Arctic sea ice heads for record low

Su Campu

srmambo wrote: »

Ice area now at 2.3009 and this melt rate looks to increase greatly according to the deep FI in the GFS charts.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

If such a trend holds true, there is a the potential that the ice could melt to zero by the end of the month, especially if the melt period is extended which it will be due to the ocean temperatures.

Could this trend set off an abrupt eruption of methane and push the world into a runaway climate change within days?

Eh, I don't think so. :rolleyes:

With only one more week of ice melt season to go there is not a snowball's chance in hell (pun intended) of it reaching anywhere near zero. And as for the runaway climate change in days comment.....

Supercell

srmambo wrote: »

Could this trend set off an abrupt eruption of methane and push the world into a runaway climate change within days?

Within days, unlikely, within decades maybe imho:(

maquiladora

The BBC have a new article on this today.

...

The Norwegian Polar Institute (NPI) is at the forefront of Arctic research and its international director, Kim Holmen, told the BBC that the speed of the melting was faster than expected.

"It is a greater change than we could even imagine 20 years ago, even 10 years ago," Dr Holmen said.


"And it has taken us by surprise and we must adjust our understanding of the system and we must adjust our science and we must adjust our feelings for the nature around us."

The institute has been deploying its icebreaker, Lance, to research conditions between Svalbard and Greenland - the main route through which ice flows out of the Arctic Ocean.

During a visit to the port, one of the scientists involved, Dr Edmond Hansen, told me he was "amazed" at the size and speed of this year's melt.

"As a scientist, I know that this is unprecedented in at least as much as 1,500 years. It is truly amazing - it is a huge dramatic change in the system," Dr Hansen said.

...

Lots of other interesting stuff in there, including the video 'Alan Thorpe of the European Weather Centre explains the link between melting ice in the Arctic and the UK's poor summer'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-19508906

srmambo

This forecaster here states that the ice melt could continue until September 30th or even into part of October.

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0ByLujhsHsxP7QndrZjdKX2szTHM/edit

maquiladora

srmambo wrote: »

This forecaster here states that the ice melt could continue until September 30th or even into part of October.

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0ByLujhsHsxP7QndrZjdKX2szTHM/edit

It looks like it's leveled off now.

zenno

Supercell wrote: »

From http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn22175-arctic-sea-ice-heads-for-record-low.html

Excerpt :-

It's called the summer ice breakup. it happens every year, i don't see the problem as it will expand again in the coming winter.

maquiladora

zenno wrote: »

It's called the summer ice breakup. it happens every year, i don't see the problem as it will expand again in the coming winter.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=80663718&postcount=64

Projected arctic sea ice. 95% probability of zero arctic sea ice existing in the summer months by 2018.

Nermal

srmambo wrote: »

Could this trend set off an abrupt eruption of methane and push the world into a runaway climate change within days?

:rolleyes: been watching the day after tomorrow again, have we?

zenno

maquiladora wrote: »

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=80663718&postcount=64

Projected arctic sea ice. 95% probability of zero arctic sea ice existing in the summer months by 2018.

I see, but could this be an entirely natural event of which happens every few hundred years ? and if it is then why should anyone worry. Normal climatic events like this happen maybe over hundreds if not thousands of years and could be just a natural cycle ?.

Supercell

zenno wrote: »

I see, but could this be an entirely natural event of which happens every few hundred years ? and if it is then why should anyone worry. Normal climatic events like this happen maybe over hundreds if not thousands of years and could be just a natural cycle ?.

The point is that the effects of all this melting ice are a known unknown about to happen and almost certainly will cause climate change, whether its "natural" ot not, its happening and god knows the effects.
Would you say Katla erupting in Iceland,for example, is AOK for us just because its natural and probably happened in the past sometime?

zenno

Supercell wrote: »

The point is that the effects of all this melting ice are a known unknown about to happen and almost certainly will cause climate change, whether its "natural" ot not, its happening and god knows the effects.
Would you say Katla erupting in Iceland,for example, is AOK for us just because its natural and probably happened in the past sometime?

No, of course not, we can be assured if that volcano blew up again we would have seriously colder winters imo. I was just curious about this melting and i know what you mean in that even if it is a natural cyclic event it will still affect the weather patterns in ways i'm not fully sure of. I wasn't thinking properly on what cause and effect this melting would have on us, i never really took that into account, well i know now.

srmambo

zenno wrote: »

No, of course not, we can be assured if that volcano blew up again we would have seriously colder winters imo. I was just curious about this melting and i know what you mean in that even if it is a natural cyclic event it will still affect the weather patterns in ways i'm not fully sure of. I wasn't thinking properly on what cause and effect this melting would have on us, i never really took that into account, well i know now.

The gasses from the volcano would also have the potential to speed global warming further, plus the soot settling on the ice caps decreasing earth's abledo even further.

Also forgive me for my question, but why do some of you think that the global temperature would not escalate into runaway global warming within days (or possibly a few weeks or a month) in combination with the global warming caused by earth's weak albedo and the current carbon dioxide right now?

catch.23

srmambo wrote: »

The gasses from the volcano would also have the potential to speed global warming further, plus the soot settling on the ice caps decreasing earth's abledo even further.

Also forgive me for my question, but why do some of you think that the global temperature would not escalate into runaway global warming within days (or possibly a few weeks or a month) in combination with the global warming caused by earth's weak albedo and the current carbon dioxide right now?

If Katla were to erupt, it is thought that the eruption would be powerful enough to send gases higher than the lower atmosphere, where they would have a cooling effect instead of a greenhouse effect.

As for your other point, the ice melt in the northern hemisphere ends in september - there won't be the heat to allow for further melting and an instant runaway effect. The heat has to come from somewhere, but very soon the arctic will be in darkness and the ice will grow again.

Even if in 20/30/50 years time there is full melt in the summer, there will always be ice regrowth in the winter.

srmambo

catch.23 wrote: »

If Katla were to erupt, it is thought that the eruption would be powerful enough to send gases higher than the lower atmosphere, where they would have a cooling effect instead of a greenhouse effect.

As for your other point, the ice melt in the northern hemisphere ends in september - there won't be the heat to allow for further melting and an instant runaway effect. The heat has to come from somewhere, but very soon the arctic will be in darkness and the ice will grow again.

Even if in 20/30/50 years time there is full melt in the summer, there will always be ice regrowth in the winter.

Regardless of whether or not the Arctic is in darkness there is still warm air being pumped up to it so it will still melt regardless.

Also recent data shows an extreme jump in methane levels so a runaway effect could be imminent.

rickdangerouss

It was said that Katla had an eruption last year, VE=0. No one knows for sure when the next one will be, it has gone quiet again this year.

Even if an VE5 were to take place (very low probability) I have yet to read or find anything that says Katla has caused or will cause any cooling effect, yes maybe at a local level.

That said, they are some other volcanos like Grimsvötn/Bardarbunga system on their worse day, could affect northern cooling by at max -1/-2 degrees. Links at the bottom.

Not to go off topic, If the chats on this forum are correct, natural or man made, it's happening now and this affect will cause something else to be affected.






http://volcanocafe.wordpress.com/2012/05/28/whats-going-on-at-katla/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_Explosivity_Index

srmambo

rickdangerouss wrote: »

It was said that Katla had an eruption last year, VE=0. No one knows for sure when the next one will be, it has gone quiet again this year.

Even if an VE5 were to take place (very low probability) I have yet to read or find anything that says Katla has caused or will cause any cooling effect, yes maybe at a local level.

That said, they are some other volcanos like Grimsvötn/Bardarbunga system on their worse day, could affect northern cooling by at max -1/-2 degrees. Links at the bottom.

Not to go off topic, If the chats on this forum are correct, natural or man made, it's happening now and this affect will cause something else to be affected.






http://volcanocafe.wordpress.com/2012/05/28/whats-going-on-at-katla/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_Explosivity_Index

If the two volcanoes you have noted did effect the cooling and brought temperatures down, they would definitely help the sea ice, but only in the short term in my opinion.

tphase

srmambo wrote: »

Regardless of whether or not the Arctic is in darkness there is still warm air being pumped up to it so it will still melt regardless.

what?

Also recent data shows an extreme jump in methane levels so a runaway effect could be imminent.

the data in orange is preliminary ie subject to revision.
if you plot the hourly average in-situ data - it's pretty obvious the flasks were filled during a local pollution event and the data will be flagged and plotted in green when the data is finalised.


so no extreme jump and no imminent runaway effect, at least not based on this 'evidence'

pauldry

For 10 years now I have concentrated on Arctic Sea Level Ice as one of my methods of predicting the weather for Ireland. Each year there has been a pattern of decline. However this year is unprecedented. It seems that the biting point or breaking point has been surpassed and now whatever is going to happen is out of our control.

Ice is melting at a serious rate and this years low was forecast to be slightly less that the previous record low but it has smashed it out of the water if you will excuse the pun.

All this does not bode well and from previous studies a warm Arctic results in a cooler Northern Europe especially at coastal countries while Southern Europe gets even hotter. Bad news for everyone.

Of course maybe none of this will happen at all but surelt it is beyond doubt that changes in the Arctic Climate and temperature are going to have some effect on the global climate.

They will have to effect the jetstream and ocean currents since there will be lots of broken ice falling into the sea. THe problem is when all of this sea ice melts we may see the beginning of the Greenland Ice shelf starting to fall into the sea and what changes this brings could be worse.

I certainly do not think that all this sea ice melt will mean no change in the weather. There will be more rain for Ireland and more heat for some countires and more tornadoes, hurricanes and typhoons. Maybe even some of the earthquake activity could be attributed to the increased melt or vica versa.

We will find out in the next 5 years.

srmambo

After some browsing I found a blog which contains a series of forecasts as to what will happen with regards the global warming at present. Some are not so bad, but then there are some extreme ones which notate a series of critical events such as people resorting to cannibalism in order to survive, nuclear warfare and humanity basically being pushed to extinction.

http://arctic-news.blogspot.ie/2012/06/when-sea-ice-is-gone.html

Su Campu

Cannabilism? I've heard it all now!

NIALL D

Su Campu wrote: »

Cannabilism? I've heard it all now!

hahah , some crazy stuff in there !!!

cherryghost

srmambo wrote: »

After some browsing I found a blog which contains a series of forecasts as to what will happen with regards the global warming at present. Some are not so bad, but then there are some extreme ones which notate a series of critical events such as people resorting to cannibalism in order to survive, nuclear warfare and humanity basically being pushed to extinction.

http://arctic-news.blogspot.ie/2012/06/when-sea-ice-is-gone.html

Jesus wept. Are you from the Daily Mail by any chance?

sharper

srmambo wrote: »

Regardless of whether or not the Arctic is in darkness there is still warm air being pumped up to it so it will still melt regardless.

Warm air does very little to melt the Arctic ice. Sunlight, sea temperatures and wind dominate.

There's most likely about a week of minor melt at most left though another storm could change that. Warm temperatures will inhibit ice growth but with the region now largely in darkness it would take enormous amounts of heat to continue the melt.

For us in the northern hemisphere the question is what effect all that open water will have on our winter weather. As mentioned elsewhere in the thread low levels of summer ice are correlated with high levels of snow elsewhere. The open expanse of water will be dumping a lot of heat and moisture into the atmosphere as the ice forms.

Even more worrying is what will happen next year. The earlier the ice melts the more open water is available to absorb energy. This energy is then released back in the winter months.

Min

In the past the Arctic was ice free at times, the world didn't end.

We are all alive unless we are in an episode of Lost or something.

sharper

Min wrote: »

In the past the Arctic was ice free at times, the world didn't end.

No it didn't end but it was a lot less beneficial to the human race.

How do you build infrastructure when the climate is changing in ways not seen during the last few thousand years? It's very difficult to predict what effect an ice free arctic will have but you can be pretty sure it will have an effect.

gothwalk

sharper wrote: »

How do you build infrastructure when the climate is changing in ways not seen during the last few thousand years? It's very difficult to predict what effect an ice free arctic will have but you can be pretty sure it will have an effect.

This is the thing, really. I'm not much interested any more in whether climate change is anthropogenic or not. And I'll say straight up that I think anyone who's still denying that it's happening at all is either purely ignorant or has an agenda.

Even if it is (or was) caused by humans, I don't think there's much we can do to put the brakes on it now.

The bit that interests me is what we're going to do about it. The "ah sure it'll be fine" attitude bugs me, the "the market will take care of it" one is even more impressively ill-informed. This is the same market that's been selling houses on flood plains for a few decades now, and still can't provide decent broadband access in some suburbs of the capital, yeah?

I'm particularly interested in flood planning, and in planning for sea level rises. The longer term climatic effects will be more gradual, and won't involve immediate problems, as it were (although many of them will be more unpleasant) - but houses and streets being under a few inches of water has to be dealt with on the spot. However, since there is no actual guarantee that sea-level will rise or that there will be more rain (or even more intense rain), there's very little planning done.

It is entirely true that the planet has been ice-cap free in the past. But human civilisation essentially didn't exist then, and certainly didn't have hundreds of whacking great cities on the coasts. In the past few glacial/inter-glacial periods, sea level has varied by quite a lot - 100 metres, for a ballpark figure. If it were to rise by even 10 metres in the next century, the species would be in a lot of trouble. We just don't have the resources to move everything off the coasts in that time-frame.

And indeed, given the usual Dublin-centric nature of this board, the fact that most of the city would be well underwater at that should be of some interest, and merit a wee bit of planning (even if the plan is "move to Wicklow").

sharper

Danno wrote: »

What data are you looking at lads...

No record low at all! http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/

Incidentally the IMS charts have now been updated and show the same record lows as the other groups.

rickdangerouss

Winter has hit Iceland quickly this year, 140kph blizzard has hit the north hard.

Most of Northern Iceland is without power. another storm is due next week.

This is unusual weather and I am reading the lost of sea ice has raised the moisture level in the air in the north
making the storm last longer and making it stronger. The Viagra of weather me thinks!! lol



http://www.mbl.is/frettir/innlent/20...r_med_stongum/

Translate with Giggle translator, I.E. Google translator

srmambo

Sea Ice Area now at 2.3682 - http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

Looks like we might be in for a temporary increase in the melt rate.



Deep FI GFS charts showing some very unsettled weather up in the Arctic also which is albeit worrying.

Su Campu

srmambo wrote: »

Sea Ice Area now at 2.3682 - http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

Looks like we might be in for a temporary increase in the melt rate.

Deep FI GFS charts showing some very unsettled weather up in the Arctic also which is albeit worrying.

Please do explain why you see an increase in melt rate and what's looking so unsettled about the Arctic. You seem to be constantly pushing this pessimistic idea, for whatever reason. The melt is coming to an end and we will see an increase again in the next couple of weeks. Why, even the link you posted above shows it levelled off and even on the increase.