August 2012 Boards forecast contest

traecy1

15.0....25.1....3.4....100...90....19.5/0.5mm

snowstreams

IMT 15.5 MAX 25 MIN 3.1 PRC 105 SUN 101 18.1/3.8

Tae laidir

14.9 .... 25.0 .... 1.6 .... 115 .... 97 .... 16.6/4.1

nilhg

15.7 .... 26.8 .... 3 .... 87 .... 108 .... 20.8/0

waterways

14.8 .... 24.1 .... 4.3 .... 139 .... 93 .... 15.4/0.6

Lumi

15.3 .... 25.9 .... 2.3 .... 125 .... 89 .... 16.5/2.22

kindredspirit

15.3 ... 25 ... 3.5 ... 95 ... 90 ... 17.0/0.0

SeaFields

14.5 .... 25.0 .... 4.5 .... 130 .... 60 .... 18.5/0.0

MiNdGaM3

15.4 .... 23.9 .... 1.9 .... 105 .... 99 .... 16.8/2.0

NIALL D

15.3 .... 26.1 .... 3.8 .... 125 .... 67 .... 19.5/1.0

Joe Public

15.4 .... 29.9 .... 4.9 .... 89 .... 129 .... 18.9/0

M.T. Cranium

Entries are still welcome today (Thursday) and tomorrow, cut off is 0300h Saturday. These are the on-time entries, from now on, slight penalties apply to higher scores (see post #1 for details on that).

August forecast contest entries
____________________________________________

FORECASTER ......... IMT ... MAX ... MIN ... PRC ... SUN ... Knock-11th
______________________________________________________________


nilhg .................... 15.7 ... 26.8 ... 3.0 ... 087 ... 108 ... 20.8..0.0
Hammer Archer ...... 15.6 ... 24.1 ... 4.2 ... 110 ... 085 ... 18.8..1.2
talkabout ............. 15.6 ... 25.9 ... 4.7 ... 095 ... 105 ... 18.3..0.0
snowstreams ......... 15.5 ... 25.0 ... 3.1 ... 105 ... 101 ... 18.1..3.8
Joe Public ............. 15.4 ... 29.9 ... 4.9 ... 089 ... 129 ... 18.9..0.0
MiNdGaM3 ............ 15.4 ... 23.9 ... 1.9 ... 105 ... 099 ... 16.8..2.0
DOCARCH ............. 15.4 ... 26.2 ... 3.9 ... 110 ... 095 ... 18.6..0.8
Iancar29 .............. 15.4 ... 25.8 ... 4.8 ... 095 ... 105 ... 21.0..1.0
NIALL D ............... 15.3 ... 26.1 ... 3.8 ... 125 ... 067 ... 19.5..1.0
kindredspirit ......... 15.3 ... 25.0 ... 3.5 ... 095 ... 090 ... 17.0..0.0
Lumi ................... 15.3 ... 25.9 ... 2.3 ... 125 ... 089 ... 16.5..2.2
Rickylovesuall ...... 15.3 ... 25.5 ... 4.0 ... 160 ... 080 ... 19.9..2.0
Bsal ................... 15.2 ... 22.1 ... 3.7 ... 127 ... 097 ... 18.1..3.0
H2UMrsRobinson ... 15.2 ... 23.1 ... 7.2 ... 115 ... 087 ... 18.5..6.0
Gonzo ................ 15.2 ... 23.6 ... 3.2 ... 159 ... 083 ... 16.8..4.3
jambofc .............. 15.2 ... 24.9 ... 5.5 ... 148 ... 085 ... 18.2..3.3
Sponge Bob ......... 15.1 ... 24.1 ... 3.1 ... 121 ... 088 ... 16.9..0.1
dacogawa ........... 15.1 ... 24.4 ... 3.8 ... 140 ... 090 ... 16.2..0.3
Danno ................ 15.1 ... 24.9 .. -0.1 ... 165 ... 105 ... 15.7.14.3
jd ...................... 15.0 ... 24.1 ... 2.7 ... 129 ... 094 ... 18.8..3.0

Con Sensus ......... 15.0 ... 24.9 ... 3.7 ... 125 ... 090 ... 17.9..2.0

traecy1 .............. 15.0 ... 25.1 ... 3.4 ... 100 ... 090 ... 19.5..0.5
dasa29 ............... 15.0 ... 28.5 ... 2.5 ... 125 ... 090 ... 17.0..4.0
Harps ................. 15.0 ... 26.5 ... 3.9 ... 140 ... 090 ... 19.1..1.1
K_1 ................... 15.0 ... 24.5 ... 3.5 ... 120 ... 090 ... 18.0..0.0
Strasser ............. 15.0 ... 24.3 ... 4.5 ... 100 ... 100 ... 16.3..5.0
rameire ............... 15.0 ... 24.6 ... 4.5 ... 125 ... 085 ... 17.6..2.1
mickger844posts .. 14.9 ... 24.7 ... 4.3 ... 150 ... 075 ... 16.8..4.2
Tae laidir ............ 14.9 ... 25.0 ... 1.6 ... 115 ... 097 ... 16.6..4.1
delw .................. 14.9 ... 25.4 ... 3.7 ... 098 ... 093 ... 17.3..4.5
homolumo ........... 14.9 ... 24.9 ... 3.9 ... 159 ... 089 ... 18.9..0.9
waterways .......... 14.8 ... 24.1 ... 4.3 ... 139 ... 093 ... 15.4..0.6
okla ................... 14.8 ... 25.3 ... 5.3 ... 120 ... 090 ... 16.6..0.0
John mac ............ 14.8 ... 25.6 ... 5.1 ... 120 ... 102 ... 18.6..5.6
lostinashford ........14.6 ... 21.4 ... 3.2 ... 127 ... 087 ... 18.7..4.0
cherryghost ........ 14.5 ... 25.6 ... 3.0 ... 130 ... 090 ... 18.4..0.5
SeaFields ............ 14.5 ... 25.0 ... 4.5 ... 130 ... 060 ... 18.5..0.0
dexter647 ........... 14.5 ... 26.2 ... 2.9 ... 115 ... 081 ... 17.6..1.3
Jerry Seinfeld ...... 14.5 ... 24.3 ... 2.7 ... 130 ... 090 ... 15.8..3.0
M.T. Cranium ...... 14.2 ... 23.3 ... 1.8 ... 179 ... 066 ... 15.5..3.5
Redsunset .......... 14.0 ... 21.5 ... 2.8 ... 200 ... 079 ... 16.8.12.0
Rebelbrowser* .... 14.0 ... 25.9 ... 4.2 ... 079 ... 122 ... 20.3..0.0
pauldry .............. 13.9 ... 24.4 ... 3.7 ... 178 ... 089 ... 15.1..3.6

____________________________________________________

Con Sensus may change with later entries.
* late entry

Rebelbrowser

14.0 ..... 25.9 ...... 4.2 ....... 79 ....... 122 ...... 20.3 .... 0

Sponge Bob

I suspect NilhG may be right back on form this month. We should certainly know a lot more by Saturday the 11th ...most especially if he walks off with the max marks.

200motels

I'm very late with my entry as I was not able to access a PC or Mobile for the past week. Here's my entry for what it's worth.

14.8....23.9....3.6....129....89....19.6....5mm

M.T. Cranium

Will let you know later what if anything can be done about that entry, but in any case the annual contest is based on ten best scores out of twelve so missing one month isn't a huge blow, you've still got one score to discard instead of two. So if this month would be a low score anyway, nothing much changes. If I figure that your score doesn't affect the larger scale outcome of the contest, I might allow one but you would be playing off a huge penalty, sort of like a Canadian football team or something.

Now, speaking of huge penalties, the first week of August turned out like this:

IMT was 14.7 C or about a degree below the normal for the week. That should be heading up for a few days now.

The rainfall was quite variable around the country, apparently Malin Head stayed almost dry and Shannon was also quite dry, while the southeast got into heavier rainfalls as did some other places, overall, the average was about 139%.

Sunshine is always an estimate now that Valentia keeps a secret record that only appears in the MS. If I assume Valentia was similar to Shannon-Cork average then we're sitting at 80% of average. This is what I will assume in the estimates unless I have a different guess from the actual weather patterns.

Well, back to watching our Olympic teams wasting our tax money (but we don't shoot them if they lose, so I guess this is an enlightened nation).

I can't imagine the ego boost I would feel, if I were among the world's top hundred underwater tennis players, or whatever this sport is I am watching.

pauldry

think met eireann data for yesterday 10th August 2012 is wrong!

also 9th August may be too.

Does that mean we cant even forecast the temperature for yesterday anymore? eek

Joe Public

pauldry wrote: »

think met eireann data for yesterday 10th August 2012 is wrong!

also 9th August may be too.

Does that mean we cant even forecast the temperature for yesterday anymore? eek

I'm trying to figure where they pulled "yesterday's" data from.

Joe Public

Correct "yesterday's" up now.

pauldry

maybe they pulled "yesterday" from 2011. Dunno.

In any case im screwed for this months contest

M.T. Cranium

Here was the weather for yesterday. Partly cloudy with showers. This trough in the North Sea may have been here yesterday and it could have dropped some showers. Now looking at the five day, these lows over Sweden, Russia and the Arctic Ocean could have been moving across here just about every day and so it may well have been wet. Beyond that, of course, is mere speculation, but this big high over Greenland might have been here a week to ten days ago, which is why we're saying it might have been quite cold then.

Sponge Bob

Claremorris appears to have made 21.3c and no rainfall _yet_

pauldry

Knock made 23.2c no rainfall

M.T. Cranium

It's amazing how often I manage to find a bonus question that stumps the field. Last month one contestant was below the actual temperature and everyone else above it. This month clearly everyone is below. I suppose Knock is a relatively cool location which gets reversed only in this wind direction. And the guidance was evidently not very good 12 days ago, not sure what it looked like on "late" day but in any case, well done to Iancar, nilhg and Rebelbrowser for at least having a clue about the strength or perhaps duration more likely of the warm spell. Won't comment on the rainfall until the day's total is confirmed (at zero or perhaps a trace looking at the 2300h radar).

Will score rain and temp separately for half each but most people will do well or poorly on both as they tend to be inversely correlated. I have the feeling that I will be tossing this month out of the car on the trip to December.

John mac

its chucking it down at the moment (has been for 30 mins or so )so I recon its going to be above 0 :pac:

M.T. Cranium

Okay, fair enough, the final figures seem to be in now, 22.2 and 1.8 mms rain all of which must have fallen in the last hour of the day (I believe the day actually runs 0z to 0z which may explain it, that being 0100 to 0100 IST).

Whatever, I will be generous to those who predicted no rain since that was the case for almost the entire day, without penalizing those who got the amount right. Wait and see how generous, a few bribes wouldn't hurt.

Now we're going to that most unusual of summer patterns, warm and wet.

What next? It has been a roller coaster ride this year.

M.T. Cranium

Report on week two ... 8th to 14th

The reports were incomplete but I have estimated as follows ...

A warm week near 17.9 C brought the IMT up to 16.3 C for the month.

A rather dry week around 65% of average rainfall :eek: balanced the first week and left the average at 102% which after today will be back up around 110-115 per cent.

Sunshine data were very sketchy but I assume the week pushed above normal and perhaps balanced the first week's rather dull 80% so we'll assume that we are close to normal at this point, perhaps I will get more data to revise that.

On the whole, then, despite a lot of variations the month so far has been just a bit warmer than average and probably near normal in other elements, with today's rather abnormal masquerade of a tropical storm.

pauldry

New low for August of 5.3c in Claremorris

High is 26.5c in Shannon on August 10th

Finishing IMT for August will prob be 15.5 to 16 range

Rainfall will be around 150%

Sunshine near Normal

M.T. Cranium

Due to the weekend, I won't have official monthly stats until Monday, but can confirm that the IMT was 15.7 C.

M.T. Cranium

Final values for August:

1. The IMT was 15.7(4) which was equal to our highest prediction (nilhg).

2. The monthly max was 26.5 at Shannon on the 10th.

3. The monthly min was 5.6 at Mount Dillon on the 26th.

4. Rainfall was 136% of normal -- it turned out about normal in some regions mostly west coast and as high as 225% at Johnstown Castle.

5. Sunshine came in at 101% barely making this a rare "triple" for above normal values in the three elements.

6. As already mentioned the bonus question for Knock (11th) was 22.2 C and 1.8 mm of rain all of which fell in hour 24. :mad: (if you said zero)

Scoring to follow ...