Jet Stream is moving North at last !

up for anything

admiralofthefleet wrote: »

should that not be united kingdom and ireland

I nicked it off FB. Haven't got the skill to do it myself or add in Ireland. I was just pleased that someone had given us weather, not like the days of old when on the UK weather we generally had none.

allthedoyles

Theres still rain in the forecast for Sunday / Monday next

mike65

We are in Ireland! Its just getting better not perfect That said apart from some light rain/drizzle late on Monday its been dry for nearly 4 days down here (falls over in shock!)

cherryghost

Looks like I was bang on the money about a week ago so :P Ok maybe not heatwave conditions but temperatures might easily hit the mid 20's.

The pattern has been emerging for the last 10 days now. We're almost at the lock-in point, thank god. I think we're long overdue it and we deserve it.

M.T. Cranium

The model consensus is good for warming Sunday to Tuesday, after that, there are divergent solutions.

The GEM and UKMO seem to favour a steady rise in temperatures in a developing warm to hot southeast flow as they push the ridge axis north of central Ireland and bring in the warmest sourced air mass across southern England into Ireland.

The GFS at 00z has a rather dodgy looking evolution that wipes out the gains made on Monday and Tuesday with a strong cut-off low splitting the ridge and forcing cooler air back from the northeast, no doubt with showers and moderate winds, towards Ireland.

The ECM (which is rated most reliable) says okay, maybe a little of that but not very much ... they keep the core of the warm high to the west of Ireland and so the flow is more northeast than southeast as with the warmest solutions. That would argue for more seasonable temperatures.

Usually we take a blend of possible outcomes which might suggest temperatures in the 22-25 C range each day for about a week from Sunday and possibly longer than that (away from cooler coastal zones). But my gut feeling is that the warmer solutions will verify and that higher temperatures could develop especially central and (by mid-week) western counties, possibly 26-30 at their maximum later in the week. At first the sea effect will be stronger in the south and west, but eventually it could swing around to the east coast where it would not be as strong anyway, just locally cooling breezes rather than large-scale incursions of marine air.

However, the GFS is not always wrong when odd man out, so we need to be cautious at this stage, just in case this gets laid on the table then yanked out of sight (ha ha, there's a pun in there). :cool:

The range of possible temperatures from different model runs at 00z for (as an example) Mullingar by Wed-Thurs is something like 16 to 29 C. That's not very reliable guidance for making a forecast but I will say most likely 23-27 and maybe higher.

sunbabe08

apart from 3 or 4 brief heavy showers on wedesday, totally dry down in youghal for the entire week:eek: shock to my system. any sunshine is good right now. so jet stream finally moving it's lazy backside away from us is all good in my book

Redsunset

Oh dear the 00z GFS is a horror show IMO.

Trough developing and moving right down over Ireland with high pressure staying further west. Hope it's a once off but my confidence has been rocked this morning.

mike65

Yep suddenly it looks very different. *sticks fingers in ears* na-na-na-na-na can't hear you.

To Alcohol

Redsunset wrote: »

Oh dear the 00z GFS is a horror show IMO.

Trough developing and moving right down over Ireland with high pressure staying further west. Hope it's a once off but my confidence has been rocked this morning.

In your view Redsunset would this be a short term horror show or another case of close but no cigar for Irish weather?

DOCARCH

Only one run and one model.

The trend has generally been good for the last while so would have to see a couple of runs before putting the BBQ away for this year.

nilhg

GFS has form on flip flopping from one run to the next and the operational 0z has very little support in the ensembles, personally I'd expect it to change over the next few runs.

MT, in my limited experience of high (+27C) temps in Ireland most of the time they tend to occur once the land has dried out and most of the suns energy goes to heating rather than evaporating moisture from the soil, I think we need a week or two to get to that stage yet.

DOCARCH

nilhg wrote: »

MT, in my limited experience of high (+27C) temps in Ireland most of the time they tend to occur once the land has dried out and most of the suns energy goes to heating rather than evaporating moisture from the soil, I think we need a week or two to get to that stage yet.

Very true! Was talking about this only in the last few days. The last time 30c was reached in Ireland was in July 2006 (afaik) but that was after about 6 weeks dry weather so the ground was very dry (which allowed the higher air temps).

Redsunset

To Alcohol wrote: »

In your view Redsunset would this be a short term horror show or another case of close but no cigar for Irish weather?

Waiting on the next run here. I should stress though that taking each run to heart can be detrimental to health.:D

Plenty of runs to go before this is nailed down but my eagerness for very fine weather has me somewhat impatient.

Big Tone

sunbabe08 wrote: »

apart from 3 or 4 brief heavy showers on wedesday, totally dry down in youghal for the entire week:eek: shock to my system. any sunshine is good right now. so jet stream finally moving it's lazy backside away from us is all good in my book

Not too bad if you're going to Youghal next week...but not great either...Thursday, Friday and Saturday the best days...then dull again for Sunday.

mike65

Wouldn't believe those "automated" forecasts, here's Waterford from some stupid site in the States.

http://www.weatherforecastmap.com/ireland/waterford/

edit - The latest run is better for longer with a blip from next Friday for about 4 days

Deep Easterly

Redsunset wrote: »

Plenty of runs to go before this is nailed down but my eagerness for very fine weather has me somewhat impatient.

A quick skim of the 12z run (GFS) reveals no great shakes either with some sort of trailing front (albeit in weakened form) having trouble moving completely away from our shores over the course of much of next week. This scenario seems to have a little support in the ECMWF 00z Ens as well but an equal number keeping trough potential further east. Will be an interesting one to keep an eye on I think to see how it pans out in the end, if not necessarily all that interesting in the actual weather experience.

ECMWF 00z Ensemble Mean MSLP for 144hrs (Next Thurs 00z)


Image from the ECMWF

leahyl

What a glorious day!! Summer has begun :-)

compsys

leahyl wrote: »

What a glorious day!! Summer has begun :-)

Not sure where u are but it's a poor enough day in Dublin. Cool and cloudy. Next weeks forecast is looking increasingly poor too. The jet stream has only moved away fron over London really. Not Ireland.

Sponge Bob

compsys wrote: »

Not sure where u are but it's a poor enough day in Dublin. Cool and cloudy. Next weeks forecast is looking increasingly poor too.

Looks great in the West, days of 20c+ temps from tomorrow onwards.

glossy

compsys wrote: »

Not sure where u are but it's a poor enough day in Dublin. Cool and cloudy. Next weeks forecast is looking increasingly poor too. The jet stream has only moved away fron over London really. Not Ireland.

nice on this side of Dublin.

leahyl

compsys wrote: »

leahyl wrote: »

What a glorious day!! Summer has begun :-)

Not sure where u are but it's a poor enough day in Dublin. Cool and cloudy. Next weeks forecast is looking increasingly poor too. The jet stream has only moved away fron over London really. Not Ireland.

There are places outside of Dublin :-P I'm in Cork and the sun is splitting the stones here!!

km79

leahyl wrote: »

compsys wrote: »

leahyl wrote: »

What a glorious day!! Summer has begun :-)

Not sure where u are but it's a poor enough day in Dublin. Cool and cloudy. Next weeks forecast is looking increasingly poor too. The jet stream has only moved away fron over London really. Not Ireland.

There are places outside of Dublin :-P I'm in Cork and the sun is splitting the stones here!!

Same in Galway

delw

Hope everyone that has summer weather is enjoying it
It's overcast with a temp of 18c but with a bit of a breeze taking the edge off it :mad:
If only the jet would feck off a bit further north

Birdnuts

compsys wrote: »

Not sure where u are but it's a poor enough day in Dublin. Cool and cloudy. Next weeks forecast is looking increasingly poor too. The jet stream has only moved away fron over London really. Not Ireland.

The 06Z GFS does not make for pleasent viewing - torrential rain over the middle of the country on Tuesday between the heat over the UK and cooler air to our North:(

Gonzo

next week still looks like a considerable improvement on what we've had since the 1st week of June. There may be some heavy rain at times but at least it wont be raining relentlessly for 7 days and the temperatures should be in the mid to high teens.

Lucreto

22.6C in Naas at the moment. It is warm but dull and a breese has appeared.

But still I have the BBQ out and I am going to make the most of it.

Only my second BBQ this year and it the third week in July.

Gonzo

Gonzo wrote: »

next week still looks like a considerable improvement on what we've had since the 1st week of June. There may be some heavy rain at times but at least it wont be raining relentlessly for 7 days and the temperatures should be in the mid to high teens.

Sounds like a bloody nightmare tbh, midges everywhere and a damp heat, don't like it.

compsys

Gonzo wrote: »

next week still looks like a considerable improvement on what we've had since the 1st week of June. There may be some heavy rain at times but at least it wont be raining relentlessly for 7 days and the temperatures should be in the mid to high teens.

Heavy rain and temps in the mid teens? Sure isn't that what we've had to put up with all summer?

After the long extended miserable spell we've had for the past 10 weeks we're really due a decent settled warm spell.

Next week just looks average now. A slight improvement on recent weeks, yes, but only just.

Things could still change. Let's hope they do.

IrishHomer

compsys wrote: »

Gonzo wrote: »

next week still looks like a considerable improvement on what we've had since the 1st week of June. There may be some heavy rain at times but at least it wont be raining relentlessly for 7 days and the temperatures should be in the mid to high teens.

Heavy rain and temps in the mid teens? Sure isn't that what we've had to put up with all summer?

After the long extended miserable spell we've had for the past 10 weeks we're really due a decent settled warm spell.

Next week just looks average now. A slight improvement on recent weeks, yes, but only just.

Things could still change. Let's hope they do.

I thought the rte news tv at six o clock sounded fairly gloomy when they talked about the coming week.

There was heavy bursts of rain this evening in Athlone and Clara, Offaly.

leahyl

Forecast extremely meh there :-(