Jacking in dole for maths gambling sysyem

Where To

looper333 wrote: »

If you actually read the thread you would see that we have already covered this, no big losses are possible so no big bets are placed. Just because many people lose does not mean it is impossible to win continually, it makes it easier as there is always money to take. The betting you state is something i evolved past many years ago, must be something you do and the level you are on but i applaud you work , all be it for pittance, you do pay taxes. I just hope Betquack can keep going as there liquidity is very bad and the site not very pretty to use. Also if you read you would have seen i stated that i was paper trailing for the entire 18 weeks since i have been working on equation over years of researching and bad punting. If you had read first you would have known this, maybe you should check the form first and in time you would not be so resentful.

You sound like a maths teacher that used to come in to our local, he had a system too, but he never used it or disclosed it because the bookie was his neighbour and he didn't want him 'cleaned out of it'. :pac:

areyawell

Let me know when you are millionaire and have proof of this magical system from online betting history. I'm done with this

looper333

Ficheall wrote: »

I still don't know how much money looper is gambling on any given day.

good question i forgot to answer, i have not recorded exactly them figured but i reckon it would average out to about 100/150 a day in total. There are a few days when zero is bet and a busy day maybe it would total 400 or 500 bet in total but that would be relatively rare.

Jesus Wept

So much drool from nitty Marys who haven't a clue, ignore them OP.
GO FOR IT and if you need a hand, any tips or a good martinggale system pm me.

You've put the hours in and got yourself a dole to fall back on so you have nothing to lose.

looper333

areyawell wrote: »

Let me know when you are millionaire and have proof of this magical system from online betting history. I'm done with this

You still wouldn't believe it and i would never ever divulge it unless someone give me a flat out few million tax free. That would never happen. In time though maybe i will find a way to convince people.

areyawell

Another tendancy of problem gamblers is too make up systems that think will work. There mind will try and implement it and warp ways around to think that the system will work and then go back to gambling. Also thinking about not paying your rent and your esb really sounds like you have a serious gambling problem.

tommyboy2222

looper333 wrote: »

Do i pay my bills or start playing for real with my current bank at 5 euros per unit until i increase bank. I won't get thrown out of apartment just yet but i am getting letters threatening eviction if not paid. It would take a few months to evict me legally and i am sure i could get away with esb for 4 months at least. It could take months before i get 300 odd bank again to start with as times are very hard and there just is no jobs although i admit i would not take a low paying job working with people who can hardly count. I have had very well paid jobs of over 2k a week before but not for a number of years.

Do i just go for this like a true Irishman or be a wimp and just pay bills and keep paper trailing for a few months until i can maybe get up a big enough bank to start. Saving small amounts of money a week is impossible unless i have a lot coming in.

Backing and laying is essential. No trading, that is for people with big money, type of money i once had but blew.

Sean Quinn, would you ever stop this nonsense and start working on getting back taxpayers money ??

And tell your good for nothing nephew to get his arse down to the courts !!!:pac:

areyawell

looper333 wrote: »

You still wouldn't believe it and i would never ever divulge it unless someone give me a flat out few million tax free. That would never happen. In time though maybe i will find a way to convince people.

you can convince people by actually winning money!! and show the profits from say paddy power for a year then PEOPLE might start believing you! Why not show your first weeks profit next week?

Where To

looper333 wrote: »

You still wouldn't believe it and i would never ever divulge it unless someone give me a flat out few million tax free. That would never happen. In time though maybe i will find a way to convince people.

Ok convince us

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/meeting/ascot/21-07-2012/fast-cards

Give us three or four horses.

Duggys Housemate

areyawell wrote: »

Another tendancy of problem gamblers is too make up systems that think will work. There mind will try and implement it and warp ways around to think that the system will work and then go back to gambling. Also thinking about not paying your rent and your esb really sounds like you have a serious gambling problem.

He hasnt spent any money yet.

Ficheall

looper333 wrote: »

good question i forgot to answer, i have not recorded exactly them figured but i reckon it would average out to about 100/150 a day in total. There are a few days when zero is bet and a busy day maybe it would total 400 or 500 bet in total but that would be relatively rare.

I'm baffled by the attachments you provided, to be honest. Haven't a clue what any of it means, nor do I care. As requested previously, I would just be curious to see
Week 6:
Gross amount of cash handed over to the "bookie".
Gross amount of money handed back by the "bookie".
Week 7:
Gross amount of money handed over to the "bookie".
Gross amount of money handed back by the "bookie".

etc.

I do not see how you can go on ad nauseum about this wonderful system and not have figures for how much you actually spent?

looper333

areyawell wrote: »

you can convince people by actually winning money!! and show the profits from say paddy power for a year then PEOPLE might start believing you! Why not show your first weeks profit next week?

Sure results posted from sites could be changed so would not prove anything, you really should think ahead first on these amateur suggestions.

3ndahalfof6

OK so I have studied your system looper333, it took me quite some time to find a serious flaw in it but I did, and with some tweaking I think I have it sorted,

my equation + you equation = pure profit,

the problem I have here is I will not share how I have worked this out with anyone, while I would like to wish you all the best with your system, it will only get you the sleeves where as I will have the full jacket,

to think that nobody else could work out your system was foolish, hence you have had the biggest loss you could of incurred,

once again, thank you and I wish you God speed.

Yours,
Q

looper333

Ficheall wrote: »

I'm baffled by the attachments you provided, to be honest. Haven't a clue what any of it means, nor do I care. As requested previously, I would just be curious to see
Week 6:
Gross amount of cash handed over to the "bookie".
Gross amount of money handed back by the "bookie".
Week 7:
Gross amount of money handed over to the "bookie".
Gross amount of money handed back by the "bookie".

etc.

I do not see how you can go on ad nauseum about this wonderful system and not have figures for how much you actually spent?

They are daily results profit with totals at end and in orange results in conjunction with a tweak and Sunday rest saver. Like i said average of 100/150 in bets. I could work the exact out but i was more interested in recording results. The equation never has any risk of blowing your entire bank in a day.

bnt

An elementary Fourier analysis on your weekly values shows a variance of over 2 standard deviations on the 5th harmonic of the series. Your equation is susceptible to stochastic blowback on the Laplacian eigenvector every 5 weeks, plus or minus 20 hours. I wouldn't touch that equation unless I could verify the reducibility of its Jacobian matrix determinant.

ArtyM

Antisocialiser wrote: »

There's no chance your flatmate is The_Dazzler?

looper333

3ndahalfof6 wrote: »

OK so I have studied your system looper333, it took me quite some time to find a serious flaw in it but I did, and with some tweaking I think I have it sorted,

my equation + you equation = pure profit,

the problem I have here is I will not share how I have worked this out with anyone, while I would like to wish you all the best with your system, it will only get you the sleeves where as I will have the full jacket,

to think that nobody else could work out your system was foolish, hence you have had the biggest loss you could of incurred,

once again, thank you and I wish you God speed.

Yours,
Q

You assume that i wanted praise for it. It was never implied of this, maybe that is what other people judge by their own standards. I was simply pointing out that i had decent results of an equation i had worked on and that i needed to pay bills but i had a starting bankroll. Your post i don't understand the sinister tone.

looper333

bnt wrote: »

An elementary Fourier analysis on your weekly values shows a variance of over 2 standard deviations on the 5th harmonic of the series. Your equation is susceptible to stochastic blowback on the Laplacian eigenvector every 5 weeks, plus or minus 20 hours. I wouldn't touch that equation unless I could verify the reducibility of its Jacobian matrix determinant.

Trust me!

3ndahalfof6

looper333 wrote: »

You assume that i wanted praise for it. It was never implied of this, maybe that is what other people judge by their own standards. I was simply pointing out that i had decent results of an equation i had worked on and that i needed to pay bills but i had a starting bankroll. Your post i don't understand the sinister tone.

as did I, as I don't.

WumBuster

Hate to break it to you but the house always wins. Thats why in gambling there's a house edge which means that the odds are always in their favour. If you are one of those very, very few people who has found a system to beat the bookies fair play to you, but how often do you see bookies or Casinos closing down?. There's lots of people selling winning gambling systems online but these are just scams. A mathsy type friend of mine came up with a system a few years ago but at closer inspection there were a few fundamental flaws, one being that he was being over optimistic about certain outcomes. You might be winning now in the short run, but what about the long run? What about the worst possible scenario, which always WILL happen. I dont think you should be wasting your time or money on this. If you want to make money in that industry, become a bookie.

fatguy

Why not start with money you can afford? 50c/unit would work just as well, it just wouldn't pay the bills until a long time has passed.

ceegee

From a quick read through your posts a few things stood out -

1 - you stop betting if you win big, why? If your system works, it should still work independent of that race.

2 - the no betting on sundays rule - this makes no sense from a maths point of view, the system should work regardless of day if the maths are sound.

If you cant come up with sound reasons why these 2 problems occur, Id think again about gambling your last few quid away.

If you believe your system is that good, approach a few bookies for a job, theyd love someone of your ability working for them. The reality is nobody has a surefire way of winning unless theyre setting the odds or can affect the outcome

looper333

ceegee wrote: »

From a quick read through your posts a few things stood out -

1 - you stop betting if you win big, why? If your system works, it should still work independent of that race.

2 - the no betting on sundays rule - this makes no sense from a maths point of view, the system should work regardless of day if the maths are sound.

If you cant come up with sound reasons why these 2 problems occur, Id think again about gambling your last few quid away.

If you believe your system is that good, approach a few bookies for a job, theyd love someone of your ability working for them. The reality is nobody has a surefire way of winning unless theyre setting the odds or can affect the outcome

I explained the Sunday element as having a day off as being important and that study has shown that Sunday betting is slightly different. There was winning Sundays as in results but there are very good reasons not to include Sundays unless in profit after Satuurday racing. I will start with 5 euros per unit from next week. anything smaller would get frustrating.

Duggys Housemate

ceegee wrote: »

The reality is nobody has a surefire way of winning unless theyre setting the odds or can affect the outcome

I have one. Bet on the losing team 2-0 down at 15 mins to go, going on to lose the match. On Bet Fair.

looper333

WumBuster wrote: »

Hate to break it to you but the house always wins. Thats why in gambling there's a house edge which means that the odds are always in their favour. If you are one of those very, very few people who has found a system to beat the bookies fair play to you, but how often do you see bookies or Casinos closing down?. There's lots of people selling winning gambling systems online but these are just scams. A mathsy type friend of mine came up with a system a few years ago but at closer inspection there were a few fundamental flaws, one being that he was being over optimistic about certain outcomes. You might be winning now in the short run, but what about the long run? What about the worst possible scenario, which always WILL happen. I dont think you should be wasting your time or money on this. If you want to make money in that industry, become a bookie.

Exchange sites take away that edge slightly . All results stated are including commission deductions. The bookies win so it is possible. In the long run? How long before it is the long run, 18 weeks has to be approaching a good basis of analysis. Last 2 weeks were the first consectetive ropey weeks, this week it has been ok and stands at 163 so a good day tomorrow would be end of week. Ideally i would love another 18 weeks analysis. There will be a time when there is a bad 2 or 3 weeks in a row but i am confident that will be very rare. If it isn't i will post the results.

Good interacting with all of you. I will keep updates coming when requested. I am not looking praise or anything of the sort, good input is welcome and a bit of craic. If things continue to go well and i can make a few grand then maybe we can come up with some way of proof ie a donation to charity we can all view or some sort of stunt we can all agree on.

Duggys Housemate

So you use exchange sites?

WumBuster

Duggys Housemate wrote: »

I have one. Bet on the losing team 2-0 down at 15 mins to go, going on to lose the match.

And whats your rationale for this? Im seriously thinking of becoming a bookie reading this thread

zarquon

looper333 wrote: »

I don't mind you think i'm mad at all as i have surely heard this before but i have also had a lot of successes financially in life outside things like this so the madness can work for me.

You have had a lot of successes in life, but cannot pay your rent and esb and are only a few steps away from being homeless. You purport to have many systems and plans to fix our social welfare system and make yourself a millionaire by playing with virtual money. If you were as analytical and systematic as you posture you would most certainly be in employment of some type. There is no doubt a mathematical formula to your system as there is with many systems but undoubtedly there is an unknown variable in the equation which is an element of risk associated with an unforseen chance event, such as a horse falling, penalty or red card in football etc. An event like this can nullify your stake regardless of the maths. It doesn't matter if you are using some modified form of Kelly criterion, martingale or Labouchere system etc or some obscure method within game theory. They are sound in theory but the element of a chance event or a limited or prohibited bankroll are variables that negate the concreteness of the formula.

If you put as much effort into finding work as this you may be on to something. I could go online and play with tons of virtual money placing lots of stakes on a basic martingale system on a roulette table. Its easy to do so with virtual stakes, however when its cold hard cash its a different prospect. Will you be willing to place those bets when you have no food on the table, no light or heat and no roof over your head? Think about all the times in the past when you thought you were on to a winner only to end up with nothing and in the current hole you are in, with nothing to show for your life. Start placing real bets and see if you can follow through with physical cash. Have you also allowed for the discrepancy of crapping yourself as you click a submit button with your only money. Fear will introduce a big variance in your stakes and results, hence why you haven't bothered to stake real money yet. If your system was so wonderful you wouldn't have that fear that has held you back and tied you to a virtual exercise for the last 5 months. You are afraid because of unknown variables and the knowledge that you might fail, that much is quite evident

Duggys Housemate

WumBuster wrote: »

And whats your rationale for this? Im seriously thinking of becoming a bookie reading this thread

Good man, it has nothing to do with bookies. Keep up.

Of course you wont win on average against a house. you probably wont win on average against a bookie, but you might. You can easily win on average against muckers on bet fair.

ceegee

Duggys Housemate wrote: »

ceegee wrote: »

The reality is nobody has a surefire way of winning unless theyre setting the odds or can affect the outcome

I have one. Bet on the losing team 2-0 down at 15 mins to go, going on to lose the match.

Any chance you can lend me one of your millions so?
everton v united last year would have lost you a lot of money, so would various other matches. Unless your system takes into account injuries, opposition players on yellows, and the temperment of both teams it isnt a foolproof system.

Also a team thats 2 goals up needing one point (or for whom 1 point is acceptable) is more likely to drop points in that position than a team that needs a win to survive or stay in the title race

3ndahalfof6

Duggys Housemate wrote: »

So you use exchange sites?

he is gone, like the trail left by Halley's comet, but to return in 75 yrs.

jobeenfitz

I like de name looper. I predict, with a name like that you ARE gona gamble your rent money. Dont. Its not worth being homeless over. you have put in so much time and effort why not wait a little while more. Im not great at maths and cant make sense of your system. I back horses myself. I usually back 1 or two horses 3 or 4 days of the week. I study the form, watch videos etc. If you are that sure of your system, sell something you can do without or borrow the money or just leave it til you can afford it.

Duggys Housemate

ceegee wrote: »

Any chance you can lend me one of your millions so?
everton v united last year would have lost you a lot of money, so would various other matches. Unless your system takes into account injuries, opposition players on yellows, and the temperment of both teams it isnt a foolproof system.

Also a team thats 2 goals up needing one point (or for whom 1 point is acceptable) is more likely to drop points in that position than a team that needs a win to survive or stay in the title race

Where did I say anything about millions? The bet is against a team 2 goals down going on to win the game. On Bet Fair people will risk £10 for £100 for many a bet; because of sentiment, because they think the odds are higher than they are, because Chelsea are 2-0 to United and United are scum,because Chelsea are 2-0 down to Scunthorpe, but mainly because a chance to win 100-200 is worth a flutter. The odds are much lower than they think, hundreds or thousands to one. And so they lose, and you win.

Not that I do this.

looper333

zarquon wrote: »

You have had a lot of successes in life, but cannot pay your rent and esb and are only a few steps away from being homeless. You purport to have many systems and plans to fix our social welfare system and make yourself a millionaire by playing with virtual money. If you were as analytical and systematic as you posture you would most certainly be in employment of some type. There is no doubt a mathematical formula to your system as there is with many systems but undoubtedly there is an unknown variable in the equation which is an element of risk associated with an unforseen chance event, such as a horse falling, penalty or red card in football etc. An event like this can nullify your stake regardless of the maths. It doesn't matter if you are using some modified form of Kelly criterion, martingale or Labouchere system etc or some obscure method within game theory. They are sound in theory but the element of a chance event or a limited or prohibited bankroll are variables that negate the concreteness of the formula.

Like i staed before this is the volution of many failed researches and bad punting that was always going to lose. This is very different than any of that and i have worked very hard this year putting it all together. The last 18 weeks have been studying the results. There is no way of getting results from the past as it simply is impossible to get details i needed. I have had many successes in life and many occasions has tens of thousands , i was younger and i always blew it. I never said i was great at money management but i did have some good times. I have had some better times with no cash, that is just the way i am. I was born into very modest financial circumstances. I have been homeless before , i have lived abroad before , i have stayed in fancy hotels , all the extremes. I have no fear of any of this. I am currently struggling to pay rent but it it isn't out of control , i could pay it off right now and be completely in clear but i would not have any bankroll to play with as i was clear from beginning in stating.. I was also clear it was not a martin gale system that can send you broke on a bad run in one day. All them systems are child play. I can only work for myself and i will succeed in my main goal of completing a novel i have been working on part time for last couple of years. I had relative success in that criteria before but have everything to prove. The present reality is a poor one financially but this is the crossroads.

Duggys Housemate

ceegee wrote: »

Any chance you can lend me one of your millions so?
everton v united last year would have lost you a lot of money, so would various other matches. Unless your system takes into account injuries, opposition players on yellows, and the temperment of both teams it isnt a foolproof system.

Also a team thats 2 goals up needing one point (or for whom 1 point is acceptable) is more likely to drop points in that position than a team that needs a win to survive or stay in the title race

Can you name the many other matches? There are 2 x (N-1)^2 matches in the premiership - in any league - where N is the number of teams. This doesnt include FA cup, League cup, Europa, Champions league, or the Champsionship where there are bets all the time.


The system takes into account nothing. It doesnt care if Man. United are down 2-0 to Schunthorpe, or Scunthorpe are 2-0 down to United.

Edit: Sorry 2 goals down. Could be 3-1. Also the bets should be in the last quarter.

If one catches up, lay off some of the bet. There will be an occasional loss.

looper333

jobeenfitz wrote: »

I like de name looper. I predict, with a name like that you ARE gona gamble your rent money. Dont. Its not worth being homeless over. you have put in so much time and effort why not wait a little while more. Im not great at maths and cant make sense of your system. I back horses myself. I usually back 1 or two horses 3 or 4 days of the week. I study the form, watch videos etc. If you are that sure of your system, sell something you can do without or borrow the money or just leave it til you can afford it.

This is what my head tells me.

WumBuster

Zab wrote: »

^ That's called a martingale system by the way, and it of course doesn't work.

For this to work you would need:
A lot of time
A limitless bankroll
Tremendous discipline
Absolutely no bad luck or losing streaks whatsover

Also the casinos and on online are wise to this and have mechanisms put in place to combat it

3ndahalfof6

looper333 wrote: »

zarquon wrote: »

You have had a lot of successes in life, but cannot pay your rent and esb and are only a few steps away from being homeless. You purport to have many systems and plans to fix our social welfare system and make yourself a millionaire by playing with virtual money. If you were as analytical and systematic as you posture you would most certainly be in employment of some type. There is no doubt a mathematical formula to your system as there is with many systems but undoubtedly there is an unknown variable in the equation which is an element of risk associated with an unforseen chance event, such as a horse falling, penalty or red card in football etc. An event like this can nullify your stake regardless of the maths. It doesn't matter if you are using some modified form of Kelly criterion, martingale or Labouchere system etc or some obscure method within game theory. They are sound in theory but the element of a chance event or a limited or prohibited bankroll are variables that negate the concreteness of the formula.

Like i staed before this is the volution of many failed researches and bad punting that was always going to lose. This is very different than any of that and i have worked very hard this year putting it all together. The last 18 weeks have been studying the results. There is no way of getting results from the past as it simply is impossible to get details i needed. I have had many successes in life and many occasions has tens of thousands , i was younger and i always blew it. I never said i was great at money management but i did have some good times. I have had some better times with no cash, that is just the way i am. I was born into very modest financial circumstances. I have been homeless before , i have lived abroad before , i have stayed in fancy hotels , all the extremes. I have no fear of any of this. I am currently struggling to pay rent but it it isn't out of control , i could pay it off right now and be completely in clear but i would not have any bankroll to play with as i was clear from beginning in stating.. I was also clear it was not a martin gale system that can send you broke on a bad run in one day. All them systems are child play. I can only work for myself and i will succeed in my main goal of completing a novel i have been working on part time for last couple of years. I had relative success in that criteria before but have everything to prove. The present reality is a poor one financially but this is the crossroads.

I can safely say you outwitted me, I tip my hat.

kumate_champ07

make a living from gambling?
become a bookie.

ceegee

Duggys Housemate wrote: »

ceegee wrote: »

Any chance you can lend me one of your millions so?
everton v united last year would have lost you a lot of money, so would various other matches. Unless your system takes into account injuries, opposition players on yellows, and the temperment of both teams it isnt a foolproof system.

Also a team thats 2 goals up needing one point (or for whom 1 point is acceptable) is more likely to drop points in that position than a team that needs a win to survive or stay in the title race

Can you name the many other matches? There are 2 x (N-1)^2 matches in the premiership - in any league - where N is the number of teams. This doesnt include FA cup, League cup, Europa, Champions league, or the Champsionship where there are bets all the time.


The system takes into account nothing. It doesnt care if Man. United are down 2-0 to Schunthorpe, or Scunthorpe are 2-0 down to United.

Edit: Sorry 2 goals down. Could be 3-1. Also the bets should be in the last quarter.

If one catches up, lay off some of the bet. There will be an occasional loss.

The total number of games isnt important, only the total number of games with a 2 goal gap at 75 minutes. 23% of premier leagues goals are scored in the final minutes.

Havent the time tonight to look up all last years fixtures to see how many had a 2 goal lead at 75 mins and the results, will check over the weekend. What % of games ending in a comeback would be enough to screw someone out of their bankroll if theyre laying against those odds? I certainly dont think a comeback from 2 goals down to draw is a 100 to 1 shot as stated earlier

edit: also, saying you could lay against some bets shows (a) you realise the simplistic system outlined doesnt work by itself (b) a certain amount of skill to know when/if to lay is required, so its not just the system thats needed

WumBuster

zarquon wrote: »

You have had a lot of successes in life, but cannot pay your rent and esb and are only a few steps away from being homeless. You purport to have many systems and plans to fix our social welfare system and make yourself a millionaire by playing with virtual money. If you were as analytical and systematic as you posture you would most certainly be in employment of some type. There is no doubt a mathematical formula to your system as there is with many systems but undoubtedly there is an unknown variable in the equation which is an element of risk associated with an unforseen chance event, such as a horse falling, penalty or red card in football etc. An event like this can nullify your stake regardless of the maths. It doesn't matter if you are using some modified form of Kelly criterion, martingale or Labouchere system etc or some obscure method within game theory. They are sound in theory but the element of a chance event or a limited or prohibited bankroll are variables that negate the concreteness of the formula.

If you put as much effort into finding work as this you may be on to something. I could go online and play with tons of virtual money placing lots of stakes on a basic martingale system on a roulette table. Its easy to do so with virtual stakes, however when its cold hard cash its a different prospect. Will you be willing to place those bets when you have no food on the table, no light or heat and no roof over your head? Think about all the times in the past when you thought you were on to a winner only to end up with nothing and in the current hole you are in, with nothing to show for your life. Start placing real bets and see if you can follow through with physical cash. Have you also allowed for the discrepancy of crapping yourself as you click a submit button with your only money. Fear will introduce a big variance in your stakes and results, hence why you haven't bothered to stake real money yet. If your system was so wonderful you wouldn't have that fear that has held you back and tied you to a virtual exercise for the last 5 months. You are afraid because of unknown variables and the knowledge that you might fail, that much is quite evident

I agree with this post(although you could have spared the dole lecture as we dont know what the exact circumstances of that is)

But yeah, its one thing having the maths side of things all worked out and ready to go, but probably the most crucial factor in gambling is discipline and bottle. Gambling is a very emotive activity. If you had a couple of losses in a row, your mood changes and you start to panic, which could mean placing a bet outside what you would normally do and probably the last of your money. Or if you are on a winning streak, depending on your personality you become over confident and start making crazy bets ah sure, ''Ive plenty more where that came from'' cue losing a few in a row and your back down on the other side again. Its all swings and roundabouts in gambling and I know from my previous attempt at becoming a professional poker player its about how well you can hack
those crucial moments, psychologically. Walking away when your ahead, or making that big bet(All in) if the situation requires it. Theres few who can do it on a consistent basis, i couldnt. Id just end up getting tired or swept away in the emotion. The bookies and whatnot dont just make their money from the maths, but the flaws in human emotion that we all get from time to time. That is all

Duggys Housemate

ceegee wrote: »

The total number of games isnt important, only the total number of games with a 2 goal gap at 75 minutes. 23% of premier leagues goals are scored in the final minutes.

Of course the number of games matter. That's the denominator. And its 2 goals down for a reason. Also its betting against a win. So the losing side needs three goals in 15 - 20 minutes. Of course you need to offer better odds as the time runs out, doesn't matter.

Havent the time tonight to look up all last years fixtures to see how many had a 2 goal lead at 75 mins and the results, will check over the weekend. What % of games ending in a comeback would be enough to screw someone out of their bankroll if theyre laying against those odds? I certainly dont think a comeback from 2 goals down to draw is a 100 to 1 shot as stated earlier

The last one you mentioned was in Everton vs United in April, that's 100+ of games ago, across the Championship, FA cup, Champions league etc.

edit: also, saying you could lay against some bets shows (a) you realise the simplistic system outlined doesnt work by itself (b) a certain amount of skill to know when/if to lay is required, so its not just the system thats needed

No, I expect to lay out very few, and in fact I personally wouldnt bother. Others might.

This is not my system, but I know it would work mathematically.

ceegee

Duggys Housemate wrote: »

ceegee wrote: »

The total number of games isnt important, only the total number of games with a 2 goal gap at 75 minutes. 23% of premier leagues goals are scored in the final minutes.

Of course the number of games matter. That's the denominator. And its 2 goals down for a reason. Also its betting against a win. So the losing side needs three goals in 15 - 20 minutes. Of course you need to offer better odds as the time runs out, doesn't matter.

Havent the time tonight to look up all last years fixtures to see how many had a 2 goal lead at 75 mins and the results, will check over the weekend. What % of games ending in a comeback would be enough to screw someone out of their bankroll if theyre laying against those odds? I certainly dont think a comeback from 2 goals down to draw is a 100 to 1 shot as stated earlier

The last one you mentioned was in Everton vs United in April, that's 100+ of games ago, across the Championship, FA cup, Champions league etc.

edit: also, saying you could lay against some bets shows (a) you realise the simplistic system outlined doesnt work by itself (b) a certain amount of skill to know when/if to lay is required, so its not just the system thats needed

No, I expect to lay out very few, and in fact I personally wouldnt bother. Others might.

This is not my system, but I know it would work mathematically.

You started off saying it was that they wouldnt lose (ie draw or win) - big difference from winning

There may have been hundreds of games but how many were +2 @ 75 minutes. You could have 50 0-0 draws but those games dont count as part of the system. The only games being bet on are the +2 games (a small enough minority of games)

Id also doubt Utd-Eve was the last game it happened just the first that sprung to mind.

afterburn1

I'm not going to knock you op but horse racing has nothing to do with maths. I have backed horses for 35 years and believe me the bad days far outweigh the good ones. There is however one formula that does work if you have enough money to see it through. Pick a number, a jockey or whatever and keep doubling your stake until they or it wins, then start again.

afterburn1

WumBuster wrote: »

So in your 35 years, you've never had a horrendous losing streak that gobbled up all your money? You've never had a moment of madness where you put on a bet you shouldnt have thus ruining weeks or months of successful gambling?

I've put on thousands of bets I shouldn't have. the system I mentioned isn't something I use because if the first 10 horses lose I don't have the capital to put the 11th bet on.
For instance if the 1st bet is €10 and the first 10 bets lose then the 11th one will be for €10240 if you get my meaning.

WumBuster

I get your meaning. And if you had enough capital anyway there's smarter things to be doing with it!

Canis Lupus

afterburn1 wrote: »

I've put on thousands of bets I shouldn't have. the system I mentioned isn't something I use because if the first 10 horses lose I don't have the capital to put the 11th bet on.
For instance if the 1st bet is €10 and the first 10 bets lose then the 11th one will be for €10240 if you get my meaning.

It has already been said a million times in this thread that that system doesn't work...

WumBuster

Canis Lupus wrote: »

It has already been said a million times in this thread that that system doesn't work...

technically it does work. But there's so many other mitigating factors that renders it close to impossible for most people.

Duggys Housemate

It works with infinite resources. But then, why would you bet?

WumBuster

Duggys Housemate wrote: »

It works with infinite resources. But then, why would you bet?

exactly. If you had a huge bankroll, probably hundreds of thousands that you would need to make this work realistically, there's faster, smarter and less tedious and time consuming ways to make a return on your money.

say for example you have a 300K bankroll, and you go on a losing streak down to the last bet for say 150K, why the **** would you place your last 150K on just one race? its just plain crazy