Autumn/Winter FI Charts 2012/13

patneve2

Well, the 12z GFS shows an upgrade in the short term with easterly winds and precipitation on the E. Coast. This was to be expected as the 06z ensembles showed that this morning's GFS run was a mild outlier (in the short term). Now, lets see where it goes from here.

oops wrong thread...

kkontour

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Bank !

Nabber

We are still no closer to resolving this.

At 144hrs the UKMO, ECMWF & GFS are worlds apart.
To be honest I think the GFS is the one to watch, purely because it looks right for our weather pattern and more beleivable. The SSW is not the ace of spades, still pot luck if you get want you want from it.
The eyecandy charts are still out in +300hr frame.

Interesting times all the same

UKMO


ECMWF


GFS

cherryghost

Oh hello.

Conor30

The Ultimate FI!! (From the Moscow model!):p:p:p:p

TILT!

Daniel2590

Conor30 wrote: »

The Ultimate FI!! (From the Moscow model!):p:p:p:p

Has this updated?

maquiladora

Daniel2590 wrote: »

Has this updated?

Yes. Dynamic images can look pretty funny in these threads after the model updates to something erm less dramatic.

kkontour

Looks like the north pole is gone!

Fluffycloud

Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrttt cold looking at chart. Two duvets on my bed.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Gwan P5



Hup there ya boyo P12

Tom Cruises Left Nut

P16, ya little tease ya

Snowmaker

whoooaaa... Perturbation 15 on the 12z GEFS is coooolll!
Yeh, yeh! Perturbation 15 rocks!! boi-oi-oi-oi-oinnnggggg!!...hehehe, yeh... hehe.. you said perturbation...

BEASTERLY

Storm for the South East! Long may the undercutting continue!

Elmer Blooker

The return of the Russian monster high?
MT mentioned a big high in the Finland/ NW Russia area in his freezing Feb prediction a few days ago and I suggested in December that very large winter anticyclones have a habit of re establishing in more or less the same area.
Both GFS and ECM show this high at +216 but whether it continues on future runs is another matter altogether. We'll live in hope.

Daniel2590

Take a look at the CFS from around +600 on.. how's that for some eye candy



-16 850s over the east and north. -22 850s reaching south east UK :eek:

Spindle

Daniel2590 wrote: »

Take a look at the CFS from around +600 on.. how's that for some eye candy



-16 850s over the east and north. -22 850s reaching south east UK :eek:

:eek::eek:

If only +600 is about as FI as you can get when FI at the moment is around 96+ or even less.

BEASTERLY

18z FI looks fun!

pistolpetes11

BEASTERLY wrote: »

18z FI looks fun!

Ive pretty much given up on anything from this "spell" , kinda had from get go but like yourself I see me some FI Candy

Weathering

That would be the real mc coy there pete
No more despising what the English are getting if that happens

Nabber

Why hello mr Azores, you killed us last year. But I'll take this please

maquiladora

A few of the GFS ensembles has thrown up the most intense Atlantic low I have ever seen in 8 years of model watching, and not in distant FI, but on day 5.





Yes, thats 915mb. And that on a low res chart, in reality the pressure would even be a bit lower than that.

To put that into context, the historic 1839 'Night Of The Big Wind' storm was estimated to have reached between 918mb to 930mb at it's most intense.

Even some major Cat 5 hurricanes like Andrew never reached 915mb. Simply amazing to see a non-tropical Atlantic low with that kind of pressure, even if it is only on GFS ensembles charts.

whitebriar

maquiladora wrote: »

A few of the GFS ensembles has thrown up the most intense Atlantic low I have ever seen in 8 years of model watching, and not in distant FI, but on day 5.





Yes, thats 915mb. And that on a low res chart, in reality the pressure would even be a bit lower than that.

To put that into context, the historic 1839 'Night Of The Big Wind' storm was estimated to have reached between 918mb to 930mb at it's most intense.

Even some major Cat 5 hurricanes like Andrew never reached 915mb. Simply amazing to see a non-tropical Atlantic low with that kind of pressure, even if it is only on GFS ensembles charts.

It makes some sort of sense,I suppose when you have much colder than usual air modeled into a warm atlantic.

tomcosgrave

I take it Maq, that the low will not be that extreme though, even though it's modelled for only 5 days out?

maquiladora

tomcosgrave wrote: »

I take it Maq, that the low will not be that extreme though, even though it's modelled for only 5 days out?

The current 12Z GFS op brings it down to 920mb.



There would need to be a fairly significant shift in track for it to seriously impact us though. It's just interesting to see from a model watching point of view.

A chart showing the 1839 storm for comparison.

tomcosgrave

I just wonder if it's not distorted, given it's winter and not hurricane season etc.

Nabber

It can't go much lower than it is. But if it maintains it's shape, we maybe looking at an extra colour added into the charts to represent it's wind speeds

maquiladora

tomcosgrave wrote: »

I just wonder if it's not distorted, given it's winter and not hurricane season etc.

As whitebriar said above, it's due to unusual situation of much colder air than usual moving into the Atlantic, allowing extreme cyclogenesis.

cherryghost

Just for the record, the lowest pressure system ever recorded was Super Typhoon Tip in 1979, when it dipped to 870mb