Price Rises & Price Trends

roryc · 22-08-2012 10:22pm

Although if Mata looks set to drop it may be worth getting rid of him...

Hogey007 · 23-08-2012 7:12am

hazard, petric, ivanovic, dyer & Fellaini all gone up .1

Tevez joins Michu in going up .2 for the week.

bendtner drops .1

SlickRic · 23-08-2012 11:06am

Fellaini?

fúcking hell.

good luck to those who have him when he's a holding midfielder next week.

Lemlin · 23-08-2012 1:05pm

Hogey007 wrote: »

hazard, petric, ivanovic, dyer & Fellaini all gone up .1

Tevez joins Michu in going up .2 for the week.

bendtner drops .1

My 8 point hit is justified so. The lads I've brought in (Tevez, Michu and Petric) have gone up .5 million combined.

Add that to Hazard who I had and my team value is now 100.6 million.

I also dropped Aguero who has gone down.

S.M.B. · 23-08-2012 1:44pm

Lemlin wrote: »

My 8 point hit is justified so. The lads I've brought in (Tevez, Michu and Petric) have gone up .5 million combined.

Add that to Hazard who I had and my team value is now 100.6 million.

I also dropped Aguero who has gone down.

So you're more than happy to trade 1.6 points for a .1million rise in team value?

Jax Teller · 23-08-2012 1:54pm

Am I right saying Mata will be going doing in price tonight ?

Lemlin · 23-08-2012 4:36pm

S.M.B. wrote: »

So you're more than happy to trade 1.6 points for a .1million rise in team value?

Yes, I am happy to do it at this early stage. I will have 53 points once my transfers go through which is above the 50 I aim for each week. Getting these transfers through may also help me keep my wildcard beyond gameweek 3 when I normally play it.

Each transfer explained:

I wanted to get Michu in before his price went up. I had my eye on him since Manual Man and the lads on here mentioned him earlier in the Summer. I went against starting with him though because I only wanted to start with one new player to the PL, which was Hazard. I saw his performance on Saturday and then heard him discussed yesterday by Guillem Balague and the lads on Sky Sports La Liga programme and they were all amazed at the price he moved for and the club he moved to. Apparently he is on the verge of the national team and was one of the top players, let alone midfielders, in La Liga last season.

I brought in Petric because the only reason I didn't have him was because I didn't trust my gut pre-season. I had him in my team until last Wednesday when I read FF Scout and saw mention that he had hardly been prolific in the past. He's playing up top for a strong Fulham team. I was no fan of Jol at Spurs but he's made Fulham a decent side and I think they'll give United a good game this weekend. Don't get me wrong, United will be there or there abouts come the end of the season but they're still atrocious in central midfield IMO and that soft core is what will hurt them against teams. United are also missing most of their defence and Fulham have players who will make life difficult for them.

In regards to Aguero, that transfer was not planned but his injury forced my hand. I knew the Tevez goal would see the masses transfer him in so I had him in before the game was even over. I've left exactly enough cash free that I can get van Persie or any player who needs to come in, with a max of 2 transfers so its important that I maintain the full team value. If I hung onto Aguero and lost that .1 million, I wouldn't be able to get RVP in if needed.

I'm not in favour of points hits and you'll often see me preaching against them but, every once in a while, they are warranted. The points hit suited me this week so I took it. I'm about 50 or 60 points behind the leaders in most of my leagues. That doesn't trouble me one bit.

As I continually told one user on here last season, it's a race, not a sprint, and it's where you are at the end of GW 38 that matters.

FutureGuy · 23-08-2012 10:36pm

Coletrickle88 wrote: »

Am I right saying Mata will be going doing in price tonight ?

I was waiting till now to reply but he is 96% for a fall so it looks almost certain he will.

FatRat · 23-08-2012 11:29pm

I'm taking the opposite approach to yourself Lemlin. I'm going for what I think to be good transfers and saving myself from points hits instead of taking hits and making transfers based on price rises. I can't see how it could be justified. Value is never a big issue in this game imo. I have 4.3 million in the bank and I'm more than happy with my squad (all 15). I remember last year when Siggy and McLean were the ones to have I must have had over 5 million in the bank. And I also remember going on a streak of 70+ points in about 5 consecutive weeks even with such little investment in my team.

I know you made the transfers for more than just the price rises and they could potentially be good transfers, but it looks like pricing is too high up on your priorities and you might end up taking a few hits one week and the players you got in turn out to be flops.

titan18 · 23-08-2012 11:59pm

I agree with Lemlin. I think it can be worthwhile depending on what you're aiming for to take point drops in the first few weeks before things settle in order to increase team value. It could not work, but this year, considering the Chelsea DGW and no game in week 3, I think it's worth it. I wouldn't really want to go into GW 3 with 30m on the bench e.g Torres,Hazard etc if a 4 point drop can replace that with guys like Tevez,Kagawa,Cazorla etc who can easily make up that points drop.

S.M.B. · 24-08-2012 12:03am

Agreed.

I took issue with the whole "My 8 point hit is justified so." line. The price rises alone will never justify a points hit.

It's only until those new arrivals put in a good short/medium term stint for you that you can claim that they're actually justified

I don't think they're bad transfers by the way but even Lemlins rationale behind them lacks consistency.

Hogey007 · 24-08-2012 8:32am

michu now up to 6.8

Ba rose by .1

Hazard or Tevez didn't rise but are certain to increase more tonight.

a few players dropped .1 but most notable are Mata and Aguero (now 11.3)

Thanos · 24-08-2012 8:50am

If people keep dropping Aguero and his price goes down to 11.0
he would be a great addition.
Will be watching his price drops with interest......

Lemlin · 24-08-2012 10:33am

FatRat wrote: »

I'm taking the opposite approach to yourself Lemlin. I'm going for what I think to be good transfers and saving myself from points hits instead of taking hits and making transfers based on price rises. I can't see how it could be justified. Value is never a big issue in this game imo. I have 4.3 million in the bank and I'm more than happy with my squad (all 15). I remember last year when Siggy and McLean were the ones to have I must have had over 5 million in the bank. And I also remember going on a streak of 70+ points in about 5 consecutive weeks even with such little investment in my team.

I know you made the transfers for more than just the price rises and they could potentially be good transfers, but it looks like pricing is too high up on your priorities and you might end up taking a few hits one week and the players you got in turn out to be flops.

I wouldn't say its an approach I'm taking. I generally wouldn't advocate taking points hits and I could go the entire season now without taking another points hit. However, it suited me to this week so I went for it. By 5 o'clock Saturday, it was pretty clear that I'd be off pace by quite a margin so I went for it. Another few points wasn't going to make a difference anyway and, to be honest, I'm happy with the rest of my team so I wanted Michu and Petric in. I may live to regret bringing Petric in for Graham but I've never been a huge fan of Graham tbh and I never double up on players from a mid table team. I'll gladly double up on a midfielder or striker from a top six club but not from a club like Swansea who just aren't consistent enough IMO. I wanted Michu in so there was space for Graham to go and I think Petric will do well at Fulham. Therefore I said I'd save team value, as both were shoe-ins to rise, and complete the transfers there and then. It was pretty much the same with Tevez as I knew he would rise and Aguero would fall.

I agree with you that value wasn't important towards the end of last year. However, the opposite is often the case I've seen over the years. Most years the top players are more expensive because they get the top scores. It's rare enough that you get players like Siggy and McClean who are top players at budget prices. I always remember a few years back when I delayed transferring Stephen Ireland in to avoid a points hit and ending up missing out on him because his value went up .1 million. If van Persie scores well this weekend and looks like replicating the form of last season, money will become a very important factor again when people start trying to free up 13 million for him. What if Cazorla, Kagawa, Hazard, Michu and Bale are the top midfielders after the weekend or over the next few weeks? Plenty of people are saying that any of those five could have a stormer. That midfield would cost about 42.5 million. Add in van Persie if he explodes, and you've about 55.5 million gone on six players.

I put pricing high on my priority this week because its the start of the game and I hadn't started well so I decided to go for it. My transfers have now produced the following:

Michu - .3 million rise
Petric - .1 million rise
Tevez - .2 million rise according to posts above which say he'll rise tonight.

Aguero - .2 million fall.

That's a net gain of .8 million. So I'm basically trading a point for each .1 million. After gameweek 1, and with 53 points in the bag after my transfers go through, I'm happy to do that. As well as that, I believe I have a strategy now which will allow me to keep my wildcard after gameweek 3 when I normally play it. I have also freed up 2.5 million so I can get van Persie in with just two transfers if really needed.

Lemlin · 24-08-2012 10:38am

S.M.B. wrote: »

Agreed.

I took issue with the whole "My 8 point hit is justified so." line. The price rises alone will never justify a points hit.

It's only until those new arrivals put in a good short/medium term stint for you that you can claim that they're actually justified

I don't think they're bad transfers by the way but even Lemlins rationale behind them lacks consistency.

That's your opinion and you're entitled to it. If, however, after several weeks the expensive players are the top scorers, and value becomes a big thing, then I think they will justify it.
As per post above, I've now a net gain of .8 million from my points hit of 8 points. I can get van Persie in with just two transfers (which I couldn't before) and I should be able to save my wildcard further than GW3. I also have Michu going to play West Ham instead of Walters going away to City and Tevez playing Liverpool rather than Aguero sitting on the subs bench.

I've said it a number of times. Points hits don't always suit teams but I think mine has.

It's not the route I always go but I went for it this week and I'm hoping it will work out, whether my rationale is consistent or not. This is the world of FF. It's rarely consistent!

roryc · 24-08-2012 11:01am

Lemlin wrote: »

Michu - .3 million rise
Petric - .1 million rise
Tevez - .2 million rise according to posts above which say he'll rise tonight.

Aguero - .2 million fall.

That's a net gain of .8 million. So I'm basically trading a point for each .1 million.

This is wrong.

You had one free transfer and could have brought in Michu. So you have traded 8 points for 0.5m. I don't think this makes the situation much worse, an 8 point hit is wrong here anyway IMO.

Your mistake is swapping Petric for Graham. A 4 point hit was justifiable based on Michu and Aguero. Even at a stretch an 8 point hit could have been justifiable - but not to swap Graham for Petric. I'd put money on Graham outscoring Petric over the next month, and you need Petric to score 1 goal more than him to justify the swap.

Lemlin · 24-08-2012 1:31pm

roryc wrote: »

This is wrong.

You had one free transfer and could have brought in Michu. So you have traded 8 points for 0.5m. I don't think this makes the situation much worse, an 8 point hit is wrong here anyway IMO.

Your mistake is swapping Petric for Graham. A 4 point hit was justifiable based on Michu and Aguero. Even at a stretch an 8 point hit could have been justifiable - but not to swap Graham for Petric. I'd put money on Graham outscoring Petric over the next month, and you need Petric to score 1 goal more than him to justify the swap.

Yes, I could have brought in Michu for free but, please read the posts above, I said I'm not happy to double up on midfielders/attackers from Swansea. Swansea mix superb results with the mundane. They're a typical mid table team. They won 5-0 last weekend but could just as easily go to West Ham tomorrow and lose. Last season they lost 4-2 to Blackburn for example. Therefore Graham had to go with Michu coming in.

I could just as easily say that Petric to Graham was my free transfer and Michu and Tevez were my second and third transfers. That changes the calculations again. Tevez is worth 0.4 net gain and Michu 0.3 net gain so I'm back to 0.7 gain for 8 points. This game is all about how you look at things.

I look at my whole team when I make transfers like this. The three transfers were right for my team. Different people have different tactics and systems of working in this game. I've explained mine and the rationale behind it above and in other posts. I will rarely have more than one midfielder/attacker from a team like Norwich, Villa, Swansea, West Ham. In fact, I'd go so far as saying that I will rarely have two players in my squad from those teams. Mid table teams are too unpredictable to put all your eggs in one basket so I like to spread the risk.

One thing is for sure, I wouldn't label anyone's opinion as "wrong". What works for one, may not work for another. My system has worked in previous years like last year so I'll stick to it. If you don't value it, there's no need to entertain it. Others might and that's why I posted it.

andy125 · 24-08-2012 1:52pm

Will Dyer go up tonight anyone know?

roryc · 24-08-2012 2:12pm

Lemlin wrote: »

One thing is for sure, I wouldn't label anyone's opinion as "wrong". What works for one, may not work for another. My system has worked in previous years like last year so I'll stick to it. If you don't value it, there's no need to entertain it. Others might and that's why I posted it.

I didn't say your opinion was wrong. Your calculations were wrong. I wouldn't have even bothered replying but that it was such an obvious error. It was not 0.8m for 8 points, no matter what way you look at it.

If you think taking an 8 point hit is warranted then go ahead. I disagree with your reasoning that having two attacking players from one club is wrong but not bothered debating it. Like I said, I only replied because your calculations were wrong.

Lemlin · 24-08-2012 2:22pm

roryc wrote: »

Lemlin wrote: »

One thing is for sure, I wouldn't label anyone's opinion as "wrong". What works for one, may not work for another. My system has worked in previous years like last year so I'll stick to it. If you don't value it, there's no need to entertain it. Others might and that's why I posted it.

I didn't say your opinion was wrong. Your calculations were wrong. I wouldn't have even bothered replying but that it was such an obvious error. It was not 0.8m for 8 points, no matter what way you look at it.

If you think taking an 8 point hit is warranted then go ahead. I disagree with your reasoning that having two attacking players from one club is wrong but not bothered debating it. Like I said, I only replied because your calculations were wrong.

I made 3 transfers. The transfers cost me 8 points. The 3 transfers have resulted in a net gain of .8 million to my team.

That's the way I look at it and I don't see how it's wrong.

8 point hit = team value of 100.8 million.

There's it in an equation!

Also, I said two attacking players from a "mid table club". I have two Chelsea myself but they are top six. I categorise them as different to mid table.

Thanos · 24-08-2012 3:30pm

andy125 wrote: »

Will Dyer go up tonight anyone know?

Does not look like it at the moment. Unless we get a rush of people changing their team this evening..........

Hogey007 · 24-08-2012 4:05pm

andy125 wrote: »

Will Dyer go up tonight anyone know?

according to this he's 85% of the way to a price rise. keep an eye on it because you could get a lot of people doing their transfers this evening after they've got all today's team news.
with him at home to west ham and after his points return last week i think he'll probably get that 15% more transfers in.

http://development.totalfpl.com/pricechanges

Paully D · 25-08-2012 12:37am

Never even noticed Mata went down in price until I just logged in. My own fault really for not keeping up to date but that is a pain in the bollocks. :mad:

Hogey007 · 25-08-2012 8:50am

tevez up to 9.3 now
hazard up to 9.7
dyer up to 5.7

lots of players have dropped .1
Jose enrique being one of them, hopefully he might have dropped another little bit by the time liverpool's tough start is over.

Defoe and Adebayor both look set to rise .1 tonight.
Rooney's transfers in rising a lot quicker too.

G1032 · 25-08-2012 12:40pm

Lemlin wrote: »

I made 3 transfers. The transfers cost me 8 points. The 3 transfers have resulted in a net gain of .8 million to my team.

That's the way I look at it and I don't see how it's wrong.

8 point hit = team value of 100.8 million.

There's it in an equation!

Also, I said two attacking players from a "mid table club". I have two Chelsea myself but they are top six. I categorise them as different to mid table.

Lemlin wrote: »

That's a net gain of .8 million. So I'm basically trading a point for each .1 million.

roryc wrote: »

This is wrong.

You had one free transfer and could have brought in Michu. So you have traded 8 points for 0.5m. I don't think this makes the situation much worse, an 8 point hit is wrong here anyway IMO.

Not that it ulitmately matters but roryc is correct.
You're not trading a point for each 0.1 rise..............

You've traded 8 points for a 0.5 million rise.
Michu could have been transferred in for free. Thats a zero point hit for a 0.3 rise.
You've then made a further 2 transfers at a cost of 8 points for a further 0.5 million rise.