Thunderstorm/Convective Watch - Autumn/Winter 2012

Iancar29

Seeing as its now Autumn , i think the old thread has done the spring summer period justice.


So onto our first chance of the autumn of for some sparks!


Tomorrow theres a nice risk going from the midlands NE into NI.


Some nice amount of shear but not so much Instability and cape for the same time period. But if the CAPE can be tapped into early , some nice structured linear cells may be the result.
Decent low cloud heights and shear may help produce some meso activity with an odd funnel here or there. Atm current sat indications show the cold front approaching from our W , SW ... its behind this that the best chances will be as the skies clear.

Cant post any charts as im off straight out , then work in the morning too! ...

If i was to pick a spot to be in id go for the longford region !

DOCARCH

A couple of strikes on the detectors today.

http://brunnur.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/

Iancar29

SOme recent strikes down along the Kerry Coast



Land sea effect temp difference?.......

Models only show the lapse rates decent enough for action ...

ninebeanrows

Some heavy echoes over the south.

Generally a very heavy period of rainfall in Dublin but no strikes.

The cool air will follow quickly with some sub 0c 850hpa over us tomorrow!

Going to feel very different to of late.

Min

Just a period of heavy rain, reached a rain rate of 72mm/hr.

Iancar29

Caught a interesting lowering just now here in finglas!! ... looked quite funnel like but dunno if it was rotating!!

Iancar29

HArd one to call ! The cloud base was very low and moving quite fast too , sun was in my eyes so couldnt concentrate on if it was rotating or not. Best i could get with the settings my Dad had left the camera on in a rush!

DOCARCH

Iceland detector showing a couple of sparks so far today. http://brunnur.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/

srmambo

Something to take interest of; the 12Z gfs charts show some mild and thundery weather on Friday 28th.





Precipitation wise most of the rain will fall on Thursday night.



This set up looks like something that is similar to a Spanish Plume. Perhaps a rerun of the 1985 storm.

traecy1

Unfortunately it's still over a week and a half away yet, so nowhere near certain at this stage.

Iancar29

Some nice cloudscapes this evening with cumulus congestus and some weak anvils towards Dublin bay and the mountains, nothing exactly picturesque from my view but interesting all the same

Iancar29

Some nice convective showers near me now , gone quite dark! , not so photogenic though atm ... but still nice!

Wolfe_IRE

Iancar29 wrote: »

Some nice convective showers near me now , gone quite dark! , not so photogenic though atm ... but still nice!

Ian, were you anywhere around Kansas on 30 May.

Interesting article posted by NASA today
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=79283

Chicken1

Sister lives in Spain and sent this picture taken in Marbella yesterday



Wrecked cars from floods

jimmynokia

Just in on twitter squal line heading for dublin from kildare
http://t.co/PCEaBJ7y

Wolfe_IRE

Couple of sparks in last hour
http://andvari.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/i_dag_na.html

Iancar29

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

Couple of sparks in last hour

GLitch ?... No show on Net Weather or Sat 24...

Radar looks nice though with that squally shower heading my way

Wolfe_IRE

That line is moving fast in an ENE direction

Wolfe_IRE

I note the MET.IE radar is down so here is another link
http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

Iancar29

Camera at the ready

getting really dark here, nice big dirty black clouds heading this way

trees are bent over sideways big gusts
:eek:

eigrod

Dark and heavy rain in Dublin city centre.

Iancar29

Just passed through here now , nice to get but nothing greatly photogenic , shall post up a photo or 2 when i get back from college this evening.

Iancar29

Wooo! , squall came... wasnt so photogenic.... squall left.... BAM!! , Mammatus and rainbow!



K off i run out the door to college now!

DOCARCH

Looks like a little cell firing away just off the east Cork/Waterford coast this morning.

http://andvari.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/i_dag_na.html

M.T. Cranium

Conditions look favourable for thunderstorms, hail and even waterspout-rope-tornado type developments in the mass of cloud now approaching the Mayo coastline. The back edge of this is well supported by a tight jet stream and a trough in mid-levels. As yours truly will likely be gaining the benefits of sleep at about the time this back edge feature comes inland (1300-1500h) I hope that a few of the usual suspects will keep an eye on developments. I have posted an alert in the forecast section relating to this but would say near Galway the most likely place to see active stormy weather then extending east perhaps as far as Dublin but possibly not holding together that long due to lack of daytime heating after 1600h.

I would kill for even one rogue shower here.

MrFrisp

I just checked the Barometric pressure on My not so fab Barometer earlier,,,and the pressure is reading at 997.

Would that be correct??

Is that a sign of anything good going to happen?






.

Oscar Bravo

Thunder lightening hail-Killala Co.Mayo

Iancar29

You know its a good sign when MT posts in the Convective Watch thread!

MrFrisp wrote: »

I just checked the Barometric pressure on My not so fab Barometer earlier,,,and the pressure is reading at 997.

Would that be correct??

Is that a sign of anything good going to happen?

.

Its nothing out of the ordinary , if it was to keep diving , that would be a good sign

Iancar29

Interesting cell coming on shore just at Kilrush with sferics too.



:O !... WISH I WAS THERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wolfe_IRE

Can confirm thunder to my southwest i.e. Loop Head Peninsula in West Clare

Plenty of lightning strikes being picked up in that area



View to the west-sw - a lot of rain coming my way