Autumn/Winter FI Charts 2012/13

MiNdGaM3

Thought these fantasy charts deserved a thread of their own like last winter.
Just remember, these are for fun, and 99% of the time won't work out.

From the distant lands of t384 on todays GFS 12z, we have this!





Quite a few ensembles brewing up some potent northerlies at the very end of their runs:)

weathermaiden

I have nothing to add whatsoever but I wanted to say I am so excited to see an FI chart thread... so thank you for starting this. Even though most of it will never materialise, it's my grownup equivalent of wondering what Santa will bring me and if I'll hear reindeer on the roof this year.

sparrowcar

MiNdGaM3 wrote: »

Thought these fantasy charts deserved a thread of their own like last winter.
Just remember, these are for fun, and 99% of the time won't work out

It's a bit more like 97%

Wolfe_IRE

Below is the tail end of the 12Z ECMWF showing 850hpas (upper air temps). For comparison sake, I have copied the same day (Friday of next week) from the GFS to show how the models can differ 10 days out. That is why the Fantasy Island (FI) model thread is exactly so called.

ECM


GFS


I have been looking at these charts for only three years and admittedly, I spent much of the first year or more ignoring the least desirable outcome and siding with the chart that was most in line with the forecast I wanted to see I.E. wishcasting. Hence, you rarely if ever see a chart in the Winter FI thread depicting mild weather. The only way of looking at any long range chart is to compare it to others for the same time period and to look for divergences and comparisons in the intervening period. There are some who excel at this beyond the 5 day period, and I tip my hat to them.

To put the FI charts into context, we must also consider the wild fluctuations that can occur between one run and the next of any given model. Take a look at the below GFS depictions of where the jetstream will be located on 11 Oct. The first chart from the 6z run today shows the jetstream located well to our north while the second chart from the 12z shows the jetsream more or less over us.


This typifies the challenges that MT faces on a daily basis as he grapples with the long range weather forecasts. The fact that his success ratio is so great is testament to his model reading skills.

tylercollins

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

Below is the tail end of the 12Z ECMWF showing 850hpas (upper air temps). For comparison sake, I have copied the same day (Friday of next week) from the GFS to show how the models can differ 10 days out. That is why the Fantasy Island (FI) model thread is exactly so called.

I have been looking at these charts for only three years and admittedly, I spent much of the first year or more ignoring the least desirable outcome and siding with the chart that was most in line with the forecast I wanted to see I.E. wishcasting. Hence, you rarely if ever see a chart in the Winter FI thread depicting mild weather. The only way of looking at any long range chart is to compare it to others for the same time period and to look for divergences and comparisons in the intervening period. There are some who excel at this beyond the 5 day period, and I tip my hat to them.

To put the FI charts into context, we must also consider the wild fluctuations that can occur between one run and the next of any given model. Take a look at the below GFS depictions of where the jetstream will be located on 11 Oct. The first chart from the 6z run today shows the jetstream located well to our north while the second chart from the 12z shows the jetsream more or less over us.


This typifies the challenges that MT faces on a daily basis as he grapples with the long range weather forecasts. The fact that his success ratio is so great is testament to his model reading skills.

Great to see you back and thanks for the post!

maquiladora

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

GFS

Hi Wolfe. Long time no see.

This chart isn't actually the GFS operational run. It's the control run for the ensembles, which is essentially the operational but run at a lower resolution (the same resolution as the ensembles). At that range it can often look totally different to the operational run.

This is the GFS operational for 240 hours (dynamic link, so will change)

Tom Cruises Left Nut

I love this thread every year !! :pac:

* Heads off chart hunting

srmambo

The T348 on the 12Z GFS chart is beautiful

Sponge Bob

This is THE thread for all Vogan related material. I can tell.

MiNdGaM3

First sign of the fabled "Beast from the East"!?

Elmer Blooker

Who wants an easterly now when the continent isn't even cold yet - a waste.
This is my idea of a FI Autumn / Winter chart. I still hoping for a 20c+ in October and this chart could deliver especially in the Dublin area.

MiNdGaM3

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Who wants an easterly now when the continent isn't even cold yet - a waste.
This is my idea of a FI Autumn / Winter chart. I still hoping for a 20c+ in October and this chart could deliver especially in the Dublin area.

Plenty cold in Scandinavia, which is what we want off a north easterly!

srmambo

12Z shows a very nice looking northwesterly airflow blowing low temperatures down to us.



Unfortunately this is for Sunday 14th so it is albeit deep in FI.

ZX7R

Can anybody tell me witch site that you are finding these long range charts ,i have been useing the site su campu has in his how to read winter charts but none of the charts go so far out in FI thanks

Iancar29

ZX7R wrote: »

Can anybody tell me witch site that you are finding these long range charts ,i have been useing the site su campu has in his how to read winter charts but none of the charts go so far out in FI thanks

Hey ZX7R ( ps why the odd username ?)
GO to http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=1 and for the model type you wish to view , the first set goes to +192 hrs.. then press "suite"... to go to the next set which goes out to +384 hrs


ANd heres the latest ensembles... which certainly still shows a cool down next week ( like CFS hinted a from a few weeks back ) ... could certainly bring more frost back if that where to happen

NIALL D

he/she is a motorbike ian
http://www.google.ie/search?hl=en&sugexp=les%3B&cp=4&gs_id=e&xhr=t&q=zx7r&rlz=1R2GGHP_enIE417&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.&biw=1019&bih=522&wrapid=tljp134921615054906&um=1&ie=UTF-8&tbm=isch&source=og&sa=N&tab=wi&ei=YWhrUJWuGcjIhAfgyYH4Cg

Iancar29

NIALL D wrote: »

he/she is a motorbike ian
http://www.google.ie/search?hl=en&sugexp=les%3B&cp=4&gs_id=e&xhr=t&q=zx7r&rlz=1R2GGHP_enIE417&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.&biw=1019&bih=522&wrapid=tljp134921615054906&um=1&ie=UTF-8&tbm=isch&source=og&sa=N&tab=wi&ei=YWhrUJWuGcjIhAfgyYH4Cg

Drool!! ... surely a person owning that bike doesn't wish snow/ice upon them???? ha

ZX7R

Thanks Iancar ,niall d is correct i got the name from the type of mortor cycle i have ,sadly i dont have as much time for the bikes now ,i have six month old twins ,The weather is a safer hobbie [sometimes:)] Only use her once or twice a week now...

ZX7R

Iancar29 wrote: »

Drool!! ... surely a person owning that bike doesn't wish snow/ice upon them???? ha

Once you have the proper winter gear you normaly dont feel the cold,also reading the weather charts ,reading m.c forcast and reading fellow posters makes bikeing a lot safer all year round most so in the winter, i am surprised there are not more bikers intrested in the weather

srmambo

+129 hour 06Z GFS charts show a northwesterly breeze with very low temperatures



This seems quite likely as it is not too deep in the Fantasy Island area, but it is still advised that it be taken with a pinch of salt.

catch.23

srmambo wrote: »

+129 hour 06Z GFS charts show a northwesterly breeze with very low temperatures



This seems quite likely as it is not too deep in the Fantasy Island area, but it is still advised that it be taken with a pinch of salt.

That chart would give daytime temps around 10C, hardly very low.

catch.23

Iancar29 wrote: »

ANd heres the latest ensembles... which certainly still shows a cool down next week ( like CFS hinted a from a few weeks back ) ... could certainly bring more frost back if that where to happen

I wouldn't get too excited about (air) frost if the 2m temps are anything to go by, maybe -0.1 if some of the more extreme ensembles are right!

catch.23

I love the CFS :P

White Christmas (above 250m ) anyone?!

srmambo

catch.23 wrote: »

I love the CFS :P

White Christmas (above 250m ) anyone?!

What are the chances of these charts being correct about their forecast?

catch.23

srmambo wrote: »

What are the chances of these charts being correct about their forecast?

Practically zero. It's more or less an experimental model, which can occasionally get a trend for a certain weather pattern correct a month or two in advance. Don't set any store in it, the next run could show Christmas day being a balmy 16 degrees!

srmambo

catch.23 wrote: »

Practically zero. It's more or less an experimental model, which can occasionally get a trend for a certain weather pattern correct a month or two in advance. Don't set any store in it, the next run could show Christmas day being a balmy 16 degrees!

Fantasy island to the extreme :P. Thanks for the explanation.

Redsunset

Hi srmambo,

Just want to make sure you understand the charts your posting when you say very low temps approaching.
They are 850 hpa temperatures which is roughly 1500 metres overhead. Depending on air pressure it can be much lower in height. ie low pressure.

Get these temperatures down to minus 8 or more from an prolonged easterly flow to give sea level folks a chance of seeing proper snow and not sleet and then we're looking at something.

And once it comes into reliable timeframe (Debatable) then we're laughing. .

cherryghost

Bit OT but thought it was hilarious.

JMA going for Doomsday today. Anyone noticed anything unusual? :P

Wolfe_IRE

cherryghost wrote: »

Bit OT but thought it was hilarious.

JMA going for Doomsday today. Anyone noticed anything unusual? :P

Despite the freezing Saharan desert and dripping polar icecap, I see nothing unusual about Ireland's mild muck

maquiladora

cherryghost wrote: »

Bit OT but thought it was hilarious.

JMA going for Doomsday today. Anyone noticed anything unusual? :P

Time to pack my summer clothes and book flights to the North Cape.

:cool:

srmambo

maquiladora wrote: »

Time to pack my summer clothes and book flights to the North Cape.

:cool:

The chart shows what looks like Ireland's dream of an Indian summer come true.