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September 2012 Boards forecast contest

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    #32
    Strasser
    Registered Users Posts: 240 ✭✭Strasser


    14.1 ... 24.9 ... -0.1 ... 85 ... 109 ... 36

    Sorry about being late, I know there will be a penalty.


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    #33
    jambofc
    Registered Users Posts: 1,523 ✭✭✭jambofc


    13.8 ... 24.9 ... -1.0 ... 095 ... 120 ... 55


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    #34
    Rikand
    Registered Users Posts: 20,362 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    13.5 ...... 24.5 ...... -1.0 ...... 100 ...... 120 ...... 45kt


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    #35
    okla
    Registered Users Posts: 206 ✭✭okla


    13.8...23.7...2.1...90...95...45kts


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    #36
    John mac
    Registered Users Posts: 5,121 ✭✭✭John mac


    12.8 .... 24.3 ....2.8 .... 110.... 89 .... 65


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    #37
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,513 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Penalties for entries made today (up to 0300h Monday) are relatively slight, you just lose 10% of points scored if you exceed 60, and the penalty can't bring you below 60, so it really bites into scores above 65.

    Entries made on Monday will be penalized a bit more severely, the same concept applies but the penalty begins at 50.


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    #38
    Rocky Bay
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 276 ✭✭Rocky Bay


    13.7 ...25.9 ...2.5 ...081 ...131 ...71kts


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    #39
    rameire
    Registered Users Posts: 4,164 ✭✭✭rameire


    13.6 .... 23.2 .... 4.0 .... 90 .... 110 .... 40

    As usual I am late. And nearly too late.

    🌞 3.8kwp, 🌞 Split 2.28S, 1.52E. 🌞 Clonee, Dub.🌞



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    #40
    lostinashford
    Registered Users Posts: 721 ✭✭✭lostinashford


    12.7 ... 23.1 ... 2.4 ... 90 ... 110 ... 43KT


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    #41
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,134 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    Apologies for the delay..

    13.5 ... 22.5 ... -0.5 ... 85 ... 115 ... 32KT


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    #42
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,513 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    September 2012 forecasts
    _____________________________________

    Forecaster .................. IMT ... MAX ... MIN ... PRC ... SUN ... Max Gust

    Joe Public ................ 14.4 ... 24.9 ... 2.9 ... 069 ... 139 ... 55
    Strasser* ................ 14.1 ... 24.9 .. -0.1 ... 085 ... 109 ... 36
    waterways .............. 14.0 ... 22.3 ... 0.0 ... 080 ... 125 ... 50
    SeaFields ................ 14.0 ... 25.5 ... 2.0 ... 060 ... 120 ... 50
    waterways .............. 14.0 ... 22.3 ... 0.0 ... 080 ... 125 ... 50
    Danno .................... 14.0 ... 24.4 .. -0.7 ... 070 ... 140 ... 48
    MiNdGaM3 ............... 14.0 ... 24.2 .. -0.1 ... 080 ... 122 ... 40
    200motels ............... 13.9 ... 27.8 ... 2.9 ... 063 ... 140 ... 49
    Tae laidir ................ 13.9 ... 22.2 ... 0.9 ... 081 ... 138 ... 51
    dacogawa ............... 13.9 ... 24.4 .. -0.9 ... 100 ... 120 ... 64
    homolumo ............... 13.8 ... 23.3 ... 2.4 ... 095 ... 104 ... 53
    Lumi ...................... 13.8 ... 22.9 ... 0.0 ... 089 ... 101 ... 55
    okla* ..................... 13.8 ... 23.7 ... 2.1 ... 090 ... 095 ... 45
    jambofc* ................ 13.8 ... 24.9 .. -1.0 ... 095 ... 120 ... 55
    nilhg ....................... 13.8 ... 25.1 .. -1.0 ... 061 ... 110 ... 45
    catch.23 ................. 13.8 ... 22.0 ... 2.0 ... 120 ... 095 ... 55
    Hammer Archer ......... 13.7 ... 22.5 .. -0.5 ... 080 ... 110 ... 50
    Sponge Bob ..,.......... 13.7 ... 24.1 ... 2.1 ... 086 ... 102 ... 64
    Rocky Bay* ............. 13.7 ... 25.9 ... 2.5 ... 081 ... 131 ... 71
    kindredspirit ............. 13.7 ... 25.0 ... 2.0 ... 080 ... 110 ... 50

    Con Sensus .............. 13.7 ... 23.9 ... 0.5 ... 090 ... 110 ... 52

    rameire* ................. 13.6 ... 23.2 ... 4.0 ... 090 ... 110 ... 40
    Jerry Seinfeld ........... 13.6 ... 23.2 ... 0.0 ... 080 ... 120 ... 57
    M.T. Cranium ........... 13.6 ... 25.8 .. -2.5 ... 080 ... 130 ... 61
    delw ....................... 13.6 ... 25.4 ... 1.5 ... 090 ... 098 ... 49
    jd .......................... 13.6 ... 23.9 .. -0.8 ... 118 ... 103 ... 57
    Bsal ....................... 13.5 ... 21.9 .. -0.4 ... 121 ... 105 ... 59
    cherryghost** ......... 13.5 ... 22.5 .. -0.5 ... 085 ... 115 ... 32
    Rickylovesuall* ......... 13.5 ... 24.5 .. -1.0 ... 100 ... 120 ... 45
    Iancar29 ................. 13.5 ... 26.3 .. -3.0 ... 080 ... 130 ... 60
    Harps ..................... 13.5 ... 24.1 .. -0.6 ... 130 ... 100 ... 51
    mickger844posts ...... 13.5 ... 23.8 ... 2.4 ... 090 ... 124 ... 44
    traecy1 .................. 13.5 ... 25.5 ... 4.5 ... 100 ... 110 ... 55
    pauldry ................... 13.4 ... 22.2 ... 2.9 ... 115 ... 089 ... 61
    DOCARCH ................ 13.4 ... 21.7 .. -0.6 ... 096 ... 105 ... 56
    dasa29 ................... 13.3 ... 23.5 .. -1.0 ... 130 ... 090 ... 65
    snowstreams ........... 13.3 ... 23.8 .. -0.3 ... 103 ... 110 ... 51
    H2UMrsRobinson ....... 13.2 ... 23.0 ... 3.2 ... 112 ... 079 ... 58
    NIALL D .................. 13.1 ... 22.9 ... 1.6 ... 095 ... 097 ... 53
    John mac* .............. 12.8 ... 24.3 ... 2.8 ... 110 ... 089 ... 65
    lostinashford** ........ 12.7 ... 23.1 ... 2.4 ... 090 ... 110 ... 43

    * late entries, pen if >60
    ** late-late entries, pen if >50
    ))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))
    ))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))

    The consensus seems to be for a rather warm, dry and sunny month with a good chance of a fairly strong wind event ... good luck to all, and welcome to our new entrants.


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    #43
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Max 22.3c in Oak Park yesterday.


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    #44
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,513 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    First week report, 1-7 September,

    IMT was 14.5 C (slightly above normal overall)

    Rainfall has been only 20% of normal, that mainly in far west and north, Oak Park has been dry through the week (and now eight days), several other stations had only very small amounts.

    Sunshine data quite incomplete but what there is to see would suggest that the week ran about 150% of normal sunshine.


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    #45
    Rikand
    Registered Users Posts: 20,362 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    Stupid getting married giving me a late penalty :)


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    #46
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,513 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    It's not much of a penalty (the conest, of course). :)


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    #47
    Tae laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 728 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Max gust in next day or so?
    Will be watching Belmullet & Malin.


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    #48
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭pauldry


    50knots malin so far


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    #49
    Tae laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 728 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Min so far 4.4c Casement on 12th


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    #50
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,513 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE on the monthly stats ...

    The IMT for week two (8-14) was 12.9 C and this sets the monthly value at 13.7 C. This is now slightly below normal for the period.

    Rainfall averaged 72% of normal and this brings the monthly average up to about 46% of normal.

    Sunshine data, once again rather incomplete, were in the vicinity of 112% of normal, leaving that element around 131% of normal.


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    #51
    Rikand
    Registered Users Posts: 20,362 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    It's not much of a penalty (the conest, of course). :)

    On current values im odds on for a big fat zero so nothing to worry about at all lol. :D


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    #52
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,513 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I noticed a reading of 2 deg at Moorepark this morning at 0600h ... won't know for a day or so what the actual minimum was, then won't know until Monthly Summary appears if this counts as a monthly extreme. So there is some potential for lower forecasts to verify, won't know until we do the validation. Or there may be a clearer situation in the last week. Mount Dillon was confirmed for the monthly low in August. So the trend is towards counting these second-tier stations.


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    #53
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,513 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    That 2.0 is now confirmed at Moorepark (19th).

    BTW conest = contest :o


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    #54
    Harps
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Clear skies and no wind, could be the first air frost tonight? Dublin Airport down to 5C at 9pm


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    #55
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭pauldry


    4c now. could get 0c tonight.

    wind gust max may be beaten monday night as rain is set to miss us on sunday


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    #56
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,989 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Saw that Mt Dillon was down to -1c at 0500


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    #57
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,513 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE on week three (15-21 Sep) ...

    The IMT for the third week was 12.2 C (about -1 deg for the period) and this changes the monthly value so far to 13.2 C. This is now trending towards an outcome in the low 12's from the forecasts. A mean of 10 C from today to end of month would leave the IMT at 12.1 C.

    Rainfall averaged 88% of normal (wettest in north, Cork was almost dry for the week) and this brings the monthly average up to about 60% of normal. This can still be reversed with a heavy rainfall event looming, even just twice normal rainfall for the last nine days would result in 102% for the month.

    Sunshine data, continuing rather incomplete, were in the vicinity of 105% of normal, leaving that element around 122% of normal. Although that is a rough estimate, if correct, a very cloudy 50% from here to end of month could bring that down to about 100% of normal.


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    #58
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,989 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    Saw that Mt Dillon was down to -1c at 0500

    Mt Dillon data is up now. Got to -0.8c (on the 22nd).


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    #59
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,513 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    One thing to keep in mind about the rainfall part of the contest, the eleven stations that are used in the Monthly Summary from which I get the data, do not include Dublin. Casement, Ballyhaise and Johnstown Castle are included. So whatever Dublin records will not affect the contest.


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    #60
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    pauldry wrote: »
    50knots malin so far

    55KT Today. Malin


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    #61
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,513 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After four weeks, the monthly data show the IMT at 12.2 C (the Ag Report has not been updated for over a week now) ...

    The rainfall seems to be holding in the 75-80 per cent range although that could begin to close in on 85% through the rest of today. Casement and Ballyhaise are above normal but several other stations notably Cork and JC are far below average. As explained earlier, Dublin is not used in the MS so they could be running 800% and it would not matter (except that we would be short a few contestants).

    I didn't check any sunshine stats but surely that has fallen off in the past week, despite some sunshine on the 29th.

    Well, should be able to score this month promptly on Monday afternoon or evening. The October forecast is open for your entries.


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