The return of the one bet challenge

turbobaby

Here we go again! A bit short for time right now as I'm in work, but I will write up some analysis later. Just to say I am back for 2012/13 season with another ridiculous accumulator. This time it's only a double though!

Here it is:

Nottingham Forest to be promoted from the Championship 4/1 (5.0)

Stuart Beavon to be League One top scorer 33/1 (34.0)

Accy odds 169/1 (170.0)

Stake €150 (£115)

Potential returns €25,200 (£19,950)

Bookie Coral.co.uk


For those of you not familiar with my bets, I've had a few similar season-long accumulators, the notable ones included Nicky Maynard, Shane Long and Ross McCormack. The threads should be still available to read.

Screen shot when I get home.

JHet

Wowsa! Good luck with that!

iggy

JHet wrote: »

Wowsa! Good luck with that!

Best of luck.
Is S beavon league 2 player?(Wycombe )

He's 18/1 on PP

turbobaby

Stuart Beavon signed for Preston on deadline day from Wycombe. He absolutely banged them in last year in a poor side. He almost single handedly kept Wycombe League One. If he can perform to the same standard at a much better side, he is far better than a 33/1 shot for top scorer.

Preston have completely changed their whole squad under the guidance of Graham Westley who I have huge respect for and I predict that they will
improve as the season goes on.

Forest have also brought in a lot of quality, especially up top with Billy Sharp and Simon Cox. They've had a great start and confident that they are better value than 4/1 for promotion.

iggy

Cheers
I copied your 2 bets and added Chelsea to win Premier and Juventus to win CL.
I only did a small yankee but PP have Beavon listed to be top scorer in League 2 @18/1.
Should i get onto them and change it as would that part of my bet now be void?

turbobaby

Yeah, you'll defo have to get onto them. A quick email should do it. Doubt they'll give you 33/1 though, but mention that Coral offer that price and you'd rather not have to open an account there (but you will if PP don't give you a good price)

I would also look into Preston to be promoted and Forest's Billy Sharp to be championship top scorer, but his odds weren't good enough on Coral.

Good luck!

MrQ

Best of luck, decent price for two realistic selections.

turbobaby

Thanks man. It's always difficult to pick top scorers from the lower leagues as there are so many variables such as injuries and potential transfers out of the league in Jan. Beavon only just signed so he'll be staying put and is proven at this level. As far as I remember all the players that scored more league goals than him last year have moved up to the Championship.

Forest have been getting great reviews this season and there seems to be a real buzz around the City ground with a new owner, coach and exciting signings. I am actually very confident I will get a good run for my money.

The reason I place these bets is to keep me interested in the results through the whole season which stops me putting on stupid bets every week.

turbobaby

I was thinking of doubling up here but instead of Forest to be promoted I would pick Mark Hughes to be the next premier league boss to leave his post.

They've bought a lot of overrated players on big wages over the summer. They've had an awful start. I can see them disposing of Hughes before Christmas if they are still in the bottom 3.

He's 13/2 with Coral. Would appreciate any insight from posters here. Will also visit the QPR forums to see if he has the support of the fans.

OnTheCounter

Sure di matteo could be sacked next week.

turbobaby

Yes, and that's why this game is called gambling. You pick who you think is more likely to get the boot. Chelsea are top of the league. QPR are bottom. I was asking for some insight, not some ridiculous comment about how it's actually possible the bet could lose.

turbobaby

Right-o, I was unable to add Mark Hughes to my second and final bet, as it was a singles only market. So I had a look around the Coral site with the help of Oddschecker this morning to try find a bargain to go alongside Stuart Beavon who I still believe is an outstanding bet at 33/1.

I know less than nothing about American football but went with the Baltimore Ravens to be the AFC North Winner. Why? Because they were a standout price at Coral. All the other bookies believe they have a better chance of winning than Coral. My betting strategy is that the other bookies are right and Coral is wrong.

That's the same strategy as with my second selection of the treble. Dagenham and Redbridge Draw No Bet today versus Southend. Much better odds available than the other bookies and that's why I went against my standard long term strategy and picked a single event as part of my accumulator.

As a reminder, here are my two attempts at the one bet to €25,000 challenge.

1. £115 Double

Stuart Beavon to finish as top scorer in League 1 @ 34.0
Nottingham Forest to be promoted from the Championship @ 5.0

Total odds: 170.0

2. £65 Treble

Stuart Beavon to finish as top scorer in League 1 @ 34.0
Baltimore Ravens to win AFC North @ 2.625
Dagenham & Redbridge Draw No Bet @ 3.4

Total odds: 303.45

Now, I can post the screenshots!

turbobaby

Yesterday was the perfect example of why I shouldn't do short term bets. Dagenham lost and even before the result was confirmed I had money on Scotland to draw.

That was a winning bet, but still didn't bring me back to where I was before.

Started lashing money on horses with no clue about their prospects. Eventually got lucky with my last few euros and I ended up ahead on the day.

A real loser deep down though as that kind of behaviour is ridiculous.

Will be back with a new long term accy later!

turbobaby

My final selections have now been made. Using all the funds currently available for my season long accumulators I have added the following two bets:



and



All three accumulators have overlapping selections, but no selection is in all three accumulators.

All are attempting to win €25,000.

One bet to €25k or three bets to €75k

I have extremely low expectations of winning, but like I said earlier, this is money spent in order to keep me betting throughout the football season, and it will give me something to follow at the weekends.

I will start updating the rise and fall of the odds from next weekend onwards.

turbobaby

Time for an update. Here's a list of all the selections, starting with the most important (the ones in in two accumulators).

Stuart Beavon - had some chances but no goals. Still 3 goals off the top.
Nottingham Forest - came back from 2-0 down to draw 2-2 and drop to sixth
Chester - lost their 23 game unbeaten run as soon as I back them. Drop to 2nd.
Dundee - Lost and their main rivals for bottom beat Celtic!
Peterborough - Lost 5-2. Still rock bottom.
Preston - beaten by Crawley at home 2-1
Chelsea - Held by QPR and Arsenal hammered Southampton
Juventus - Won. Roma and AC Milan both lost. Nice. Joint top with Lazio.

The odds will be updated on Monday, but there's no doubt my accumulators will have drifted a bit.

turbobaby

Stuart Beavon .....34.0 -> 34.0
Nott's Forest ........5.0 -> 5.5
Chester ................2.2 -> 2.88
Dundee .................2.2 -> 2.0
Peterborough.........1.83 -> 1.57
Preston...................4.0 -> 5.0
Chelsea ..................1.5 -> 1.53
Juventus ...............1.83 -> 1.67

Accy 1: 170.0 -> 187.0
Accy 2: 302.0 -> 308.0
Accy 3: 266.0 -> 404.0

Plenty of red, but the odds change so quickly in this game so there's absolutely nothing to worry about!

The next round of matches are tomorrow evening. Preston are at home to Hartlepool and Forest are playing Palace so I expect some green on the next update.

turbobaby

Plenty of green to report after a pretty good night all round.

In the gambling world, it often appears as if the whole world is against your selections happening. Last night I got that feeling again as I watched Sky Sports News. They reported Stuart Beavon scored both goals when Preston were 2-0 up. I was delighted! I even checked BBC to make sure, and they reported the same. It was only when I checked the match update on Preston's site did I find out that it was total mistaken identity and it was infact Byron that scored the first.

Preston went on to win 5-0, with Beavon performing extremely well, but only picking up the one goal. He know has two and is still three off the top (I am discounting Tranmere midfielder Andy Robinson's chances of finishing first!).

Peterborough were beaten again and Forest were again poor but managed to avoid defeat. The Championship looks very competitive again this year, so it will be a very tough ask for Forest to get promoted.

Anyway, here's the odds update. Odds are the price I got and the current price. You'd swear Beavon got two goals, by the way his odds have dropped!

Stuart Beavon .....34.0 -> 17.0
Nott's Forest ........5.0 -> 5.5
Peterborough.........1.83 -> 1.4
Preston...................4.0 -> 4.5


Beavon & Forest: 170.0 -> 93.5
Beav, Chest, Peterb, Dundee: 302.0 -> 137.0
Chels, Dund, Chest, Prest, Forest, Juve: 266.0 -> 364.0

Looking good so far.

This weekend's fixtures are as follows:

Chelsea v Stoke
Leeds v Forest
Peterborough v Wolves
Walsall v Preston
Celtic v Dundee
Chester v Stalybridge (7th)

turbobaby

Update time.

Stuart Beavon - No goals. Jake Cassidy of Tranmere scored two and is 5 ahead of Beavon now, but crucially he is only loan from Wolves until January. Obviously I am hoping his loan isn't extended.

Nottingham Forest - lost 2-1 away to Leeds and by all accounts were poor. No win since I backed them.

Dundee - Lost at Celtic and all their main rivals picked up points.

Peterborough - Lost 2-0. Still pointless.

Preston - beaten by Walsall 3-1 away. Very inconsistent.

Chelsea - Late winner against Stoke.

Juventus - Beat Chievo 2-0

The odds will be updated on Monday and will show my accumulators will have drifted.

Forest and Preston are letting me down so far, and they are the key selections!

turbobaby

Here's the odds update from last week to current prices.

Stuart Beavon .....17.0 -> 21.0
Nott's Forest ........5.5 -> 7.0
Chester ................2.88 -> 2.75
Dundee .................2.0 -> 1.91
Peterborough.........1.4 -> 1.33
Preston...................4.5 -> 6.0
Chelsea ..................1.53 -> 1.57
Juventus ...............1.67 -> 1.5

Beavon & Forest: 93.5 -> 147
Beav, Chest, Peterb, Dundee: 137.0 -> 146.7
Chels, Dund, Chest, Prest, Forest, Juve: 364.0 -> 520.5

Despite a mixed bag of results this week, the accumulators have drifted.

Forest and Preston letting me down but both were away, and this weekend both will be back at home.

I was actually very impressed with Arsenal against City, but my instinct doesn't really come in to the bets. I just follow the generous odds from Coral, a strategy which has worked well in the past. Perhaps the other bookies think Arsenal will come unstuck in the grim winter months when they've to play the likes of Stoke or Sunderland.

Will be following Preston against 'Boro in the League Cup tonight and Juve away to Fiorentina in the league.

The next fixures are as follows:

Arsenal v Chelsea (big one!)
Forest v Derby
Hull v Peterborough
Preston v Yeovil
Stalybridge v Chester
Dundee v St Johnstone
Fiorentina v Juve
Juve v Roma

turbobaby

Update time again. A pretty average weekend so it certainly could have been better.

Stuart Beavon - No goals again despite Preston scoring 3 (two OGs!) and Beavon playing very well. Still five off the top.

Nottingham Forest - Lost again! Some strange results in the Championship this weekend so it was an opportunity lost.

Dundee - Lost and other results went against them.

Peterborough - Beat Hull 3-1 away!

Preston - beat a poor Yeovil side 3-2 at home.

Chelsea - Very good win away to Arsenal who were v suspect from set pieces.

Juventus - 4 good points from two difficult games (Fior A Roma H) but Napoli picked up 6 points and are now joint top.

Chester - 6-2 winners! Their main rivals Brackley could only draw.

5 green, 3 red. The odds will be updated tomorrow and will probably show my accumulators will have drifted further.

turbobaby

Gonna put the odds in table format from now on...

Selection|Starting Odds|Last week|Now
Beavon|34.0|21.0|21.0
Forest|5.0|7.0|8.0
Chester|2.2|2.75|2.5
Dundee|2.2|1.91|1.62
Peterborough|1.83|1.33|1.4
Preston|4.0|6.0|4.5
Chelsea|1.5|1.57|1.44
Juventus|1.83|1.5|1.57
BET I|170.0|147.0|168.0
*BET II |302.0|146.7|119.0
BET III|266.0|520.5| 329.6


*Accumulator with best chance:

Bet II: Beavon, Chester, Peterborough, Dundee

A few goals for Beavon on Tue and Sat would do the trick!

turbobaby

My best mate Stuart Beavon came good last night with the final goal in a 3-1 win for Preston away to Doncaster. A very good result for my accumulators. He is 4 goals off the top now.

In other games, Peterborough made it 6 points out of 6 with their second away win in four days. Thankfully, they are still bottom, but I don't like that kind of form!

Chester were busy winning their FA Cup replay but all their rivals in BSq North won so their odds are likely to drift once fully updated.

As a reminder, when updating the odds, I pick the best prices available from all regular bookies on oddschecker.com

Tonight, Forest play Blackburn at Ewood and they need to get something out of that game to stop the rot.

Enjoying this so far!

turbobaby

After Forest failed to win (again) on Wednesday the odds are ready for an update.

Selection|Starting Odds|Last week|Now
Beavon|34.0|21.0|15.0
Forest|5.0|8.0|9.0
Chester|2.2|2.5|2.62
Dundee|2.2|1.62|1.62
Peterborough|1.83|1.4|1.57
Preston|4.0|4.5|4.0
Chelsea|1.5|1.44|1.44
Juventus|1.83|1.57|1.5
BET I|170.0|168.0|135.0
*BET II |302.0|119.0|99.9
BET III|266.0| 329.6|330.0


*Accumulator with best chance, which is now less than 100/1 having started as a 300/1 shot:

Bet II: Beavon, Chester, Peterborough, Dundee

This weekend sees the following games:
Chelsea v Norwich
Peterborough v Forest (massive game for the bets!)
Oldham v Preston
Hibs v Dundee
Bishops Stortford (who?!) v Chester
Juve v Siena

This is the first weekend where I can see all selections winning, so I expect the odds to be considerably shorter come Monday morning.

turbobaby

Well that was a pretty good weekend. Not a clean sweep of green, but that's a lot to ask to be fair.

Chelsea beat Norwich comfortably.
Forest got their first away win of the season against Peterborough. Crucial!
Preston were useless and lost to Oldham with no goals for Beavon. Still four off the top.
Dundee lost 3-0 to Hibs.
Juve v Siena. Late winner for Juve.

Selection|Starting Odds|Last week|Now
Beavon|34.0|15.0|15.0
Forest|5.0|9.0|9.0
Chester|2.2|2.62|2.63
Dundee|2.2|1.62|1.44
Peterborough|1.83|1.57|1.44
Preston|4.0|4.0|5.5
Chelsea|1.5|1.44|1.44
Juventus|1.83|1.5|1.5
BET I|170.0|135.0|135.0
*BET II |302.0|99.9|81.8
BET III|266.0|330.0|405.0


*The accumulator with best chance, which is now 80/1 having started as a 300/1 shot:

Bet II: Beavon, Chester, Peterborough, Dundee

I didn't realise it was FA Cup qualifying weekend so there were no BlueSq North games.

Of the three accumulators one went down, one up and one stayed the same!

turbobaby

Akpa Akpro, Tranmere striker on 7 goals (joint top scorer) has been ruled out for 3 months!

That should put a dent in Tranmere's progress. Hopefully his loss will mean Cassidy will struggle for goals without his strike partner.

turbobaby

Another decent strike partnership has been broken up by injury in League One. Farid el Alagui who has 3 goals is out long term. Like with Tranmere I am hoping Donaldson's goals (6) dry up.

International weekend coming up but there will be League One and BSq North games.

turbobaby

With the internationals on, it was a limited weekend of football in terms of my accumulators.

Only League One and BlueSq North to keep an eye on and the results were mixed. Cassidy scored again for Tranmere and no goals for Beavon in a 0-0 draw against a good MK Dons side. Blackman and McLeod also scored but nice to see Clayton McDonald miss a peno.

There was great news elsewhere as Chester won 2-1 away and all their rivals lost, including the league leaders 6-1.

In other news, Ipswich have signed a couple of players this week and Peterborough have put their top striker Emile Sinclair on the transfer list as he is refusing to sign a new contract.

If Beavon starts scoring, that accumulator will look very good.

Updates as follows (only Chester odds changed)

Selection|Starting Odds|Last week|Now
Beavon|34.0|15.0|15.0
Forest|5.0|9.0|9.0
Chester|2.2|2.62|2.2
Dundee|2.2|1.62|1.44
Peterborough|1.83|1.57|1.44
Preston|4.0|4.0|5.5
Chelsea|1.5|1.44|1.44
Juventus|1.83|1.5|1.5
BET I|170.0|135.0|135.0
*BET II |302.0|81.8|68.4
BET III|266.0|330.0|405.0


*The accumulator with the best chance. Now 70/1 having started as a 300/1 shot:

Bet II: Beavon, Chester, Peterborough, Dundee

turbobaby

With just over a month having passed since I placed my accumulators, maybe it's time for a bit of analysis of how the odds have moved.

Accy 1
Beavon top scorer League 1
Forest promotion
170.0 -> 135.0
CoS: 0.6% -> 0.75%

Accy 2
Beavon top scorer League 1
Chester win Bsq North
Peterb relegation
Dundee to finish bottom
302.0 -> 68.4
CoS: 0.3% -> 1.5%

Accy 3
Chelsea best team outside of Man City and Utd
Dundee to finish bottom,
Chester win Bsq North
Preston promotion
Forest promotion
Juve win Serie A
266.0 -> 405.0
CoS: 0.4% -> 0.24%

So you can see that despite the decent start my most hopeful bet has still only a 1.5% chance of success. I can't see Coral sweating too much yet, but like I said in the earlier post if Beavon starts picking up goals in an improving Preston side I feel like there's hope for success there.

Accy 2 analysis
I watched highlights of a few Dundee games and they have looked incredibly poor, both going forward and defending.

Peterborough can't buy a point at home and to survive in the Championship they will need that to change. Trouble between Barry Fry and Darren Ferguson isn't healthy and with their best striker looking to leave, this is another selection I am happy with.

I don't know a thing about Chester, but their results to date have been excellent, and they have large attendances at home, and with recent signings seem to have strength in depth that maybe other teams don't have. They will go top if they win tomorrow night. They are out of the FA Cup by the way (good news in my eyes!)

Beavon has been getting rave reviews for his all round play but has only three goals to his name. Cassidy is top with 8, but as I mentioned earlier he is only on loan until January. Paridoxically, if he continues to bang the goals in Wolves may be more likely to refuse an extension until the end of the season. Discounting other players because of injury, Beavon is only 3 points off the lead and is actually now one of the favourites with the bookies.

Back to normal next weekend, without the torture of watching Ireland play.

turbobaby

Not a bad weekend at all, with only one game providing a bad result, Preston losing to Sheffield Utd at home and no goal for Beavon again.

Izale McCleod scored two and is now joint top scorer on 8 vs Beavon on 3.

Forest beat the league leaders Cardiff comfortably, Juve won the top of the table clash against Napoli and both Dundee and Peterborough were beaten again. Chelsea stretched their lead over Arsenal to 10 points!

All three accys have shortened.

Selection|Starting Odds|Last week|Now
Beavon|34.0|15.0|15.0
Forest|5.0|9.0|7.0
Chester|2.2|2.2|2.25
Dundee|2.2|1.44|1.22
Peterborough|1.83|1.44|1.36
Preston|4.0|5.5|8.0
Chelsea|1.5|1.44|1.29
Juventus|1.83|1.5|1.45
BET I|170.0|135.0|105.0
*BET II |302.0|68.4|56.0
BET III|266.0|405.0|287.5


*The accumulator with the best chance. Now 55/1 having started as a 300/1 shot:

Bet II: Beavon, Chester, Peterborough, Dundee

turbobaby

An away win for Preston and a draw for Forest away to Blackpool last night helps both their promotion hopes, but the lack of goals for Beavon is really starting to worry me.

He seems to be playing very well but not actually getting many chances on goal. Westley is tinkering with the team a lot, trying to find the right balance. Another goal for Jake Cassidy means Beavon is now 6 goals off the top

turbobaby

Another game, another blank for Beavon. This time he was denied a goal by a handball on the line! In the same game Cassidy bagged a goal for Tranmere and is now miles ahead of Beavon. Hopefully his loan will not be extended past January.

Elsewhere Forest had an excellent win, Chester went top again, Dundee lost but so did Chelsea, and Peterborough continued their good form with a solid 3-0 win. Juve won, but so did their two biggest rivals, Napoli and Inter.

Updates as follows:

Selection|Starting Odds|Last week|Now
Beavon|34.0|15.0|25.0
Forest|5.0|7.0|5.0
Chester|2.2|2.25|2.0
Dundee|2.2|1.22|1.2
Peterborough|1.83|1.36|1.73
Preston|4.0|8.0|7.0
Chelsea|1.5|1.29|1.36
Juventus|1.83|1.45|1.4
BET I|170.0|105.0|125.0
*BET II |302.0|56.0|103.8
BET III|266.0|278.5|160.0


All accys have shortened since day one but I feel as though accy 3 is now my best hope despite it having the longest odds, as Beavon would really need to go on a major run to get back in contention.