TS / Hurricane Nadine

tomcosgrave

Tropical Storm Nadine has formed in the Atlantic and is looking set to develop into a hurricane soon enough.

It looks as though it will recurve and come nowhere near the US but instead will track back towards the east.


Models seem to suggest that this will wind (heh) up in the Bay of Biscay or else south of Ireland. Should be interesting to watch.

tylercollins

Seen on another forum that the models have this possibly hitting southern England in approx 10 days and is also being compared to "Great Storm of 1987".



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Storm_of_1987

maquiladora

tylercollins wrote: »

Seen on another forum that the models have this possibly hitting southern England in approx 10 days and is also being compared to "Great Storm of 1987".



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Storm_of_1987

10 days in terms of track and intensity of a tropical cyclone is a crazy long time. Sure the ECM at one stage was showing Leslie as Cat 5 hurricane west of Bermuda at 5 days out.

tylercollins

I'm aware that anything more than 5 days out is just talk and is subject to completely change, I maybe should of have been a bit more detailed in my reply lol

Sponge Bob

Maquiladora published a Hurricane Leslie ECM some 8 days out that was pretty damn good for 8 days out in retrospect. You may remember it..it hurt our heads.

maquiladora

tylercollins wrote: »

I'm aware that anything more than 5 days out is just talk and is subject to completely change, I maybe should of have been a bit more detailed in my reply lol

It will be an interesting one to watch anyway. I think the ECM is overdoing the intensity there though. Its done that with Leslie and Isaac already.

maquiladora

GFS ensembles for Nadine.



Morocco, Portugal, English Channel, Canada. Take your pick! :pac:

Iancar29

maquiladora wrote: »

GFS ensembles for Nadine.



Morocco, Portugal, English Channel, Canada. Take your pick! :pac:

The forecasters currently...

howlinwolf

headin to barcelona on monday the 24th ...any chance of this messing with my holiday ....please tell me no:)

Su Campu

The Azores looks like getting Nadine as a tropical storm Thursday/Friday.

Iancar29

I presume its best to post this in here now as its still far out rather than starting a new thread.


Though still A LOT of uncertainty ,current GFS has the remnants of Nadine merging with a separate low system as Nadine move north from the bay of Biscay for the start of next week. Bringing up alot of moisture with it , its certainly something to keep an eye on as it slows down as it gets to us bringing with its alot of rain and gusty winds at times so flooding would certainly be a risk according to this run imo.



Thoughts guys?

Cantona's Collars

Quick question,rather than starting a new thread.Will this have any impact on the weather for the Ploughing Championships (25-27th) ?

Sponge Bob

Watch this chart

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al142012.png

Iancar29

zerks wrote: »

Quick question,rather than starting a new thread.Will this have any impact on the weather for the Ploughing Championships (25-27th) ?

Yes, it's COULD be a horrible Tuesday indeed according to some models. Shall post up a longer post this evening when I get home from college but ATM all Main models now show a depression coming up from Ye south . But all 3 at different intensities .

M.T. Cranium

European model quite ferocious looking with the Nadine offshoot system, if by some freak of nature Nadine herself jumps forward into that position, it could hardly be any more intense than the scenario depicted. Low pressure deepens explosively over the central parts of Britain, northern Irish Sea and east Ulster by Monday night and this would draw in some very strong southwest gales across the southern half of Ireland, while spreading heavy rains across most of the country. The storm then loops back around to the south to complete its circuit and heads into France again by Tuesday night into Wednesday, but leaving Ireland under a moist northerly flow.

Su Campu

Nadine brought sustained winds of 50 knots, with gusts to 70 knots, at Horta, in the Azores, early this morning. Rainfall totals are up to around 70 mm for the past 24-36 hours.

Here's the ASCAT pass for last night.

Birdnuts

Going on the latest ECM Nadine appears to want to give Portugal a few belts from Thursday onwards. I have my doubts since I've never seen an Atlantic hurricane take such an "odd" path

maquiladora

Birdnuts wrote: »

Going on the latest ECM Nadine appears to want to give Portugal a few belts from Thursday onwards. I have my doubts since I've never seen an Atlantic hurricane take such an "odd" path

Well it would be an ex-tropical storm by that time if that scenario were to happen.

Several models show it heading southeast then turning back to the northeast, so its possible.

The GFS ensembles are split between taking to the Portugal/Europe, and taking it back to the west then recurving it into a more typical track.



There is a lot of uncertainties with the timing. Some models show it hanging around in roughly the same spot for the next week. Wouldn't bet on anything yet!

Iancar29

This image shows ALL named tropical storms that passed over land in Africa & Europe. Country-by-country stats, plus the Tropical Storm Nadine forecast/

maquiladora

Well, this is something a bit different.

000
WTNT44 KNHC 212036
TCDAT4

SUBTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST FRI SEP 21 2012

NADINE HAS UNDERGONE AN INTERESTING TRANSFORMATION DURING THE PAST
DAY OR SO. WHILE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED OVERALL...A BAND OF
MODERATE CONVECTION WRAPS AROUND THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
STORM. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS ALSO DEVELOPED CLOSE TO THE CENTER
OF NADINE...A RESULT OF ALL OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH INTERACTIONS
THAT THE CYCLONE HAS HAD RECENTLY. THE STORM HAS A LARGER-THAN-
AVERAGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND AN ASYMMETRIC WIND
DISTRIBUTION. ALTHOUGH IT IS TEMPTING TO DECLARE NADINE
POST-TROPICAL WITH THE DECAYING CONVECTION...THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO
FIT MOST OF THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...ALBEIT
FROM AN UNUSUAL WAY OF GETTING THERE. THE BEST ESTIMATE AT THIS
TIME IS THAT NADINE HAS BECOME SUBTROPICAL...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A
SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED
REMAINS 50 KT.

NADINE IS MOVING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KT. THE CYCLONE
SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST AS IT IS STEERED BY
A TROUGH OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. AFTER THE
TROUGH MOVES AWAY...HOWEVER...VERY LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED IN A
COUPLE DAYS TIME AS NADINE IS CAUGHT IN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS.
THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE NEXT TROUGH IN ABOUT 5
DAYS WILL FINALLY CAUSE THE STORM TO MOVE A BIT FASTER TO THE
NORTHEAST AND LOSE ANY REMAINING TROPICAL CHARACTERSTICS. THE NHC
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS...GEFS...ECMWF...FIM...AND
FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLES. THIS RESULTS IN A MORE SOUTHWARD
TRACK EARLY ON...SMALL CHANGES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST...AND
AN EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT DAY 5.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CHALLENGING AND IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE.
VERY COLD UPPER-LEVEL TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE SUPPORTING THE
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IN COMBINATION WITH MARGINAL SSTS...
ALTHOUGH THE WATERS SHOULD BE WARMING WITH TIME. MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH OR A SLIGHTLY WEAKER
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS BUILD AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR NADINE...WHICH COULD
FACILITATE A TRANSITION BACK TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WHILE THE SYSTEM
IS OVER MARGINAL SSTS. IT WOULD ALSO NOT BE SURPRISING IF IT
DECAYED INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AT ANY TIME.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 33.0N 27.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 31.6N 26.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 30.6N 25.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 30.5N 25.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 30.8N 24.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 31.7N 25.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 32.5N 24.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 32.5N 21.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Sponge Bob

Nadine went post tropical and is drifting south and showing signs of regenerating as a tropical system again. No idea where it will be in 5 days TBH

From the NHC this AM

200 AM EDT SUN SEP 23 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE NEAR THE CENTER
OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM
INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES OVER WARMER
WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

maquiladora

Nadine went from tropical to subtropical to post-tropical...and now she is tropical again, and forecast to become a hurricane in a few days.

Sponge Bob

She is still a TS and is A few days off regaining hurricane strenghth...if ever. Forecast to head south into warmer waters first.

Sponge Bob

Latest from NHC, she went south, warmed, strenghtened , turned and!!!!

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 63
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST FRI SEP 28 2012

...NADINE ALMOST A HURRICANE AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

---

LOCATION...29.0N 34.1W
ABOUT 745 MI...1195 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

Wolfe_IRE

V_Moth

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Latest from NHC, she went south, warmed, strenghtened , turned and!!!!

I wonder if this system is going to break the record for longest lived Hurricane/TS?

One thing I have noticed in the last couple of years is the number of Low Pressure systems forming around the Canaries and hitting Ireland/Britain, especially in late summer. I wonder if with increasing water temperatures in the region we will start getting our own Hurricanes?

Sponge Bob

V_Moth wrote: »

I wonder if this system is going to break the record for longest lived Hurricane/TS?

Certainly not until next week. 20 Days plus required and Nadines first advisory was issued 11/09/12

see > http://www.hurricane.com/hurricane-records.php

Sponge Bob

And back up to Category 1 again. Latest Advisory.

NADINE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Su Campu

V_Moth wrote: »

I wonder if this system is going to break the record for longest lived Hurricane/TS?

One thing I have noticed in the last couple of years is the number of Low Pressure systems forming around the Canaries and hitting Ireland/Britain, especially in late summer. I wonder if with increasing water temperatures in the region we will start getting our own Hurricanes?

What region is seeing increasing water temperatures? You need at least 26.5 °C water for hurricanes to develop/sustain themselves. Seas that warm currently only reach as far north around 35 °N in the eastern Atlantic. Also, at our latitude the normal westerlies bring too much shear for tropical storms to survive. This is why we don't and will never get them here.

Here's the current SST anomaly, showing the eastern Atlantic persistently below normal for the past few months.

Nabber

ECMWF has what looks like the leftover heading for South West Ireland
It's a long way out. Way out in fact

maquiladora

Su Campu wrote: »

What region is seeing increasing water temperatures?

Perhaps he means over a much longer time period than the past few months.



Still, I doubt we'll be seeing Gerry Murphy talking about a hurricane in the Irish Sea anytime soon...