Autumn/Winter FI Charts 2012/13

Wicklow Weather

20th and potential for a nice autumn storm!!!

Wolfe_IRE

In the last week of this month, the GEFS has been hinting a flood of cold air south over North America to bring an early start to winter there for some. Siberia too is affected.

Interestingly, it remains quite warm elsewhere in Russia and much of southern and eastern Europe.

Iancar29

Strangegravy

[/Quote]

Well... That would knock some leaves off the trees!

maquiladora

Check out the end of FI on the latest GFS. High pressure dominating the Atlantic. High pressure over Greenland. A northerly airflow bring snow into Scotland. -5 uppers on their way down to Ireland and the 528 dam line is already down over Ulster.





Not bad for October 27th eh?

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Right Maq, im banking that chart above, it better happen now !

Iancar29

That would fit in nicely for my October forecast

Iancar29 wrote: »

I shall get the ball rolling so!

IMT .... MAX .... MIN .... PRC .... SUN .... xx.x
9.9C 19.2C -3.6C 88% 105% 29.0 mm ....

+ Snowfall on high ground in Northern areas

Iancar29

Iancar29 wrote: »

Made me think of my First proper storm chase! , I miss Winger_PL !

Daniel2590

Strangegravy wrote: »

Well... That would knock some leaves off the trees!

Might not be any trees to knock the leaves off :pac:

cameramonkey

Daniel2590 wrote: »

Might not be any trees to knock the leaves off :pac:

what sort of wind speeds would that weather system generate over Ireland?

Daniel2590

cameramonkey wrote: »

what sort of wind speeds would that weather system generate over Ireland?

Wouldn't be able to tell you myself, maybe one of the more informed members here could :P

maquiladora

cameramonkey wrote: »

what sort of wind speeds would that weather system generate over Ireland?

Hard to tell without seeing a high resolution version of that. It would probably be sub 950mb in reality. 150kph gusts maybe.

Harps

Storms are one thing I'm really going to miss this winter if it follows the recent trend, for whatever reason Donegal seems to have taken a direct hit from every single major storm in recent years. One of my favourite weather experiences to go up to the cliffs and face into the full force of a good storm, its about time one tracked further south though so hopefully we might get lucky yet

maquiladora

If this was on the operational run and we could see a higher res chart, we'd probably see this is actually down to around the 930mb mark.

leahyl

Those vids you guys are putting up are hilarious!!:D This is a particularly good set of runs isn't it? I don't remember us getting these this time last year (and I know it's only FI) and look how the winter turned out - there wasn't one!

Iancar29

True leahly , last year was more of a northerly track with the jet stream much further north , this year though as i said alreadys reminds me alot like 2010 , with the chance of some strong lows hitting the west before hopefully a big northerly just before the end of the month with a brief mild spell then possible.

Certainly an interesting time for model watching .

With the AO in negative atm and due to recover a bit later on , ill be looking then for a reoccurrence of 2010 too of it diving then mid November to get the Winter started!

maquiladora

leahyl wrote: »

Those vids you guys are putting up are hilarious!!:D This is a particularly good set of runs isn't it? I don't remember us getting these this time last year (and I know it's only FI) and look how the winter turned out - there wasn't one!

Well we are just cherrypicking for fun. For every one of those dramatic charts there are 20 other versions of the same run with nothing like that.

Around about the 16th to the 21st seems to be the time when we'll be dealing with low pressue, but whether it will be wet and windy or very wet and windy remains to be seen.

Iancar29

Its always fun seeing graphs go off the charts ...

weatherfiend

A couple of weeks ago I heard Colm Hayes (I thinks that's who it was - came in mid sentence) reading out an article from national geographic about the jet stream being very far out into the Atlantic which was causing those terrible dust storms in Texas and if it didn't come back towards us by I think early October, we'd have a humdinger of a cold winter. Do you guys know anything about that? I have been searching for it but haven't come across it yet. I'd LOVE it to be true

maquiladora

More fun and games on the 12Z GFS.

tylercollins

How are the other models in comparison with that chart? What kind of weather would we expect? (I know it's 7 days out, I want to learn what the chart would bring)

Would I be right in saying that we would get severe Gales and lots of rain because it's coming off the Atlantic? Cold air also being pulled down from the North?

catch.23

tylercollins wrote: »

How are the other models in comparison with that chart? What kind of weather would we expect?

Would I be right in saying that we would get severe Gales and lots of rain because it's coming off the Atlantic? Cold air also being pulled down from the North?

IF that chart were to come off, it would have the capacity to do serious damage, probably violent storm force winds with a central pressure like that. However, its 1 single perturbation out of 20, all of which are run at low resolution, and it's 174hrs out, far off in FI. For those reasons I'd estimate the chances of it coming off at less than 0.1% chance.

edit: and it would bring mainly southerly winds.

tylercollins

Thanks for that catch!

Where do you view that kind of chart?

maquiladora

tylercollins wrote: »

Thanks for that catch!

Where do you view that kind of chart?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php

catch.23

The closest decent CFS charts are in mid December. First off, brief -8 850's:



Quickly disappears, but then followed by an easterly:





Unfortunately if this is anything to go by (which it isn't) there wouldn't be the depth of cold in the east to sustain it for any length. But it's nice to dream!

maquiladora

Interesting FI rolling out on the 12Z GFS. :pac:

cherryghost

maquiladora wrote: »

Interesting FI rolling out on the 12Z GFS. :pac:

Ooooh yes! Good spot! Only 8 days away :pac:

Pleasuredeath

Can we see the pic?

Iancar29

catch.23

Snow on Luqnaquilla and no where else :rolleyes: