IMF: social welfare benefits 'too high'

djpbarry

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

Countries do constantly devalue by letting there currency float as the USA and GB did at the start of this crisis. If we had a currenct that we could float up and down as exporting firms be more compeditive and employ more worker's, there by reducing the cost of welfare and increasing the tax base. The massive cost of highly paid government civi servants which cause us to have high rates and excessive costs of compliance where employers have to deal with lots of difference agencies . The high cost of welfare which makes it very expensive to employ workers.

What has the devaluing of sterling done for the UK economy? It's given us inflation and little else. In many ways, the Irish economy is in a better state than the British.

I am not at all convinced that devaluing a currency yields any significant economic benefit - you can't just conjure prosperity out of thin air. Furthermore, I really don't think that handing control of a currency back to an Irish government is a particularly good idea.

I'm going to leave this here as it's not entirely relevant to the original topic of the thread.

sarumite

General Atomic wrote: »

The UK undertaking austerity measures makes no sense though and it's damaging their economy at the worst possible time. Austerity and deficit reduction are poorly-veiled attempts to pushing conservative ideals with regards to small government and the undercutting of public services.

The UK can still borrow at a reasonable rate to fund their deficit, partly because they are undertaking efforts to reduce their budget deficit. I am sure they will push their conservative agenda no less than Hollande in France will use 'economic stimulus' to push his liberal agenda. Its what governments do. However, the current state of austerity in the UK is out of necessity, not political convenience.

ardmacha

The UK can still borrow at a reasonable rate to fund their deficit, partly because they are undertaking efforts to reduce their budget deficit

They are not reducing their deficit any more than Ireland is. They have a lower rate of interest because they can print money to repay the loans and because higher inflation is increasing nominal GDP and so mitigating the increase in the debt/GDP ratio.

Tipp Man

ardmacha wrote: »

Most PS pay is returned in income tax, levies and the like. Welfare recipients pay no direct taxes, in general. People in the PS might save less, and spend more, if everyone wasn't trying to cut their pay.

This had been said a million times but evidently that is not enough

The PS don't generate tax revenues - that is merely a recycling of the tax revenue generate by the non government economy

sarumite

ardmacha wrote: »

They are not reducing their deficit any more than Ireland is. They have a lower rate of interest because they can print money to repay the loans and because higher inflation is increasing nominal GDP and so mitigating the increase in the debt/GDP ratio.

My reply was relating to whether the UK is undergoing austerity for political or economic reasons. I believe it is the former. The rate at which they are closing their deficit is unrelated to that.

That said, Ireland cost of borrowing has steadily decreased, whereas the UK is already very low so it doesn't have room to move downwards any more however both have generally been going in the right direction.

QE was justified under the believe that they could improve liquidity within the economy and by doing so, that it could help get the economy moving again and not as a way of paying back their debt. Deflating the value of ones currency via QE to pay off debts can only work for so long.

Geuze

http://www.oecd.org/document/28/0,3746,en_2649_33729_50404572_1_1_1_1,00.html

The OECD publish comparative data on benefits and wages, see above.

sarumite

ardmacha wrote: »

Most PS pay is returned in income tax, levies and the like. Welfare recipients pay no direct taxes, in general. People in the PS might save less, and spend more, if everyone wasn't trying to cut their pay.

Its a good thing you are not into making broad stroke generalisations :rolleyes:

I personally am not in favour of across the board pay cuts in the PS and have never advocated for them on boards.ie. I would prefer the government to abandon the shameful CPA and reintroduce benchmarking. A third round of benchmarking within the PS the long long overdue. The unions have agreed with the principle of benchmarking, the government agreed to it, the general population didn't make any major objections to it twice before. Its a fair and reasonable approach that avoids the moral quagmire of guaranteeing jobs and pay in a recession.

ardmacha

Shock 0.7% fall in UK GDP deepens double-dip recession

The UK is not really a success story. The main difference is that here people know there is a problem. Ireland's construction/house prices have already collapsed and construction will show modest gains in the future, post Olympics UK construction may well reduce significantly. Sterling's increase re the Euro will not help things in Britain either.

sarumite

ardmacha wrote: »

Shock 0.7% fall in UK GDP deepens double-dip recession

The UK is not really a success story. The main difference is that here people know there is a problem. Ireland's construction/house prices have already collapsed and construction will show modest gains in the future, post Olympics UK construction may well reduce significantly. Sterling's increase re the Euro will not help things in Britain either.

I never said it was a success story. Perhaps it would be nice if you read my posts before posting knee jerk responses.

Gumbo

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

Most social welfare comes straight back into the economy where PS pay is stored as indicated by the very high rate of saving in the economy 17 % . This storage of capital is postponed demand but in our economy right now stored demand is useless .

Anything to back this up?
My PS pay is gone by the night before the next pay day and im afraid i have no savings at present, not even a rainy day fund

But on the bright side, my bills are paid and im paying my mortgage, so im better off than alot of others.

golden lane

ardmacha wrote: »

Shock 0.7% fall in UK GDP deepens double-dip recession

The UK is not really a success story. The main difference is that here people know there is a problem. Ireland's construction/house prices have already collapsed and construction will show modest gains in the future, post Olympics UK construction may well reduce significantly. Sterling's increase re the Euro will not help things in Britain either.

the uk, as in many countries have their problems.....i have been here for fifty years.....have heard it all before....i worked in the construction industry for most of those years.....

the point is.....ireland is not the uk....and in my opinion should not relate to it....

it is a completely different economy, not only in size.....

despite all the bad news on the economic front....house prices have not collapsed...there are jobs being created...

recessions don't last forever.....and a wise economy will plan for that, so as it is not left behind.....

there is a problem all over europe, there are too many people to be kept by too few.....

coolshannagh28

kceire wrote: »

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

Most social welfare comes straight back into the economy where PS pay is stored as indicated by the very high rate of saving in the economy 17 % . This storage of capital is postponed demand but in our economy right now stored demand is useless .

Anything to back this up?
My PS pay is gone by the night before the next pay day and im afraid i have no savings at present, not even a rainy day fund

But on the bright side, my bills are paid and im paying my mortgage, so im better off than alot of others.

I can't imagine much saving going on in the private sector ,unfortunately the CSO have ceased to issue any figures remotely relevant to the real economy , so much of what is happening here is open to a lot of debate as is evident from this forum .

ardmacha

sarumite wrote:

I never said it was a success story. Perhaps it would be nice if you read my posts before posting knee jerk responses.

I posted a breaking news link that I thought would be informative in the context of the discussion. I didn't take issue with anything you said. Perhaps yours is the knee jerk response.

coolshannagh28 wrote:

I can't imagine much saving going on in the private sector

There is a great deal of saving in the economic sense, which includes debt repayment, going on in the private sector. If there was more spending then money would circulate better, but general uncertainty inhibits this.

Tipp Man

ardmacha wrote: »

There is a great deal of saving in the economic sense, which includes debt repayment, going on in the private sector. If there was more spending then money would circulate better, but general uncertainty inhibits this.

Maybe if we had saved more and spent less in the years 2000-2008 we wouldn't be in half the mess we are in - both government and personal

coolshannagh28

coolshannagh28 wrote:

I can't imagine much saving going on in the private sector

There is a great deal of saving in the economic sense, which includes debt repayment, going on in the private sector. If there was more spending then money would circulate better, but general uncertainty inhibits this.[/Quote]

That's an opinion , the indigenous private sector is on its knees are there any statistics on this or are they being buried .if the saving rate in the economy has risen from 6% in 06 to 17 % today where is this saving happening ?
It goes without saying that spending needs to happen

sarumite

ardmacha wrote: »

I posted a breaking news link that I thought would be informative in the context of the discussion. I didn't take issue with anything you said. Perhaps yours is the knee jerk response.

The story was unrelated to what I said and yet you provided very little context as to why you posted in reponse to my post

ardmacha

if the saving rate in the economy has risen from 6% in 06 to 17 % today where is this saving happening ?

This is an opinion, but a reasoned one. Saving is probably not happening from people on welfare. Of people in work most of these work in the private sector and many of these are receiving pay rises. Such people can service their loans, but are probably not taking out new ones, so are saving.

The story was unrelated to what I said and yet you provided very little context as to why you posted in reponse to my post

Fair enough, your quote was probably not the best link for the information.

Count Dooku

Geuze wrote: »

http://www.oecd.org/document/28/0,3746,en_2649_33729_50404572_1_1_1_1,00.html

The OECD publish comparative data on benefits and wages, see above.

Then according to OECD Ireland is only country where make more sense to stay on dole rather than work, because net replacement rate for somebody on 67% of average wage is 108%

Gumbo

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

I can't imagine much saving going on in the private sector ,unfortunately the CSO have ceased to issue any figures remotely relevant to the real economy , so much of what is happening here is open to a lot of debate as is evident from this forum .

and i said, I can't imagine much saving going on in the public sector.

So, again, have you any figures to back up this claim :

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

where PS pay is stored as indicated by the very high rate of saving in the economy 17 % .

coolshannagh28

ardmacha wrote: »

if the saving rate in the economy has risen from 6% in 06 to 17 % today where is this saving happening ?

This is an opinion, but a reasoned one. Saving is probably not happening from people on welfare. Of people in work most of these work in the private sector and many of these are receiving pay rises. Such people can service their loans, but are probably not taking out new ones, so are saving

I don't agree my reasoning would be that as the average wage(outdated CSO figures ) in the private sector is e600 per week it would be virtually impossible to save any of this wheras the average PS wage of e900 per week would allow substantial saving .

Gumbo

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

I don't agree my reasoning would be that as the average wage(outdated CSO figures ) in the private sector is e600 per week it would be virtually impossible to save any of this wheras the average PS wage of e900 per week would allow substantial saving .

yeah i agree, although that average PS pay figure is almost double what i earn

ardmacha

I don't agree my reasoning would be that as the average wage(outdated CSO figures ) in the private sector is e600 per week it would be virtually impossible to save any of this wheras the average PS wage of e900 per week would allow substantial saving .

You'll have to try harder. Firstly, it would depend on people's circumstances. Secondly, there are more people in the private sector earning €900+ than in the entire public sector.

djpbarry

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

I don't agree my reasoning would be that as the average wage(outdated CSO figures ) in the private sector is e600 per week it would be virtually impossible to save any of this wheras the average PS wage of e900 per week would allow substantial saving .

Why do you say those figures are outdated?

coolshannagh28

djpbarry wrote: »

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

I don't agree my reasoning would be that as the average wage(outdated CSO figures ) in the private sector is e600 per week it would be virtually impossible to save any of this wheras the average PS wage of e900 per week would allow substantial saving .

Why do you say those figures are outdated?

The CSO seems to have stopped breaking down the numbers since 2008 there was a huge disparity then and I can't imagine it has improved

djpbarry

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

The CSO seems to have stopped breaking down the numbers since 2008 there was a huge disparity then and I can't imagine it has improved

They're updated every quarter? Latest figures from June 2012 are available here.

coolshannagh28

djpbarry wrote: »

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

The CSO seems to have stopped breaking down the numbers since 2008 there was a huge disparity then and I can't imagine it has improved

They're updated every quarter? Latest figures from June 2012 are available here.

I'm sorry , I've been on there already and unless I'm missing something there's a lot of statistics but very little information as seems to be the case with all CSO publications

djpbarry

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

I'm sorry , I've been on there already and unless I'm missing something there's a lot of statistics but very little information....

I'm confused - what information are you looking for?

woodoo

ardmacha wrote: »

Most PS pay is returned in income tax, levies and the like. Welfare recipients pay no direct taxes, in general. People in the PS might save less, and spend more, if everyone wasn't trying to cut their pay.

Thats true, the constant threat of cuts and chatter in the media about cutting PS pay has a lot of them saving their money. The Sunday Independent talked up the property boom and now they are going on so much about the PS they may be influencing them to hoard their money. I'm a public servant and it really is non stop talking down the PS.

woodoo

kceire wrote: »

Anything to back this up?
My PS pay is gone by the night before the next pay day and im afraid i have no savings at present, not even a rainy day fund

But on the bright side, my bills are paid and im paying my mortgage, so im better off than alot of others.

I'm the same i have 5 euro left till friday.

General Atomic

sarumite wrote: »

The UK can still borrow at a reasonable rate to fund their deficit, partly because they are undertaking efforts to reduce their budget deficit. I am sure they will push their conservative agenda no less than Hollande in France will use 'economic stimulus' to push his liberal agenda. Its what governments do. However, the current state of austerity in the UK is out of necessity, not political convenience.

So it's necessary to introduce austerity to shrink the economy, increasing the debt-to-GDP ratio, decreasing tax receipts and increasing social welfare costs because...?

Britain hasn't actually closed the deficit gap or reduced their debt anymore than the U.S or Japan have. Their bond yields are low because they're safe ports in the Euro storm.

sarumite

General Atomic wrote: »

So it's necessary to introduce austerity to shrink the economy, increasing the debt-to-GDP ratio, decreasing tax receipts and increasing social welfare costs because...?

They spend more than they earn and they can't keep going on spending more than they earn.

Britain hasn't actually closed the deficit gap or reduced their debt anymore than the U.S or Japan have. Their bond yields are low because they're safe ports in the Euro storm.

US and Japan are both trying to reign in their deficits as well. I could have written the above statement to support my argument.

Heads the ball

sarumite wrote: »

They spend more than they earn and they can't keep going on spending more than they earn.

This point of view is too simplistic. I think what the previous poster was trying to say is that Austerity will have the effect of crushing demand, leading to less taxes and less jobs which in turn will make the deficit worse and it hasnt worked in Britain.

And when Britain is compared to less-austere countries (US and Japan) they dont look much better.

djpbarry

Heads the ball wrote: »

This point of view is too simplistic. I think what the previous poster was trying to say is that Austerity will have the effect of crushing demand, leading to less taxes and less jobs which in turn will make the deficit worse and it hasnt worked in Britain.

People keep harping on about crushing demand while conveniently overlooking the fact that Ireland’s deficit has been reduced quite considerably with relative ease.

Heads the ball

djpbarry wrote: »

People keep harping on about crushing demand while conveniently overlooking the fact that Ireland’s deficit has been reduced quite considerably with relative ease.

But it hasnt: weve had extra income tax, pension levies for civil servants, reduced welfare, extra vat.

AND we're told more of the same is needed

Might I remind you we have also traded our sovereignty.

So it hasnt been with relative ease for most people

AlekSmart

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

I'm sorry , I've been on there already and unless I'm missing something there's a lot of statistics but very little information as seems to be the case with all CSO publications

Valid point.

One good starting point is the Departments own Annual Report.

http://www.welfare.ie/EN/Policy/ResearchSurveysAndStatistics/Documents/2011stats.pdf

Some quite clear indicies here

Boskowski

Heads the ball wrote: »

Might I remind you we have also traded our sovereignty.

Sorry to call you on this one since its something you keep going on about even on the other thread.

Ireland has not traded her sovereignty (least of all down to the fact that would be a merchandise no one is really interested in).
The truth is she had gotten herself into a bit of a situation where already depending on rollover borrowing (like most other countries) the whole rollover thing broke down 'cos her government at the time and a fair share of her people lost the run of themselves starting to believe their own bubble based hype.
Now others keep her rolling over and their only demand is that she may want to slow down the roll rate so that things can go back to 'normal' and she can also pay the additional rollover money back.

You make it sound like poor innocent Eire was taken advantage of by false friends eventually losing her vir... erm sovereignty under dubious circumstances when in fact she had a fair few too many and was - knickers down - dancing on the table.

daffyduck1

Tipp Man wrote: »

Post of the day - well said

if every 1 pays the household charge there wd be no problem and when its 1000 euro per house it be better again .more money for the state and we have more money for social welfare child benefit etc.come on wake up people and stop protesting cause ye cant pay a 100 euro .ye spent it on drink or fags dont ye so well think abt that now.and just sign up and pay ye wont get away with it .the goverment will make it hard for ye who dont pay.is ye are the ones wreaking your country u decides not to pay household charge.:cool: if we all play our part things will go well .so come on people.just pay. like i said 100 euro wont break the bank.

Head The Wall

ardmacha wrote: »

You'll have to try harder. Firstly, it would depend on people's circumstances. Secondly, there are more people in the private sector earning €900+ than in the entire public sector.

Average private sector wage in the UK is £466 and the public sector is £480. I don't see why there is such a disparity in Ireland's situation.

Gumbo

Head The Wall wrote: »

Average private sector wage in the UK is £466 and the public sector is £480. I don't see why there is such a disparity in Ireland's situation.

are we in the UK?

motor tax on a 530d here is €1400, its £250 in the UK. Comparissons work both ways.

Heads the ball

Boskowski wrote: »

Sorry to call you on this one since its something you keep going on about even on the other thread.

Ireland has not traded her sovereignty (least of all down to the fact that would be a merchandise no one is really interested in).
The truth is she had gotten herself into a bit of a situation where already depending on rollover borrowing (like most other countries) the whole rollover thing broke down 'cos her government at the time and a fair share of her people lost the run of themselves starting to believe their own bubble based hype.
Now others keep her rolling over and their only demand is that she may want to slow down the roll rate so that things can go back to 'normal' and she can also pay the additional rollover money back.

You make it sound like poor innocent Eire was taken advantage of by false friends eventually losing her vir... erm sovereignty under dubious circumstances when in fact she had a fair few too many and was - knickers down - dancing on the table.

So you say we didnt trade it - we lost it. Fair enough. We lost it is the point.

djpbarry

Heads the ball wrote: »

But it hasnt...

Really? By what measure?

Heads the ball

djpbarry wrote: »

Really? By what measure?

By the measures set out in the rest of that post, right after the colon

azzie

I know some people who moved from UK to Ireland. In the UK they didn't get any welfare, but here they get Medical Cards, Household Package and €200 a week to top up their pensions. Is the UK mean or are we stupid?

Count Dooku

kceire wrote: »

Head The Wall wrote: »

Average private sector wage in the UK is £466 and the public sector is £480. I don't see why there is such a disparity in Ireland's situation.

are we in the UK?

motor tax on a 530d here is €1400, its £250 in the UK. Comparissons work both ways.

Do you mean that in Ireland only PS workers can drive luxury cars,so they must be paid in average more than private sector in average?

djpbarry

Heads the ball wrote: »

By the measures set out in the rest of that post, right after the colon

I was referring to quantitative measures.

Gumbo

Count Dooku wrote: »

Do you mean that in Ireland only PS workers can drive luxury cars,so they must be paid in average more than private sector in average?

you trying to force words into other peoples mouths again :rolleyes:

I know many private sector workers driving 530d's and also 535d's not to mention M3's etc etc

I dont know many PS workers with those cars, and a quick walk around our carpark proves my point.

Also, a 530d is an example, the same goes for tax on a punto, micra and of course the average mid size car such as avensis, mondeo etc etc etc etc etc etc............

creedp

Count Dooku wrote: »

Do you mean that in Ireland only PS workers can drive luxury cars,so they must be paid in average more than private sector in average?

At last the real reason for the inflated public sector pay bill .. I never realised those young successful looking drivers of Audi A6's/BMW 530ds/etc were public sector workers ... I know where to direct my private sector anger (eggs) from now on...

EchoO

azzie wrote: »

I know some people who moved from UK to Ireland. In the UK they didn't get any welfare, but here they get Medical Cards, Household Package and €200 a week to top up their pensions. Is the UK mean or are we stupid?

GP visits in the UK are free for everybody, there is a prescription fee of £7.65 per item but pensioners would be exempt. There's not much difference between that and our medical card system. The UK's state pension is the lowest in the OECD.

creedp

EchoO wrote: »

GP visits in the UK are free for everybody, there is a prescription fee of £7.65 per item but pensioners would be exempt. There's not much difference between that and our medical card system. The UK's state pension is the lowest in the OECD.

In good auld Ireland a [vulnerable] pensioner can earn €700 a week as an individual and €1,400 as a couple and still qualify for a medical card (and consequently be exempt from the USC). I think one of the big problems in Ireland is defining 'vulnerable'. Maybe we should attempt to include an uniquely Irish version of the term in the dictionary

Heads the ball

djpbarry wrote: »

I was referring to quantitative measures.

So was I