Price Rises & Price Trends

Lemlin

An awful lot of people spend time studying Fiso and the like so I thought it'd be good to have a trend for price rises and trends, so that people could be kept informed of who looked like rising or falling etc.

I see Michu went up last night. Did anyone else go up/down? Looking like doing so?

Hogey007

Tevez looks set to increase tonight.

Hogey007

Hogey007 wrote: »

Tevez looks set to increase tonight.

Nathan Dyer also looks set to increase tonight and Petric isn't too far away either.

So if you were thinking of adding in any of the 3 (especially Tevez or Dyer) before the next gameweek today is the day to do it if you want to avoid any price increases.
You could wait until after the united match if you were checking any players in that.

Brussels Sprout

Fiso doesn't seem to be calibrated correctly as of yet but Tevez has a NTI of +26,000 and with 9,000 transfers in already today he'll probably go up tonight. Aguerro then is likely go down. He's at -35,000. He'll probably drop tonight or tomorrow. I'd imagine a lot of people are doing a straight swap between the two of them after Aguerro's injury and Tevez scoring yesterday.

Hogey007

I've been looking at this one too which someone posted in the general chat or matchday thread.

http://development.totalfpl.com/pricechanges

Mint Sauce

Alex Song has already gone down by 0.1

Really should have paid more attention before buying him.

Rooy

Lemlin wrote: »

An awful lot of people spend time studying Fiso and the like so I thought it'd be good to have a trend for price rises and trends, so that people could be kept informed of who looked like rising or falling etc.

I see Michu went up last night. Did anyone else go up/down? Looking like doing so?

Havent really figured out the calculations myself , do we know what the NTI needs to be in a gameweek before the price increase ? , even a rough idea ?

Fizman

irish-stew wrote: »

Alex Song has already gone down by 0.1

Really should have paid more attention before buying him.

He has passed a medical at Real!

Jax Teller

Fizman wrote: »

He has passed a medical at Real!

Barca

carlcon

Fizman wrote: »

He has passed a medical at Real!

The other one.

jcunning

10% of player ownership to trigger a price rise, unless flagged or protected. It's never completely accurate as we only get player ownership to one decimal point. Check out http://www.fiso.co.uk/forum/the-fiso-guide-to-fpl-price-changes-the-code-thread-09-10-t62623.html for more information.

Having said that, on Monday night Michu was at 27% so I assumed I could wait another day, until after Everton v Man U to make transfers. I checked the fpl site at 3.43am and Michu had risen already by 0.1. Took many people by suprise so don't feel bad for missing out.

PopTarts

Tevez was the only one to go up last night.

Lemlin

PopTarts wrote: »

Tevez was the only one to go up last night.

Modric has gone down .1.

OneColdHand

Michu gone up again. Glad I got him at the start of the week now, that's .2 he's gone up. He might even manage one more price rise.

PopTarts

Aguerro dropped .1 too.

Is he definitely out?

125,000 + have got rid of him in the last few days.

Hogey007

Nathan Dyer gone up .1 too

so glad i put michu in before his first price rise. is it possible he could even go up another .1 when a lot of people do their transfers friday/saturday morning?

Hogey007

petric looks likely to rise too and tevez isn't far off another price rise for anyone thinking of adding either of them.

PopTarts

Hogey007 wrote: »

Nathan Dyer gone up .1 too

so glad i put michu in before his first price rise. is it possible he could even go up another .1 when a lot of people do their transfers friday/saturday morning?

This is from the site..

Once the season has started, player prices may change by £0.1m a day, based on activity in the transfer market.
Both the formula used to calculate this change and the time of the change include variable factors, and won’t be revealed to game players.

Hogey007

PopTarts wrote: »

This is from the site..

Once the season has started, player prices may change by £0.1m a day, based on activity in the transfer market.
Both the formula used to calculate this change and the time of the change include variable factors, and won’t be revealed to game players.

hmm based on that then i would expect him to go up at least another 0.1 by the time the gameweek closes. A lot of people don't do their transfers until team news is announced on a friday so should be a whole more transfering him in then.

PopTarts

Hogey007 wrote: »

hmm based on that then i would expect him to go up at least another 0.1 by the time the gameweek closes. A lot of people don't do their transfers until team news is announced on a friday so should be a whole more transfering him in then.

I remember last year though (I think) that there was one or two players who we thought would go up another .1 or so but it didn't happen.

It might have changed.

Not really sure how it works! As it says "won't be revealed to game players" so it's prob made up as it goes along :rolleyes:

kennyb3

Tevez likely to go up again tonight - esp with Aguero falling. Petric and Hazard will prob go up too.

thunderdog

I think last year wasn't there a cap of a rise of 0.3 for any given gameweek?

Mint Sauce

Fizman wrote: »

He has passed a medical at Real!

Coletrickle88 wrote: »

Barca

Which ever it is neither play in the EPL.

machiavellianme

kennyb3 wrote: »

Tevez likely to go up again tonight - esp with Aguero falling. Petric and Hazard will prob go up too.

Bit of an odd one seeing as he misses GW3, cant understand why people are buying him in now to warm their bench (fair enough if you already have him for the DGW)

Lemlin

PopTarts wrote: »

Aguerro dropped .1 too.

Is he definitely out?

125,000 + have got rid of him in the last few days.

Out for a month so he'll be back for FW4 after the international break I'd say.

I had him gone from my team before the game was over on Sunday.

OneColdHand

machiavellianme wrote: »

Bit of an odd one seeing as he misses GW3, cant understand why people are buying him in now to warm their bench (fair enough if you already have him for the DGW)

Agreed. Some people mentioning swapping Mata out for Hazard?! Makes no sense.

carlcon

thunderdog wrote: »

I think last year wasn't there a cap of a rise of 0.3 for any given gameweek?

That's my understanding of it, yeah. No player raised over 0.3, and those who should have just kept their increase saved for the next GW, and even if they gained enough for another load before then, they'd only get 0.1 and start again.

kennyb3

All aboard the hazard wagon after GW3

dahat

kennyb3 wrote: »

All aboard the hazard wagon after GW3

Will rise well before then,by .2 i reckon.......

roryc

kennyb3 wrote: »

All aboard the hazard wagon after GW3

Yep I'm waiting, no point in getting him in yet. If he does well next week I'll bring him in for GW 4. Even if he rises 0.3 its not the end of the world, i get the feeling money won't be much of an issue this year.

kennyb3

I ll wait anyway cant leave a 9.5 player on the bench when city and spurs have nice fixtures that week. I always leave cash spare anyway. Be good to see him against a decent team anyway with Newcastle next

roryc

Although if Mata looks set to drop it may be worth getting rid of him...

Hogey007

hazard, petric, ivanovic, dyer & Fellaini all gone up .1

Tevez joins Michu in going up .2 for the week.

bendtner drops .1

SlickRic

Fellaini?

fúcking hell.

good luck to those who have him when he's a holding midfielder next week.

Lemlin

Hogey007 wrote: »

hazard, petric, ivanovic, dyer & Fellaini all gone up .1

Tevez joins Michu in going up .2 for the week.

bendtner drops .1

My 8 point hit is justified so. The lads I've brought in (Tevez, Michu and Petric) have gone up .5 million combined.

Add that to Hazard who I had and my team value is now 100.6 million.

I also dropped Aguero who has gone down.

S.M.B.

Lemlin wrote: »

My 8 point hit is justified so. The lads I've brought in (Tevez, Michu and Petric) have gone up .5 million combined.

Add that to Hazard who I had and my team value is now 100.6 million.

I also dropped Aguero who has gone down.

So you're more than happy to trade 1.6 points for a .1million rise in team value?

Jax Teller

Am I right saying Mata will be going doing in price tonight ?

Lemlin

S.M.B. wrote: »

So you're more than happy to trade 1.6 points for a .1million rise in team value?

Yes, I am happy to do it at this early stage. I will have 53 points once my transfers go through which is above the 50 I aim for each week. Getting these transfers through may also help me keep my wildcard beyond gameweek 3 when I normally play it.

Each transfer explained:

I wanted to get Michu in before his price went up. I had my eye on him since Manual Man and the lads on here mentioned him earlier in the Summer. I went against starting with him though because I only wanted to start with one new player to the PL, which was Hazard. I saw his performance on Saturday and then heard him discussed yesterday by Guillem Balague and the lads on Sky Sports La Liga programme and they were all amazed at the price he moved for and the club he moved to. Apparently he is on the verge of the national team and was one of the top players, let alone midfielders, in La Liga last season.

I brought in Petric because the only reason I didn't have him was because I didn't trust my gut pre-season. I had him in my team until last Wednesday when I read FF Scout and saw mention that he had hardly been prolific in the past. He's playing up top for a strong Fulham team. I was no fan of Jol at Spurs but he's made Fulham a decent side and I think they'll give United a good game this weekend. Don't get me wrong, United will be there or there abouts come the end of the season but they're still atrocious in central midfield IMO and that soft core is what will hurt them against teams. United are also missing most of their defence and Fulham have players who will make life difficult for them.

In regards to Aguero, that transfer was not planned but his injury forced my hand. I knew the Tevez goal would see the masses transfer him in so I had him in before the game was even over. I've left exactly enough cash free that I can get van Persie or any player who needs to come in, with a max of 2 transfers so its important that I maintain the full team value. If I hung onto Aguero and lost that .1 million, I wouldn't be able to get RVP in if needed.

I'm not in favour of points hits and you'll often see me preaching against them but, every once in a while, they are warranted. The points hit suited me this week so I took it. I'm about 50 or 60 points behind the leaders in most of my leagues. That doesn't trouble me one bit.

As I continually told one user on here last season, it's a race, not a sprint, and it's where you are at the end of GW 38 that matters.

FutureGuy

Coletrickle88 wrote: »

Am I right saying Mata will be going doing in price tonight ?

I was waiting till now to reply but he is 96% for a fall so it looks almost certain he will.

FatRat

I'm taking the opposite approach to yourself Lemlin. I'm going for what I think to be good transfers and saving myself from points hits instead of taking hits and making transfers based on price rises. I can't see how it could be justified. Value is never a big issue in this game imo. I have 4.3 million in the bank and I'm more than happy with my squad (all 15). I remember last year when Siggy and McLean were the ones to have I must have had over 5 million in the bank. And I also remember going on a streak of 70+ points in about 5 consecutive weeks even with such little investment in my team.



I know you made the transfers for more than just the price rises and they could potentially be good transfers, but it looks like pricing is too high up on your priorities and you might end up taking a few hits one week and the players you got in turn out to be flops.

titan18

I agree with Lemlin. I think it can be worthwhile depending on what you're aiming for to take point drops in the first few weeks before things settle in order to increase team value. It could not work, but this year, considering the Chelsea DGW and no game in week 3, I think it's worth it. I wouldn't really want to go into GW 3 with 30m on the bench e.g Torres,Hazard etc if a 4 point drop can replace that with guys like Tevez,Kagawa,Cazorla etc who can easily make up that points drop.

S.M.B.

Agreed.

I took issue with the whole "My 8 point hit is justified so." line. The price rises alone will never justify a points hit.

It's only until those new arrivals put in a good short/medium term stint for you that you can claim that they're actually justified

I don't think they're bad transfers by the way but even Lemlins rationale behind them lacks consistency.

Hogey007

michu now up to 6.8

Ba rose by .1

Hazard or Tevez didn't rise but are certain to increase more tonight.

a few players dropped .1 but most notable are Mata and Aguero (now 11.3)

Thanos

If people keep dropping Aguero and his price goes down to 11.0
he would be a great addition.
Will be watching his price drops with interest......

Lemlin

FatRat wrote: »

I'm taking the opposite approach to yourself Lemlin. I'm going for what I think to be good transfers and saving myself from points hits instead of taking hits and making transfers based on price rises. I can't see how it could be justified. Value is never a big issue in this game imo. I have 4.3 million in the bank and I'm more than happy with my squad (all 15). I remember last year when Siggy and McLean were the ones to have I must have had over 5 million in the bank. And I also remember going on a streak of 70+ points in about 5 consecutive weeks even with such little investment in my team.



I know you made the transfers for more than just the price rises and they could potentially be good transfers, but it looks like pricing is too high up on your priorities and you might end up taking a few hits one week and the players you got in turn out to be flops.

I wouldn't say its an approach I'm taking. I generally wouldn't advocate taking points hits and I could go the entire season now without taking another points hit. However, it suited me to this week so I went for it. By 5 o'clock Saturday, it was pretty clear that I'd be off pace by quite a margin so I went for it. Another few points wasn't going to make a difference anyway and, to be honest, I'm happy with the rest of my team so I wanted Michu and Petric in. I may live to regret bringing Petric in for Graham but I've never been a huge fan of Graham tbh and I never double up on players from a mid table team. I'll gladly double up on a midfielder or striker from a top six club but not from a club like Swansea who just aren't consistent enough IMO. I wanted Michu in so there was space for Graham to go and I think Petric will do well at Fulham. Therefore I said I'd save team value, as both were shoe-ins to rise, and complete the transfers there and then. It was pretty much the same with Tevez as I knew he would rise and Aguero would fall.

I agree with you that value wasn't important towards the end of last year. However, the opposite is often the case I've seen over the years. Most years the top players are more expensive because they get the top scores. It's rare enough that you get players like Siggy and McClean who are top players at budget prices. I always remember a few years back when I delayed transferring Stephen Ireland in to avoid a points hit and ending up missing out on him because his value went up .1 million. If van Persie scores well this weekend and looks like replicating the form of last season, money will become a very important factor again when people start trying to free up 13 million for him. What if Cazorla, Kagawa, Hazard, Michu and Bale are the top midfielders after the weekend or over the next few weeks? Plenty of people are saying that any of those five could have a stormer. That midfield would cost about 42.5 million. Add in van Persie if he explodes, and you've about 55.5 million gone on six players.

I put pricing high on my priority this week because its the start of the game and I hadn't started well so I decided to go for it. My transfers have now produced the following:

Michu - .3 million rise
Petric - .1 million rise
Tevez - .2 million rise according to posts above which say he'll rise tonight.

Aguero - .2 million fall.

That's a net gain of .8 million. So I'm basically trading a point for each .1 million. After gameweek 1, and with 53 points in the bag after my transfers go through, I'm happy to do that. As well as that, I believe I have a strategy now which will allow me to keep my wildcard after gameweek 3 when I normally play it. I have also freed up 2.5 million so I can get van Persie in with just two transfers if really needed.

Lemlin

S.M.B. wrote: »

Agreed.

I took issue with the whole "My 8 point hit is justified so." line. The price rises alone will never justify a points hit.

It's only until those new arrivals put in a good short/medium term stint for you that you can claim that they're actually justified

I don't think they're bad transfers by the way but even Lemlins rationale behind them lacks consistency.

That's your opinion and you're entitled to it. If, however, after several weeks the expensive players are the top scorers, and value becomes a big thing, then I think they will justify it.
As per post above, I've now a net gain of .8 million from my points hit of 8 points. I can get van Persie in with just two transfers (which I couldn't before) and I should be able to save my wildcard further than GW3. I also have Michu going to play West Ham instead of Walters going away to City and Tevez playing Liverpool rather than Aguero sitting on the subs bench.

I've said it a number of times. Points hits don't always suit teams but I think mine has.

It's not the route I always go but I went for it this week and I'm hoping it will work out, whether my rationale is consistent or not. This is the world of FF. It's rarely consistent!

roryc

Lemlin wrote: »

Michu - .3 million rise
Petric - .1 million rise
Tevez - .2 million rise according to posts above which say he'll rise tonight.

Aguero - .2 million fall.

That's a net gain of .8 million. So I'm basically trading a point for each .1 million.

This is wrong.

You had one free transfer and could have brought in Michu. So you have traded 8 points for 0.5m. I don't think this makes the situation much worse, an 8 point hit is wrong here anyway IMO.

Your mistake is swapping Petric for Graham. A 4 point hit was justifiable based on Michu and Aguero. Even at a stretch an 8 point hit could have been justifiable - but not to swap Graham for Petric. I'd put money on Graham outscoring Petric over the next month, and you need Petric to score 1 goal more than him to justify the swap.

Lemlin

roryc wrote: »

This is wrong.

You had one free transfer and could have brought in Michu. So you have traded 8 points for 0.5m. I don't think this makes the situation much worse, an 8 point hit is wrong here anyway IMO.

Your mistake is swapping Petric for Graham. A 4 point hit was justifiable based on Michu and Aguero. Even at a stretch an 8 point hit could have been justifiable - but not to swap Graham for Petric. I'd put money on Graham outscoring Petric over the next month, and you need Petric to score 1 goal more than him to justify the swap.

Yes, I could have brought in Michu for free but, please read the posts above, I said I'm not happy to double up on midfielders/attackers from Swansea. Swansea mix superb results with the mundane. They're a typical mid table team. They won 5-0 last weekend but could just as easily go to West Ham tomorrow and lose. Last season they lost 4-2 to Blackburn for example. Therefore Graham had to go with Michu coming in.

I could just as easily say that Petric to Graham was my free transfer and Michu and Tevez were my second and third transfers. That changes the calculations again. Tevez is worth 0.4 net gain and Michu 0.3 net gain so I'm back to 0.7 gain for 8 points. This game is all about how you look at things.

I look at my whole team when I make transfers like this. The three transfers were right for my team. Different people have different tactics and systems of working in this game. I've explained mine and the rationale behind it above and in other posts. I will rarely have more than one midfielder/attacker from a team like Norwich, Villa, Swansea, West Ham. In fact, I'd go so far as saying that I will rarely have two players in my squad from those teams. Mid table teams are too unpredictable to put all your eggs in one basket so I like to spread the risk.

One thing is for sure, I wouldn't label anyone's opinion as "wrong". What works for one, may not work for another. My system has worked in previous years like last year so I'll stick to it. If you don't value it, there's no need to entertain it. Others might and that's why I posted it.

andy125

Will Dyer go up tonight anyone know?

roryc

Lemlin wrote: »

One thing is for sure, I wouldn't label anyone's opinion as "wrong". What works for one, may not work for another. My system has worked in previous years like last year so I'll stick to it. If you don't value it, there's no need to entertain it. Others might and that's why I posted it.

I didn't say your opinion was wrong. Your calculations were wrong. I wouldn't have even bothered replying but that it was such an obvious error. It was not 0.8m for 8 points, no matter what way you look at it.

If you think taking an 8 point hit is warranted then go ahead. I disagree with your reasoning that having two attacking players from one club is wrong but not bothered debating it. Like I said, I only replied because your calculations were wrong.

Lemlin

roryc wrote: »

Lemlin wrote: »

One thing is for sure, I wouldn't label anyone's opinion as "wrong". What works for one, may not work for another. My system has worked in previous years like last year so I'll stick to it. If you don't value it, there's no need to entertain it. Others might and that's why I posted it.

I didn't say your opinion was wrong. Your calculations were wrong. I wouldn't have even bothered replying but that it was such an obvious error. It was not 0.8m for 8 points, no matter what way you look at it.

If you think taking an 8 point hit is warranted then go ahead. I disagree with your reasoning that having two attacking players from one club is wrong but not bothered debating it. Like I said, I only replied because your calculations were wrong.

I made 3 transfers. The transfers cost me 8 points. The 3 transfers have resulted in a net gain of .8 million to my team.

That's the way I look at it and I don't see how it's wrong.

8 point hit = team value of 100.8 million.

There's it in an equation!

Also, I said two attacking players from a "mid table club". I have two Chelsea myself but they are top six. I categorise them as different to mid table.