Official Free Money Betting Thread 2012/2013 Mark II Redemption

dropkickrugby

ANXIOUS wrote: »

Just got on Glasgow -14 at a massive 2/1.

Have you been hanging around outside gamblers anonymous for dyslexics (GAD) again?

dropkickrugby

robbie1977 wrote: »

I honestly had'nt seen your post on DKR before now but you'd think I copied your post after reading it. :eek:

great minds RObbie and all that Lets hope we look like geniuses come 930 tonight haha

Juwwi

Sky bet are stand out on most players in the 1st tryscorers market

Lamont is only 15/2 with PP but 11/1 with them
Van Der Merve is 13/2 PP and 8/1 with them

Ive done Sean Lamont 11/1 1st and 7/4 anytime.skybet

and Van Der Merve anytime 5/4 with PP

dropkickrugby

Ill be amazed, as mentioned, if DTH doesnt get at least one. PP have him as tight as 11/2 for 2 or more so they're expecting at least one too it seems

duckysauce

robbie1977 wrote: »

Sky bet are stand out on most players in the 1st tryscorers market

Lamont is only 15/2 with PP but 11/1 with them
Van Der Merve is 13/2 PP and 8/1 with them

Ive done Sean Lamont 11/1 1st and 7/4 anytime.skybet

and Van Der Merve anytime 5/4 with PP

nice on lamont

dropkickrugby

WAHOO ROBBIE!! You're one jammy get haha - chargedown and a diving pass out to the right and there's big sean dodging work on the right :-)

well played sir!

Juwwi

Thanks lads :D

dropkickrugby

minor fly in the ointment there with a good connacht try.

dropkickrugby

odd call there by rolland. Gives offside against Glasgow when three seconds previous he told the conncht 9 to use it, and he had his hands on the ball, AND the glasgow man never touche the nine.

Juwwi

I'd be happy with the -13 at this stage.

The -28 was looking good at 15-0 aswell.:(

dropkickrugby

well, i slightly feared complacency and thats what we have here. Id still expect them to beat the cap but ill be very surprised if if we get over 28. Theyre treating this liek a training game.

dropkickrugby

credit to connacht too, playing like men possessed

dropkickrugby

dth gets two.

squeaky bum time. One more glasgow score needed for the cap- will they go after it with the bonus secured...

dropkickrugby

disappointing night from glasgow eh. Combination of things- they were a bit lax, it rained ( which I wasnt expecting nor were bbc weather) and COnnacht playing for their lives. Great display by connacht, some good looking youth coming through.

DTH, George North (ps, that was a try that should never have been given by the Scarlets tmo. If you missed that one, get a look lads) and Londwon welsh made up for the loss anyhow so happy i suppose.

Juwwi

Very disapointing they did'nt cover the handicap.

If they played next week I'd take -13 again.

its_phil

Hated the result there for Connacht, but with the All Ireland this weekend drinking money was needed and 2 or more tries with DTH @ 9/2 was too tempting.

Feel like I cheated on my team, but it felt so good.

Also took Connacht over 12.5 @ 5/6 so maybe that can show I'm still loyal! :P

dropkickrugby

excellent Phil. Who stung you with 9/2? It was 11/2 in powers

its_phil

dropkickrugby wrote: »

excellent Phil. Who stung you with 9/2? It was 11/2 in powers

Paddy Power it was. Got it an hour or less before the game.

thomond2006

1 unit on USAP +7 away to Stade Francais. USAP have a strong team out while Stade are missing a lot of players. They're also playing De Malmanche, normally a hooker, at loosehead prop.

USAP will be buoyed by their big win over Toulouse last weekend, while Paris are in somewhat of a crisis.

dropkickrugby

I'd back the renford rejects against stade francais right now Thomond :-)

dropkickrugby

anyone else fancy QUins today v Tigers? +7 is a big start

dropkickrugby

Northampton stop playing after hitting the bonus point and go from 30 points ahead to winning by just six. Dismal stuff!

thomond2006

Just a note for next week, Toulon are set to rest a glut of first choice players for next weekend's trip to Toulouse. There might be value in taking Toulouse on the handicap before teams/preliminary squads are released. Toulon are essentially waving the white flag and not targeting this game.

They have done something similar for a while and been beaten 33-12 and 44-5 in the last two fixtures.

Rugby Club Toulonnais - Officiel (Facebook page) wrote:

‎12 joueurs des quinze titulaires cet après-midi seront en vacances la semaine prochaine et ne participeront donc pas au choc de la 7e journée du Top 14 à Toulouse !
Voici la liste des joueurs qui seront au repos : Sheridan, Orioli, Hayman, Botha, Suta, Masoe, Van Niekerk, S. Armitage, Wilkinson, Mermoz, Giteau, Palisson et Martin.

Roughly translates to:
12 of this afternoon's 15 starters will be on holidays next week and will therefore not participate in the 7th weekend fixture away to Toulouse.
Here are the list of players who will be rested: Sheridan, Orioli, Hayman, Botha, Suta, Masoe, Van Niekerk, S. Armitage, Wilkinson, Mermoz, Giteau, Palisson et Martin.

Best side I can come with:
Jenkins, Bruno, Chilachava, Kennedy, Shaw, Gunther, Munoz, ?
Durand, Michalak, Smith, Basteraud, Messina, Lapeyre, D Armitage

On a non betting note, it's a shame Toulon will do this, since a match between 2 full sides would have been great to watch.

Now the above selection is not poor by any means, but certainly a distance off their best side.

4PP

thomond2006 wrote: »

Roughly translates to:

"Got to give the lads some time off so that they can spend their money in the local economy instead of chancing their arm against a rugby team which would no doubt show them up to be the chancers they are!".

Nuff said

dropkickrugby

4pp. were you viotated in the toulon dressing room at some point in your life?:D

thomond2006

dropkickrugby wrote: »

4pp. were you viotated in the toulon dressing room at some point in your life?:D

He's jealous.

4PP

dropkickrugby wrote: »

4pp. were you viotated in the toulon dressing room at some point in your life?:D

Sorry, I speak but English or French. No idea what that word means.

Mind you I do know that Toulon are heading for a fall, no titles this year.

Btw its "4PP" to you

4PP

thomond2006 wrote: »

He's jealous.

He's young & innocent, so I can't give out to him, God love him.

4PP

Not a stream but a live score link for this evenings games. I think thats allowed?

http://www.rugbyrama.fr/

I'm on

ST -4 10/11
CO +14 10/11 :mad:
SM evens
USAP +7 10/11
MHRC +3.5 4/5
BO +8 10/11

thomond2006

3 units on Munster -16 vs Dragons.

4PP

thomond2006 wrote: »

Just a note for next week, Toulon are set to rest a glut of first choice players for next weekend's trip to Toulouse.

18 players according to Bernie le Dingue on French TV, now where's that feather?

dropkickrugby

thomond2006 wrote: »

3 units on Munster -16 vs Dragons.

How do you reckon they'll do v Treviso? (edit - insert cardiff in there somewhere)

4PP

Munster + Leinster Planks style double @ 1/5

dropkickrugby

sitting on stade f ht, perpignan ft. In by a whisker at ht 12-11

thomond2006

dropkickrugby wrote: »

How do you reckon they'll do v Treviso? (edit - insert cardiff in there somewhere)

I wouldn't go near that, Treviso don't do well away from home and Cardiff are a meh side.

P_1

4PP wrote: »

Munster + Leinster Planks style double @ 1/5

On the same myself, looking good so far

profitius

dropkickrugby wrote: »

anyone else fancy QUins today v Tigers? +7 is a big start

I missed it. :mad:

Quins have a better team, not many injuries and are on form. Best bet since the Scarlets vs Leinster.

dropkickrugby

profitius wrote: »

I missed it. :mad:

Quins have a better team, not many injuries and are on form. Best bet since the Scarlets vs Leinster.

well make sure you get on the site next week and you wont miss anymore!:D (we're 4 out of 5 so far this week in the premiership- would have been five if not for Northampton surrendering a 30 point lead to end up only winning by 6 ! ( still hurts that one) and stopped playing completely v Worcester). We had the halftime/full time Quins too at 7/2.

lads, im looking for an angle on the exeter sarries game tomorrow. Best i can come up with so far is one team to win both halves at 5/4. There's a mental amount of rain forecast for the whole area tomorrow ( proper serious deluges like) and the logic here is that whoever gets ahead, will stay ahead once the pitch cuts up. Chiefs with alot of injuries, and Saracens with an awesome bench, my only worry is Farrell starting as he's gash and may miss the kicks that count. This thing has Saracens 1-12 nailed on aside from the above.

P_1

dropkickrugby wrote: »

well make sure you get on the site next week and you wont miss anymore!:D

lads, im looking for an angle on the exeter sarries game tomorrow. Best i can come up with so far is one team to win both halves at 5/4. There's a mental amount of rain forecast for the whole area tomorrow ( proper serious deluges like) and the logic here is that whoever gets ahead, will stay ahead once the pitch cuts up. Chiefs with alot of injuries, and Saracens with an awesome bench, my only worry is Farrell starting as he's gash and may miss the kicks that count. This thing has Saracens 1-12 nailed on aside from the above.

Sarries to score 1st, lead at half time and win @ 13/5 looks tempting with PP

Seems the bookies have also taken the weather into consideration with the over/under markets. Not to be seen it appears

thomond2006

thomond2006 wrote: »

1 unit on USAP +7 away to Stade Francais.

Stade won by 10.

thomond2006 wrote: »

3 units on Munster -16 vs Dragons.

Whew got away with this one, jesus I could have killed Keatley at the end!

dropkickrugby

yeah pithater, they're definitely wide to it at this point.

I think ill have some of that special you mentioned there. Just a small bit thoguh as again, we can't count on Farrell to get anything unless its 5 yards either side of in front of the posts. In fact with him starting im even more confident of the 1-12. And ( im thinking out loud here), Exeter ht/ Sarries FT could be excellent value at 13/2 biggest. If they get the wind they've a good chance of winning to half time, and as mentioned the Sarries bench is truly formidable ( pronounced in a french accent)

dropkickrugby

thomond2006 wrote: »

Stade won by 10.



Whew got away with this one, jesus I could have killed Keatley at the end!

My dog thought his world was coming to an end after the howl I let out of me. :eek:

P_1

dropkickrugby wrote: »

yeah pithater, they're definitely wide to it at this point.

I think ill have some of that special you mentioned there. Just a small bit thoguh as again, we can't count on Farrell to get anything unless its 5 yards either side of in front of the posts. In fact with him starting im even more confident of the 1-12. And ( im thinking out loud here), Exeter ht/ Sarries FT could be excellent value at 13/2 biggest. If they get the wind they've a good chance of winning to half time, and as mentioned the Sarries bench is truly formidable ( pronounced in a french accent)

Trouble with matches with wind forecast is that you can't really bet without knowing who has the wind for the 1st half

Connacht matches at home are notorious for that

dropkickrugby

true enough.

There's two things in the favour of the htft exeter

1) Farrell's wayward kicking
2) the possibility that exeter get the wind in the first half

the major things in favour of sarries finishing on the winning side is that theyve a better team, Exeter have injuries, and sarries have a very good impact bench.

It's one to poinder this.

P_1

I don't suppose its on the box? That will influence my decision greatly

dropkickrugby

As bad as that is i'm the same- bigger punts on the tv games more often than not.

espn classic- which means streams could be a bit ropey. One stream did change it for the second half of whatever game was on last week so the vipbox lot should have it sorted for this week

P_1

dropkickrugby wrote: »

As bad as that is i'm the same- bigger punts on the tv games more often than not.

espn classic- which means streams could be a bit ropey. One stream did change it for the second half of whatever game was on last week so the vipbox lot should have it sorted for this week

Its useful for establishing what way the wind goes and who wins the toss alright

dropkickrugby

someone is either listening or thinking along these lines anyway- ladbokes were the last with 13/2 and into 6/1 now.

dropkickrugby

dropkickrugby wrote: »

true enough.

There's two things in the favour of the htft exeter

1) Farrell's wayward kicking
2) the possibility that exeter get the wind in the first half

the major things in favour of sarries finishing on the winning side is that theyve a better team, Exeter have injuries, and sarries have a very good impact bench.

It's one to poinder this.

well lads it was a dream half of rugby. Exeter in at half time in the lead 9-6. Farrell got his first two from 20 yards out in front of the posts, but his third was a shocking miss from 30 yards out and just slightly to the left - wayward and brutal as predicted. Once they get him off and let charlie kick the rest, sarries bench SHOULD take them through - Chiefs are fired up though no doubt about it, but youd wonder if that can last 80 minutes with the bare enough looking bench.

dropkickrugby

Exeter win 14-12. not sure how they managed it in awful conditions - ashton stupid yellow for saracens didnt help, Farrell missing another easy kick, Brits throwing a stupid risky pass at the end when hodgson was set for a drop goal, McCall only bringing hodgson on with 15 to go...hang on, i do know how they did it

still, great value punt that should have win.