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Jacking in dole for maths gambling sysyem

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Comments

  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 34,567 ✭✭✭✭Biggins


    Zab wrote: »
    If your story is true then the general formula that bookies use to come up with the odds is flawed (at least in some situations), and they're offering bets that average a profit for the punter. If the bookies has access to the new system they would alter their odds to give themselves a profit margin, which would negate his edge.

    The program he wrote to suit his knowledge of the sport was based on the random statics of the horse, its owner, rider and many, many other variables which was then incorporated into his personal app.
    To be honest, it was something that was way, way over my head.
    He just placed his bets when the found the odds that he liked. It was all about timing - which lets be honest - is open to always constant non-guaranteed fluctuations.

    I though he was mad to be honest but he seemed happy enough to dedicate so much of his time/life to his program - and he did it out of love of the sport combined with his far superior knowledge of computer languages.
    It certainly was not my cup of tea but it worked for him somehow. :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,734 ✭✭✭zarquon


    Looper, there is an easy answer, post some betting slips or balances as proof of sucess. I could come on here bragging about how much money i make in a simulation but it means nothing. If you are so sure go ahead and start tomorrow with all of your bank balance as you are certain it cannot fail. The longer you procrastinate, only show greater hesitancy and less confidence in your system and abilty. I do believe you have a good system and in the right hands could be very successful. The question remains, do you have the bottle for it though and only real stakes will show that. I have several sources of income including a 9 to 5, some part time consultancy and trading on the exchanges. I would never give up these as they give me greater stability life, if one falls through i can carry one with little effect to my standard of living. You have a sense of entitlement and i disagree with that completely. I work hard and make a lot more than you, even at your peak but i won't believe that it is guaranteed forever hence why i safeguard my future as much as possible with AVCs,long term deposits and some bonds with low but safe returns. I have protected myself in case of disaster and even if i lost all my income now, i could survive very comfortable for a long, long time with no drop in my standard of living. You lived for the moment in the past and it cost you. A system is no good without having a good head and a cool head. Your emotional responses and descriptions of past run-ins with the law indicates an inability to keep cool under pressure. A system is fine on a winning streak, what happens on a bad streak. Only a cool disciplined head will survive that and you have admitted you lack discipline and everything you tell us about your life shows a lack of discipline hence why i believe you may ultimately fail and sadly you might ruin what could be a very good system. My systems are ok, not world beating by any means, but they give me a statistical edge and coupled with a bit of wisdom i turn over figures on the exchanges that make your paper trail look average. Your system may be better than some of mine, but i have a proven track record of having the bottle for it and even if anything ever went pear shaped i have my job and nixers to keep me going and even they provide more income that your paper trail, actually my main job does that all by itself. I have no sense of entitlement no one owes me anything, including the state. Your only income you have actually stated comes from litigation, gambling and social welfare. I don't know the details of your job, but saying your expertise does not make you employable in an industry makes me double think your statement about having a good education. Do you have a PHD in renaissance art or something? :)

    Seriously OP, start putting up real logs, not virtual logs and you will quieten the doubters including me. Its that easy.


  • Registered Users Posts: 208 ✭✭looper333


    erkifino wrote: »
    Funny, that was my thought.


    With the religious tones throughout isn't gambling frowned upon by most religions?

    Anyway, been following this thread and I barely post as I find not a lot of people can ever see any other view but their own. Gambling is not something I would do personally, but if you are legit I wish you best of luck and if you are trolling or researching a filum good luck with that too! Life is too short to not do what you want to do!

    Proof that not everybody on here is sad, vile or stupid. There are some good posts too.

    I am legit in relation to equation... i don't know what trolling is, i am writing a novel that is almost complete and i completely agree ...life is too short. Gambling on Sundays is a no no , i don't see the rest as gambling though as it is merely trading.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 11,255 ✭✭✭✭Esoteric_


    looper333 wrote: »
    i don't see the rest as gambling though as it is merely trading.


    It's not trading, it's gambling. Betting on horses is not trading.

    If that's how you justify yourself to your 'God,' I wish you luck when you're standing outside the gates of whatever after-life pradise you believe in.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,184 ✭✭✭3ndahalfof6


    looper333 wrote: »
    Proof that not everybody on here is sad, vile or stupid. There are some good posts too.

    I am legit in relation to equation... i don't know what trolling is, i am writing a novel that is almost complete and i completely agree ...life is too short. Gambling on Sundays is a no no , i don't see the rest as gambling though as it is merely trading.

    ooooooooooooooook, how the fook did you get into the office computer.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 850 ✭✭✭erkifino


    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troll_(Internet)
    Here ya go!

    If ya ever get that novel published send me a PM!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,931 ✭✭✭Zab


    I gave a system which could make money and nobody has refuted it yet. They would need to work out how many football teams score 3 goals to win a match in the last quarter, and divide by the number of games per season across all leagues, and cups. It's far lower than the odds you get on exchanges.

    Is it though? I think the issues with your argument are an inadequate sample size (as per ceegee's post above), no concrete examples of what the odds are on exchanges in these circumstances, and a general underestimation of the market makers on the exchanges.

    Also, you would have to actually lay the bets in order to see how the market reacts. You may find that as soon as you lay a price you are immediately outbid by a market maker's bot. This is because their bots often won't outbid the rest of the market by too high a margin unless they need to compete with outside sources such as bookies.

    We're in agreement that it's possible to make money in this fashion from exchanges, I'm just not yet convinced on your particular example. The key difference between what you're arguing and what OP is arguing is that you're getting value from the bets themselves whereas OP claims he is getting value from the way he combines bets. In practice you also have to consider the fact that when you're starting out you'll be paying a higher commission than those you're competing against (the other market makers), which means given the same true odds they would be able to offer better odds than you while still profiting.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,734 ✭✭✭zarquon


    Me too, i'd love to read a novel from the mind that brought us this thread. Novelist, Mathematical genius, trading expert, casanova pursued by women all over the world. I need to buy you a pint sometime and see the amazing person before me, don't worry though, i'll pick you up in my nice car as you don't have enough money for a bus fair. The gardai are always after you too apparently...........wait a second, you're Frank Abagnale Junior aren't you. I love your biography, catch me if you can. I must watch it again soon. Are you a pilot and a doctor too?


  • Registered Users Posts: 208 ✭✭looper333


    zarquon wrote: »
    Looper, there is an easy answer, post some betting slips or balances as proof of sucess. I could come on here bragging about how much money i make in a simulation but it means nothing. If you are so sure go ahead and start tomorrow with all of your bank balance as you are certain it cannot fail. The longer you procrastinate, only show greater hesitancy and less confidence in your system and abilty. I do believe you have a good system and in the right hands could be very successful. The question remains, do you have the bottle for it though and only real stakes will show that. I have several sources of income including a 9 to 5, some part time consultancy and trading on the exchanges. I would never give up these as they give me greater stability life, if one falls through i can carry one with little effect to my standard of living. You have a sense of entitlement and i disagree with that completely. I work hard and make a lot more than you, even at your peak but i won't believe that it is guaranteed forever hence why i safeguard my future as much as possible with AVCs,long term deposits and some bonds with low but safe returns. I have protected myself in case of disaster and even if i lost all my income now, i could survive very comfortable for a long, long time with no drop in my standard of living. You lived for the moment in the past and it cost you. A system is no good without having a good head and a cool head. Your emotional responses and descriptions of past run-ins with the law indicates an inability to keep cool under pressure. A system is fine on a winning streak, what happens on a bad streak. Only a cool disciplined head will survive that and you have admitted you lack discipline and everything you tell us about your life shows a lack of discipline hence why i believe you may ultimately fail and sadly you might ruin what could be a very good system. My systems are ok, not world beating by any means, but they give me a statistical edge and coupled with a bit of wisdom i turn over figures on the exchanges that make your paper trail look average. Your system may be better than some of mine, but i have a proven track record of having the bottle for it and even if anything ever went pear shaped i have my job and nixers to keep me going and even they provide more income that your paper trail, actually my main job does that all by itself. I have no sense of entitlement no one owes me anything, including the state. Your only income you have actually stated comes from litigation, gambling and social welfare. I don't know the details of your job, but saying your expertise does not make you employable in an industry makes me double think your statement about having a good education. Do you have a PHD in renaissance art or something? :)

    Seriously OP, start putting up real logs, not virtual logs and you will quieten the doubters including me. Its that easy.

    Another great post al of a sudden. These are the type of responses i hoped would come. I lived a reckless life in parts , it has been part of my character but i always knew i was being so. I tried to enjoy my success but i couldn't because i lost a brother to a brutal murder and the guilty party got away with it due to 30 witnesses keeping quiet. My point is not to depress, we are all adults but to give what plausible reason i had for my recklessness. After a decade i am finally coming to terms i feel that recklessness can be put to bed, having an equation i trust is also different. I needed the 18 weeks to paper trail to gain the belief in the equation, i always expected it to fall although i couldn't see that happening to point of total collapse, i wanted to work on it also, improve it. Another poster mentioned he had something that worked for 3 years before collapsing. I have studied many systems like that but this one avoids that with certain measures, all learned by experience. Being reckless in life can bring many lessons others will not learn. Can i keep my discipline through bad periods ? I have not proved this yet.


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 307 ✭✭CodyJarrett


    zarquon wrote: »
    Seriously OP, start putting up real logs, not virtual logs and you will quieten the doubters including me. Its that easy.

    Exactly.

    I had a mate who said that he would bet around €500 a week and at least five or six times a year would get seven or eight winners in a row and that that purple streak would make him enough money to easily cover his losses etc.

    So I said:

    "Well, then why not just stick only ever doing €500 bets when you can afford them on accumulators - if you always hit a streak, then one is bound to come up and you'll be a millionaire".

    He said:

    "But the average price of my winners is 6/4".

    I said:

    "Fine, then just stick to putting €500 on eight horse accumulators where the average price of the horses winning is 6/4 - that pays €1,000,000".

    Obviously he never did any of the above but if he (or anyone else) believed that they would inevitably hit an eight horse streak (as they always do) then that is what they would do, as hitting the million eventually would just be a matter of time, patience and perseverance.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,435 ✭✭✭areyawell


    Get a job you bum! or do a work placement or springboard course or back to education allowance instead of sitting on your arse all day!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,734 ✭✭✭zarquon


    looper333 wrote: »
    Being reckless in life can bring many lessons others will not learn. Can i keep my discipline through bad periods ? I have not proved this yet.

    Life is the greatest teacher of all, even if you fail with this next venture at least you will learn a lot and mature through the process. Sadly if you don't learn some money management skills though it may all be in vain and that is something that is hard to learn and takes a lot of dedication and wisdom


  • Registered Users Posts: 208 ✭✭looper333


    zarquon wrote: »
    Me too, i'd love to read a novel from the mind that brought us this thread. Novelist, Mathematical genius, trading expert, casanova pursued by women all over the world. I need to buy you a pint sometime and see the amazing person before me, don't worry though, i'll pick you up in my nice car as you don't have enough money for a bus fair. The gardai are always after you too apparently...........wait a second, you're Frank Abagnale Junior aren't you. I love your biography, catch me if you can. I must watch it again soon. Are you a pilot and a doctor too?

    If you and erk are serious about wanting to read my yet completed novel, than in itself is great motivation to take out of my venture into Boards.ie . It has been on the back burner for 4 months now. I write much better than i do on here btw,


  • Site Banned Posts: 385 ✭✭pontia


    how do you manage to write while wearing a jacket that buttons at the back ?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,184 ✭✭✭3ndahalfof6


    looper333 wrote: »
    If you and erk are serious about wanting to read my yet completed novel, than in itself is great motivation to take out of my venture into Boards.ie . It has been on the back burner for 4 months now. I write much better than i do on here btw,

    you don't live in a cabin in the woods by any chance.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 208 ✭✭looper333


    pontia wrote: »
    how do you manage to write while wearing a jacket that buttons at the back ?

    You deciphered my expertise , well done.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,298 ✭✭✭Duggys Housemate


    Zab wrote: »
    I gave a system which could make money and nobody has refuted it yet. They would need to work out how many football teams score 3 goals to win a match in the last quarter, and divide by the number of games per season across all leagues, and cups. It's far lower than the odds you get on exchanges.

    Is it though? I think the issues with your argument are an inadequate sample size (as per ceegee's post above), no concrete examples of what the odds are on exchanges in these circumstances, and a general underestimation of the market makers on the exchanges.

    Also, you would have to actually lay the bets in order to see how the market reacts. You may find that as soon as you lay a price you are immediately outbid by a market maker's bot. This is because their bots often won't outbid the rest of the market by too high a margin unless they need to compete with outside sources such as bookies.

    We're in agreement that it's possible to make money in this fashion from exchanges, I'm just not yet convinced on your particular example. The key difference between what you're arguing and what OP is arguing is that you're getting value from the bets themselves whereas OP claims he is getting value from the way he combines bets. In practice you also have to consider the fact that when you're starting out you'll be paying a higher commission than those you're competing against (the other market makers), which means given the same true odds they would be able to offer better odds than you while still profiting.

    I actually don't know about the odds. I was told the odds by my friend. In terms of stats he said 100s to 1 for a team to win if 2-0 down with a quarter to go. I jjust looked at the European and world cup and no team came back from 2-0 at all; however that's a 100 or so games, not a few hundred. I will take a look at the premiership later. He told me this system because he didn't use it, as he had better ones. The point is to demo you just need to be better at the maths than the average punter.

    As for horse racing, too many variables. It's not one on one like football or tennis, it also depends on the jockey, the other horses, the ground. And with national hunt it becomes even more precarious. Betting on anything where a horse could fall is mugs game. All systems bet on favourites at low odds.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,184 ✭✭✭3ndahalfof6


    Hey looper333, will your format,equation,database adapt to any type of animal racing, greyhounds being one, there are many more,

    it is the sign of a truly great system if it can be adapted to other sports.

    on a side note, can I be in your book.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,435 ✭✭✭areyawell


    Attention seeker, I bet this guy is like 50 years old with nothing better to do than troll. What is your novel about?


  • Registered Users Posts: 159 ✭✭BlimpyBoy


    looper333 wrote: »
    pontia wrote: »
    fair play to people who choose a 9 to 5 job,thats their choice ? what sort of crap is that ? its not a choice ,its a job.why should taxpayers support your deluded schemes,you deserve the 188e you get ? you contribute nothing,your a fraud

    All the 188 goes straight back into system anyhow, take away all the dole and you take away all that money which would go to landlords, companys that deal in internet, electricity... supermarkets, corner shops. my 188 is keeping them in their jobs. I choose to live the only life i have as free as i can from hate, greed and horrible people that generally make up a large majority on this island. I encourage them all to work 9 to 5 if they can be happy and respectful as they do, most of them are not though and if that kind of work turns them that way then i am best to avoid that. After all everything they work for can be taken off them in a flash by people who control their destiny. It is smart not to be caught in that trap. I have made great money before and i regularly tipped taxi drivers 20 or 30 euros a time and i bought many people drinks, food... a lot of them wouldn't return the favor. I am owed compensation from the state for their actions but i will never see it, in the meantime all these pepple in debt who work around the clock have to pay taxers for my dole but a lot more for bankers bonuses. I tried warning them all 15 years ago so my conscience is clear. If i lose money gambling then i keep the people working there in a job also, they should be grateful. When i get back on my feet again i will again give back more than i have ever taken, if my equation goes wrong, which it won't as far as overall average , if it did though then i will keep collecting the dole i deserve , if they stop it i will either steal it or starve... good job i worked very hard trying to figure out an alternative being that of an equation those in Paddy tower would be happy using.. at least i didn't spend it drinking or taking drugs.. God rewards those with greater intentions of good no matter how confusing they may be to the weaker minds out there who only know how to spread hate and bile to cover up their own shortcomings.

    It's God giving you the tips on the horses, isn't it looper? There's no equation.

    He does be busy on Sundays so he probably wouldn't be able to give you the Sunday tips most weeks. It all makes sense now!


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,268 ✭✭✭BunShopVoyeur


    looper333 wrote: »
    Fûck this. Troll.

    I am no Troll, i was a bit of a looker in my day, i had some beautiful woman chasing me , even when i was skint... woman from every part of the world... i would imagine there are quite a few trolls hanging around these forums mind. I am only here because i am skint... when i have money coming in again i wouldn't be so sad to be hanging around here.

    Shut up. Troll fail.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,184 ✭✭✭3ndahalfof6


    areyawell wrote: »
    Attention seeker, I bet this guy is like 50 years old with nothing better to do than troll. What is your novel about?

    I was thinking more like 49.


  • Registered Users Posts: 208 ✭✭looper333


    BlimpyBoy wrote: »
    It's God giving you the tips on the horses, isn't it looper? There's no equation.

    He does be busy on Sundays so he probably wouldn't be able to give you the Sunday tips most weeks. It all makes sense now!


    It has been a very poor day so far today , still time for it to recover. I don't mind if people see the Sunday aspect as ridiculous, there are definite difference to a Sunday meeting than any other day. My equation is consistently proving that theory to myself, nobody is more surprised than me. So far today -140


  • Registered Users Posts: 208 ✭✭looper333


    areyawell wrote: »
    Attention seeker, I bet this guy is like 50 years old with nothing better to do than troll. What is your novel about?

    Not quite that old yet. Having read the definition of troll i have to say i am still confused. I don't use forums much at all. Everything i wrote is true, warts and all, it is just the reality of life.Why on earth would i want to bring attention to my current financial woes, i was just being honest and looking for some input on having such great results over 18 weeks. I do write and had a promising career in that field ahead of me quite young. I went a different direction but have always been planning a novel. I am only interested in releasing something i think is actually good. You will have to read it when i do finish it. I promise never to claim dole again after that.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,533 ✭✭✭the keen edge


    Looper, specifically, what type of employment paid you €2000 per week?

    Why is that work unavailable to you now?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,184 ✭✭✭3ndahalfof6


    Looper, specifically, what type of employment paid you €2000 per week?

    Why is that work unavailable to you now?

    male prostitute, his cock fell off.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,435 ✭✭✭areyawell


    looper333 wrote: »
    It has been a very poor day so far today , still time for it to recover. I don't mind if people see the Sunday aspect as ridiculous, there are definite difference to a Sunday meeting than any other day. My equation is consistently proving that theory to myself, nobody is more surprised than me. So far today -140

    See like I said in an earlier post that you are a problem gambler. It doesnt matter if you bet on a Sunday. Your mind tricked you into thinking that your system works and somehow think that Sunday is different. Go back writing books in your padded cell!


  • Registered Users Posts: 208 ✭✭looper333


    Looper, specifically, what type of employment paid you €2000 per week?

    Why is that work unavailable to you now?

    PR and Marketing within my own business with a large team is how it started but the profit rolled in after relocation leading into more into the PR side. I would have risen another level but the self destruct button was well and truly pressed, perhaps a good decision in the long run.


  • Registered Users Posts: 208 ✭✭looper333


    areyawell wrote: »
    See like I said in an earlier post that you are a problem gambler. It doesnt matter if you bet on a Sunday. Your mind tricked you into thinking that your system works and somehow think that Sunday is different. Go back writing books in your padded cell!

    Like i have posted 4 or 5 times but people just don't process. There are differences in Sunday but i am still analyzing. This theory is being proved so far. Even in full weeks including Sundays the average profits per day are only slightly below taking the Sunday factor out. 39 with Sundays 41 without Sundays. If i can save myself a day of rest i will.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,062 ✭✭✭al28283


    why are you spending your time trying to convince people this'll work? If you're ignoring eviction notices you should probably spend your time making sure this'll work


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,463 ✭✭✭✭BorneTobyWilde


    looper333 wrote: »
    Like i have posted 4 or 5 times but people just don't process. There are differences in Sunday but i am still analyzing. This theory is being proved so far. Even in full weeks including Sundays the average profits per day are only slightly below taking the Sunday factor out. 39 with Sundays 41 without Sundays. If i can save myself a day of rest i will.

    What about flat racing and jump racing, I noticed huge difference when i was using system, Could it be you made good profit on flat, and lose it all on jumps,


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 827 ✭✭✭WumBuster


    zarquon wrote: »
    I reread the OP and noticed he spends 42 hours per week on average"studying" the form or 36 if he takes sunday off. I have to say that based on his results he would be better off on minimum wage on average. The results are terrible for those level of hours. I cant believe he criticises those who put similar hours into their jobs as sheep considering that those sheep are making more per hour than he is. The irony seems to be lost on him and actually displays a level of naiveity and immaturity that would lead me to advise him against gambling where such personality weakness will be severely punished. I would wager his gambling history is atrocious based on those weaknesses and on each streak he thought he was on to a sure thing only to lose the run of himself

    I said it before on this thread but the gambling industry is just one big scam, imo. Just look at the marketing campaigns its like'' Look! Come inside and make an easy fortune! Look at all the great odds, we're giving on this or that, you'd be mad not to be taking up this kind of offer'' BS. They prey on gullible people like the op who take the bait and think they can become millionaires. Its just no better than a get rich quick scheme where people read the headlines but not the small print. Even for the likes of yourself who say they have made money, its such a volatile and precarious business to be in, there is no guarantees you'll be in the same position tomorrow. Id say, if you can make any money from gambling just take it out and do something more intelligent with it. The odds are just not in your favour. Eventually, one way or another you WILL go broke. Its a mathematical certainty.


  • Registered Users Posts: 208 ✭✭looper333


    What about flat racing and jump racing, I noticed huge difference when i was using system, Could it be you made good profit on flat, and lose it all on jumps,

    It had crossed my mind, only time will tell. Some secondary factors may be affected but i think it should work out in same consistent basis.


  • Registered Users Posts: 208 ✭✭looper333


    al28283 wrote: »
    why are you spending your time trying to convince people this'll work? If you're ignoring eviction notices you should probably spend your time making sure this'll work

    I am working on it now as i read posts. If anything talking to you lot is great prep for when i go into live play on Tuesday.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,033 ✭✭✭✭bnt


    However exchanges are totally different to bookies. For one thing they don't really share information. An individual gambler on BetFair betting for his team is not talking to other "bookies", nor is he spreading information by offloading bets. Thats what effects the normal bookie market, and it is not happening on BetFair. Prices can, therefore, be easily divorced from reality.
    I do get the difference, but my wider point still stands. Betfair imposes commission and other charges, so they're always ahead and so their markets are not "zero sum". There's always someone on the other side of the bet who may know more than you: this is the asymmetric information problem. Who is that? Individuals? Punters? Suckers? Paddy Power? Are you always going to be the one with the edge? This sense of entitlement is (in my opinion) the major risk: the assumption that you have the edge, that your system is better than their system - that the other Punters are cash cows for the milking.

    PS: Betfair appointed a new chief executive last year: hired from Paddy Power. Coincidence? Both companies pay their executives very well ... :cool:

    Death has this much to be said for it:
    You don’t have to get out of bed for it.
    Wherever you happen to be
    They bring it to you—free.

    — Kingsley Amis



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,763 ✭✭✭Sheeps


    Never done this before but know a pritty good gambeling bet for the roulett tables

    Pick a colour and always put on that colour (i will say red for here)

    Step 1: Start by putting €2 on red.
    If you win. Grand. go go back to step 1. If you loose go on to step 2.

    Step 2: Put €4 on red.
    If you win. Grand. go go back to step 1. If you loose go on to step 3.

    Step 3: Put €8 on red
    If you win. Grand. go go back to step 1. If you loose go on to step 4.

    And continue like this if you keep on loosing. double your previouse bet each time. (reason for this is (take step 3) you have lost €6 so far so to come out on top you bet €8

    Each round (by round i mean as many bets as it takes to win) will earn you €2. The chances of the ball landing on red is 50/50 (well not quite. there is one green slot but i am ignoring that for this)

    There is more maths behind this but i will not bore anyone with it.

    I have never done this. I have no interest in gambeling. I would like to try it though just to see if it works. (yes i know the gains are small but if you stick to the system and double you bet everytime you loose and go back to the starting bet everytime you win you have to come up on top. The maths is 100% and the maths is simple.

    I dont know your system for whatever you are doing but it is way to complicated to work. Pay you bills and dont throw your money away

    I've done this before and while it mitigates your risk to losing every time, the odds are still in favour of the house over long runs due to the number 0 slot that you conveniently chose to ignore. I've made a good bit of money banking winnings, but if you play long enough you will always lose.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,435 ✭✭✭areyawell


    I have a system that will make me a millionaire by the end of the premier league season. I have no proof. I just cant bet on any soccer matches on Sunday though. For some reason the results are different on a Sunday. I have no proof, just take my word for it. I pity all of ye working your 9 to 5 and I'm far more superior getting my dole every week. I'm also writing a novel that will be bigger than the Harry Potter series. J.K Rowling also robbed that idea off me. I'm currently in talk with publishers about my book. I also owned a company that I was making 2000 euro a week from. I cant pay my electricity and rent money now though. I refuse to pay it cause I am better than the arrogant ignorant people in Ireland. I pity all ye working 9 to 5 when I have a fool proof system to beat the bookies. I'm currently up 1 million in play money but I wouldn't chance real money with it cause I'm just that cool. I also should be working for the government because I'm a mathematical genious and could solve all the fraud in the country(previous posts in another forum) but the government are so idiotic they wont hire me. 6 months Later - I am now currently homeless, gambling,novel didnt work out


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 827 ✭✭✭WumBuster


    bnt wrote: »
    I do get the difference, but my wider point still stands. Betfair imposes commission and other charges, so they're always ahead and so their markets are not "zero sum". There's always someone on the other side of the bet who may know more than you: this is the asymmetric information problem. Who is that? Individuals? Punters? Suckers? Paddy Power? Are you always going to be the one with the edge? This sense of entitlement is (in my opinion) the major risk: the assumption that you have the edge, that your system is better than their system - that the other Punters are cash cows for the milking.

    PS: Betfair appointed a new chief executive last year: hired from Paddy Power. Coincidence? Both companies pay their executives very well ... :cool:

    Tbh, I agree. The majority of people on those exchange sites are not people with information deficits on the sports their betting on. Its about supply and demand and the market drives the price. The only way you can have a real advantage over other punters if you know something about the event in question that the rest of the punters dont know. E.g Your brother's a jockey/horse trainer, your uncle is a physio at man utd and he just rang you up to tell you Rooney wont be starting. Unless you have those kind of inside contacts, you are no better off than the rest of the punters.


  • Registered Users Posts: 208 ✭✭looper333


    areyawell wrote: »
    I have a system that will make me a millionaire by the end of the premier league season. I have no proof. I just cant bet on any soccer matches on Sunday though. For some reason the results are different on a Sunday. I have no proof, just take my word for it. I pity all of ye working your 9 to 5 and I'm far more superior getting my dole every week. I'm also writing a novel that will be bigger than the Harry Potter series. J.K Rowling also robbed that idea off me. I'm currently in talk with publishers about my book. I also owned a company that I was making 2000 euro a week from. I cant pay my electricity and rent money now though. I refuse to pay it cause I am better than the arrogant ignorant people in Ireland. I pity all ye working 9 to 5 when I have a fool proof system to beat the bookies. I'm currently up 1 million in play money but I wouldn't chance real money with it cause I'm just that cool. I also should be working for the government because I'm a mathematical genious and could solve all the fraud in the country(previous posts in another forum) but the government are so idiotic they wont hire me. 6 months Later - I am now currently homeless, gambling,novel didnt work out

    Hand/finger printing machines solve everything, the tech is available.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,533 ✭✭✭the keen edge


    looper333 wrote: »
    PR and Marketing within my own business with a large team is how it started but the profit rolled in after relocation leading into more into the PR side. I would have risen another level but the self destruct button was well and truly pressed, perhaps a good decision in the long run.

    Looper, almost 400 posts in to this thread and I cant yet figure out what your goals are with this system.

    Presumably financial gain is the obvious motivation behind someone spending years studying and tweaking and then following a gambling strategy; however you say you were at your happiest in life when you were homeless; you regard ruining your chance at career progression as a good thing.

    Regardless of the effectiveness, or not, of your system you really need to step back and take a look at the bigger picture, you may have other issues to resolve in your life.

    IMHO the screaming headline here is you aren't in a position financially, emotionally or otherwise to gamble the position in life that you hold.
    Stand back, take a time-out and build a solid footing for yourself and kick on from there.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,184 ✭✭✭3ndahalfof6


    areyawell wrote: »
    I have a system that will make me a millionaire by the end of the premier league season. I have no proof. I just cant bet on any soccer matches on Sunday though. For some reason the results are different on a Sunday. I have no proof, just take my word for it. I pity all of ye working your 9 to 5 and I'm far more superior getting my dole every week. I'm also writing a novel that will be bigger than the Harry Potter series. J.K Rowling also robbed that idea off me. I'm currently in talk with publishers about my book. I also owned a company that I was making 2000 euro a week from. I cant pay my electricity and rent money now though. I refuse to pay it cause I am better than the arrogant ignorant people in Ireland. I pity all ye working 9 to 5 when I have a fool proof system to beat the bookies. I'm currently up 1 million in play money but I wouldn't chance real money with it cause I'm just that cool. I also should be working for the government because I'm a mathematical genious and could solve all the fraud in the country(previous posts in another forum) but the government are so idiotic they wont hire me. 6 months Later - I am now currently homeless, gambling,novel didnt work out

    you sound just like looper333, I hope the mods are checking this out I think he might have 2 accounts, but it just could be coincidence.


  • Registered Users Posts: 208 ✭✭looper333


    Looper, almost 400 posts in to this thread and I cant yet figure out what your goals are with this system.

    Presumably financial gain is the obvious motivation behind someone spending years studying and tweaking and then following a gambling strategy; however you say you were at your happiest in life when you were homeless; you regard ruining your chance at career progression as a good thing.

    Regardless of the effectiveness, or not, of your system you really need to step back and take a look at the bigger picture, you may have other issues to resolve in your life.

    IMHO the screaming headline here is you aren't in a position financially, emotionally or otherwise to gamble the position in life that you hold.
    Stand back, take a time-out and build a solid footing for yourself and kick on from there.


    My goal is to have a nice sideline so i can live, save a little and sort out a few responsibilities. Along with affording a few breaks away as i love to travel and get great inspiration when i do. All this is to help in the final completion of my novel which has always been my goal from before i ever made 2k a week and the likes.
    I say it could prove a good thing in time that i got out of my potential good career because it was something i got into by accident and i was not comfortable with it. I like success and i want to succeed, success for me is to make lots of money but we very happy in my work and for that work to have some lasting meaning to it. I have taken a big step back these last few years and i know this is the time


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,435 ✭✭✭areyawell


    looper333 wrote: »
    Hand/finger printing machines solve everything, the tech is available.

    Do you not think the government have not thought about this already. Plenty of places have it such as my local gym and where I work.

    http://colmkeaveney.blogspot.ie/2011/02/biometrics-to-curb-welfare-fraud.html


  • Registered Users Posts: 65 ✭✭macscoob


    this i presume is you working off betfair? if you have a good strageity then you should sell it that way you will make lots of money, there are lots of different ones out there. and its not gambling its trading


  • Registered Users Posts: 208 ✭✭looper333


    areyawell wrote: »
    Do you not think the government have not thought about this already. Plenty of places have it such as my local gym and where I work.

    http://colmkeaveney.blogspot.ie/2011/02/biometrics-to-curb-welfare-fraud.html

    Good stuff, i actually know this guy vaguely. I had this idea 3a few years ago, i never said it wasn't out there . It has been available for quite some time. Are you from Galway ?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 208 ✭✭looper333


    macscoob wrote: »
    this i presume is you working off betfair? if you have a good strageity then you should sell it that way you will make lots of money, there are lots of different ones out there. and its not gambling its trading

    None of them systems out there being sold work. You would have to be mad to buy a system over the net.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,435 ✭✭✭areyawell


    Nope from Laois


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 827 ✭✭✭WumBuster


    looper333 wrote: »
    None of them systems out there being sold work. You would have to be mad to buy a system over the net.

    So none of the other systems out there work, but yours does?


  • Registered Users Posts: 208 ✭✭looper333


    WumBuster wrote: »
    So none of the other systems out there work, but yours does?

    I am not selling mine. Why would anybody sell a consistent winning system ?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,184 ✭✭✭3ndahalfof6


    looper333 wrote: »
    I am not selling mine. Why would anybody sell a consistent winning system ?

    now thats just silly, you would not sell it for any amount?


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