Property market senses the bottom - Irish Indo

davet82

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/property-market-senses-the-bottom-3223565.html

Opinions?

We've been at the bottom about 10 times now, i'm skeptical.

drunkmonkey

In fairness how many times have the indo made this call, it's like the boy who cried wolf they'll have to be right at some time, just don't think it's now.

Trader1991

davet82 wrote: »

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/property-market-senses-the-bottom-3223565.html

Opinions?

We've been at the bottom about 10 times now, i'm skeptical.

It wont reach the bottom until the economy stabilizes and banks begin to give people loans to buy houses. simples.:)

I wonder which bottom this is? Must be over number 50 (at least) as far as the Indo are concerned.

kodoherty93

Well the irish times property section on thursday has a section called 2 up, 2 down which is 2 houses in Dublin in which the owner has increased prices eg last week one house in dublin went up by 20% to €480,000. Also if the Times is now producing a pull out supplement for property again rather a few pages there must be demand for property and with there being no supply(there is practically no house in glasnevin, drumcondra) house will have to increase

Bogman Billy

'He said the family home sector is strong -- particularly in the €400,000 to €800,000 range and that's where competition for good houses in hotting up.' :eek:

L5

kodoherty93 wrote: »

there is practically no house in glasnevin, drumcondra) house will have to increase

Strange. I just checked daft and there are 45 houses for sale in Glasnevin . Hardly "practically no house".

quad_red

These days we would always seek evidence that funds are available and approved. We are seeing competition among people with hard cash and people with loans approved. That's something we haven't seen for five years or so," said Mr Ganley.

Wtf does that mean? That to bid on a house he would demand to see the mortgage approval letter from the bank? So he can see how much you're approved for?

LittleBook

Robert Ganley of auctioneers Knight Frank said there is no doubt that there has been a substantial increase in demand for family homes in good locations.

Simon Ensor of Sherry FitzGerald said that they now have 7,000 potential buyers registered at their offices nationwide -- a return to pre-boom figures.

When they stop using vested interests as their ONLY sources for these kinds of articles, I might pay attention.

Property price database is the only way to go.

murphaph

"They are coming back to buy. Also there are those younger people who have always rented who are now tempted to buy because rents are going up so it's nearly starting to be cheaper to buy," he said.

...oh God.

The sad thing is that this attitude is still pervasive in Ireland. I bought a house in the late 90's and have it rented out as I now live abroad.

I am 100% sure that the idiocy of the Irish and the general herd mentality that one sees there, will ensure that these estate agents prophecies actually willc ome true: there will be a "recovery" of the property market and the cycle will start all over again, only limited by how much people can borrow.

The lending of the banks needs PROPER regulation this time as they are so greedy that they WILL lose the run of themselves again if not rigidly controlled. As a property owner in Ireland I stand to gain from any "recovery" but it would be a disaster for our country if it came.

jmayo

kodoherty93 wrote: »

Well the irish times property section on thursday has a section called 2 up, 2 down which is 2 houses in Dublin in which the owner has increased prices eg last week one house in dublin went up by 20% to €480,000. Also if the Times is now producing a pull out supplement for property again rather a few pages there must be demand for property and with there being no supply(there is practically no house in glasnevin, drumcondra) house will have to increase

I always find it interesting that in these threads talking up the market, the ones usually backing up the latest positive pronouncements are low number posters who suddenly appear.

Myabe I am just too cynical.

BTW has anyone heard from the poster on the last thread of this kind who reckoned the last time we had reached the bottom was THE RIGHT TIME to invest in Irish property ?

Snakeblood

The Irish independent is a crappy newspaper that perenially publishes this sort of garbage and has been since 2007, would be my opinion.

groovygirl5

The papers and so called experts have got it wrong so many times now, prices defo can't be on the way up, there is no reason they would with banks not lending so much insecurity etc in the economy.

Villa05

Excellent analysis from Namawinelake (as always) on the latest property spoofery from the independent

NWL as always backs up his analysis with hard (unmassaged) facts. The stamp duty figures are a real eye opener

http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2012/09/09/shameless-sindo-shills-suckers-with-property-puffery/

PS How does a paper with such bias have the brass neck to call itself the Independent.

quad_red

NAMAWINELAKE wrote:

The Sindo uses figures on the volume of stamp duty returns in a separate battle-front today, to claim a rise in stamp duty and consequently that the “property market is beginning to pick up”. And “pick up” in the Sindo’s parlance means price rises. The Sindo uses real numbers which show 33,000 stamp duty transactions in the first six months of 2012 compared with 27,000 in 2010. So how are they wrong? Take a look at the actual stamp duty returns for 2002-2011 revealed in figures provided to the Fianna Fail finance spokesperson Michael McGrath just before the Dail summer recess (extract in the table below). The volume of transactions did indeed increase by 15% between 2010 and 2011, the last year for which annual data is available but look at the VALUE . The value fell by more than 50% from €107m to just €50m. So increased stamp duty transactions – which remember, could be a transfer from a husband to a wife or other off-market transaction – don’t in themselves mean prices are “picking up” – in fact the direct opposite appears true.

There is no f**king defending that. Scumbags

monkeypants

Meh. If the banks thought that houses would start to rise in value, they'd be giving out mortgages for folks to buy them, as profit would be available. They aren't. I suspect they feel that whatever they give out, the security on the loan will drop in value. Besides, the average person isn't buying a house in the €400k - €800k range, or at least I hope they're not.

Debs_Mann

Things are not going to bounce back very soon, if banks have an unofficial policy of refusing mortgages to first time buyers with children and women on maternity leave, so seen in the indo this morning

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/dont-have-kids-if-you-want-to-get-a-mortgage-firsttime-buyers-told-3226231.html

maddragon

I think the fact that it now seems we will be paying at least .25% and up in a few years annually should kill any recovery in prices.

quad_red

Debs_Mann wrote: »

Things are not going to bounce back very soon, if banks have an unofficial policy of refusing mortgages to first time buyers with children and women on maternity leave, so seen in the indo this morning

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/dont-have-kids-if-you-want-to-get-a-mortgage-firsttime-buyers-told-3226231.html

Put this all into perspective and what do you have?

The cheerleaders claim the recovery will be built on the back of people who are desperate for the 3 bed semi in Dublin cos they want to have families.

But if you have a child the amount of mortgage payment allowance you will get is down €250 p/m (according to BOI).

Add on another €100 p/m property tax on a €300k Dublin 3 bed semi.

Add on another €x p/m water rates.

Are people so stupid as to rush in now?

theteal

maddragon wrote: »

I think the fact that it now seems we will be paying at least .25% and up in a few years annually should kill any recovery in prices.

quad_red wrote: »

The cheerleaders claim the recovery will be built on the back of people who are desperate for the 3 bed semi in Dublin cos they want to have families.

not trying to be a pedant here but there really needs to be a change in mindset. Prices are recovering. . . .back to sane economic levels, not there yet though in the majority of cases.

Colonel Sanders

I haven't read an Indo article in years

Mainly due to them publishing tripe like this (note I didn't read the full article but did read analysis on both the pin & NWL)

quad_red

theteal wrote: »

not trying to be a pedant here but there really needs to be a change in mindset. Prices are recovering. . . .back to sane economic levels, not there yet though in the majority of cases.

I absolutely agree. Shouldn't have conflated recovery with price increases.

jmayo

maddragon wrote: »

I think the fact that it now seems we will be paying at least .25% and up in a few years annually should kill any recovery in prices.

There doesn't need to be a RECOVERY in prices.
That would mean that we were going back to the madness of a bubble.

When some people speak of a property market recovery they actually mean that there is a functioning property market where people can obtain sane mortgages to buy property and others can actually sell property at sane prices.
As it is there is a non functioning property market where asking prices are often way too high and banks are not lending.

Mr.Wemmick

It is almost as if, anyone who keeps banging on about property prices going up/recovering, are living in willful ignorance of all the facts currently pounding us and the domestic economy into continued despair.. Crikey! Let's just ignore, shall we, the strained health system, education cut backs, child benefit cuts, increased taxes/VAT, new household tax, higher petrol costs, a significant increase in energy bills, cuts in wages (for most), rising unemployment, limited services for the same or a higher price, unrealistic high salaries for the chosen ones etc. etc.

Meanwhile, the lets-all-invest-in-property club are out to con joe public, again, with the help of the papers, so that we begin, yet again, to get ourselves into debt with high mortgages for over inflated house prices, despite the country being on its knees..

..there's a very good reason why the banks aren't lending, they know full well there's worse to come.

This isn't rock bottom; Irish property prices are still too expensive and if you don't believe me go visit and look at the prices of property in the stronger economies of Germany and Switzerland. Worryingly, Ireland seems to be in an unnatural recession that is off kilter - proof: house prices do not reflect the true state of the domestic economy... and, btw, what happens if Germany is in fact heading towards its own recession - what then?

But sure, nevermind all that, lets just keep this artificial house bubble going, shall we? And jump for joy when a paper publishes big fat lies that the property is set to return to its healthy glow.. with the return of the invisible money from a healthy europe straight into Irish banks which will pour endlessly onto our laps so we can spend, spend, spend..

They'll be telling us soon that leprechauns are real and that's where the money is.. and politicians are going back to school to train as economists.. yeah, right!

Villa05

quad_red wrote: »

Put this all into perspective and what do you have?

The cheerleaders claim the recovery will be built on the back of people who are desperate for the 3 bed semi in Dublin cos they want to have families.

But if you have a child the amount of mortgage payment allowance you will get is down €250 p/m (according to BOI).

Add on another €100 p/m property tax on a €300k Dublin 3 bed semi.

Add on another €x p/m water rates.

Are people so stupid as to rush in now?

Best news I've heard on lending criteria, Finally some sane lending practices.

Would you prefer to spend €250p/m on you child or paying it to a bank for a mortgage

Japer

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

..there's a very good reason why the banks aren't lending, they know full well there's worse to come.

You mean after 3 or 4 more austerity budgets, more tax rises, interest rate increases, high property taxes, possible disintegration of the euro, possible tensions in the middle east leading to even higher oil prices, further reduction of public service wages before of after croke park "agreement" expires, possible industrial civil unrest etc....you mean worse is yet to come?

gurramok

Its the property tax slated to be payable next July that will really hammer values. They are supposed to be basing it on value, what that means is that every joe soap will want to pay less of the tax, every house owner will be lowering the value of their property out of concern for their own pocket.

quad_red

Villa05 wrote: »

Best news I've heard on lending criteria, Finally some sane lending practices.

Would you prefer to spend €250p/m on you child or paying it to a bank for a mortgage

Not at all. I'm merely saying that's what BOI told us last month.

In fairness, it's irrelevant to us. Cos what BOI think we could pay is around 25% more than I think we could comfortably handle.

(even with the reduction due to our sprog)

Zamboni

The Irish Independents view on property is utterly irrelevant.
Even if the people who buy the paper believe the information they won't have the financing options to act upon it.
It only worked the first time around because average Joe had access to capital.

riclad

Whens theres no fall in prices in dublin in 7 months you might say market has reached bottom, but the situation
is much worse in country towns ,wheres theres too much houses built and little demand ,ie at least in dublin you can always get a tenant and rent the house ,even if its in negative equity.
OF course houses were grossly overpriced ,at least people are no longer buying houses in athlone, and commutting to work 50 miles away.You dont have to take your info from one paper or source ,its easy to track price changes using the web.

sparrowcar

Zamboni wrote: »

The Irish Independents view on property is utterly irrelevant.
Even if the people who buy the paper believe the information they won't have the financing options to act upon it.
It only worked the first time around because average Joe had access to capital.

I get what you're saying but is that not a very broad statement.