Arctic sea ice heads for record low

srmambo

What effect does a polar low have on the Arctic during the season whereas it is supposed to refreeze. Will it just cause it to melt some more. If so then the storm forecast for the sea ice is not good news

SEA ICE ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
125 PM AKDT FRIDAY OCTOBER 12 2012

FORECAST VALID...WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 17 2012

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...HIGH TO MODERATE.

SYNOPSIS...A POLAR LOW WILL PERSIST IN THE CHUKCHI AND BEAUFORT SEAS
THROUGH TUESDAY... THEN SLOWLY SHIFT WEST INTO THE EAST SIBERIAN SEA
WEDNESDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN SIBERIA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/ice.php

Nabber

Melting is finished. Ice may break up, but pretty sure it will refreeze at this stage.

It will be interesting to sea what the ice extent in March will be like & and if less ice means colder UK and Irl.

catch.23

Nabber wrote: »

Melting is finished. Ice may break up, but pretty sure it will refreeze at this stage.

It will be interesting to sea what the ice extent in March will be like & and if less ice means colder UK and Irl.

Extent won't tell the full story though, what will be more interesting will be the ice volume, as a larger proportion of the ice than usual will be '1st year ice'', and will be less likely to last the full summer.

Wolfe_IRE

Arctic refreeze fastest ever
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/10/18/sea-ice-news-volume-3-number-15-arctic-refreeze-fastest-ever/

After all of the news about a minimum record ice extent last month, this is interesting. As we know when water loses its ice cover, it allows a lot of heat to radiate into space as LWIR. many predictied that as a result of the extra open ocean surface, we see a very fast refreeze in the Arctic. It appears they were right. In fact, this is the fastest monthly scale refreeze rate in the NSIDC satellite record going back to 1979.

ninebeanrows

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

Arctic refreeze fastest ever
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/10/18/sea-ice-news-volume-3-number-15-arctic-refreeze-fastest-ever/

After all of the news about a minimum record ice extent last month, this is interesting. As we know when water loses its ice cover, it allows a lot of heat to radiate into space as LWIR. many predictied that as a result of the extra open ocean surface, we see a very fast refreeze in the Arctic. It appears they were right. In fact, this is the fastest monthly scale refreeze rate in the NSIDC satellite record going back to 1979.

I was under the impression open ocean absorbs alot more radiation than ice cover. Surely this is the case due to the surface albedo.? Or am i missing something?

Su Campu

Weathercheck wrote: »

I was under the impression open ocean absorbs alot more radiation than ice cover. Surely this is the case due to the surface albedo.? Or am i missing something?

It does in summer when there is 24 hours of solar radiation, but now there is net heat loss as this radiation vanishes.

Su Campu

Here's the change in concentration between the minimum on September 16th and 1 month later. A big increase the East Siberian Sea, and towards the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. The Fram Strait, the main channel through which ice is lost to the south, is almost closed off now.

MiNdGaM3

It has been an impressively quick refreeze so far.
The trend has been for increased October gains quite a while. The last 7 years have all been in the top 10 October extent gains.

Su Campu

It stands to reason alright

Nabber

Largest % gain and not volume gain

October so far, nice explosion of snow cover and ice growth in the past 10-12 days.
http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/loop/asia-1mo-loop.html

MiNdGaM3

Nabber wrote: »

Largest % gain and not volume gain

October so far, nice explosion of snow cover and ice growth in the past 10-12 days.
http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/loop/asia-1mo-loop.html

Unfortunately, the rapid ice gain has come to an end the last 2 days, with losses being record on both the NSIDC (25th) and IJIS (26th) extent values. Area values have been updating kinda sporadically, and aren't quite up to date anyway.

The recent boom in snow cover across Eurasia is a very big positive for those wanting cold and snow this winter.
The "Snow Advanced Index" or the SAI, is a measure of the rate of increase in Eurasian October snow cover south of 60N correlates extremely well with the AO in the following winter.
Having started the month off with such low snow cover, and having had quite a boom in recent weeks, the SAI index should be looking very good for a strongly -ve AO this winter.
Here's the paper, and the graph below showing the October SAI and Winter AO.

srmambo

Jaxa is showing a drop in the Arctic Sea Ice extent from yestarday

The latest value : 7,103,281 km2 (October 26, 2012)

MiNdGaM3

srmambo wrote: »

Jaxa is showing a drop in the Arctic Sea Ice extent from yestarday

Lowest on record again on both the NSIDC and IJIS extent.

Mamy5 wrote: »

Someone answer me here

Your link ain't working right. Can you post the question up here?

Redsunset

Link is spam and poster is now site banned

Su Campu

After its summer expedition in the Arctic, the German research vessel Polastern has left Bremerhaven for its long trip to the Antarctic summer.



http://www.awi.de/en/infrastructure/ships/polarstern/