TS / Hurricane Isaac

maquiladora

Still no hurricane on the new advisory!

70mph 981mb.

maquiladora

No change, still a tropical storm. Dry air has had a grip on his east side all day.

7:00 PM CDT Mon Aug 27
Location: 26.7°N 86.5°W
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 981 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

maquiladora

10:00 PM CDT Mon Aug 27
Location: 27.1°N 87.0°W
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 979 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

Still a Tropical Storm.

Slight pressure drop but recon just can't find one hurricane wind reading. Dry air just keeps getting drawn into the center and cancelling out any attempts to gain strength.

Coastal flooding will still be a big danger with this even if it doesn't manage to get much stronger.

sirpsycho

Still very unorganised but starting to look more dangerous:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rb.html


Latest microwaves:

maquiladora

977mb, flight level winds of 90mph, but still surface winds only tropical storm force.

It's a good job that he has been essentially stuck in that same gear intensity wise, because he has slowed right down now and is wobbling. If he had been a rapidly intensifying hurricane right now, like the models wanted to show, then this would have been dangerous.

Redsunset

maquiladora

Joe Bastardi is having a meltdown on twitter about Isaac.

We have an eye, we have 977, we have 78 kt flt level winds, it August, there has never been a pressure this low in this area in Aug as ts

Redsunset

976Mb moving NW at 7mph.

This slowing down of forward speed can give it the time it needs to brew properly.

maquiladora

Dropsonde just found 81 mph surface winds.

SnowDrifts

maquiladora wrote: »

Dropsonde just found 81 mph surface winds.

Just saw that over on storm2k.... Wonder will the NHC update this to hurricane status before the next due advisory?

Redsunset

Hurricane force surface wind found finally.

maquiladora

SnowDrifts wrote: »

Just saw that over on storm2k.... Wonder will the NHC update this to hurricane status before the next due advisory?

They might do, they've done that in the past. Wouldn't be surprised if they waited for a little more recon either though.

maquiladora

Just when it looked like it was about to strengthen, it looks like another big injection of dry air getting into the center again.

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/index.php?action=view_animation&req_method=nframes_enddate&enddate=20120828&endtime=1338&nframes=15&band=3&res=4&aniwidth=null&aniheight=null

Redsunset

Looking more defined than this morning.

maquiladora

I think, this time, finally, really,

maybe

we have a hurricane.

76mph surface SFMR.
Flight level winds over 105mph.

Su Campu

SnowDrifts wrote: »

Just saw that over on storm2k.... Wonder will the NHC update this to hurricane status before the next due advisory?

Where are the reports of hurricane surface winds coming from? The NHC still has it as a Tropical storm. The 81 mph surface wind was not measured but extrapolated from flight level winds, but it was not accurate.

Latest discussion

REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DECREASED TO ABOUT 976 MB SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IT HAS LEVELED OFF OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THE MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OBSERVED HAS BEEN 89 KT...
WHICH EQUATES TO A SURFACE WIND OF ABOUT 71 KT. HOWEVER...
BIAS-ADJUSTED SFMR SURFACE WINDS HAVE ONLY BEEN AROUND 60-62 KT...
WHICH CORRELATES WELL WITH DROPSONDE BOUNDARY LAYER-DERIVED SURFACE
WINDS. AS SUCH...THE INTENSITY OF ISAAC IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 60
KT...WHICH IS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STATUS.

maquiladora

000
WTNT64 KNHC 281618
TCUAT4

HURRICANE ISAAC TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1120 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012

...RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE ISAAC FINALLY ACHIEVES HURRICANE
STATUS...

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC HAVE INCREASED
TO 75 MPH...120 KM/H. ON THIS BASIS...ISAAC IS BEING UPGRADED TO
A HURRICANE.

SUMMARY OF 1120 AM CDT...1620 UTC...INFORMATION

---

LOCATION...28.1N 88.6W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 160 MI...250 KM SE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN

Su Campu

Where did you find the dropsonde data though?

maquiladora

Su Campu wrote: »

Where did you find the dropsonde data though?

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/archive/access.cgi?year=2012&storm=Isaac&product=UZNT13&who=NOAA&mission=30&show=08-28-1225-20-988-81-70

M.T. Cranium

Latest radar from New Orleans now showing the eye circulation:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=LIX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Slow and erratic northwest drift likely all day, oil platforms to north of the centre have been reporting steady 60-70 knot winds (at elevated points) all night and water must be piling up in the region around the entrance to Lake Pontchartrain. Winds in this region will slowly veer to southeast 70-100 mph and stay in that range for almost two days, so this is cumulatively a more powerful storm than the average TS - cat-1 type of landfalling Gulf storm. Also the full moon is on Friday (14z) which is going to make storm surge issues more intense by tomorrow.

Another concern is the potential for 300-500 mm (12-20 inches) of rain with this slow-moving storm, which is only recently managing to surround its core with moisture. The radar will probably intensify considerably during the day. By about 2100z readers using the radar link can switch the setting from "long range" (where it is now) to "short range -- composite" and run the loop for animation. At the present time the full eye is not depicted on that shorter range view although the northwest part of the eye is on that setting.

djhaxman

Live streaming of the storm

http://live.tvnweather.com/

munsterlegend

djhaxman wrote: »

Live streaming of the storm

http://live.tvnweather.com/

For anyone with filmon app there is a weather tv station called weather nation which has all the latest. Wind speeds of over 100mh have been recorded by recon aircraft. They say it could reach a Category 2.

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

For anyone with filmon app there is a weather tv station called weather nation which has all the latest. Wind speeds of over 100mh have been recorded by recon aircraft. They say it could reach a Category 2.

Those winds weren't recorded at the surface though. Considering how long it took to get from 70 to 75, I wouldn't expect it to get over 90 before landfall. Running out of time and water unless it really slows way down and starts wobbling more west.

Iancar29

http://www.justin.tv/national_news2#/w/3690779568/3 2 feet surge already

SnowDrifts

The latest NHC advisory has the windspeed up to 80mph and it has directional speed down to 8mph NW.

K_1

Iancar29 wrote: »

http://www.justin.tv/national_news2#/w/3690779568/3 2 feet surge already

Is it really appropriate to follow that comment with a smiley face given what happened with the last major to hurricane hit New Orleans?

notnumber

K_1 wrote: »

Is it really appropriate to follow that comment with a smiley face given what happened with the last major to hurricane hit New Orleans?

Are you for real? what fcuking difference does posting a smiley make? Dont see you posting any info?

K_1

notnumber wrote: »

Are you for real? what fcuking difference does posting a smiley make? Dont see you posting any info?

It implies that the poster is happy that there is an impending disaster on the gulf coast, which is pretty unacceptable IMO.

As for your other point, posting information isn't a prerequisite for having an account here or contributing otherwise towards threads.

edit: The poster has since removed it.

notnumber

K_1 wrote: »

It implies that the poster is happy that there is an impending disaster on the gulf coast, which is pretty unacceptable IMO.

As for your other point, posting information isn't a prerequisite for having an account here or contributing otherwise towards threads.

edit: The poster has since removed it.

Yeah well neither is questioning a regular posters motives or morals..no-one wants destruction or death but this is gods gig we just observe.

As for your other point, posting information isn't a prerequisite for having an account here or contributing otherwise towards threads.

Thats true but your post was well out of line and imo not constructive at all.
Now can we go back to the weather!

maquiladora

Dropsonde has found pressure down to 971mb