Jet Stream is moving North at last !

allthedoyles

Its been on Sky News - I presume this is good news . - Are we going to geta summer after all ?

Weather experts believe the jet stream, which has been blamed for the recent damp and cold spell, may move north this weekend, allowing more settled, warmer weather to move into the southern half of the country.

The Atlantic jet stream acts like a wall, separating wet and windy weather to the north from settled, sunny conditions to the south.

In a good summer, the jet stream sits to the north of Ireland , shielding us from inclement weather towards the North Pole

http://news.sky.com/story/960631/at-last-sunny-weather-on-the-way-for-uk

vicwatson

As predicted by MT Cranium about a week ago - Sky must be checking out boards.ie

darkman2

Arguably the far southeast of England might get marginally better weather but, back in the real world, there is no sign whatsoever of any break in the weather for the forseeable future for everyone else. It will happen eventually but as far as I can make out it's probably not happening for another two weeks at least! I will see about doing a full forecast for the next 9 days tomorrow with charts and all that. I am not optimistic though at all.

mike65

I know you're a bit obsessed with the worst the weather can throw at us Darkman but its pretty clear now there is tentative trend developing which sees the Azores high creep closer with a general "infill" of higher pressure across NW Europe

Redsunset

http://matthugo.wordpress.com/2012/07/17/late-july-and-early-august-12-whats-expected/

DOCARCH

Probably just means that all the rain and drizzle will move from the south and east to the west and north.

Sponge Bob

The Jet Stream moving north is great news. Were it to kindly bugger off up to the Faroes and stay there until February 2013 I would be vey grateful.

As for the meat and two veg. The current weather system streaming in towards Connacht and Ulster is slap bang under the Jet stream. As the stream was a tad further south until today these weather systems were carried across Munster and Leinster for much this month.

What we need is grey streak up across the North Atlantic and clear white space from Malin to Madeira at this time of year.

Here is the current stream as of 00z



Here is where it was yesterday.





Most of July was spent even further south down around the Pyrenees. Here is an example of what I mean from a week back.




Individual Jet stream charts are no great help in trend analysis.

I recommend you run a 10 day HISTORIC animation HERE to see what is really happening. 10 days at 12 Hour Intervals will clearly show the historic trend and as Darkman always says...'The Trend is your Friend'.

For a Jet Stream FORECAST I recommend the Meteociel GFS Dérivée which is available here. > http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=5 ...and which is not conclusive right now but looking more summer like. It certainly show the High Pressure and warm weather getting close to the south coast and starting to build up already.


HTH.

delw

Here's a good jet forecast from the BBC

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-18876550

Lucreto

Not too happy about this. I was lucky to survive this far into the summer as it is.

The good news from this is that I might get another BBQ this year and a better chance to a cold winter.

Sponge Bob

Where it gets interesting is that the Jet Stream is forecast ( GFS 18z I know) to wither away to nothing by around Tuesday next ( shown below) . This happens on occasion.

This would mean 2 things.

1. The Conveyor belt for crap coming rapidly in from the west shuts down.
2. The wall that resists a northward march of the Azores high crumbles.

OH....I forgot the third thing.

3. JUST IN TIME for the Galway Races.

But the graphic from Meteociel ( see my links post earlier in this thread), if maintained across future GFS runs, is good news for those hoping for dry and warm weather. If I reckon it is worth a "Level 1 Sunstroke Warning" I'll pass the tip to Darkman who was on the ball for our March heatwave IIRC.

Big Tone

With the Jet Stream in decline it's looking very good indeed for next week!

Sponge Bob

Here is a good example of what happens when the Jet Stream gets out of the way.

Jet stream Projection for Sunday 14:00 French Summer Time (12z GMT/UTC or 13:00 BST ..our time ) followed by the Pressure chart at the exact same time.

Notice how fast the Azores high pressure ridge rises into that gap left by the Jet Stream when the high pressure is close by anyway.

Looks very sweet from Weds next...start cleaning up that beach gear if the models hold the pattern.

ednwireland

DOCARCH wrote: »

Probably just means that all the rain and drizzle will move from the south and east to the west and north.

thats NOT a good thing

anyway as long as its reasonable for the olympics the week after next ! Dont fancy sitting outside all day in the rain

leahyl

I assume everybody has seen MT's forecast this morning??!!:eek: Possibly 28-30 degrees next week :eek::eek::D:pac:

Cantona's Collars

leahyl wrote: »

I assume everybody has seen MT's forecast this morning??!!:eek: Possibly 28-30 degrees next week :eek::eek::D:pac:

Told one of the relations that temps could be averaging mid 20's next week & he started complaining that it's gona be too warm:eek::eek: After all the rain & grey days I'd love that bit of sun & heat.Plus the farmers will be dancing in their fields:):)

eskimocat

Well I did mention I had put in a request for some sunny weather as I'll be on hols!
lol Ah the sheer willpower of eskimocat is awesome!! (<<<I wish!)

Sponge Bob

There won't be too many clouds for yeer festival either.

up for anything

Here's the real forecast. :pac:

km79

zerks wrote: »

leahyl wrote: »

I assume everybody has seen MT's forecast this morning??!!:eek: Possibly 28-30 degrees next week :eek::eek::D:pac:

Told one of the relations that temps could be averaging mid 20's next week & he started complaining that it's gona be too warm:eek::eek: After all the rain & grey days I'd love that bit of sun & heat.Plus the farmers will be dancing in their fields:):)

After a few days the farmers will start complaining about drought conditions ...

Speak Now

km79 wrote: »

After a few days the farmers will start complaining about drought conditions ...

Doubt it

Birdnuts

up for anything wrote: »

Here's the real forecast. :pac:

Certainly a good summary of the season so far:pac:

Big Tone

leahyl wrote: »

I assume everybody has seen MT's forecast this morning??!!:eek: Possibly 28-30 degrees next week :eek::eek::D:pac:

No. Where's the link to it?

YR are forecasting at least 20 degrees for next week, nothing near as high as 28 though :eek:

meercat

Big Tone wrote: »

No. Where's the link to it?

YR are forecasting at least 20 degrees for next week, nothing near as high as 28 though :eek:

last post here
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=79805658#post79805658

leahyl

Big Tone wrote: »

leahyl wrote: »

I assume everybody has seen MT's forecast this morning??!!:eek: Possibly 28-30 degrees next week :eek::eek::D:pac:

No. Where's the link to it?

YR are forecasting at least 20 degrees for next week, nothing near as high as 28 though :eek:

Ah it's on this forum ;-) at the top of the page - daily forecast :-)

Jpmarn

After a few days the farmers will start complaining about drought conditions ...[/Quote]
It will take us farmers quite a few weeks to start complaining about drought.

admiralofthefleet

up for anything wrote: »

Here's the real forecast. :pac:

should that not be united kingdom and ireland

the keen edge

Emm wrong forum!

Harps

Some good runs tonight with high pressure being pushed further east than on the past few days predictions. Still a bit far west for proper heat wave territory but a huge improvement due next week

North and west always at risk of some low cloud but even if there is some cloud it should still be warm, humid and dry for most

A nice end to tonight's ECMWF run

force eleven

The Donegal Postman has said the sheep have come down from the mountains and are queueing round the clock for a good shearing. 30 degrees is looking likely :rolleyes:;) then next week.

delw

force eleven wrote: »

The Donegal Postman has said the sheep have come down from the mountains and are queueing round the clock for a good shearing. 30 degrees is looking likely :rolleyes:;) then next week.

When i glanced at your post it thought at first it said "sh**ging"

lolie

delw wrote: »

When i glanced at your post it thought at first it said "sh**ging"

Nearly choked on me tea reading that