Autumn/Winter FI Charts 2012/13

maquiladora

cherryghost wrote: »

Just for the record, the lowest pressure system ever recorded was Super Typhoon Tip in 1979, when it dipped to 870mb

That was a tropical system though.

The most intense extratropical cyclone on record for the northern Atlantic ocean was the Braer Storm of January 1993 with an estimated pressure of 914mb, and estimated sustained winds of 190 km/h. Also noticed this on the wiki page for that : "This cyclone was slightly stronger than an intense low pressure area which moved near Greenland on December 14–15, 1986, which was the strongest extratropical cyclone known to occur across the northern Atlantic ocean at that time. Only three prior extratropical storms across the north Atlantic, and one since, have attained central pressures below 930 millibars (27 inHg)."

Here is what it looked like.



There was also a lot of very cold air reaching into the Atlantic then too, it looks like a similar setup.





Anyway, the 12Z ensembles beat the 06Z and manage to somehow go one step crazier and create this....

Fluffycloud

Wow! Sorry to ask a silly question but what does that mean for Ireland? I daren't mention the s .... Word.

maquiladora

Fluffycloud wrote: »

Wow! Sorry to ask a silly question but what does that mean for Ireland? I daren't mention the s .... Word.

Just rain and wind, but not too much wind since it is well to the west of us there during it's most intense phase.

maquiladora

Another view of the 12Z GFS op run showing the pressure down to 917.9mb at 120 hours.



And the 06Z GFS run which actually got done to 915.8mb itself, never mind the ensembles.



Amazing charts.

aboyro

Throughout the early 90's i kept a daily diary of weather and surf conditions, i pasted the weather from the indo everyday into this diary. To this day that date in 1993 is my favorite.the indo read it as 916mbs and if i remember correctly the mv brear (which was full of oil) that ran aground in the hebridies/orkneys,The wind was so intense that there was almost zero to clean up!!!!!!!!!!

maquiladora

aboyro wrote: »

Throughout the early 90's i kept a daily diary of weather and surf conditions, i pasted the weather from the indo everyday into this diary. To this day that date in 1993 is my favorite.the indo read it as 916mbs and if i remember correctly the mv brear (which was full of oil) that ran aground in the hebridies/orkneys,The wind was so intense that there was almost zero to clean up!!!!!!!!!!

Thats right the Braer was stranded on rocks already and the waves and hurricane force winds from that storm broke it up. "The lowest recorded mean sea level pressure in the world outside of tropical storms and the centres of tornadoes." Pretty amazing to see GFS charts within a couple of mb of it and even some ensembles showing an even deeper low.

maquiladora

The Met Office chart at 120 hours brings it to 926mb. The 18Z GFS has it peaking before then at 919mb.

I'd still consider it FI at the moment though, and it doesn't really impact us unless it ends up further east. Interesting one to watch though!



Amazing ensemble plot for south of Iceland. Never seen almost all the ensembles dragging the mean line down off the page like that before.

Harps

The single most intense non-tropical storm in recorded history.. :pac:

123 LC

any models looking good in terms of snow in FI in february yet?

ZX7R

Extream FI but maybe M.T is on to something for february

Elmer Blooker

That big Russian high is back. I know I'm clutching at straws with the charts so gruesome at the moment but lets wait and see if a trend develops?
a lot of warm air being pumped towards the Arctic. I'm no expert on WAA but I do know it can lead to a height rise where we want it
* first post in FI thread for almost 24 hours - I wonder why?

Elmer Blooker

this is a big improvement.
at least we're not looking at a southwesterly hair dryer on this one

dexter647

Some promising signs towards the end of tonight's ECM:)