*** Heavy Rain and High Winds for many as Storm approaches(Mon 24th - Tues 25th Sept)

DOCARCH · 22-09-2012 6:35am

snaps wrote: »

so we still don't know what's happening in 48 hours time? That's gas.

What's new!

As WC says, atm, Monday through to Wednesday now looks very wet for the east coast. All my cahnge again of course!

maquiladora · 22-09-2012 9:27am

0Z GFS is very different to the 18Z.

Accumulated rainfall to next Friday has over 120mm of rain for parts of eastern Ireland and over 130mm for parts of Wales.

Windy everywhere with gales in some coastal regions if this came off.

We'll see what changes with the 06Z models soon.

Just as a comparison, here is what the GEM is showing for the same time as the GFS above :

Redsunset · 22-09-2012 10:00am

Yes horrendous conditions on the 00z. Here's a gif showing some of that proposed rainfall for the archives just in case it does happen. Probably be gone on next run.

maquiladora · 22-09-2012 10:21am

ninebeanrows · 22-09-2012 10:53am

Really looks wet Monday into Tuesday on the latest GFS east and northeast look most at risk. Potential for up to 50-100mm over a 24hr period so certainly worth keeping a very concerned eye on this set up.

Iancar29 · 22-09-2012 11:04am

Yep , could be bad if any of that rain arrives with gusty winds . Gusts in the 60mph region possible for the N & NW too. I think this warrants a Level One now at least.

maquiladora · 22-09-2012 11:08am

No real change to track/intensity of the low on the 06Z GFS.

Redsunset · 22-09-2012 11:20am

Iancar29 wrote: »

I think this warrants a Level One now at least.

I think the situation is still too uncertain for that. Needs beefing up in a few more runs. The heavy rain over east and north east and strong gusts could downgrade.

maquiladora · 22-09-2012 12:17pm

UK Met Office update.

maquiladora · 22-09-2012 12:39pm

Interesting 06Z HIRLAM. It tracks the low further west than the GFS, NAE etc.

A big difference in the rainfall.

Over 50mm of rain for parts of Ulster falling in less than 24 hours here.

Much more than what the GFS is showing for the same time:

ninebeanrows · 22-09-2012 1:12pm

Meteociel charts show widely 40-50mm and 70mm along northeast coast.

Look for accumulated precip in the high res GFS

Redsunset · 22-09-2012 1:22pm

Hi Res image of the developing low.

srmambo · 22-09-2012 2:50pm

Looks like a pretty exciting scenario unfolding. Does this storm bear any similarities to the storm on September 6th 2010 or the torrential rainfall on October 2011?

Deep Easterly · 22-09-2012 4:08pm

srmambo wrote: »

Looks like a pretty exciting scenario unfolding. Does this storm bear any similarities to the storm on September 6th 2010 or the torrential rainfall on October 2011?

Not really Srmambo, although those 2 systems you mention were relatviely similar in set up themselves. This one seems quite different in that it is moving up from south or SSW, which is most unusual (but not unprecedented) for such an intense depression in this part of the world.

Close up of the low center at 1200 UTC today. Beautiful looking structure.

maquiladora · 22-09-2012 4:24pm

Comparing the latest runs of hi-res models HIRLAM and NAE, there is a 400km difference on the position of the center of the low at midday Monday.

Trying to predict where the heaviest rain will be and for how long seems really hard when there is still disagreement like that.

Ireland could get away with very little rain compared to the UK, or we could get an absolute drenching.

Redsunset · 22-09-2012 4:50pm

Correct Maq, we could very well still escape the worst of this or be under a threat of some flooding with locally high rainfall totals in strong gusty conditions at times.
Surely by tomorrow the track will be nailed.

maquiladora · 22-09-2012 5:20pm

Redsunset wrote: »

Correct Maq, we could very well still escape the worst of this or be under a threat of some flooding with locally high rainfall totals in strong gusty conditions at times.
Surely by tomorrow the track will be nailed.

And that's exactly what the 12Z GFS is showing now. The precipitation accumulation for the east coast at 90 hours is now 14mm. On the last run the same spot shows over 60mm. Bit of a difference!

Will be interesting to see what the 12Z HIRLAM shows.

Edit : Here is the 12Z HIRLAM, showing a lot more rain for the North and East than the GFS is.

Redsunset · 22-09-2012 8:11pm

Latest BBC weather update video

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/19687222

up for anything · 22-09-2012 9:49pm

It better rain now and good. I just spent the best part of three hours clearing the accumulation and growth of what looks like twenty years out of the gutter. :mad:

maquiladora · 22-09-2012 10:04pm

up for anything wrote: »

It better rain now and good. I just spent the best part of three hours clearing the accumulation and growth of what looks like twenty years out of the gutter. :mad:

Are you in Kilkenny? I wouldn't expect much rain there at all.

It's really the east/north that is at risk of the heavy rain.

200motels · 22-09-2012 10:07pm

I'd say we here in Waterford could escape the worst of it.

Redsunset · 22-09-2012 10:33pm

Ah I think most rainfall is really only for the North of the country. Seems to be hitting the UK full whack.

Deep Easterly · 22-09-2012 11:16pm

Redsunset wrote: »

Ah I think most rainfall is really only for the North of the country. Seems to be hitting the UK full whack.

Although no way near as potent, the set up that the ECM is showing for the mid week period is not overly dissimilar to that which brought those frequent thundery showers to the east coast in either Oct 03 or 04.

leahyl · 22-09-2012 11:25pm

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Redsunset wrote: »

Ah I think most rainfall is really only for the North of the country. Seems to be hitting the UK full whack.

Although no way near as potent, the set up that the ECM is showing for the mid week period is not overly dissimilar to that which brought those frequent thundery showers to the east coast in either Oct 03 or 04.

Showers on the east coast?! I seem to remember Cork City being under water in Oct 03 alright....

Deep Easterly · 22-09-2012 11:30pm

leahyl wrote: »

Showers on the east coast?! I seem to remember Cork City being under water in Oct 03 alright....

Was there ever a time that is wasn't???

Edit: Cork City washed out in Oct 2004 alright; shower event in the east was in Oct 2003:

http://www.met.ie/climate/monthlyBulletins/oct04.pdf
http://www.met.ie/climate/monthlyBulletins/oct03.pdf

Oscar Bravo · 22-09-2012 11:52pm

Its fast approaching five to midnight so lets head over to Met Eireann for the very latest on Rte Radio1 /Sky 0160.

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 22-09-2012 11:56pm

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Its fast approaching five to midnight so lets head over to Met Eireann for the very latest on Rte Radio1 /Sky 0160.

They did mention heavy rain for the east coast alright

up for anything · 23-09-2012 12:03am

maquiladora wrote: »

Are you in Kilkenny? I wouldn't expect much rain there at all. It's really the east/north that is at risk of the heavy rain.

Yeah, Kilkenny. Damn, I thought we were going to get it. It must have been an earlier forecast I was reading or something. All that work for nowt!

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 23-09-2012 12:07am

up for anything wrote: »

Yeah, Kilkenny. Damn, I thought we were going to get it. It must have been an earlier forecast I was reading or something. All that work for nowt!

Sure its done now and ya get brownie points for doing it ! :pac:

redsteveireland · 23-09-2012 12:16am

up for anything wrote: »

Yeah, Kilkenny. Damn, I thought we were going to get it. It must have been an earlier forecast I was reading or something. All that work for nowt!

Brownie points and I'd rather do it now before it gets colder!

Met Eireann are giving heavy rain tomorrow night and Monday for the west. Does this match the latest model runs?

*** Heavy Rain and High Winds for many as Storm approaches(Mon 24th - Tues 25th Sept)

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