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Arctic sea ice heads for record low
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Please do explain why you see an increase in melt rate and what's looking so unsettled about the Arctic. You seem to be constantly pushing this pessimistic idea, for whatever reason. The melt is coming to an end and we will see an increase again in the next couple of weeks. Why, even the link you posted above shows it levelled off and even on the increase.
The GFS charts showed off some unsettled weather from the deep depressions that are shown in the image I posted.
I understand the chart does show an increase in the ice area, but note how the amount of digits has been significantly reduced showing a huge spike in the melt rate.
It was 2.34117, but it went down to 2.3682 which is a major drop in sea ice unless of course there is something I am missing.0 -
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srmambo, you need to start reading other stuff on the Arctic that's a little less alarmist.
Agreed, but would you classify this news report as warmist.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2012/sep/13/less-arctic-sea-ice-satellites0 -
srmambo, you need to start reading other stuff on the Arctic that's a little less alarmist.
Agreed, but would you classify this news report as warmist.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2012/sep/13/less-arctic-sea-ice-satellites
It's a newspaper so therefore yes, it is alarmist. And it's the The Guardian, so definitely so!! :-)
50% coverage at 83.5 N is not that unusual in the height of melt season. Sure they can't even get the calculations right - 83.5 N is 450 miles from the Pole, not 350!!! (1 degree latitude is 69 miles)0 -
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Interesting to notice how over the past 10 days the sea ice concentration in the region of the north pole has changed. Notice how the dark purple (80-100% concentration) is being overtaken there by red (60% concentration of ice).
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/CT/animate.arctic.color.0.html
Not much longer left in the melting season now though. Next summer will be very interesting, with so much multiyear ice having melted in 2012.0 -
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I've mentioned about the effect of the PDO and AMO on northern hemisphere climate in the past and got slated here, but at the risk of getting more abuse, here it is again!
Over the past century there has been a notable fall in sea ice extent occuring when the end of a warm PDO coincides with the middle phase of a warm AMO. The green summer graph below shows that these sudden falls at 1952-53 and 2006-07 displace the common baseline downwards for future years, and the PDO and AMO graphs under that show that these occur at the end of the warm PDOs and when the AMO is in full warm mode.
As to why the baseline doesn't recover during cold phases? It appears that over the period shown by the black running mean curve there have been around 20% more warm PDO years than cold.
It will be interesting to watch how the ice plays out within the next decade or so when the AMO flips back negative.
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Joe B is a complete joke. At times he displays less wit than the Watts and Goddards of the debate.
As for the AMO Su, you may be interested in this paper http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/7/3/034011?fromSearchPage=true
The PDO goes through oscillations while the sea ice is in a long term decline, so it doesn't work.
Besides, the PDO averaged out over all available years is actually slightly below 0, showing once more why eyeballing graphs with something as complex as climate is completely futile.
Here's a link to the data http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest0 -
A downward trend in summer extent actually began after the 50s, during the relative global cooling period pre-70s, and has accelerated in recent decades, as you would expect with the cumulative effect of proportionately more sea surrounding increasingly less ice. This therefore hints that it was something more than anthropogenic forcing that started this trend. I'm saying that if you look closer it is more marked during warm AMO, but also after a warm PDO, which has become more dominant in recent centuries, and around 20% more so in the last 100 years or so (around 57 warm years versus 47 cold). This warmer bias could be the reason for the increasingly downward trend we see in the chart above. You showed the AMO can account for up to 30% of the difference, and I'm just pointing out another pattern in the records that is fairly obvious to anyone looking at it objectively, eyeballing or not.
PDO reconstruction from 990 to present day.
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