Autumn 2012

Blizzard 2010

Autumn is just around the corner. What are your predictions? I am going for a mild/warm autumn with a few beefy storms thrown in for good measure:D

Birdnuts

I wouldn't be suprised if much of it was warmer and drier then June/July

cherryghost

I'd say a cool wet start to September, gradually easing into a cool dry one. That'd be optimistic at this point tbh

Sponge Bob

Above average temps I reckon.

Tombo2001

Is there any science to this or is it all gut feel.

In which case, it might be warm, it might be cool, it might be wet, it might be dry......but most likely it will be a bit of all the above.

Lucreto

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/all-the-leaves-are-brown-trees-signal-onset-of-early-autumn-3203890.html

The leaves are beginning to fall already.

tylercollins

Lucreto wrote: »

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/all-the-leaves-are-brown-trees-signal-onset-of-early-autumn-3203890.html

The leaves are beginning to fall already.

I think I made a thread about leaves turning brown a while back, I'll see if I can find it!

Sponge Bob

Fecks sake, what are teh bloody Indo at with this quackery. Last year the leaves in Galway were all windburnt/saltburnt after severe May storms...worst I ever saw and it looked like autumn by early June. That would explain 2011 handy enough.

And it wasn't hot in April, it was hot in March when leaves were not yet out but hardly enough to damage the buds. It was cold enough for long enough in May to damage buds I thought and that after a relative drought in Q1 when the sap should have been rising.

I have stacks of NATIVE trees growing ...12-14 species...and none are showing a hint of brown in Galway. Global warming me arse.

tylercollins

Yup, here it is here http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=79995321

It's getting really noticeable now as well, a lot more leaves on the ground.

BEASTERLY

LOL, look what the ECM has progged for the 1st day of September, back to school kids!

Elmer Blooker

It's still looking good for early Sept which isn't surprising after a poor summer.



GFS more or less identical.

Lucreto

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

It's still looking good for early Sept which isn't surprising after a poor summer.



GFS more or less identical.

That is okay for me I am on my 2 weeks holidays so nice weather would be nice.:D I don't like the warm weather usually.

Once it doesn't last long I don't want a repeat of last years weather and ruin winter.

Blizzard 2010

CFS is going for a cool autumn. I suppose the nice fine weather due for next week will be good news for the farmers. No harm in a few warm days:D

Tindie

BEASTERLY wrote: »

LOL, look what the ECM has progged for the 1st day of September, back to school kids!

Where do you get these charts from?
I like to know if there one for 23rd September

Deep Easterly

This day 2 years ago (6th Sept 2010 ) saw a very active and slow moving occlusion lying over the country which gave some very high daily totals in places, especially in some southern and central parts. Some nice thunderstorms developed also in the afternoon in parts of the midwest as the front cleared this area.

Midnight to Midnight rainfall totals for this day (From met.ie)

Knock Apt: 86.5 mm
Mullingar: 59.4 mm
Oak Park: 47.1 mm
Claremorris: 46.9 mm

Other totals (based on 00 UTC to 00 UTC values from Ogimet)

Johnstown Castle: 61.0 mm
Malin Head: 38.0 mm
Dublin Apt: 22.0 mm

Frontal Analysis for 12 UTC 6th Sept 2010 shows this occlusion lying north/south over the central part of the country. Its associated low actually deepened again later that evening as it moved up over the NW of Ireland.


Image from the UK Met Office


One fairly unusual thing about the actual rainfall distribution on this day is that a lot of coastal stations only recorded relatively small amounts in comparison to the large totals recorded at most inland stations.

http://tinyurl.com/9qqlg7g

EDIT, 7th: Just to add a couple of the images I saved on my external on this day.

Met.ie radar for the entire day of the 6th Sept 2010:




and a quick grab of the visible satellite at around noon: (from sat24.com)



A really dense, but beautiful looking cloud mass streaming up over Ireland. As can be seen in the radar sequence, it was to pivot over the NW later that evening as the low deepened slightly, which really helped Knock Apt top up its daily totals for this day.