BOOM !!

dj jarvis

so it begins

a sign that Iran is about to get a visit from some missiles with the star of david on them ?

http://www.independent.ie/breaking-news/world-news/canada-cuts-iran-diplomatic-links-3223059.html

so that add's to the list of nations getting out of dodge

will paddy power take a bet on Iran getting bombed back to the stone age before Christmas ? or as some people think bombed forward to the stone age

Abi

Full story

Canada is shutting its embassy in Tehran and severing diplomatic relations with Iran, Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird has said.

He said the Canadian embassy in Tehran will close immediately and Iranian diplomats in Canada have been given five days to leave.

Mr Baird, who serves in a Conservative government that is a staunch ally of Israel, said Iran is the most significant threat to global peace and security in the world today.

"The Iranian regime is providing increasing military assistance to the Assad regime; it refuses to comply with UN resolutions pertaining to its nuclear programme; it routinely threatens the existence of Israel and engages in racist anti-Semitic rhetoric and incitement to genocide," Mr Baird said in a statement.

"It is among the world's worst violators of human rights; and it shelters and materially supports terrorist groups, requiring the Government of Canada to formally list Iran as a state sponsor of terrorism under the Justice for Victims of Terrorism Act."

He also said he is worried about the safety of diplomats in Tehran following recent attacks on the British embassy there.

He also urged Canadians to avoid travelling to Iran.

.

moonlighting

Augmerson

It's bull****.

the groutch

well there's plenty of oil there, so guaranteed the Yanks will get involved.

dj jarvis

Augmerson wrote: »

It's bull****.

what is ?

story is true - and its also know that " friendly " nations get the nod, to get get staff and citizens out of harms way on a false pretense.

but if you say its bull **** in a one word answer it must be so - thanks for putting the world fears at ease

TeddyTedson

I hope the world leaders that decide to bomb the **** out of Iran have a nice long look at the footage of the burn victims from Iraq first after they decided to blow everything up in 2003.
Don't think I'll ever forget seeing that footage.
I remember seeing a mother crying her eyes out after her entire family had been killed.
Then there was children with the most horrendous burns I've ever seen.

One thing that always sort of gives me chills so to speak is seeing that footage on the news of the aftermath where everything is calm with dead bodies with missing limbs littered everywhere.

I guess it's very easy though for people to "support" a war when you know it's thousands of miles away from home soil.

Weird to think that so many world leaders have so much innocent blood on their hands. It makes you consider just how ****ed up the world actually is in reality.

/Hippy Rant

Biggins

One country Canada cuts off some diplomatic services.
There is still about 195 countries still on relative talking/connection terms in some fashion.

I don't think the Iranians are too worried about Canada's latest action.

dj jarvis

dont get me wrong teddy i dont want it seen that i support ANY military action on anyone

but if the Iranians do lob a nuke at the Israeli's then the burning of civilians will be x100 times of any previous conflict

a telling line from this link " one thing we do know - the clock is ticking "

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/israel-edges-closer-to-solo-strike-on-iran/story-e6frg6so-1226467595299

it's coming in one form or another - question is when
dont like being too cynical, but America will do well selling arms to Israel , and lets face it they could do with the work at the moment

my feeling is on this is , watch this space - its when not if

dj jarvis

Biggins wrote: »

One country Canada cuts off some diplomatic services.
There is still about 195 countries still on relative talking/connection terms in some fashion.

I don't think the Iranians are too worried about Canada's latest action.

it's not just Canada , its the brits - the Americans , others im sure
did the EU not say it was considering diplomatic sanctions if economic ones dont work ?

not saying at all just because Canada has taking this action that its all systems go on Iran , but with all other saber rattling that has been going on over the last month and now this ............ a betting man might take a punt on this one

http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=562

quote " we WILL bomb Iran "

DwightSchrute1

Shake shake shake the room

Biggins

dj jarvis wrote: »

dont get me wrong teddy i dont want it seen that i support ANY military action on anyone

but if the Iranians do lob a nuke at the Israeli's then the burning of civilians will be x100 times of any previous conflict

a telling line from this link " one thing we do know - the clock is ticking "

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/israel-edges-closer-to-solo-strike-on-iran/story-e6frg6so-1226467595299

it's coming in one form or another - question is when
dont like being too cynical, but America will do well selling arms to Israel , and lets face it they could do with the work at the moment

my feeling is on this is , watch this space - its when not if

1. Why the Iranians would be stupid to lob a nuke = M.A.D.

2. Why Israel would be stupid to attack? It would possibly give reason for no 1.

3. When will it happen? Post election in the states possibly (short version).

4. Who would win?

NO ONE!

dj jarvis

Biggins wrote: »

1. Why the Iranians would be stupid to lob a nuke = M.A.D.

2. Why Israel would be stupid to attack? It would possibly give reason for no 1.

3. When will it happen? Post election in the states possibly (short version).

4. Who would win?

NO ONE!

1. becasue both of the antagonists have PUBLICLY said they will bomb each other - Iran has said it will if their nuke site is bombed , Israel has said PUBLICLY that it will bomb the nuke faculty - Iran has doubled it capacity in the last month



2 see above

3 i have no idea , but nearly all commentators have stated that it a question of when not if - why would so many be stating this if its not a possibility ?

4 no one - but that has not stopped nations before , and Isreal has form on this kind of action
http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/june/7/newsid_3014000/3014623.stm

** also Saudi's said 2 weeks ago that Israel could not use their airspace WHEN they attack Iran - and the saudi's hate Iran **

Biggins

dj jarvis wrote: »

1. becasue both of the antagonists have PUBLICLY said they will bomb each other - Iran has said it will if their nuke site is bombed , Israel has said PUBLICLY that it will bomb the nuke faculty - Iran has doubled it capacity in the last month

2 see above

3 i have no idea , but nearly all commentators have stated that it a question of when not if - why would so many be stating this if its not a possibility ?

4 no one - but that has not stopped nations before , and Isreal has form on this kind of action
http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/june/7/newsid_3014000/3014623.stm

Sadly I suspect we are coming closer to a "When" situation.
I hope I'm very wrong.

dj jarvis

Biggins wrote: »

Sadly I suspect we are coming closer to a "When" situation.
I hope I'm very wrong.

i agree 100% - but that is the point im getting at , if you put all the comments and " evidence " from the last month alone it add's up to trouble

unless Iran backs down - they will get the nuke site bombed and everything that goes with that

the Iranian PM iforgotmydinnerjacket stated yesterday that sanctions are really starting to hurt Iran's economy - so fingers crossed they will do a u turn on this policy - or they could go all crazy mofo on Israel

Biggins

dj jarvis wrote: »

i agree 100% - but that is the point im getting at , if you put all the comments and " evidence " from the last month alone it add's up to trouble

unless Iran backs down - they will get the nuke site bombed and everything that goes with that

the Iranian PM iforgotmydinnerjacket stated yesterday that sanctions are really starting to hurt Iran's economy - so fingers crossed they will do a u turn on this policy - or they could go all crazy mofo on Israel

Iran won't u-turn (for saving face alone).
They will continue to delay, hold talks, break off talks, agree to hold talks again, etc, etc, etc...

Its what Sadam did, its what Gadaffi did... we know how that all ended up.

(Meanwhile... shush... don't tell any one, the world doesn't suspect it - the underground nuclear work will continue!)

Something has got to give sooner or later!

dj jarvis

Biggins wrote: »

Iran won't u-turn (for saving face alone).
They will continue to delay, hold talks, break off talks, agree to hold talks again, etc, etc, etc...

Its what Sadam did, its what Gadaffi did... we know how that all ended up.

(Meanwhile... shush... don't tell any one, the world doesn't suspect it - the underground nuclear work will continue!)

Something has got to give sooner or later!

my guess is the roof of the Iranian facility will be the first to give :eek:

Ara I'm sorted sure, I still have my iodine tablets.

I think ...

Biggins

dj jarvis wrote: »

my guess is the roof of the Iranian facility will be the first to give :eek:

If they use their bunker-busters (which they will have to, I think) , the ceiling will give but the initial explosion will come from much deeper.

Gummy Panda

They can't even play WoW in Iran now.

Harsh times :pac:

Augmerson

dj jarvis wrote: »

what is ?

story is true - and its also know that " friendly " nations get the nod, to get get staff and citizens out of harms way on a false pretense.

but if you say its bull **** in a one word answer it must be so - thanks for putting the world fears at ease

It may be true that Canada is pulling out it's diplomatic staff and closing the embassy, but neither Israel or the US will attack Iran. As much as they would love to, Israel just won't launch that kind of military action outside of it's own territory, and everything they are saying is just posturing. What they really want is the Americans to attack Iran, but America won't attack Iran because it's stretched thin as it is, has fought one entirely pointless war in Iraq and overstayed their welcome (ha) in Afghanistan. There is only so much the most powerful nation in the world can do - they've got too many troops spread out too far now. It is an immense cost to them.

Iran is not like Iraq of Afghanistan, it is a much, much bigger country. Millions more people. It's military, while nowhere near the level of advanced technology as the US or Israel, is still one of the strongest in the Middle East and Asia. They have decent Air Defence capabilities, bombing them into submission won't be easy. They will have also learnt the lessons from the Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya conflicts concerning air warfare and air support. Most importantly, Russia is behind Iran. Maybe not publicly, but they do back them. Russia is providing Iran with newer and more advanced SAMs.

RachaelVO

Whatever way you read this, it's scary times.

Just thinking at the tragic loss of innocent life that will ensure it making me feel ill. As has been said, no one will win but the hatred that will grow from the pain of loosing a limb, or family will just keep on breeding the same hate, making it the unending circle!

Colmustard

No-one want this war, it's unwinnable, the Pentagon know this, Israel knows this, Iran knows this so its all musk and pissing along each other's borders, Iran will test a nuke and probably endure even more stringent sanctions for a while and that would be that, the world will just merry along with an extra nuclear power.

There will be no war.

Killer Wench

There will be no war unless Iran happens to test their nuclear weapon on Israeli territory.

The_Thing

I read this over on wired.com a few days ago: U.S. Attack on Iran Would Take Hundreds of Planes, Ships, and Missiles

dj jarvis

all the theory ( mine included ) is fine , and debate on both side's is speculative

BUT ... Iran has said to the worlds media that if the sanctions continue to bite or get worse they will intervene in the straights of hormuz , for those that dont know , these straights are the life blood of oil for the US , the Iranians have a coast along these waters , along with ( old ) but sizable navy , they could cripple the oil coming from the mid east

this would also bring other western powers into the fray , including strange bed fellows like Israel and the saudi's , all for totally differing reasons but one ultimate goal - to wipe Iran and its Islamic mullas from the face of the earth

you can not under estimate how much of a trigger finger the Israelis have when it comes to this issue - becasue of the weekly threats from Iran against the Jewish state to wipe it from the map , all Israel needs is a hit of a reason and they WILL take out the nuke site , do not doubt this for one second

if you think that the Israelis give a flying **** about world opinion or even the retaliation, you are mistaken - and once they are threatened, the go old USA will and others WILL HAVE TO BACK THEM . full stop

as i said , they have DONE IT ONCE BEFORE - when they were a much weaker state and less friends in the region

some one said that Russia is selling the Iranians missiles - so implying that they would help them - not a bit of it , Israel also buys hardware from the Russians , and the Chinese and on and on

over 500,000 Russian immigrants have moved to Israel in the last 20 years ,
do you think Russia is going to bomb its own people to help Iran ???

not on your life - WHEN Israel does go for the nuke site - Iran is on its own

rossie1977

canada pulling out of iran is only a smoke-shield to divert the problems harper is facing at home ie the quebec independence question

israel know full well that without the americans this is a war they cannot win, they don't possess the weapons first and foremost to destroy the underground nuclear facilities, what would bring the west in though would be if iran blocked the strait of hormuz

Rigol

Isn't their nuclear research/power plant built deep into the side of a mountain?

Irans not the soft touch some might think, they've been updating and upscaling.
They have an unconfirmed quantity (their propaganda says hundreds) of long range conventional missiles which can hit Israel, they're mobile, quick to launch and Iran is a very big place.

shedweller

dj jarvis wrote: »

............ but America will do well selling arms to Israel , and lets face it they could do with the work at the moment
my feeling is on this is , watch this space - its when not if

Israel is the largest cumulative recipient of U.S. foreign assistance since World War II. To date,
the United States has provided Israel $115 billion in bilateral assistance. Almost all U.S. bilateral
aid to Israel is in the form of military assistance, although in the past Israel also received
significant economic assistance. Strong congressional support for Israel has resulted in Israel
receiving benefits not available to any other countries; for example, Israel can use some U.S.
military assistance both for research and development in the United States and for military
purchases from Israeli manufacturers

In 2007, the Bush Administration and the Israeli government agreed to a 10-year, $30 billion
military aid package that gradually will raise Israel’s annual Foreign Military Financing grant
from a baseline of nearly $2.55 billion in FY2009 to approximately $3.1 billion for FY2013
through FY2018. For FY2013, the Obama Administration is requesting $3.1 billion in FMF to
Israel.

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33222.pdf

I may be wrong but it looks as though the US donates the weapons to Israel.

shedweller

rossie1977 wrote: »

canada pulling out of iran is only a smoke-shield to divert the problems harper is facing at home ie the quebec independence question

israel know full well that without the americans this is a war they cannot win, they don't possess the weapons first and foremost to destroy the underground nuclear facilities, what would bring the west in though would be if iran blocked the strait of hormuz

Israel have AIPAC to lobby the American government for them, thus guaranteeing a steady income.
So yes, Israel wouldn't have a hope of winning anything if it weren't for the Israel Lobby.

Sir Pompous Righteousness

1. Iran is still far away from producing a nuclear weapon. Even if it has produced one, it needs to develop the miniaturization technology to make the device light and compact enough to fit inside a rocket. The bombs that were drops on Nagasaki and Hiroshima were far too large and heavy to fit inside any rocket of the day, such as the German V2. They were so heavy that they nearly surpassed the aircraft's weight restrictions. Therefore, any weapons Iran could develop without possessing the miniaturization technology that would fit into a rocket at this stage in time would be in the very low kiloton range, perhaps only 1 or 2 kilotons at best. It would be economically inviable.
2. Iran doesn't posses rockets that are powerful enough to send a heavy payload to the likes of Israel, let alone the US or Europe. Israel only tested it's first proper ICBM a year or two ago. Israel is much more advanced in nuclear and rocket technology than Iran and has over three decades of experience in nuclear weapons technology, yet they've only developed this type of technology recently. How then do they expect Iran to develop an ICBM, let alone an MRBM, any time soon and also develop the miniaturization technology to fit nuclear weapons, which they haven't even developed yet, inside one of these rockets? It's nonsense and pure spin.
3. The Iranian president did not threaten to wipe Israel off the face of the map. That was a mistranlation. Rather he said "the Imam said this regime occupying Jerusalem must vanish from the page of time." He has not threaten genocide or any such thing but does hold a contempt for Zionism which in itself is often confused with Judaism and as such anti-Zionism is almost always confused with antisemitism. Zionism is merely an extremist sect that pushes for the creation of a Jewish state and shouldn't be seen as a representation of all Jews. Many Orthodox Jews openly criticize Zionism for hijacking the Jewish religion. Furthermore, you don't need to be Jewish to be a Zionist.
4. If Iran even did posses nuclear weapons, a strike by Iran on any of it's neighbours (which is unlikely) would result in a massive nuclear retaliation by Israel and/or the US which would completely annihilate the country. It would be pure suicide. Israel holds superior numbers of nuclear weapons and shouldn't worry about a nuclear strike from Iran any time soon. Also, a point to note, Iran has actually signed to Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Israel has not.
5. The Iranian regime isn't at all saintly. They're paranoid, have ruthless domestic policies and completely disrespect human rights. But a war with Iran have even worse consequences for the people of Iran. It would be worse than Iraq and Afghanistan combined. Over a million Iraqi civilians died since 2003, was the Iraq war really as liberating as it's often portrayed?
6. The US is one of the greatest funders of terrorist organisations the world has ever known. It also funded "Al-Qaeda" during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan and is again indirectly funding them in Syria. The US previously accused Iran of funding Al-Qaeda, yet now they're accusing them of funding a regime that is fighting against Al-Qaeda militants in Syria. Funny isn't it.

Toby Take a Bow

dj jarvis wrote: »

the Iranian PM iforgotmydinnerjacket stated yesterday that sanctions are really starting to hurt Iran's economy - so fingers crossed they will do a u turn on this policy - or they could go all crazy mofo on Israel

Iran haven't attacked anyone (as a state) in well over a hundred years, and I still don't think they will be the first to do so, even if (maybe especially if) they develop nuclear weapons.

But if you're right, and the economic situation is getting increasingly dire due to the sanctions, who knows?

Biodegradable Bellend

Anybody who thinks Iran is a bigger threat to the region than USA or Israel is just deluding themselves.

dj jarvis

shedweller wrote: »

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33222.pdf

I may be wrong but it looks as though the US donates the weapons to Israel.

oh they do donate **** loads - but they also but **** loads also , and if it does kick off they will need to buy much more , as will the Saudis and the smaller emirates and gulf states

look we all know if Israel does attack it will be a proxy for the US , but the Americans are afraid the Israel is going to jump the gun - and with all the saber rattling between them both the Americans have good reason

did Obama not already tell Israel to cool its jets on the rhetoric , and the GOP in the states with the election coming are pushing the agenda that Obama is anti Israel

all i can say from the last couple of months the warning signs are not at all good - i hope that im miles off the mark - but i also have this feeling that something is going to go down , and lots of little movements tend to be the warning for something much bigger down the road

dj jarvis

Sir Pompous Righteousness wrote: »

1. Iran is still far away from producing a nuclear weapon. Even if it has produced one, it needs to develop the miniaturization technology to make the device light and compact enough to fit inside a rocket. The bombs that were drops on Nagasaki and Hiroshima were far too large and heavy to fit inside any rocket of the day, such as the German V2. They were so heavy that they nearly surpassed the aircraft's weight restrictions. Therefore, any weapons Iran could develop without possessing the miniaturization technology that would fit into a rocket at this stage in time would be in the very low kiloton rage, perhaps only 1 or 2 kilotons at best. It would be economically inviable.
2. Iran doesn't posses rockets that are powerful enough to send a heavy payload to the likes of Israel, let alone the US or Europe. Israel only tested it's first proper ICBM a year or two ago. Israel is much more advanced in nuclear and rocket technology than Iran and has over three decades of experience in nuclear weapons technology, yet they've only developed this type of technology recently. How then do they expect Iran to develop an ICBM, let alone an MRBM, any time soon and also develop the miniaturization technology to fit nuclear weapons, which they haven't even developed yet, inside one of these rockets? It's nonsense and pure spin.
3. The Iranian president did not threaten to wipe Israel off the face of the map. That was a mistranlation. Rather he said "the Imam said this regime occupying Jerusalem must vanish from the page of time." He has not threaten genocide or any such thing but does hold a contempt for Zionism which in itself is often confused with Judaism and as such anti-Zionism is almost always confused with antisemitism. Zionism is merely a extremist sect that pushes for the creation of a Jewish state and shouldn't be seen as a representation of all Jews. Many Orthodox Jews openly criticize Zionism. Furthermore, you don't need to be Jewish to be a Zionist.
4. If Iran even did posses nuclear weapons, a strike by Iran on any of it's neighbours (which is unlikely) would result in a massive nuclear retaliation by Israel and/or the US which would completely annihilate the country. It would be pure suicide. Israel holds superior numbers in nuclear weapons and shouldn't worry a nuclear strike from Iran any time soon.
5. The Iranian regime isn't at all saintly. They're paranoid and have ruthless policies and completely disrespect human rights. But a war with Iran have even worse consequences for the people of Iran. It would be worse than Iraq and Afghanistan combined. Over a million Iraqi civilians died since 2003, was the Iraq war really as liberating as it's often portrayed?
6. The US is one of the greatest funders of terrorist organisations the world has ever known. It also funded "Al-Qaeda" during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan and is again indirectly funding them in Syria. The US previously accused Iran of funding Al-Qaeda, yet now their accusing them of funding a regime that is fighting against Al-Qaeda militants in Syria. Funny isn't it.

sorry but where did you get this - it flys in the face of a lot that has been published in the " traditional " media

RachaelVO

dj jarvis wrote: »

all i can say from the last couple of months the warning signs are not at all good - i hope that im miles off the mark - but i also have this feeling that something is going to go down , and lots of little movements tend to be the warning for something much bigger down the road

Have to say DJ, reading you posts, seem you know what's what, which is more than I do, and I find it positively frightening. Who's to stop anyone of them turning their sights on Europe, or China... I remember my Mam telling me about the Cuban missile crisis, and the abject fear that her and her parents felt. I'm really starting to understand what she meant.

dj jarvis

Biodegradable Bellend wrote: »

Anybody who thinks Iran is a bigger threat to the region than USA or Israel is just deluding themselves.

but no one has said that !!!!

what is being said is that Israel wants the nuke facility gone - and them or the USA taking it out has much bigger fallout ( pun not intended )

i dont think they would attack Israel - but on historical form , IF Israel FEELS threatened it will act

Sir Pompous Righteousness

dj jarvis wrote: »

sorry but where did you get this - it flys in the face of a lot that has been published in the " traditional " media

Get what exactly, what parts?

Shryke

dj jarvis wrote: »

dont get me wrong teddy i dont want it seen that i support ANY military action on anyone

but if the Iranians do lob a nuke at the Israeli's then the burning of civilians will be x100 times of any previous conflict

a telling line from this link " one thing we do know - the clock is ticking "

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/israel-edges-closer-to-solo-strike-on-iran/story-e6frg6so-1226467595299

it's coming in one form or another - question is when
dont like being too cynical, but America will do well selling arms to Israel , and lets face it they could do with the work at the moment

my feeling is on this is , watch this space - its when not if

Can I say how ridiculous the bit in bold is? That's an absurd and untrue statement. Don't be hysterical please.

America will donate arms to Israel before selling them. The US pisses money at Israel to please their own so you're reading that all wrong. Obama isn't as keen on Israel as Romney would be. JFK wasn't a fan either, but it's guaranteed votes is you do well by the Zionist state.
Romneys recent foray on the world stage was a sum total of two trips. One to the UK where he did nothing but make an arse of himself and one to Israel. He made some shapes about being behind them in conflict but God help the poor rich Mormon I don't think he could find the middle-east on a map let alone Israel, and I don't think he cares either.
If Romney wins the next election then Israel might feel more confident about their place but they still aren't doing jack.

dj jarvis wrote: »

1. becasue both of the antagonists have PUBLICLY said they will bomb each other - Iran has said it will if their nuke site is bombed , Israel has said PUBLICLY that it will bomb the nuke faculty - Iran has doubled it capacity in the last month



2 see above

3 i have no idea , but nearly all commentators have stated that it a question of when not if - why would so many be stating this if its not a possibility ?

4 no one - but that has not stopped nations before , and Isreal has form on this kind of action
http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/june/7/newsid_3014000/3014623.stm

** also Saudi's said 2 weeks ago that Israel could not use their airspace WHEN they attack Iran - and the saudi's hate Iran **

If the Saudis could have djinn trapped somewhere that can tell them the future that might matter. Commentators make guesses and officials say all sorts of crap. Nothing is certain. The Ayatollah isn't stupid and senior Isreali military personnel have said that open hostilities would be absurd. It's all bureaucratic posturing at the moment and no real escalation.

dj jarvis wrote: »

i agree 100% - but that is the point im getting at , if you put all the comments and " evidence " from the last month alone it add's up to trouble

unless Iran backs down - they will get the nuke site bombed and everything that goes with that

the Iranian PM iforgotmydinnerjacket stated yesterday that sanctions are really starting to hurt Iran's economy - so fingers crossed they will do a u turn on this policy - or they could go all crazy mofo on Israel

Their nuclear project has been attacked a number of times already. There was an almost certain bomb attack that set them back at least half a year. It wasn't reported on at the time but came to light later on. They've had computer attacks and the like also. Their scientists have been assassinated. So it goes.

dj jarvis wrote: »

all the theory ( mine included ) is fine , and debate on both side's is speculative

BUT ... Iran has said to the worlds media that if the sanctions continue to bite or get worse they will intervene in the straights of hormuz , for those that dont know , these straights are the life blood of oil for the US , the Iranians have a coast along these waters , along with ( old ) but sizable navy , they could cripple the oil coming from the mid east

this would also bring other western powers into the fray , including strange bed fellows like Israel and the saudi's , all for totally differing reasons but one ultimate goal - to wipe Iran and its Islamic mullas from the face of the earth

you can not under estimate how much of a trigger finger the Israelis have when it comes to this issue - becasue of the weekly threats from Iran against the Jewish state to wipe it from the map , all Israel needs is a hit of a reason and they WILL take out the nuke site , do not doubt this for one second

if you think that the Israelis give a flying **** about world opinion or even the retaliation, you are mistaken - and once they are threatened, the go old USA will and others WILL HAVE TO BACK THEM . full stop

as i said , they have DONE IT ONCE BEFORE - when they were a much weaker state and less friends in the region

some one said that Russia is selling the Iranians missiles - so implying that they would help them - not a bit of it , Israel also buys hardware from the Russians , and the Chinese and on and on

over 500,000 Russian immigrants have moved to Israel in the last 20 years ,
do you think Russia is going to bomb its own people to help Iran ???

not on your life - WHEN Israel does go for the nuke site - Iran is on its own

The US has a fleet stationed in or near the strait of hormuz. Iran can posture all they want. I think the straight sees about 40% of the worlds supply but I might be remembering that wrong.
Isreal/Saudis aren't strange bed fellows really, they're allies to America. Iran is the only country left in the middle-east that isn't. They don't like that.
Isreal isn't as dumb a state as you make out and they won't be doing anything without direct assent from the US. They're the size of Wales and you're making them sound like giants. They aren't able to wage a war. No one is detonating nukes. Relax.

Russia has stale mated intervention in Syria. Have you seen that on the news? It's not wanting to cause an escalated conflict with the likes of Russia that has the UN with its thumb up its ass.
You're blowing Israel out of proportion and you're belittling Russia. Russia is still a super power and they won't sit back while the US messes with their interests.

dj jarvis

RachaelVO wrote: »

Have to say DJ, reading you posts, seem you know what's what, which is more than I do, and I find it positively frightening. Who's to stop anyone of them turning their sights on Europe, or China... I remember my Mam telling me about the Cuban missile crisis, and the abject fear that her and her parents felt. I'm really starting to understand what she meant.

dont get me wrong , i am NO expert
but no need to worry about Iran sending a missile to Europe just yet , the best one they have falls just sort ( greece maybe - but def turkey )

i have just been following this with a keen eye for ages , becasue i remember Isreal doing the VERY same thing to the Iraq nuke facility is the 80's

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Opera

the Saudi's said THIS WEEK that they don't want a re run of their air space being used for a attack on Iran

so what is going to stop them doing it again - america is worried that they are going to do this very thing and have been warning against it

Augmerson

Iran is fine, seriously. Everybody is aware that the Israeli's have in the past carried out air strikes against Syria and Iraq. They were successful missions which destroyed and seriously deterred both of these countries from continuing down the road to building nuclear reactors and possibly weapons. So if they have a track record and they aren't afraid, then why haven't they already acted?

It's fairly clear Israel doesn't care what the world thinks of it. They really won't care if the whole world shuns them for attacking Iran. So why don't they go in now? Every day that those facilities remain standing is another day that Iran goes further to having it's own proper nuclear program....and you'll notice I said nuclear program and not nuclear weapons. I'll get back to that.

The Israeli's are posturing. Banging a big drum. They won't attack, it would be stupid. They know this. The best outcome they can hope for is to cripple Iran with sanctions in the way that Iraq was crippled and Cuba has been crippled and ostracised. This will be very hard and not work because Iran is sitting on a serious amount of oil which the US wants to control, so it has leverage.

Both the US and Israel clearly do want something to happen but military action won't achieve it and the fact that they haven't done it already speaks volumes of their desperate position. Other countries will still want to deal with Iran and as reserves in Saudi Arabia begin to dwindle and the cost of exploring for new oil fields rises, Iran will be sitting there, holding its cards tightly and knowing they are sitting pretty. If I was a betting man, I'd bet that Iran will replace Israel as the regional power of the Middle East in the next 20 years. This is what all of this crap is really all about.

Things are changing in the Middle East. Egypt is no longer friendly to Israel. Turkey has been burned several times and would probably love to turn their back on them. Saudi Arabia only allies itself to Israel because they hate Shia's in Iran. Jews are still banned in SA as far as I know, so it goes to show they are only siding with Israel out of fear and hate for the regime in Iran and what that regime's continued defiance of the West means to the millions of oppressed, poor and voiceless Muslims throughout the Middle East and beyond.

This whole scenario is bull**** anyway. Israel has nukes. Pakistan has nukes. India has nukes. Iran is just trying to put together a nuclear energy program, not a weapons program, but if it was, why shouldn't they be allowed to? Since the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons was signed at least 4 (India, Pakistan, North Korea, Israel) nations have since gained nuclear weapons. The US has definitely assisted 2 of those in doing so (India and Israel) and is fuelling an arms race between Pakistan and India in doing so.

I find it very amusing that the Israeli's threaten to nuke Iran with weapons that they have, in the past, refused to admit or deny they even had. To me, the biggest threat to world peace and security IS Israel.

dj jarvis wrote:

some one said that Russia is selling the Iranians missiles - so implying that they would help them - not a bit of it , Israel also buys hardware from the Russians , and the Chinese and on and on

Israel traditionally does not buy hardware from Russia or China. It either makes its own eg. the Uzi, Merkava, or buys US weapons. I've never seen the Israeli army equipped with any Russian or Chinese weaponry.

dj jarvis wrote:

over 500,000 Russian immigrants have moved to Israel in the last 20 years ,
do you think Russia is going to bomb its own people to help Iran ???

This may alarm you, but the current Russian administration really doesn't care about 500,000 Russian born immigrants who are now in Israel. Those people are Israeli now. They are not a concern of the Russian government. The Russian government doesn't even care most of the time about it's own Russian people. Go and visit the crumbling cities in Siberia where people are making their own homemade version of Heroin called Krokodil and rotting to pieces and you will get a very good understanding of how much the Russian government cares for people who aren't either millionaires or cronies.

dj jarvis

Sir Pompous Righteousness wrote: »

Get what exactly, what parts?

the mistranslated part for one

did iforgotmydinnerjacket not when slating the holocaust also not say he was wanting to " wipe the Jewish state off the map "

big hullaballo about it at the time , about 2 years ago if i remember

if i can find a link i will post it

so where did you get it from?

dj jarvis

Shryke wrote: »

Can I say how ridiculous the bit in bold is? That's an absurd and untrue statement. Don't be hysterical please.

America will donate arms to Israel before selling them. The US pisses money at Israel to please their own so you're reading that all wrong. Obama isn't as keen on Israel as Romney would be. JFK wasn't a fan either, but it's guaranteed votes is you do well by the Zionist state.
Romneys recent foray on the world stage was a sum total of two trips. One to the UK where he did nothing but make an arse of himself and one to Israel. He made some shapes about being behind them in conflict but God help the poor rich Mormon I don't think he could find the middle-east on a map let alone Israel, and I don't think he cares either.
If Romney wins the next election then Israel might feel more confident about their place but they still aren't doing jack.



If the Saudis could have djinn trapped somewhere that can tell them the future that might matter. Commentators make guesses and officials say all sorts of crap. Nothing is certain. The Ayatollah isn't stupid and senior Isreali military personnel have said that open hostilities would be absurd. It's all bureaucratic posturing at the moment and no real escalation.



Their nuclear project has been attacked a number of times already. There was an almost certain bomb attack that set them back at least half a year. It wasn't reported on at the time but came to light later on. They've had computer attacks and the like also. Their scientists have been assassinated. So it goes.



The US has a fleet stationed in or near the strait of hormuz. Iran can posture all they want. I think the straight sees about 40% of the worlds supply but I might be remembering that wrong.
Isreal/Saudis aren't strange bed fellows really, they're allies to America. Iran is the only country left in the middle-east that isn't. They don't like that.
Isreal isn't as dumb a state as you make out and they won't be doing anything without direct assent from the US. They're the size of Wales and you're making them sound like giants. They aren't able to wage a war. No one is detonating nukes. Relax.

Russia has stale mated intervention in Syria. Have you seen that on the news? It's not wanting to cause an escalated conflict with the likes of Russia that has the UN with its thumb up its ass.
You're blowing Israel out of proportion and you're belittling Russia. Russia is still a super power and they won't sit back while the US messes with their interests.

ok , so why would they not be able to do this , they have a missile that can reach the med - so they have said they would if they are attack , so how is it being hysterical by stating this ?

they have said they would do it if attacked
Israel have said they will attack if they dont shut the nuke site

how is that being hysterical by stating what both sides have said they would do?

as for your view on Russia not attacking their people in Israel - really?? becasue large swathes of Russia are poor and on drugs you see that as confirmation that they would just wipe them out ??

now who is being hysterical ???

as for links with Russia and china selling arms to Israel - there was a thread about Chinese military interveaning if Iran was attacked about 3 moths ago , it had links ( not provided by me ) showing trade sales of weapons to Israel from china - not huge numbers but the trade does happen

dj jarvis

Shryke wrote: »

Can I say how ridiculous the bit in bold is? That's an absurd and untrue statement. Don't be hysterical please.

America will donate arms to Israel before selling them. The US pisses money at Israel to please their own so you're reading that all wrong. Obama isn't as keen on Israel as Romney would be. JFK wasn't a fan either, but it's guaranteed votes is you do well by the Zionist state.
Romneys recent foray on the world stage was a sum total of two trips. One to the UK where he did nothing but make an arse of himself and one to Israel. He made some shapes about being behind them in conflict but God help the poor rich Mormon I don't think he could find the middle-east on a map let alone Israel, and I don't think he cares either.
If Romney wins the next election then Israel might feel more confident about their place but they still aren't doing jack.



If the Saudis could have djinn trapped somewhere that can tell them the future that might matter. Commentators make guesses and officials say all sorts of crap. Nothing is certain. The Ayatollah isn't stupid and senior Isreali military personnel have said that open hostilities would be absurd. It's all bureaucratic posturing at the moment and no real escalation.



Their nuclear project has been attacked a number of times already. There was an almost certain bomb attack that set them back at least half a year. It wasn't reported on at the time but came to light later on. They've had computer attacks and the like also. Their scientists have been assassinated. So it goes.



The US has a fleet stationed in or near the strait of hormuz. Iran can posture all they want. I think the straight sees about 40% of the worlds supply but I might be remembering that wrong.
Isreal/Saudis aren't strange bed fellows really, they're allies to America. Iran is the only country left in the middle-east that isn't. They don't like that.
Isreal isn't as dumb a state as you make out and they won't be doing anything without direct assent from the US. They're the size of Wales and you're making them sound like giants. They aren't able to wage a war. No one is detonating nukes. Relax.

Russia has stale mated intervention in Syria. Have you seen that on the news? It's not wanting to cause an escalated conflict with the likes of Russia that has the UN with its thumb up its ass.
You're blowing Israel out of proportion and you're belittling Russia. Russia is still a super power and they won't sit back while the US messes with their interests.

where did i say they were dumb ???
stop putting words in my mouth to help you point of view , its annoying

last count Israel had 35 working missiles and with he purchase of the new German submarines, they now have the ability of a quick surprise launch off the coast of Iran

size of wales or not , the surrounding nations are afraid of them with good reason - you can slag them all you want - you can tell you dont live next door to them

dj jarvis

Augmerson wrote: »

Iran is fine, seriously. Everybody is aware that the Israeli's have in the past carried out air strikes against Syria and Iraq. They were successful missions which destroyed and seriously deterred both of these countries from continuing down the road to building nuclear reactors and possibly weapons. So if they have a track record and they aren't afraid, then why haven't they already acted?

It's fairly clear Israel doesn't care what the world thinks of it. They really won't care if the whole world shuns them for attacking Iran. So why don't they go in now? Every day that those facilities remain standing is another day that Iran goes further to having it's own proper nuclear program....and you'll notice I said nuclear program and not nuclear weapons. I'll get back to that.

The Israeli's are posturing. Banging a big drum. They won't attack, it would be stupid. They know this. The best outcome they can hope for is to cripple Iran with sanctions in the way that Iraq was crippled and Cuba has been crippled and ostracised. This will be very hard and not work because Iran is sitting on a serious amount of oil which the US wants to control, so it has leverage.

Both the US and Israel clearly do want something to happen but military action won't achieve it and the fact that they haven't done it already speaks volumes of their desperate position. Other countries will still want to deal with Iran and as reserves in Saudi Arabia begin to dwindle and the cost of exploring for new oil fields rises, Iran will be sitting there, holding its cards tightly and knowing they are sitting pretty. If I was a betting man, I'd bet that Iran will replace Israel as the regional power of the Middle East in the next 20 years. This is what all of this crap is really all about.

Things are changing in the Middle East. Egypt is no longer friendly to Israel. Turkey has been burned several times and would probably love to turn their back on them. Saudi Arabia only allies itself to Israel because they hate Shia's in Iran. Jews are still banned in SA as far as I know, so it goes to show they are only siding with Israel out of fear and hate for the regime in Iran and what that regime's continued defiance of the West means to the millions of oppressed, poor and voiceless Muslims throughout the Middle East and beyond.

This whole scenario is bull**** anyway. Israel has nukes. Pakistan has nukes. India has nukes. Iran is just trying to put together a nuclear energy program, not a weapons program, but if it was, why shouldn't they be allowed to? Since the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons was signed at least 4 (India, Pakistan, North Korea, Israel) nations have since gained nuclear weapons. The US has definitely assisted 2 of those in doing so (India and Israel) and is fuelling an arms race between Pakistan and India in doing so.

I find it very amusing that the Israeli's threaten to nuke Iran with weapons that they have, in the past, refused to admit or deny they even had. To me, the biggest threat to world peace and security IS Israel.



Israel traditionally does not buy hardware from Russia or China. It either makes its own eg. the Uzi, Merkava, or buys US weapons. I've never seen the Israeli army equipped with any Russian or Chinese weaponry.



This may alarm you, but the current Russian administration really doesn't care about 500,000 Russian born immigrants who are now in Israel. Those people are Israeli now. They are not a concern of the Russian government. The Russian government doesn't even care most of the time about it's own Russian people. Go and visit the crumbling cities in Siberia where people are making their own homemade version of Heroin called Krokodil and rotting to pieces and you will get a very good understanding of how much the Russian government cares for people who aren't either millionaires or cronies.

but that has been my point from my first post - really have you read the thread - i understand and agree with nearly 100% of what you are saying , but if nothing is going to happen , why are the american PUBLICLY warning Israel to do nothing ???

they don't say these things about allies with out good reason , the yanks are getting jumpy

the have been warned many many times over the last 6 months to DO NOTHING - now forgive me but they dont issue warning without a good reason , especially if it a good " BUDDY " nation

it does not make sense any other way

RachaelVO

dj jarvis wrote: »

dont get me wrong , i am NO expert
but no need to worry about Iran sending a missile to Europe just yet , the best one they have falls just sort ( greece maybe - but def turkey )

i have just been following this with a keen eye for ages , becasue i remember Isreal doing the VERY same thing to the Iraq nuke facility is the 80's

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Opera

the Saudi's said THIS WEEK that they don't want a re run of their air space being used for a attack on Iran

so what is going to stop them doing it again - america is worried that they are going to do this very thing and have been warning against it

Well in fairness, ya deffo know more than me

I have vague memories of this going on in the 80's, but as a child I just didn't pay much attention to it. As an adult, with a mortgage and bills to pay and probably more as a Mammy I'm starting to pay more attention to it.

So it you had to guess (probably an dumb question) who would press the button first? Iran or Israel? We all know that the US will support Israel, and the UK and probably most of Europe would follow suit. Would we be watching the same infra red pictures of the war on Iraq from a few years ago?

Have to say, it's positively frightening

Augmerson

dj jarvis wrote: »

but that has been my point from my first post - really have you read the thread - i understand and agree with nearly 100% of what you are saying , but if nothing is going to happen , why are the american PUBLICLY warning Israel to do nothing ???

they don't say these things about allies with out good reason , the yanks are getting jumpy

the have been warned many many times over the last 6 months to DO NOTHING - now forgive me but they dont issue warning without a good reason , especially if it a good " BUDDY " nation

it does not make sense any other way

Yes it does make sense. They aren't going to attack. It's like a couple of drunk goons outside a club on a Saturday night in some **** town trying to start fights. Goon 1 is all aggressive and breathing heavy and Goon 2 is trying to hold the other back, saying it's not worth it, it's not worth it.

It's not going to happen. End of.

Shryke

dj jarvis wrote: »

ok , so why would they not be able to do this , they have a missile that can reach the med - so they have said they would if they are attack , so how is it being hysterical by stating this ?

You're sentences make my head hurt. We've had 2 world wars last century, Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq obliterated with conflict over a number of years with huge death tolls all around. Syria is undergoing huge strife. Look at Bosnia/Serbia. Look at Burma. Civilian casualties being 100 times any previous conflict is pure hysteria. If you can't see that then it's not my fault.

dj jarvis wrote: »

they have said they would do it if attacked
Israel have said they will attack if they dont shut the nuke site

how is that being hysterical by stating what both sides have said they would do?

Read my last post again please, and the posts of others.

dj jarvis wrote: »

as for your view on Russia not attacking their people in Israel - really?? becasue large swathes of Russia are poor and on drugs you see that as confirmation that they would just wipe them out ??

now who is being hysterical ???

What do you think I said exactly? You're making no sense here, sorry.

dj jarvis wrote: »

as for links with Russia and china selling arms to Israel - there was a thread about Chinese military intervening if Iran was attacked about 3 moths ago , it had links ( not provided by me ) showing trade sales of weapons to Israel from china - not huge numbers but the trade does happen

Weapons sales are not great political indicators. As well to look at the actual political situation as a whole and with an understanding of the history of a region and the state of various factions and with some good idea of where money is coming from and going to etc. Weapons sales are straight up profiteering and not always in the best interests of anyone except certain peoples pockets.
As someone else said, at one time America armed al qaeda, although they actually gave arms to Pakistani intermediates who then armed al qaeda as they were the predominant local force along the border area that the US wanted strengthened afaik, so not altogether as heinous an action as some people would like to make out.

dj jarvis

Augmerson wrote: »

Yes it does make sense. They aren't going to attack. It's like a couple of drunk goons outside a club on a Saturday night in some **** town trying to start fights. Goon 1 is all aggressive and breathing heavy and Goon 2 is trying to hold the other back, saying it's not worth it, it's not worth it.

It's not going to happen. End of.

lets hope your right - but theses kind of goon fights in **** hole towns all 2 often end up with one goon getting a knife in the heart

things spiral - this is my point - lets face it the Jewish state is one of the hottest heads in the region

dj jarvis

Shryke wrote: »

You're sentences make my head hurt. We've had 2 world wars last century, Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq obliterated with conflict over a number of years with huge death tolls all around. Syria is undergoing huge strife. Look at Bosnia/Serbia. Look at Burma. Civilian casualties being 100 times any previous conflict is pure hysteria. If you can't see that then it's not my fault.


Read my last post again please, and the posts of others.

What do you think I said exactly? You're making no sense here, sorry.


Weapons sales are not great political indicators. As well to look at the actual political situation as a whole and with an understanding of the history of a region and the state of various factions and with some good idea of where money is coming from and going to etc. Weapons sales are straight up profiteering and not always in the best interests of anyone except certain peoples pockets.
As someone else said, at one time America armed al qaeda, although they actually gave arms to Pakistani intermediates who then armed al qaeda as they were the predominant local force along the border area that the US wanted strengthened afaik, so not altogether as heinous an action as some people would like to make out.

you being a smart arse makes my head hurt - your talking very little substance and lots of scutter - next time someone disagrees with you and you want a debate , try not being a tit about it and they might just engage with you - otherwise we are done

i have made my point clear enough for every one else who is adding to the thread - your the only one having trouble - maybe the issue is with you

Sir Pompous Righteousness

dj jarvis wrote: »

the mistranslated part for one

did iforgotmydinnerjacket not when slating the holocaust also not say he was wanting to " wipe the Jewish state off the map "

big hullaballo about it at the time , about 2 years ago if i remember

if i can find a link i will post it

so where did you get it from?

A proper translation of the actual speech: http://www.juancole.com/2006/05/hitchens-hacker-and-hitchens.html

An accidental admission that by Israel that the translation was a mistake:
http://blogs.aljazeera.com/blog/middle-east/rare-admission-israel

Some more:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mark-weisbrot-and-robert-naiman/arash-norouzi-explains-th_b_39069.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/11/weekinreview/11bronner.html?_r=2