least, but there is still markets available other then them.

Had to laugh at the double shown the other day, Rangers are even money to get back to back promotions, now this is a huge possibility, but even money for it is just terrible odds yet you will have people flocking to get on because it seems like a good bet!

They don't even have a squad of players

The_Kew_Tour

Believe me Patriotism/loyalty is what keeps bookies richer then rich

Coillte_Bhoy

oldyouth wrote: »

SPL has been an uncompetitive league for many years, with Celtic & Rangers taking it in turns to win it. I never understand why so many Irish people follow it.
(no, I don't require a history lesson)

I dont know anyone who follows a league, i follow a club who happen to play in the SPL. You also could ask why do people follow clubs in the epl who haventa hope of ever winning the title.

stovelid

It's not going to help Celtic's European chances surely? At least with Rangers, they had one team in that league that gave them something of a game.

mike65

Actually thats a point, if Rangers are out of the SPL for 3 years what would the knock on be for the Scottish leagues CL/EL coefficient? Or given that Rangers can still win domestic trophies (and probably will) to play in the EL will it make any real difference?

Richard Hillman

Its a handy bet for criminals that need to stash money away. If i were a criminal/fraudster with too much cash laying about, i'd definitely use that bet in an attempt to clean the money or just safe storage.

the realpigiron

thebaz wrote: »

is there any other league out their, with such a one sided outcome expected ?

Rosenborg won 13 titles in a row in Norway between 1991 and 2004. During this time they were also regular performers in the CL Group Stages, often qualifying out of the Group Stage. Rosenborg eventually fell off the wagon, but have got back on again in the last couple of seasons, winning titles and competing in Europe again.

Celtic are a bigger club with more resources than Rosenborg. If they get themselves well organised and focused then Celtic should at least be able to emulate what Rosenborg have done in Europe while dominating their own league.

As regards winning the the title by 20 points or more or whatever, obviously wouldn't touch that. Celtic could quite easily be a good bit ahead by Jan or Feb, and then just pull up towards the finishing line and end up winning the title by only 10 points or less 'cos it won't matter. It's not something I would even consider betting on one way or the other.

aidan24326

CSF wrote: »

I'll be laying Celtic at those prices. Not that I don't think they will win the league, of course I do. But that price is still over the top.

The price is not over the top though. Celtic are a dead cert to win the SPL next season and the bookies have priced it up accordingly. Anything other than a comfortable Celtic title win would be a major shock and the odds reflect that.

Someone like Hearts or Dundee Utd would have to make dramatic improvement from last season to even challenge them, and let's be honest it isn't likely.

NIMAN wrote: »

If you are prepared to risk €33 to win €1, I'd be asking myself how much do I really need that extra €1.

Not many will get involved at those kind of odds. Even the big hitters will wait to see if Celtic maybe have a poor run of form for a few games and then take them at a less prohibitive price. Though you will get some lads that will have 100K on them even at these odds. If you looked around you'd get 1/25 and it'd be probably the easiest 4K you ever made in all honesty. They'll win it by 20+ pts.

edit: if you had 100K to play with of course

mike65

If it were a dead cert there would not be a price. I'm amazed any bookie would quote a price that said, whats the maximum stake?

aidan24326

mike65 wrote: »

If it were a dead cert there would not be a price. I'm amazed any bookie would quote a price that said, whats the maximum stake?

There's always a price. If you see odds like 1/33 or 1/50 that's the bookies way of saying it's a done deal, and anyone prepared to take those kind of odds is going to have to play with some fairly big money, to win relatively small money.

All the risk is therefore with the punter, as if he loses he gets screwed for a big loss, whereas even if it comes in the bookie can't lose too much, because even a 100K bet only pays out winnings of 3K. And only the big bookmakers would even take a bet of 100k.

NIMAN

If a bookie took €100k off you, put it on deposit for 9 months until the SPL is over, sure wouldn't he cover your winnings too?

oldyouth

Coillte_Bhoy wrote: »

. You also could ask why do people follow clubs in the epl who haventa hope of ever winning the title.

Yep, same thing. Only there is more of a chance of a minor EPL team winning the League Cup, FA Cup, qualifying for Europe and generally taking a few big scalps during any given season.

My point was that, if you are not from the area, why would you want to support a team where a defeat is a rare event. Boring I would have thought

NIMAN

oldyouth wrote: »

Yep, same thing. Only there is more of a chance of a minor EPL team winning the League Cup, FA Cup, qualifying for Europe and generally taking a few big scalps during any given season.

My point was that, if you are not from the area, why would you want to support a team where a defeat is a rare event. Boring I would have thought

You serious?

Ever hear of gloryhunting?

sob1467

Putting €100,000 on Celtic to win the league just doesn't make sense. one would earn 3,333 euro on €100,000 which just over 3%. Especially when you can earn just under 5% on a risk FREE savings account.

thebaz

sob1467 wrote: »

Putting €100,000 on Celtic to win the league just doesn't make sense. one would earn 3,333 euro on €100,000 which just over 3%. Especially when you can earn just under 5% on a risk FREE savings account.

if i had 100,000 , i certainly wouldnt risk it on that - money in the bank please - can you imagine how you would feal if the unexpected happened

S28382

SPL is a terrible league - Celtic and Rangers are championship level teams, its proven every year when they compete in europe that they are ****. Celtic will walk the SPL for the next two years and then the SPL will be disbanded as it wont be worth a thing for any team to be in it, its just not sustainable for that league to continue.

CiaranC

oldyouth wrote: »

My point was that, if you are not from the area, why would you want to support a team where a defeat is a rare event. Boring I would have thought

You are talking about the large majority of posters on this forum there.

kryogen

Liverpool are defeated quite a bit, they are probably the largest fan base here. Not a dig at Liverpool, just answering Ciaran C

Coillte_Bhoy

oldyouth wrote: »

Yep, same thing. Only there is more of a chance of a minor EPL team winning the League Cup, FA Cup, qualifying for Europe and generally taking a few big scalps during any given season.

So apart from Portsmouth what minor club has won the fa cup in the last 20 years? And there is always a chance of Celtic qualifying for the champs league or knockout stages of el or cl as well as the odd big scalp in Europe. I honestly fail to see your point.

oldyouth wrote: »

My point was that, if you are not from the area, why would you want to support a team where a defeat is a rare event. Boring I would have thought

Not going down this road again, been done to death on here except to say that its obvioulsy ok in your book to support such a team if they are involved in a more competitive league? How odd. Supporting celtic is far from boring i can assure you.

Coillte_Bhoy

S28382 wrote: »

SPL is a terrible league - Celtic and Rangers are championship level teams, its proven every year when they compete in europe that they are ****. Celtic will walk the SPL for the next two years and then the SPL will be disbanded as it wont be worth a thing for any team to be in it, its just not sustainable for that league to continue.

So, Celtics current squad is c'ship level? Cant really argue with you there, but so what??? And what will replavce the spl may i ask you?

mike65

Scottish football needs re-ordering - two professional divisions of 10 teams each, a semi pro division of 10 teams and everything else amateur.

mike65

Are SKY considering their position on showing SPL 2012/13?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/teams/rangers/9404203/Rangers-in-crisis-Neil-Doncaster-offers-no-assurances-over-SPL-deal-with-Sky.html

eire4

Personally I am looking forward to the new spl season a lot. Celtic obviously are hot favourites to win the league. But everything else is up for grabs. With more chances of success in the league and in the cups hopefully we will see higher attendances at some of the clubs in the hunt for those spots and cups.

As for all the doomsday people out there while there will likely be some near term hurt this could be the catalyst Scottish football needs long term. More clubs dependant on and having to use and develop Scottiish talent. Teams having to live within their means not in some fantasy land. Besides most of the spl teams have effectively had millions stolen from them by the financial doping of the now defunct Rangers with titles, cups, European spots all stolen from them costing other teams large sums.

In addition when Setanta went bust the new tv deal the spl put together with Sky/ESPN was for a substantially lower sum and yet the world didn't end then either.

LuckyLloyd

sob1467 wrote: »

Putting €100,000 on Celtic to win the league just doesn't make sense. one would earn 3,333 euro on €100,000 which just over 3%. Especially when you can earn just under 5% on a risk FREE savings account.

There a few enough banks around at the moment that could be considered risk FREE.

Pompey Magnus

S28382 wrote: »

SPL is a terrible league - Celtic and Rangers are championship level teams, its proven every year when they compete in europe that they are ****.

Last season Celtic did fairly well in the Europa League, were it not for a terrible penalty call in the dying minutes for Udinese Celtic would have finished 2nd in the group stages, the only team to beat Celtic in that group was the eventual winner of the competition Atletico Madrid. How you consider that to be **** seems odd, especially when it is pointed out that Celtic was drawn in the toughest group in the competition as it had two 3rd seed teams and no 4th seed.

Scottish teams have not excelled in Europe over the last few years with the notable exception of Rangers getting to the UEFA final and Celtic haven't achieved much since Strachan left but it requires a very short memory for someone to say that every year Scottish teams prove themselves to be ****.

PauloMN

Not sure what all the doom and gloom is about tbh. Sevco will be in the SPL within 5 years, and by that time, I reckon one or two clubs will have become stronger for it. I personally feel the SPL will be a better league in the long run for all the hassle there is right now.

I'd say a couple of clubs might die off completely, and while I wouldn't wish that on any club, it's like natural selection. Clubs that die off because of this did not have a sustainable model anyway. The clubs that are properly run will survive and become stronger.

I reckon the focus will really turn to young Scottish talent. This will be a great thing for Scottish football. Already we have seen Celtic cooperating with schools to bring young players through programmes that are more focussed than they were, and we're starting to see the fruits of this already (St. Ninians being a good example). Celtic will be bringing more young players through the ranks and buying more Scottish players, they'll have no choice really. This in turn will help other clubs in the SPL who, rather than letting these go to lower league English sides for buttons, will actually make more cash for good prospects.

Coillte_Bhoy

Pompey Magnus wrote: »

Last season Celtic did fairly well in the Europa League, were it not for a terrible penalty call in the dying minutes for Udinese Celtic would have finished 2nd in the group stages, the only team to beat Celtic in that group was the eventual winner of the competition Atletico Madrid. How you consider that to be **** seems odd, especially when it is pointed out that Celtic was drawn in the toughest group in the competition as it had two 3rd seed teams and no 4th seed.

Scottish teams have not excelled in Europe over the last few years with the notable exception of Rangers getting to the UEFA final and Celtic haven't achieved much since Strachan left but it requires a very short memory for someone to say that every year Scottish teams prove themselves to be ****.

Same old ****e from people who generally dont what they are talking aout

Jelle1880

I doubt Aberdeen will be among those getting stronger, got humped by the mighty Elgin City today :pac:

djpbarry

Pompey Magnus wrote: »

Scottish teams have not excelled in Europe over the last few years with the notable exception of Rangers getting to the UEFA final and Celtic haven't achieved much since Strachan left but it requires a very short memory for someone to say that every year Scottish teams prove themselves to be ****.

To be fair, the Scottish league’s UEFA ranking has plummeted over the last few years, to the extent that they’re close to losing one of their two places in the Champions League.