prediction of our position in europe in 5 years time

kdowling

I see bookies like paddypower are now taking bets on if we will still have the euro currency in 5 years time.

I'd like to hear people's predictions as to the political situation in europe in 5 years time.

Will we be in the euro?
Will there be a two tiered euro?
Will there be ANY euro?

Gurgle

kdowling wrote: »

I see bookies like paddypower are now taking bets on if we will still have the euro currency in 5 years time.

I'd like to hear people's predictions as to the political situation in europe in 5 years time.

Will we be in the euro?
Will there be a two tiered euro?
Will there be ANY euro?

The euro is not a political situation, its a transnational currency.
And yes there will still be a euro and we'll still be using it.

RATM

I think there will be a euro in 5 years time but don't think that we'll be in it.

I think the crises as it stands is no longer fully in the control of the politicians - and even where they do have power to fix the problem it is unpalatable to the electorates they serve to do so. Merkel might genuinely want to sort this mess out but her conservative voter base are dead against the measures that are needed. The same goes for the Finnish people at large, politicians there are already sabre rattling about what they'll do if there is any kind of federalisation of the debt.

One of the main reasons I think that we'll end up outside the euro is my own belief that if you follow the money then you'll be right more often that wrong. Defaulting for us would be a financial disaster. But its important to remember that in any financial situation where you find a loser there is also a winner to counterbalance it. In this case the financial winners will be hedge funds who stand to make some of the biggest profits in economic history should there be defaults. Wall Street has taken billion dollar positions on Ireland (and others) defaulting for sometime now. In other words if you follow the money then it'll lead you to believe that defaults are inevitable.

Incidentally Ireland has already defaulted just there a few months ago. We didn't have money to pay a bond and had to go to the troika to get permission to perform some financial wizardry which involved loans and counter loans between the Central Bank, Bank of Ireland and NAMA so we could pay the bond. The whole exercise cost a further bill of €90m in interest and Michael Noonan sold it as a great deal for Ireland. No-one in the Irish media mentioned the fact that if you can't pay your debts as they fall due then you've had a default but the whole incident it didn't go unnoticed internationally.

NIMAN

we'll all still be kicking the can ..........

Godge

We will be in the euro and we will be growing faster than any other country in Europe. In fact, we are already set to be the only one of the PIIGS to have economic growth this year, next is to continue this.

The one thing missing for Ireland is some growth in the European economy. There are already enough plans in place and enough in the pipeline (property tax, reduction in PS numbers etc) to mean that we are on the way to sorting our own problems, we just need a helping hand from the European economy.

Icepick

Paddy's odds?

im invisible

Quarter finals at least

declanx

Yes to all three questions by the OP. The EU wants a star pupil thats been reformed. Also maybe with more EU intergration and a federal tax.

But not to fear, the holy Joes are quoting the book of Daneil saying this is the new holy roman empire and we are all dead. Repent.

Its on the web so it must be true.

http://www.prophecydude.org/tribulation/new-roman-empire/

Icepick

Dapics wrote: »

Our Government will have no control.

one can dream .. one can dream

Manach

Back under Commissionair Delors, the major structural reforms that lead to the current EU took a decade or so to plan and carry through. It would likely take a similar amount of time to evaluate the new treaty changes and if they change the current situation.

RATM

Finnish Foreign Minister puts plans in place for a collapse of the euro

http://www.independent.ie/business/european/we-have-to-prepare-for-collapse-of-the-euro-says-finland-3203006.html

I think we are approaching something big this winter, the end game is nigh

D1stant

In 5 years time after emergency European summit no. 96 we will be on the verge of a significant statement by the ECB

FF will be back in power with a huge majority vowing never toi repeat the mistakes that FG made in getting us into this mess

Bertie Ahern will be president of China, and I will be in the pub laughing me bollix off

Cheerful Spring

If Germany (somewhat France) is willing to pay off other countries debts with a loan agreement. The euro will be fine. Our position is only sustainable at this time. If we still receive funding. If the Euro collapses the young, unemployed, old of this country honestly i think are not prepared for it. Some don't even talk about it. Some old and young people live week by week on the income they get from government. If that was stopped who knows what would happen in this state.

Cheerful Spring

Godge wrote: »

We will be in the euro and we will be growing faster than any other country in Europe. In fact, we are already set to be the only one of the PIIGS to have economic growth this year, next is to continue this.

The one thing missing for Ireland is some growth in the European economy. There are already enough plans in place and enough in the pipeline (property tax, reduction in PS numbers etc) to mean that we are on the way to sorting our own problems, we just need a helping hand from the European economy.

The problem with this is lot of that economic growth does not belong to indigenous companies. The majority of wealth generated from sales likely doesn't stay here in Ireland either . Its false growth as we are always depending on foreign investors. If they stick around in Ireland great, but if they pull out we are screwed. But foreign companies they do pay taxes, and provide longtern employment so there is benefits there for the Irish economy. Yet the Irish economy will never get back to 2004 levels because we have too much unemployed people today and we are too dependent on outside help for work.

Melanoma

declanx wrote: »

Yes to all three questions by the OP. The EU wants a star pupil thats been reformed. Also maybe with more EU intergration and a federal tax.

But not to fear, the holy Joes are quoting the book of Daneil saying this is the new holy roman empire and we are all dead. Repent.

Its on the web so it must be true.

http://www.prophecydude.org/tribulation/new-roman-empire/

Such predictions have been going on this past thirty years. The truth is that if there s a biblical connection it would be dependent on several other factors for the prophecy to be actionable.

johnnyskeleton

kdowling wrote: »

I see bookies like paddypower are now taking bets on if we will still have the euro currency in 5 years time.

I'd like to hear people's predictions as to the political situation in europe in 5 years time.

Will we be in the euro?
Will there be a two tiered euro?
Will there be ANY euro?

Yes - too difficult to leave, we would be much worse off.

No - would be the same as if the whole currency collapsed.

Yes - euro collapse talk is as old as the euro and is based on a political view more than an economc one. The euro is, despite some commentators views, in as good a position as other leading currencies.

But all that aside, you'd want some serious odds to put a bet on for 5 years.