TS / Hurricane Isaac

maquiladora

Thought some of you might like this, I think it's fantastic.

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/

The GOES-14 weather satellite has been taken out of stand-by/storage mode and is taking rapid scans of Isaac every minute with 1km resolution.

One frame per minute and it is literally up to the minute! If you use the zoom feature and click in you can see fantastic smooth detail of the convention and cloud movements.

You can also choose water vapor/IR and change increase/decrease the number of frames in the loop in the options below.

tylercollins

I love this guys determination!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5-vgQDld1E

Can we please not use this young man as a source of entertainment.

M.T. Cranium

Isaac now well into radar range from Key West, FL

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=byx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

(if looking in after midnight, go to "long range reflectivity" for a wider view and eventually choose other radar sites using the directional arrows, although for some time later Monday it may be out of all radar ranges in the east-central Gulf of Mexico.

My landfall prediction at this point would be eastern MS near Biloxi with a strong storm surge into Mobile Bay (Wed 1200 UTC or 0700h CDT local time).

maquiladora

The HWRF model just doesn't want to let up.

This would be on 7 years to the day that Katrina was bearing down on the Gulf Coast.

929 hPa



I think this model is overdoing it, but it's only a couple of days from now....

Latest ECM has it further east down to 950 on this chart, which in reality would probably be lower.



Edit : Looking on the Wundermap version of the ECM, it's down to 944 just off the coast from Pensacola.

Iancar29

Interesting Blog post ...

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/isaac-turns-to-new-orleans-are-levees-ready/71023


EDIT :JUST NOW , New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu declares a State of Emergency for the city as Isaac moves into the Gulf.

Harps

Still plenty of spread in track and intensity between models, worst case scenario seems to be the HWRF model which has it as a cat 4 hurricane aimed directly at New Orleans.

SnowDrifts

The 5pm NHC advisory seemed to delay the classification as a hurricane to Monday night which is surprising.

Min

À powerful Cat 2 hurricane is the prediction right now, but we have seen in the past how the NHC has underestimated the strength of the hurricanes once they enter the gulf.
My own prediction is it will bomb and become far more powerful than a Cat 2.

SnowDrifts

Seems to be building

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~rabin/goes14/loop_srso.html

sirpsycho

Wow, large cyclone!

sirpsycho

ps. Great link for the latest tracks and intensity forecasts. Not sure if anyone else posted recently:

http://ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2012/al092012/

maquiladora

Latest recon has found pressure is down to 989, but there has been no increase in windspeed. Isaac just doesn't seem to be able to pull it together. The official forecast track is bad for New Orleans, but the intensity forecast has been downgraded to just a 90 mph Cat 1.

ninebeanrows

maquiladora wrote: »

Latest recon has found pressure is down to 989, but there has been no increase in windspeed. Isaac just doesn't seem to be able to pull it together. The official forecast track is bad for New Orleans, but the intensity forecast has been downgraded to just a 90 mph Cat 1.

I don't know, this still has upto 48hours of brewing time.

I think it is going to explode to life in the coming hours.

It's looking quite well on satellite imagery at the moment.

maquiladora

Recon flight says an eye is trying to form now. Should have visible sat soon as dawn breaks there.

Rikand

Eyewall replacement the cause of it looking a little disorganised mayhaps. Still expect this to gain significant strength

sirpsycho

edit: Opps, old image. No updated one yet.

No eye visible yet.

only one

Eye see what ye mean

maquiladora

Still 65mph. Pressure down to 988.

Recon saying that clouds and radar (on their plane) show an eye forming.

It's not an eyewall replacement because this thing has never had an eye yet. Still a tropical storm.

12:56 image : http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/goes-14/2012/08/27/11/goes14_1_2012_240_1156.jpg

Microwave :

sirpsycho

They updated their microwave images now.

Appears to be something forming in the bottom left image?

sirpsycho

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 13:03Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 25
Observation Number: 13
A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 12:31:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°50'N 84°52'W (25.8333N 84.8667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 195 miles (313 km) to the WSW (254°) from Fort Myers, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,342m (4,403ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 54kts (~ 62.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 61 nautical miles (70 statute miles) to the SE (140°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 199° at 40kts (From the SSW at ~ 46.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 94 nautical miles (108 statute miles) to the SE (130°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 989mb (29.21 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19°C (66°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open, 09-24, RAGGED
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 22°C (72°F) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the SSE (158°) from the flight level center

maquiladora

Thats the eyewall trying to form. It's open and fairly wide.

Highest winds recon have found was a single reading of 65.5mph. Pressure still at 988.

It's really struggling to develop even though its in prime location. Every model said it should have been stronger than it is now back when it was approaching Florida. Intensification is so hard to predict.

maquiladora

1:00 PM CDT Mon Aug 27
Location: 26.1°N 85.9°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 984 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

Still no increase in windspeed. New recon mission has just started.

SnowDrifts

maquiladora wrote: »

1:00 PM CDT Mon Aug 27
Location: 26.1°N 85.9°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 984 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

Still no increase in windspeed. New recon mission has just started.

I really dont know how the windspeed is still only 65mph. Water temps are mid 80's F which I thought would have fueled it.

maquiladora

Recon is starting to find stronger winds now. May be a hurricane on the next advisory. We'll see.

Sponge Bob

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/271759.shtml

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

---

LOCATION...26.1N 85.9W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

maquiladora

SnowDrifts wrote: »

I really dont know how the windspeed is still only 65mph. Water temps are mid 80's F which I thought would have fueled it.

It's had problems with it's structure, there has been dry air hindering it on the eastern side and it has a large windfield that makes it hard for the windspeed to catch up with pressure drops.

M.T. Cranium

Seems like a case of a strong enough storm to overcome 2-3 days of significant land interaction but that kept it weak and disorganized until today. Appears to be intensifying fairly readily and would expect cat-2 intensity by mid-day Tuesday possibly sustained to landfall in MS. Models have had quite a spread but it seems to be heading for MS rather than LA, good news for New Orleans, bad news for Biloxi and Mobile, but intensity should be sub-catastrophic, would expect some significant storm surge into Mobile Bay Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

Expect cat-1 status update at the 21z advisory.

maquiladora

Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 64kts (~ 73.6mph)

Fairly confident we will finally have Hurricane Isaac at 10pm, or maybe even a special advisory before then.

maquiladora

Hmmm recon hasn't found hurricane winds in the sector where winds should be the strongest.

Edit: Pressure reading of 982 now but may be a little lower as it wasn't in the dead center.