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Celtic Tiger Time Machine
Comments
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Cavehill Red wrote: »Good, so we're agreed he wasn't responsible for the bank guarantee.
To add to this, David Murphy's book Banksters, which is the best account of those events currently available, clarifies that McWilliams never argued for an open-ended guarantee, and that it was also opposed by the civil servants in Finance, which leaves Lenihan, the cabinet responsible for listening to the banks themselves, the only people who, naturally enough, were seeking an open-ended guarantee.
Don't think you're right there.
I think on the night in question AIB and BOI wanted Anglo Irish nationalised. Over the previous few days Anglo had asked these two banks to take them over.0 -
Good loser wrote: »Don't think you're right there.
I think on the night in question AIB and BOI wanted Anglo Irish nationalised. Over the previous few days Anglo had asked these two banks to take them over.
It's a while since I was reading about all this, but that sounds right. The nationalisation of Anglo can be separated from the guarantee issue somewhat though.0 -
Cavehill Red wrote: »Good, so we're agreed he wasn't responsible for the bank guarantee.
To add to this, David Murphy's book Banksters, which is the best account of those events currently available, clarifies that McWilliams never argued for an open-ended guarantee, and that it was also opposed by the civil servants in Finance, which leaves Lenihan, the cabinet responsible for listening to the banks themselves, the only people who, naturally enough, were seeking an open-ended guarantee.
You can argue if McWilliams was the one to convince Lenihan or not. Certainly McWilliams believes he was. He also called for it in public.
"The only option is to guarantee 100 per cent of all depositors/creditors in the Irish banking system. This guarantee does not extend to shareholders who will have to live with the losses they have suffered. However, it applies to everyone else.
The decisions facing the cabinet are the most momentous any government has had to make in this country for many years. The right one for Ireland is a 100 per cent guarantee of all deposits."
So far we have McWilliams saying in 1999 that the bubble bursting was imminent. Someone who bought in 1999 would now have their house paid off with the amount they saved in rent.
In 2005 saying rents would continue to go up and basically to ignore the economists who said otherwise. God help anyone who went with that advice. That was probably the last chance investors had to sell.
Finally he called for the government to "100% guarantee all deposits"
Not many economists got things as wrong as he did yet he is quoted on this thread as someone the Irish people should have listened to.0 -
I'm not here to defend McWilliams. I've always been of the school of thought that he predicted 15 of the last 2 recessions. All I'm saying is that he was not responsible for the open-ended bank guarantee and the nationalisation of banking debts. Brian Lenihan and the FF/Green government were.0
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Toshchiy Imperatritsy Vselennoy wrote: »Rewrite banking regulation and enforce it.
Correctly asess bank debt.
Make sure that money is only borrowed against properly collateralized assets and make certain that debt is properly collateralized.
Make certain all repo contracts issued by the ECB to Irish banks are only given to solevent banks that can actually repay them.
NOT rely on credit rating agencies for audits and regulation.
Insist that all not compromise their collatarel because they have securities notlimite tothe country of issue.
Insist upon proper separation of powers between regulatory bodies , credit rating agencies ,banks, corportions/borrowers/evelopers etc and politicians.
Who will do this ?Toshchiy Imperatritsy Vselennoy wrote: »Try to regain coontrol of our interest rates.
that would mean leaving the Euro. whoi would set the intrest rate?Toshchiy Imperatritsy Vselennoy wrote: »ABOVE ALL ALLOCATE SUFFICIENT PERCENTAGE OF NATIONAL INCOME TO SERVICING DEBT!
no government is going to do this they only want to spend money not repay it.Toshchiy Imperatritsy Vselennoy wrote: »Attempt to regulate the building idustry and developers by only granting loans to those who have proven they can service them when such loans are over a certain amount. Make certain that these conditions are sufficiently stringent.
Cannot see any government going for that. shoulds like state run banks to me.Toshchiy Imperatritsy Vselennoy wrote: »Fire Patrick Honohan as regulator and get someone in who is not an idiot.
Goverments were happy with what he did as long as the boom continued so not much chance of him being faired.Toshchiy Imperatritsy Vselennoy wrote: »Get rid of Fianna Fáil.
How are you going to get rid of a democracy elected party. Dictatorship?Toshchiy Imperatritsy Vselennoy wrote: »Introduce better credit asessment for personnal debt and mortages.
again sound like state controlled banksToshchiy Imperatritsy Vselennoy wrote: »Introduce rent control.
how would that help?????Toshchiy Imperatritsy Vselennoy wrote: »Introduce better savings schemes to help people save.
Charlie Mcreavy did that. The present government said they want people to borrow and spend and stop paying off debts and saving.Toshchiy Imperatritsy Vselennoy wrote: »Differentiate the types of houses built more , 2 beds 3 beds 4 beds no garden one garden etc ....this could help create a tiered price system for people to get on the ladder..
it is more the locationof a house that the type that decides price.Toshchiy Imperatritsy Vselennoy wrote: »Introduce competition in the building industry.
There already is competition in the building industry.Toshchiy Imperatritsy Vselennoy wrote: »Attempt to end the quango between the banks the govt and developers.
it more of a cartel that a quango. How are you going to end it?Toshchiy Imperatritsy Vselennoy wrote: »Attempt to control inflation..
How ? inflation is now defined by the consumer price index.
With control of our own currency control of inflation is not possible.Toshchiy Imperatritsy Vselennoy wrote: »Ensure revenue due from tax in actually paid at all levels in society and in all industries.
not possible to collect 100% of taxes due.Toshchiy Imperatritsy Vselennoy wrote: »Attempt to stamp out Govt corruption and raise the standard of ethics in politics.
Not possible when we keep electing corrupt politicians. corruption like poverty will always be with us.Toshchiy Imperatritsy Vselennoy wrote: »What do you think????
Political parties would never agree to it.
Most of what you asked for could not be done in a democracy.
Even in a dictatorship it would fail.0 -
he did get the timing wrong but he was right that price would not plateau out.David McWilliams is like the bible, you can quote him to prove anything. He says a lot without saying anything. Even in that clip from 1999 he says the bubble would burst in 18 months. When Gay asks about other economists saying the boom would last 5 years, McWilliams laughs. He was wrong on that one.How about this from September 2005, shortly before the bubble actually did burst
Specific market and financial concerns aside, the most important factor driving rents over the next year will be the immigrants in the Spar Generation. They are the people that will generate extra demand, and it is the extra demand rather than the expected demand that will determine the direction of rents in the future. Immigration is driven by push and pull factors. The push factors driving young people out of central Europe in particular will continue as their economies fail to generate sufficient opportunities. Where the economies are growing such as Poland and the Baltics, they are not creating sufficient jobs so a significant proportion of the young labour will emigrate. In terms of the pull factors, Dublin was this year ranked in an international survey as the easiest place in Europe to get a job. So with the economy set to grow by 5%, job opportunities will be plentiful. The only clouds are oil prices at over $60 dollars a barrel which may slow things down but not substantially as interest rates will stay low. This is not to say that there is great value in the housing market, clearly there is not; but cheap money and profligate bank lending should preserve the 'good times' for a while longer.
Finally, I am writing this overview from an internet café in Dublin. If you want to see the future for the rental market and particularly the foreign component that will drive it, spend a few hours in an internet café. Here you will see the rental market, with their pre-paid mobiles, hotmail addresses and MSN chat rooms. Next time you are worried about the direction of the market, drop in to a place like this and then go around the corner to Spar. If both are packed and busy, forget most of the hi-faluting economic commentary, feel the energy, drive and rental capacity of the immigrants and make your own calculations."
Yeah, if only I was smart enough to listen to McWilliams, I could have bought a property to rent out in 2005. I feel so stupid now.
He was right the boom did continue for a while longer and it did crash like he said it would.
Would not have made much sense buying in to a market that he said was going to crash.He was the one responsible for the bank guarantee
So you were just as much to blame as anyone else. You should have been clearer that you were as culpable as any other voter
McWilliams, advised only to guarantee Bank deposits, not the bank loans or bonds
As one of many voters I an in part responsible too. as I said I voted and I said the voters were responsible that includes me.0 -
So far we have McWilliams saying in 1999 that the bubble bursting was imminent. Someone who bought in 1999 would now have their house paid off with the amount they saved in rent.
In 2005 saying rents would continue to go up and basically to ignore the economists who said otherwise. God help anyone who went with that advice. That was probably the last chance investors had to sell.
Finally he called for the government to "100% guarantee all deposits"
Not many economists got things as wrong as he did yet he is quoted on this thread as someone the Irish people should have listened to.
McWilliams was not advising investors how to invest he was advising the government that they need to do something to stop the boom before it crashed.
if they had stop the boom in 1999 when he warned there was a problem, they would not have been asked guarantee banks.0
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